"Space-Eaters"

by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 10:49 AM PDT in NFL Draft

[EDITOR'S NOTE] - I've posted a table in the right column just below the UPDATED poll. Each name is linked to the story at Field Gulls or the story at the respective SB Nation site

In the mock draft 1.0 thread, nothinlikethetown made an excellent point about great defenses being built on the D-line:

Those teams are built on their D-lines

Pittsburgh: NT Casey Hampton 19th Overall 2001

Baltimore: NT Haloti Ngata 12th Overall 2006

also

New England: DE Richard Seymore 6th Overall 2001, NT Vince Wilfork 21st Overall 2004, DE Ty Warren 13th Overall 2003

San Diego Chargers: NT Jamal Williams 32nd Overall 1998, DE Luis Casrillo 28th Overall 2005, DE Igor Olhansky 35th Overall 2004

The best 3-4 schemes in football are as good as they are because they are anchored by top flight first round defensive linemen. "Space eaters" are first round picks. They are one of the most saught after things in the draft. Alan Branch is a "space eater."

I'm not saying that linebackers aren't important, or that Ray Lewis isn't the best defensive player in Baltimore. I am saying that I'd build a defense around Tommie Harris before Brian Urlacher. I'm saying that Willis doesn't do us much good if we don't have anyone to keep blockers off him and unfortunately, that is the weakest and thinnest part of our defense. I don't see how the niners can go any way other than DL in the 1st round.

This would make either Branch or Okoye the type of guy we want to take in the first round. I've read that Okoye is more of a 4-3 DT, but when a guy is 19 years old, I think he can be molded into a 3-4 DT. Any thoughts on moving up a few spots to make sure we get Branch or Okoye? I'm going to look into that because I really getting one of those big DTs would be key.

We're using the draft value chart as a guide for deals. You figure Quinn and Adrian Peterson will go soon maybe trying to deal up to like #7? We could look at Branch, Okoye or even Jamaal Anderson. Thoughts? I'll put some trade options together.

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Trade Idea

Ok...we could trade up to the Vikings #7 overall pick. The 7 is worth 1,500 points. If we offer our first, second 3rd(#97 overall) and last fourth (#135 overall), we could come up with 1498.5 points. If we did that, we'd be at 7. How would you rank Anderson, Branch and Okoye then?

Of course there's also a fairly decent chance that one of those 3 is there at 11, in which case we could save the picks to potentially deal from the 2nd to the first. And even if one of those 3 isn't there, Carriker or Willis is still an option at 11.

Thoughts?

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 10:57 AM PDT reply actions

free safety

If we would trade up to 7 Laron Landry is a must....this kid is a total stud and he could be our franchise safety for a long time to come....he would make our secondary complete.

by Qbgetter13 on Mar 31, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Landry

Landry is definitely a guy we could build around...with some of our signings and whatnot I think he falls more into the best player available mode...then you have to decide, is he better than a guy like Branch? Guess it depends in part on what you think of the work ethic stories.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't trade

While 3-4 D's are built on the D-Line, it doesn't mean we have to go out and make a move upwards to do so. The Chargers are a good example here, they built their line at the end of the 1st round and the start of the second round. I think we could be just as well off taking Willis or Carriker in round one and Tank Tyler in round two as we would be taking Branch in the first and trying to another need in the second.

I also just don't think Okoye is NT in any way, shape or form. He's either an end in the 3-4 or a NG/3 technique in the 4-3. Asking him to bulk up would be a mistake, and would potential increase the chances of him failing. I've been an Okoye supporter for a long time, but I'm beginning to think he's not a good fit here.

I'm on board the Willis bandwagon after some initial resistance. Grabbing Tyler in the second and then a guy like Ryan McBean or Kareem Brown for a DE spot along with Willis might be the best bet for the future of our defense.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 11:28 AM PDT reply actions

hmmm...

The arguments that you can find great 3-4 d-lineman in the 2nd round and that we should get a WR in the later rounds because of Colston make no sense. Zach Thomas was taken in the 5th round and Donnie Edwards in the 4th. Every position has great finds in the later rounds, by no means does that mean we should shy away from WR's or D-lineman in the first 2 rounds because the saints got a steal in colston or if the Chargers have built there line in the late first and 2nd round. To me we have a greatest need on the D-line, Branch is the ideal player to play NT in our scheme. Two weeks ago everybody here would have given their left testicle to see branch fall to 11 or even trade up a few spots to grab him.

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions

exactly

Willis runs a great 40 and suddenly he's at the top of everyone's list. If Branch were gone at 11 I could see taking Willis, but I think Branch is the best option for us.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Disagree

It's not like Willis wasn't the top rated ILB before the combine and came out of nowhere because of his 40 time. I think the combine only helped to solidify Willis' ranking, not drastically change teams' perception of him. The more I've read about him, the more I like him. I think he could be a special player, and one worthy of our first round pick.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok

I can't say I made most of the arguments you're attaching to my post. You can find a steal at any position in any round. Previously yes, everyone would have jumped all over Branch. That was before there were so many questions surrounding him. Back then, we thought there was no chance he'd be available at our pick, now it seems like a virtual certainity. Things change.

My point with Chargers was simply it's not necessary to trade 3 or 4 picks to move up to land Branch, we could wait on Tyler in the second or even Paul Soliai in the 4th or 5th. With 8 picks in the first four rounds, this is where we build depth for the next few years. Think back to some of the great drafts in the 80's the Niners had, they'd pull out 4 or 5 starters/key players each year. You don't do that by trading away 3 or 4 picks to grab one guy.

To me, adding Tyler and Willis to the defense is a huge boost at two spots, both could potentially start this year. It just seems like the way to go.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions

3 or 4 picks to move up and get branch?

we would only need to trade our 1st and a 3rd to move up to say 8th. As for the 4 or 5 starters on defense; We don't need 4 or 5 starters on defense in this draft, we need 1 or 2 starters with 2 or 3 other guys adding depth.

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Again

You're skipping parts of my comments, then using only what you want. I never said 4 or 5 starters on defense, I said 4-5 starters/key players. That would include starters on offense and defense, key backups/depth, and special teams. I don't really feel like going and finding the lists of players the Niners added throughout the draft over the years in the 80's, but in this day and age the draft is how you build your team to be successful. Just by your figures, we need 3-5 players just on defense, trading extra picks away won't help that goal.

As for the 3 to 4 picks, read Fooch's first comment in this thread. He advocates trading 3 picks for the Vikings #7 pick. The Skins are shopping their pick at #6, it would likely take 4 picks to trade to their spot. Since Atlanta traded with Houston to move UP in the draft, I don't see them wanting to drop back lower than they were originally so your idea for the #8 spot doesn't seem likely.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions

trading options

I was just throwing an option out there to generate discussion. After posting that I realized that based on how things will fall, we'll be able to get what we want at 11.

The question now is, would we consider trading up from the 2nd round to late in the first to grab a Meachem type receiver? Again, I'm not saying we should do this one way or the other. Rather I just want to see what people think about our options. The 49ers have a ton of draft picks and could conceivably trade up without hurting their ability to get several quality players.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Right

Yeah, we could trade a pick or two and it not hurt, but having 8 picks in the first four rounds seems like an opportunity to really help to build the foundation for the next 5-10 years. I think with the 10 picks we have total, we could grab two solid WR's late, a starting ILB, two DL starters, an OL starter or top backup, a backup to Gore, an OLB to pair with Banta-Cain opposite Lawson, and another defensive back. With multiple needs, hanging onto the picks and adding depth seems like the way to go.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions

One more question.

If we draft Willis, who are you going to sit? Smith, who should revert back to 04-05 form after he gets his eye fixed or Moore who is imporving every year? We have two guys who can have 100+ tackle seasons in the middle. I see a much bigger need at NT and the D-line.

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

dline/lb

I still think Branch is the best option there...If the top guys are gone, Carriker is a guy we could work into the defensive end position to succeed BY for years to come.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Smith

The general feeling seems to be Smith, since he's 32 not really a guy who factors into the future of the franchise too much. At his age, I'd say it's just as likely he stays at his 2006 level or worse as it is for him to return to his 2004 or 2005 form.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions

huh?

Smith could barely see out of his left eye almost all of last season. Smith just got an extension last offseason, I think Nolan believes he will be very productive for the neext couple years.

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Extension

Yeah, that's the surest way to tell if a player is in a team's plans in the NFL huh? With non-guaranteed contracts, extensions are handed out left and right in the NFL, usually to gain cap space. From what I saw at ninercaphell.com Smith is signed through 2008. His salary is $4.8 million this year, nearly $5.5 million in 2008. Those are big numbers for a linebacker in his 30's.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Smith

He may not be in his prime but with the corrected vision he could still be one hell of a contributor (not necessarily a reason to NOT take Willis of course).

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Possibly

Smith could also slow down this year after 10 seasons as an NFL linebacker. My main point is having Smith on the roster isn't a reason not to draft Willis as enut21 was saying.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

hmm

Where did I say that Smith on the roster is a reason to not draft Willis. I was just pointing out that we have 2 ILB who can be very veery productive for the next 2 seasons, and we have bigger needs elsewhere. I like Willis as a player and would not be upset if we drafted him, I just think that Branch is a much better pick and D-line is a biggeer need at the moment. Don't put words in my mouth.

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Words

Guess we're even then.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

100+ tackles

That is probably one of the most overrated stats to evaluate a linebacker with. Over the course of 16 games, a linebacker can get 100 tackles by averaging just over 6 tackles a game. That isn't necessarily a whole lot.

I'm with those who think Smith is actually on the decline. Corrected vision aside, you can't honestly believe he's going to be as fast or quick next season as he was two-three seasons ago?

by sfgfan on Apr 1, 2007 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Agree with Okoye not fitting

I agree completely with Okoye not fitting in the 3-4 scheme. Okoye is the best 4-3 DT in the draft. In fact, he's probably the best 4-3 DT in the last 2 drafts. But he's not a NT, nor is he a natural 3-4 DE. Although he might eventually turn into a good DE, I'm not sure we want to start this experiment with our 11th pick. We need someone who can contribute immediately.
The 2 ideal NT is 1a) Alan Branch, 1b) Tank Tyler. Yes, I think that highly of Tyler. He's just a bull.
What about trading down? Trade down a few spots and grab Carriker? With Carriker and Tyler, you're 2/3 way to solving DL and get more picks.

by ALottOfSense on Mar 31, 2007 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions

trade down

I'm intrigued by the idea of trading down. I'm gonna look into it but not super likely, depending on what's where.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

According to DraftTek,

Carolina looks to be the spot we'd need to trade down to and still be able to grab Carriker. With Dan Morgan a concussion waiting to happen, Willis would be a good idea for the Panthers. DraftTek has Willis going 12th to Buffalo, so moving to our spot should assure the Panthers of grabbing him.

Since compensation aren't allowed to be traded, I'm guessing our pick listed as 186 in the 6th round would actually be pick 172 on the draft value chart. The value of pick #172 and pick #11 totals 1272.6, the Panthers pick #14 and pick #83(3rd round) totals 1275. I'd think those numbers are close enough to get a deal done.

The other option in trading down would be add more picks and grab maybe a WR, as there aren't any 3-4 DL really worthy of a late 1st round pick. If we're trading down for defense, Carolina looks to be the spot. Otherwise WR would seem to be the direction we'd have to go if we traded down any farther than pick 14.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Interestin

That's an interesting option...We get an extra 3rd rounder and still get a talent we would want in the first round for basically a 6th round pick...interesting.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Cap Space

How much do we have left? Is this going to be a problem with 10 picks?

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions

good point

One of the draw backs of trading down would be the extra picks taking more money...gonna have to look into that.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Branch and Tyler

http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/branch_alan

http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/tyler_demarcus

Looking at their prospect profiles on NFL.com.

Tyler looks like he might have big problems off the field. It says he was ejected twice last year, once for spitting in a players face. Also he might struggle with a complicated playbook and has trouble motiviting himself. He is the space-eater that we have talked about though.

They say that Branch can also play DE in the 3-4 and that he may be better suited there. Yet they also say branch can tie-up multiple blockers and engulf the ball carrier in the middle.

What do you guys think after looking at their profiles?

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 1:23 PM PDT reply actions

A bit off topic but...

when are we starting the SBN Mock Draft? I really expected to see at least the Raiders pick by now. Any word Fooch?

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 1:49 PM PDT reply actions

hmm

The SBN mock draft is at he 5th pick right now.

by enut21 on Mar 31, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry

I was going to post up the picks. Check out fieldgulls.com for each team's individual picks. I'll plan on posting something a little more frequently with pick updates. So far:

Jamarcus Russell
Calvin Johnson (Tampa Bay traded spots with Detroit)
Joe Thomas
Gaines Adams
Levi Brown

Those last 2 surprised me...

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry

Only following the link provided here. Didn't realize they were going with full posts on each pick.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions

my fault

Shoulda been more clear. After I grab some lunch I'll post an update with appropriate links. Field Gulls will be the central site with each pick being provided along with some justification, argument, etc... for why they were taken.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

That's cool

I'm actually glad to see they're making the full posts with so much detail, I just didn't expect that. I should have looked around the site, I just didn't expect this much in depth work.

by gatling on Mar 31, 2007 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions

no problem

We wanted to make this as quality as possible. Everyone and their grandmother has a mock draft so we need to make this as unique as possible. I think we're getting there.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Draft Table

Alrighty...I'll mention this on the main page, but I've put in a table with the mock draft picks just below the poll on the right side. Each name links either to the respective sites story or to the Field Gulls link.

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by David Fucillo on Mar 31, 2007 3:08 PM PDT reply actions

Branch in the 1st?

At #11 or any higher, it's quite some risk to take Branch. What many here seem to miss or forget is that he came to the combine out of shape. Many scouts and team officials believe that he has problems with work ethic and staying the course.

I wouldn't flirt with drafting a player in the top 10 if they had question marks like those. Sure, you can say Singletary and Nolan can mold him, but do you really want to take your risk your first round pick (affecting your team for 3-5 years at the very least) on someone who may not all be there?

Willis is a solid player that can supplant EITHER of our ILB starters. He has the leadership skills and character that Nolan covets and makes him a solid pick in the first round.

Either way, you get a player that has worlds of potential. With Willis you get more of a guarantee that you'll get your money's worth. With Branch, he may have the potential to help you more, but at the same time, may have the potential to hurt you more as well.

by sfgfan on Apr 1, 2007 12:37 PM PDT reply actions

Well said

Branch would be a tempting guy in the mid to late teens I think, but for a team that seen Rashaun Woods, Kwame Harris, Mike Rumph, Andre Carter, and Reggie McGrew basically wash out here since 1999, I'd say going with a more sure bet like Willis is the route we should take.

by gatling on Apr 1, 2007 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Reggie McGrew

Wow McGrew brings back some hideous memories! I had completely forgotten about him.

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by David Fucillo on Apr 1, 2007 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions

McGrew

He and Woods are by far the bottom of the barrel out of that group. I actually liked Mike Rumph (a minority I'm sure).

I don't know who else is in agreement with me and gatling (and maybe Braekneck), but I'd really like to see Willis first and foremost (assuming Landry is gone). If Willis is gone, I'd go with Carriker over Branch. If Landry, Willis or Carriker are all gone, I'd look at trading down (maybe to 20ish). If Branch is still there, maybe I'll go with him. Otherwise Meachem is a super choice around 20 (if he lasts that long).

by sfgfan on Apr 1, 2007 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions