Record setting day

by jfainsf49 on Dec 4, 2007 3:15 PM PST

[EDITOR'S NOTE 3:15PM] - Consider this the first thread to start a preview discussion. When I get a chance I'll get the Scouts Inc preview, but this is a decent start. Anybody think we can contain Adrian Peterson or does he blow up?

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The Niners can win the upcoming game against Minnesota if they can minimize their mental errors.

One problem I see for the Niners this game isn't so much Adrian Peterson as it is the Viking's running game as a whole. The Vikings have rushed well without AP and it all comes back to their most valuable o-lineman--Steve Hutchinson.

The Niners run defense has been less than average, to say the least, giving up over 120yds a game. It is(one of)my fear(s)that the Niners will face a running game that they cannot stop.

Again, I think the Niners can win but the Vikings will set some rushing records come Sunday.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Patrick Willis vs. Adrian Peterson

I'm calling the defensive win in the battle between those two! (calling... hoping... same thing)

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down. Over and over. / My Blog, For Writers

by howtheyscored on Dec 4, 2007 3:10 PM PST 0 recs

Can the Vikings pass?

The Viking's pass offense is second to last in the league (naturally, the 49ers would be in last). The 49ers have quite the possibility of stacking almost completely against the run (one of the rare opportunities this season), and it may pay off.

I don't think the 49ers will allow them to break any kind of records. They're not going to gouge the 49ers defense (not if Willis has anything to say about it) for 300 yards rushing or anything like that. I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up with 120-160 yards. On that token, though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings happened to stumble either.

by sfgfan on Dec 4, 2007 4:52 PM PST 0 recs

Look harder

Why do people keep saying that the 49ers rush defense is so bad? It's not.

The 49ers offense is awful, and the rush defense has suffered as a direct result. When your team leads the league in 3-and-outs, it means that your defense is going to be on the field a whole lot. When you don't score points, and your offense is the least threatening unit in the league, teams are going to be up early and often - resulting in a ton of carries.

Statistically, the niners are 26th in the league in "rush defense" - that is, if you go by yardage. But with these factors taken into account, you have to take a second look to find the truth.

The niners are actually 7th in the NFL in defensive yards per carried allowed. That's pretty damn good! Look further at some of the backs we've faced: Steven Jackson (twice), Willie Parker, Willis McGahee, Reggie Bush, and the then-lethal rushing attack that the NYG packed. You can Add 2x Shaun Alexander and 2x Edgerrin James to that list if you'd like - but I don't think they're nearly as good as they were. Regardless, the niners have faced a lot of good backs this year in games where the other team fed those backs a lot of carries. And a 3.8 YPC allowed average for the year is more than satisfactory.

I know it may sound a bit overplayed at this point - but the 49ers horrendous offense is, in fact, largely to blame for the moderate-to-poor ranking of this team's defense.

by shleckothegecko on Dec 4, 2007 6:10 PM PST 0 recs

It's all time of possession

The opposition is going to pile up yardage if they've got the ball 35-40 minutes a game. I've always thought the total yardage isn't as good a measure as yards-per-attempt.

Plus, if your team is scoring the opposition will tend to abandon the run.

Football may be subdivided into offense, defense and special teams, but how one part of the team performs will really affects the stats of the other parts.

by Bob In Pacifica on Dec 4, 2007 8:56 PM PST up 0 recs

Re. Look harder...

but its so hard to look.

I have said before that I am not a big stat guy.

However, I have seen close to every play this year and that is what I am basing my judgement on.

Your argument is sound. But consider this. The Niners have not given up a huge run all year, if memory serves. That has a lot to do with the low YPC avgerage, which is good, there is no denying that.

But to think that teams are running to keep the lead is a fallacy. Teams are running because they can. I looked back at the game stats and the Niners have given up 100+ in 8 or 9 games so far. I would even argue that we went against a banged-up Jackson in week 2 and a banged-up Alexander in week 4. To say the least, the Niners have been inconsistent in stopping the run. Some of the problems may go back to lousy offense but certainly not all. At times the defense has been unable to get off the field.

I think it is clear that Nolan has too much condfidence in the defense and not enough in the offense.

Hostler the Horrible

by jfainsf49 on Dec 5, 2007 8:16 AM PST up 0 recs

not giving up big plays

doesn't that show that the run defense is pretty good?

In all fairness though, maybe they're more in the middle. They don't allow a lot of yards per carry but they give up a lot of yards total - which means they are probably more like an average defense rather than really good or really bad. Here's how I see it though - this is a good defense, but we've had trouble in our first possession and late in games. We typically don't give up big plays, but we don't force a lot of 3 and outs either. Teams aren't biting off big chunks of yardage in single plays, but they are able to chip away. 3 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards, you have a first down.

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Dec 5, 2007 9:37 AM PST up 0 recs

Purple haze all in my brain

Your are right on. I escpecially like the last 3 sentences. Well said.

The defense is pretty good. I am not going to argue that. I like the defense as far as personnel. I think it is few key players away from being a top 10 defense.

That isn't to say that some coaching changes aren't in order. Because they are. And the person that decided to blitz N. Clements on a 3rd and 18(against Atlanta)is responsible for keeping the defense on the field so freaking long. That guy and the line coach, who hasn't taught his guys to play with ice water in their veins, need to go back-to-from-wherever-which-it-is that they came...ahemm...sorry for the rant.

Unless the defense can strum a different tune Sunday, we on-lookers will be left in a purple haze.

Public acknowledgement:source: Jimi Hendrix

Hostler the Horrible

by jfainsf49 on Dec 5, 2007 11:10 AM PST up 0 recs

I don't know....

The new defensive line coach has seemed to get this defensive line to over-achieve quite a bit this year. He has also helped Isaac Sopoaga make it seem like he's finally coming around the corner. Remember, a 3-4 defensive line's primary job is not to rush the QB, but to take up space. I think they've gone beyond that. Tomsula, the defensive line coach, has done a very solid job so far this year with what he has to work with.

The loss of Manny Lawson has hurt this defense a lot more than many people give him credit for. He is still a ways away from being anything close to what Julian Peterson is, but he has been showing a lot of improvement and continued promise.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: one blitz does a drive not make. You can't fault a defensive coordinator for being aggressive. This is especially true in third and long situations, where you KNOW the other team is going to pass, so you get guys to pin their ears back and go. Manusky, the defensive coordinator, is responsible for all of the playcalling on defense. I think he's just as responsible for the defensive improvement as Nolan and Singletary are. You don't shoot guys down because they make one call that hurt the team (whether or you believe it was the right or wrong call) when the entire body of work has been pretty darn good..

With the current personnel (i.e. fillers at NT, strong-side OLB, and unhealthy DBs), the defense has turned on the heat lately, and that's nothing short of awesome. Wouldn't it be nice if they gave up less yards? Sure. Of course, it would be. But they've done a solid job of keeping this offense in the game all year long (even winning a game for the team), and they're STILL improving. Parys Haralson and Patrick Willis are both learning on the job, while Clements has proven to be a solid playmaker.

by sfgfan on Dec 5, 2007 11:22 AM PST up 0 recs

Re. I don't know

You make a nice case for the defense. And perhaps I should move on and get over the ill-timed blitz call, as I have beat that dead horse for weeks now.

But I stick by my prediction that the Vikings will rack up some major yardage this week.

I don't like being negative all the time but this is how I see it playing out.

Going into the game the Niners will be expecting run. The Niners will be so eager to stop the run that they will get sucked up by the play action and get beat deep on the long ball. The Vikings will go up early and then lean heavily on the run. And if the Niners choose to stack the box with 8 guys, it won't matter because the Vikings will adjust accordingly and the Niners will adjust nothing.

Hostler the Horrible

by jfainsf49 on Dec 5, 2007 1:28 PM PST up 0 recs

Vikings, passing?

I made this point earlier: the Vikings can't pass. They've had the running game all year, and yet their passing game isn't going past anyone else (being ranked second to last). If you also take into consideration that their QB may not be very good, and their WRs are either not good or very inexperienced, the 49ers defense has the advantage against the pass (even if they stack the box).

by sfgfan on Dec 5, 2007 3:03 PM PST up 0 recs

Run blitz

Okay, so the Vikes cannot pass. And Nolan is likely to be calling the shots, as reported and as I just read in your dairy.

What do you expect from Nolan in terms of defensive play calling? Will it be offensive? Conservative? Will he call the run blitz in favor of the regular blitz, if he blitzes at all? Can you explain any differences between a run and pass blitz? I figure the objective of the pass blitz is to get the qb and run blitz target the rb. But I figure there are some subtle differences at the line and what not. Can you offer any insight?

Hostler the Horrible

by jfainsf49 on Dec 6, 2007 7:14 AM PST up 0 recs

My thoughts.

Before I answer your question about what effect Mike Nolan has on the game plan and playcalling, I'll try to explain what I understand the difference is between run blitzing and a blitz that targets the pass rusher.

As you pointed out, in a pass blitz, the main objective is to attack the QB. Generally, this is done by overloading one particular aspect of the pass protection, be it a particular player or a particular side of the line. Overloading can cause tons of miscommunications and missed assignments (as we see with the 49ers almost weekly).

In a run blitz, the players aren't necessarily targeting the running back. From what I understand, the players attack a gap, where each blitzer (LB or S) is assigned a particular gap to blitz and clog. Naturally, a run blitz against a pass play can sometimes result in a sack, but it is generally used to clog up what would be a running back's running lanes.

Now that that's out of the way, what do I think Nolan's effect on the defense will be? I don't think it'll be much different than what we see. Manusky, while his own man, is running that defense the way Nolan wants it to be run. Personnel aside, I think that if you compare this year's defense to the defense in the latter weeks of last season (when Nolan took over playcalling from Billy Davis), they are pretty similar. The team blitzes, but not constantly (as the LBs are still learning to play at this level). The DB blitzes and safety in the box (Michael Lewis) is something Nolan was doing last year, as well.

So long story short, I don't think it'll make THAT big of a difference on how the defense performs. The one thing that could be affected is the overall management of the game. However, with Paraag Marathe, the 49ers Director of Football Operations, has done a pretty good job of helping Nolan with the game management, so Nolan isn't doing it by himself (as he had the first two years).

I hope this all made sense.

by sfgfan on Dec 6, 2007 8:40 AM PST up 0 recs

It makes sense to me...

and thanks for the knowledge.

Hostler the Horrible

by jfainsf49 on Dec 6, 2007 10:34 AM PST up 0 recs

The defense is okay

I may be very down on the everything connected to the offense, but I think that the defensive personnel and their play this year has been pretty good. Are they the best in the league? Hell, no, but I think that they're pretty good. Both their run and pass defense stats would be better if they weren't on the field as much.

Like I've said, how the one part of the team plays affects the stats of the other parts of the team. For example, the Pats' defense is good, but their stats are distorted because the offense is so good.

by Bob In Pacifica on Dec 5, 2007 8:58 PM PST up 0 recs

P Willy vs AP

This is the mach up of the future. Ironically, the two are already among the top 3 in their positions. AP will have an unfair advange due to a stud o line but I want to see if AP will ever get past PW. I doubt it. P willy is a complete beast and if he steps up his game even more, than he may even earn a few votes dor defensive player of the year. As for the game, it will probably show how badly we need a NT to clogg the run holes. Luckly Okam should be avalible in the draft as long as denver does not take him. The good ews about this draft is that there are 5 or 6 WR that have first round talent and one or two will go into the second round. I say we roll the dice and get Okam in the first and just hope that there is one of them left in the second. FIY not saying he will leave or that we should get him but randy moss will be a free agent after this year

by montasmob69 on Dec 4, 2007 11:13 PM PST 0 recs

rookies =\

I don't mean to put you on the spot, but Willis and AP being "among the top 3 in their positions"? Uh. No.

I absolutely love Patrick Willis...I think he's going to be the cornerstone of the 49ers defense for the next 4 or 5 years, primarily because his pursuit is amazing, and I've only seen him miss one tackle all year. However, he's still a rookie, and if you really watch him, he'll show it to you.

Teams often take advantage of his aggressive play and catch him on play action and decoy routes - leaving Willis out of position on a whole lot of pass plays. And even when he doesn't bite on the fakes, he's still got a lot of room for improvement in his coverage skills. He has a tendency to pay too much attention to the backfield when he's in man coverage, allowing guys to slip past him with quick routes and soft drops into coverage holes. So while he's a great MLB, and a guy who may well develop into a multi-pro-bowl caliber player, he's still too young to even be considered a "complete" player...let alone one of the league's top 3.

And as for Adrian Peterson...it's still WAY too early to grant him such a title. If you hadn't noticed during the last 2 weeks, the Vikings are a great running team with or without him. Simply stated, the Vikings O-line is stellar at run blocking. They've got the strength and speed to open up holes, and the cohesiveness and teamwork that allows them to avoid making the mistakes that get their backs into trouble. In my opinion, though I don't mean to take anything away from the guy, AP is an example of a good player taking advantage of a great situation. Give him another 3 or 4 years before we start comparing him to guys like LT.

by shleckothegecko on Dec 6, 2007 6:01 PM PST up 0 recs

You Can't Give It To Him...

...But he IS in the top 3 or 4 of his position. Adrian Peterson, even after missing two and a half games, still leads the league in rushing yards. I'd put him up there now, because RBs just don't stay that good for that long. They either stretch out their career by learning to avoid the hits and diminish their performance, or take the yardage and the hits and go out with a career ending injury earlier than most other positions. LT was the cream of the crop last season, and this season he's putting up rookie numbers. I wouldn't grant AP top 3 or 4 of all time, but this season it is absolutely undeniable.

P-Willy is a little more complicated, mainly because the his team isn't conducive to showing how dangerous he can be, but seeing how well he performs on an absolute embarrasment of a squad tells me he might well be one of the greatest of all time, but I agree with you that it's hard to crown him just yet. If P-Willy were to start for the Patriots this week, I would bet he could solve all their run D woes from the past couple of weeks singlehandedly.

by LA49er on Dec 7, 2007 4:30 PM PST up 0 recs

Thanks Fooch!

Thanks for the the front page.

Hostler the Horrible

by jfainsf49 on Dec 5, 2007 8:19 AM PST 0 recs

btw

for those of you who continue to say that the 49ers run defense is sub-par, and that teams run on us "because they can" and not because they are up by 17 and playing a lifeless offensive squad, here are some more stats for you:

NFL rank in rush yards allowed ~ team ~ carries against per game ~ (ypc avg)

32.MIA 34.9 (4.3)
31.DEN 32.6 (4.6)
30.OAK 30.8 (4.8)
29.NYJ 33.2 (4.3)
28.CLE 28.4 (4.6)
27.CHI 29.6 (4.4)
26.SF 32.8 (3.8)
25.HOU 27.2 (4.5)
24.ATL 28.7 (4.3)
23.CIN 28.1 (4.2)
22.BUF 27.5 (4.2)
21.KC 28.7 (4.2)
20.SD 27.8 (4.2)
19.STL 26.4 (4.1)
18.IND 27.1 (4.0)
17.CAR 29.8 (3.6)

You have to go all the way to 17th in "rush defense" (about middle-of-the pack) before you find a team that's got a ypc average allowed lower than that of the 49ers. And you'll notice that the 3.8 there sticks out like a sore thumb in that stat line - suggesting that teams aren't exactly having tremendous success against us with the run... but since we're #1 in the league in defensive plays from scrimmage, the yardage stats have become a bit skewed and imbalanced due to a ball-control, up-by-17-and-we-might-as-well-run-the-clock kind of mentality, and the resulting much larger sample size.

by shleckothegecko on Dec 6, 2007 6:26 PM PST 0 recs

Wow

These Niners suck. I get your point and I agree with you, but seeing those numbers up there still stings a little, even if they do have a perfectly logical explanation.

by LA49er on Dec 7, 2007 4:33 PM PST up 0 recs