49ers-Giants: Bring on Eli

by Fooch on Oct 16, 2007 10:51 PM PDT in News Comment 12 comments

Considering the state of the 49ers defense the past few years, I always dreaded the potential mismatches other teams could create with their offense. The 49ers secondary was ravaged by the salary cap as we had practice squad garbage out there week after week. Well times have changed and I could not be more excited about the defensive matchups this weekend against the Giants. Obviously wWe're all curious about what the 49ers offense will bring to the table this week. However, if we assume the status quo, we'll need the defense to make more plays and possibly even score us some points. This is one week where it just might be possible.

Eli Manning
Fooch's exhibit #1. First off, Eli Manning is NOT a bad quarterback. He can make plays, but he obviously is no Peyton. He ranks 19th in DPAR and DVOA and is averaging 1.3 interceptions per game. While he's got some quality weapons to throw to between Plexiglass, Shockey and Toomer, he just can't seem to take the next step in his maturation as a quarterback. He's got decent statistics this year, but he just doesn't seem like a guy a fan can trust week to week. I've exchanged some question with Big Blue View, and that was definitely one of them. I'm curious what a Giants fan has to say about the topic.

Plaxico Burress
What can you say about Plaxico. He has manned up this year and is likely going to shatter his career high in touchdowns while possibly reaching career highs in receptions. The only thing that could stop that from happening, slow him this week is injury. He's had a problem ankle, which has kept him out of practice for most of the week prior to games. With a short week now, I'm curious to see how effective he'll be. Of course, the 49ers will also be blanketing him with Nate Clements, who's been money in the bank so far. I mentioned the Football Outsider stat on defenses versus certain types of receivers and the 49ers remain #1 against #1 receivers. I'm actually more excited about this matchup than possibly any other this Sunday.

Running Game
The Giants running game is evolving into quite the little platoon. Against Atlanta, Brandon Jacobs rushed 13 times, Reuben Droughns 14 times and Derrick Ward 8 times. The 35 carries resulted in 188 yards and 2 touchdowns. Of course, the Atlanta Falcons don't have Patrick Willis patrolling the field along with walk-year beast Marques Douglas on the line. Aside from the Steelers game, the 49ers have played well against the run for the most part. The Giants have plenty of passing weapons, but the running game has been the key to their success in recent years. The 49ers will once again have to force Manning to try and beat them in the air, obviously no easy task.

So any early predictions on the defense's performance as far as turnovers, defensive points, etc...?

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49ers @ Giants

Obviously the Niners will not abandon the run any time soon. And with all the talk about our poor offensive production; the Giants are probably expecting us to come out firing. That is why I think we are going to come out and smash them in the mouth with the running game. My only hope is that we get Norris in the backfield to lead the way for Gore.

As for the defense we have got to generate more turnovers. You asked for predictions. Well, here is one, we will get crazy pressure on Eli and Patrick Willis will get his first touchdown, be it off a pick or fumble recovery, afterall I am no Nostradomus.

Man, in the first couple of games I remember seeing our defense, pre-snap, running around the line of scrimage like they were discumbobulated, but really they were not, they were merely disguising their true intention. I hope to see more of that this week.
Boomshakalaka!!!

jfainsf49

by jfainsf49 on Oct 17, 2007 9:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

D-movement

I completely agree with the idea that the defense should move around a lot more pre-snap. In fact, why more teams don't do this all the time is hard to understand. If I was a quarterback lining up to take the snap while scounting the defensive formation, my first thought would be blitzes and protection, and my second thought would be pass routes and receiver coverage. If the linebackers are moving around that's going to be a huge distraction and I'd spend more of those precious few seconds before the snap worrying about where the pressure will come from and less about the secondary. From a defensive perspective, that's always a good thing.

by jaytierney on Oct 17, 2007 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depends

I agree that the "confusion" it causes can be a good thing. The confusion goes beyond just what the QB sees, but also what the center sees. The center is usually the one that calls the blocking/line audibles, so making him unsure of where the pressure will come from is definitely a plus.

However, if the team is going into more of a "bend-but-don't-break" pass defense (something like a 4-2-5), like the 49ers were doing against Seattle, the pre-snap movement is a little unrealistic. If you're playing the pass, you don't want the guys you WANT to cover the receiver/TE/backs to be out of position that forces them to take the wrong angles.

In the base defense (which is what the 49ers will probably run a lot of this week), though, movement is definitely possible and should be encouraged in a 3-4 scheme.

by sfgfan on Oct 17, 2007 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Predictions?!

We don't need no stinkin' predictions! We just need a win.

In all seriousness, though, I think this could be the week the 49ers defense could step it up. They'll be playing in the base defense again, which means they'll be more able to disguise their blitzes better (and run more blitzes in general). The secondary doesn't have much to worry about in the way of a 3rd WR, so Clements and Harris should be able to do a fine job.

The guy that scares me most about that team is Shockey. The 49ers will NOT be able to put 8 in the box very often if he's on the field all the time, as one of those safeties will probably have to help Banta-Cain/Navies cover Shockey. It's definitely possible to shut him down, but it's also just as likely he will kill the defense.

Naturally, Willis will lead the team in tackles again (especially if the Giants carry the ball 30+ times again). Clements should be able to keep Burress in check, but Harris is a little bit more of a question mark. The matchup(s) that we all should keep an eye on is Shockey vs. whoever.

Turnover-wise, it's quite possible Eli throws three picks this game. It depends on who his targets are, really. If he's going after Clements and Harris, expect picks. If he attacks the LBs and safeties by going to Shockey, the risk of turnover will reduce dramatically.

All in all, I just hope the defense puts up the same effort it has most of the season. This is an offense it HAS to contain if it wants to be one of the league's elite defenses.

by sfgfan on Oct 17, 2007 9:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Predicitons Huh?

It's so hard not to let your "optomistic bias" get in the way. IWe all want the Niners to do so well, so badly that sometimes i feel like we are willing them to a victory.

Screw the realist side! I'm expecting the defense to get 2-3 turnovers, with one getting us a touchdown by either getting our offense in the redzone, or by the defense scoring themselves.

I do think that we need to attack through the air, via Davis and Lelie. Use Lelie to stretch the field, and Davis to own the middle. Battle and D-Jack can continue to be 5-15 yard posession receivers. They have a fairly decent linebacking group, that stuff the holes well, so maybe we can catch the overly aggressive pass rush with some screens, or sweeptoss runs.

Score: 49ers 24 Giants 17

by SLC49er on Oct 17, 2007 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Prediction

The defense keeps us under the 9.5 point spread. That's the only prediction I care about or to make.

by methodrampage on Oct 17, 2007 4:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

IMHO

The defense will be so good that it will retroactively win us the last three games.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2007 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Did I say IMHO?

Oops, what I meant to say was, IMWF.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2007 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would...

... would retroactively winning only the last game remove the "WF" status?

by sfgfan on Oct 17, 2007 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

I guess it would just be a regular fantasy at that point...

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Oct 17, 2007 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prediction?

Yes prediction.

PAIN.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Oct 17, 2007 4:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Giants front 7 and other matchups...

I'm really not like the 49ers offensive line vs the Giants defensive front 7 matchup for the 49ers.This 49ers offensive line has been probally not the worst but one of the worst in the league this season even know i think they have potential to gel and start getting something together right now i don't like this matchup because of the extreme pressure the Giants front 7 puts on other team's qb's and offensive lines, With Strahan and Osi Umenyiora this might be a nightmare for the 49ers offensive line or they finally put something together we will see but right now i'm not liking that matchup.

Which matchup do i like for the 49ers? I like the matchup with Nate Clements and Walt Harris going against Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer and i think this will be Plaxico's first game this season without a TD (there's a prediction) and this will be big because Eli has been playing really well this season and if you take away his recievers without Tiki i don't know how the Giants have been playing running the ball this season, they did run the ball pretty well in the 2nd half against the falcons but against this 49ers defense i don't see there running game going very far..

This is easilly the biggest game of the season so far and if Alex Smith and Vernon Davis come back healthy by than the offense better get something going or all hell will break lose.

by rimrock101 on Oct 17, 2007 8:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs