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End of Season Position Grades - Quarterback

   

As we begin the offseason, it's a perfect time to look back at the players impact, development and future prospects.  QB is as good a place to start as any, considering the QB is drafted or signed to be the field general who leads the team.

Alex Smith - 2006 stats: 74.8 QB Rating, 257-442(58.1%) 2,890 yards 16 TDs, 16 INT, 2 rushing TDs, 36 sacks

The Good: Smith improved by leaps and bounds this year as he improved himself in all areas of the game.  He made more big plays, made fewer brutal mistakes and in general looked a little more like a #1 pick.  He led the team to a huge win at Seattle as he showed the true potential he has, whether it be a flat-footed 50-yard bomb or his ability to scramble in the pocket.

Areas to Improve: While he has improved, Alex Smith still has much to learn before he can become the true leader of this team.  I'm of the opinion that he still rolls out too much.  In college he could do that in the spread offense because the defense was slower.  However, the entire defense is fast and can track him down much easier.  He has admitted he had never played in a pro-style pocket offense before being drafted so that is an area he will likely work on in the offseason.

Smith's grade is based as much on the imrpovement he showed as it is on the actual numbers put up on the field.  Of course he was dreadful on 2005 and a 1/1 TD/INT ratio obviously will not cut it in the future.  However, the way he has embraced the Norv Turner offense leaves me excited for the future.  I'd love for Smith to turn into Joe Montana tomorrow, but that clearly won't happen because a) he's still one of the youngest guys on the roster and in the league and b) the 49ers just don't have enough offensive firepower.  As this team adds more playmakers and Alex Smith gains a greater knowledge of the the game and his role, I think you'll see his game improve every week.

2006 Grade: B- (He showed dramatic improvement, but their is still plenty of room to improve)

Trent Dilfer - 2006 stats: A couple hand offs!

Trent Dilfer's season with the 49ers can be summed up by this article in the San Francisco Examiner.  Trent Dilfer was brought in to be a mentor to Alex Smith and he did just that.  Any article about Trent Dilfer discussed his role as a mentor and how he dove into that role with gusto.  While he wasn't the on-field MVP of the team, I think he was as important off the field as anybody on the roster or on the coaching staff.  It sounded almost cliched, but I think that makes it all the more amazing how seriously he took this role.

The future has some questions in regards to retaining Dilfer.  He's done a great job as a mentor, but if Alex Smith were to get injured, is the Dilfer the guy we want coming in to play, considering how little he has played over the past year?  I'm not sure about bringing a Jake Plummer type as I still think Dilfer's mentor role is important to Smith's continued development.  I'm curious about everyone's thoughts on the backup/3rd string QB situation/

Grade: A+ (He was brought in to fill a role and he filled it better than ANYONE could have expected.  Kudos to Trent for taking the job and running with it.)

Shaun Hill: Umm...yea...sooooo...Fear the Turtle, Shaun?  Personally I would have loved to keep Cody Pickett just for the entertainment factor.  A QB on special teams is the name of the game.  There's really not a whole lot to be said about the 3rd string QB, but I figured I saw enough of him and his clipboard that I'd throw him in here.  Gotta throw him a bone as it's entirely possible he's not back next year.

Grade: Incomplete

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I think the two most important things about Alex Smith are these:
  1. He never played in a pro style offense until 2005, and he's made incredible strides in learning it as an NFL level crash course in just one and half years of starting. Don't forget that he actually got his degree in two short years. He's a smart and determined kid.
  2. Even with rookies like Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Bruce Gradkowski, and I think there was somebody else... Alex Smith was still the youngest starting quarterback in the NFL last year, and may be through even all of next year. In terms of pure age, he hasn't even reached his rookie level (hello, younger than five(?) rookies at the same position, which I find extremely heartening.
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jan 5, 2007 1:03 PM PST reply actions  

Agree
I totally agree with you.  The fact that he earned his degree in 2 years is huge because it shows not only that he's smart, but that he's willing to bust his ass to reach his goal.

As far as the offensive style, he's got the arm and the legs to make it work.  If he doesn't turn into a very quality quarterback, it won't be because he could never learn his reads or was lazy.  He's a determined young player and while he may not break records like Marino or Favre, but he will be a quality NFL quarterback.

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by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2007 1:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm a harder grader
I'd give Alex Smith a C, or maybe at best a C+.  Yes, he made dramatic improvement over the last year, but he might have set records for first-year futility last season so merely getting a QB rating of 60 would have been a dramatic improvement.  Simply put, a 74.8 QB rating is not B- level play in my opinion and that 58.1% completion percentage is inflated by all those 3 yard dumpoffs he made to Frank Gore throughout the season.  A 6.53 yards per attempt average isn't anything special either when you're not completing at least 60% of your passes.

Could Alex Smith become a good quarterback?  Absolutely.  And it would help if he had more receiving targets to choose from.  So I guess you could say I have cautious optimism for continued improvement by him.  At the same time, I definitely had higher expectations for the #1 overall draft pick and someone who got a record signing bonus.  Especially when a just-as-good or better quarterback like Aaron Rodgers was available later on in the first round.  (Yes, I'm a Golden Bear homer but I do honestly believe that to be true).

by War on Jan 5, 2007 2:18 PM PST reply actions  

Smith: C/C+
Yes, Smith did dramatically improve from an F grade last season and he definitely gets an A for effort.

The book is still out on the guy, however, though he's still quite young, so no reason to panic. He still had that deer in the headlights look a few too many times this season, though he certainly had some shining moments, particularly the 2nd game against Seattle and the 2nd half the Denver game.

After throwing well over 200 yards in each of the first 3 games he only threw 200 yards 2 more times and only once after week 6 (201 vs. GB). It seems the playcalling got a lot more conservative as the season went on, which is not normal, and the team relied more heavily on Gore after he solved his fumble problems after week 4, so it isn't all of Smith's fault, but if Smith were having a true breakout year, it's hard to believe that they would have relied on Gore so much or been so conservative, so that cuts both ways. I look for him to improve his play next year and the numbers should follow.

His season completion percentage was not bad at 58.1%. His QB rating wasn't great at 74.8, but even that was higher than V. Young, Leinart, Favre and Grossman. To be a top QB in the NFL, you have to be consistently in 85+ range. Above 95 and you're in elite company.

I can't blame Smith for not being Joe Montana, but he did have a lot more weapons than Montana did in 1981.

I am excited about his level of improvement and knowing that he is still very young gives me hope that he'll be a good pro QB yet. At this time, however, I just don't get the feeling (and it's just a gut feeling) that he'll be an elite QB like we've had in the past. That's not fair to him, but tough. I have high expectations for an SF QB and want him to be in that tradition and he was a #1 pick. I'm certainly holding out hope that I'm wrong.

I agree on Dilfer. I thought he should have come in at times this year because I didn't want Smith to continue getting pounded, but also because I thought we could have won more games with him. Dilfer is the proto-type "just don't lose it for us" QB. I like him mentoring Smith, but I don't want Smith to be one of those guys. I want him to be an annual all-pro type QB, which I think he could be.

On Shaun Hill,uh...who?

Bring back Eddie D.

by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 5, 2007 2:28 PM PST reply actions  

D+/C-
If you look at passer rating, he is #22, clearly BELOW average.  No way does he deserve a B-.  You cant grade today based on what he may do next year.  He was pretty awful in my estimation.  When your running back leads the team in receptions, he is obviously just checking down and not connecting with the first or second options.  AB was not involved the whole second half of the season....

by dmac on Jan 5, 2007 3:29 PM PST reply actions  

Grade
I don't consider Bryant a legit #1 threat and combined with the rest of the receiving corp, Smith's receiving options were quite limited, aside from Gore.  Personally, I wish Eric Johnson had become more involved in the offense.  But in reality he was throwing too a bunch of possession receivers, one of whom happens to have a little speed.

I think the grade was inflated a little to reflect the learning curve and the age.  The fact that we have one of the youngest QBs in the NFL is not emphasized enough.  I have absolutely no doubt that Alex Smith will become a solid starting QB that will not make many stupid mistakes and will make plays when needed.  If the 49ers have a great run game to support him, I think Alex Smith could turn into a statistical version of Tom Brady (late game heroics not being considered).  If you discount the late game magic, Tom Brady is a very solid QB who can make things happen and is smart enough to figure out the game.  After seeing morons like Ryan Leaf and Jim Druckenmiller, I'm excited to have a QB that clearly has a good head on his shoulders and is clearly smart enough to figure things out.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Jan 5, 2007 3:37 PM PST reply actions  

Man...
I give Shaun kind a D- for looking like such a Doof in his team photo.
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jan 6, 2007 8:42 PM PST reply actions  

Excuse me
Shaun Hill. I know where "kind" came from, but I'd rather not say.
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jan 6, 2007 8:43 PM PST up reply actions  

not sure about my grade
I was really impressed with his growth but he continued to make some plays and some throws that are simply unacceptable at this level, even for a 2nd year player.  I'll give him a C+/B-.

I disagree about him rolling out too much.  I think he is best when on the run and it looks to me that his throws are more accurate when he's moving.  Defenses were able to pressure him too easily when he sat in the pocket, and designed rollouts allowed him time to find a receiver and throw.  They also cut down the amount of field he was working with, meaning finding the right guy was easier (less options, quicker to go through the reads).  Rolling out also gave him some opportunities to use his legs, and it made throwing the ball away easier since he was closer to the sideline.

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Jan 7, 2007 10:22 AM PST reply actions  

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