1981 vs. 2007 - Why not just take Eric Wright again?

by Fooch on Apr 10, 2007 9:06 PM PDT in News Comment 16 comments

Nostocksjustbonds started a very brief discussion about the possibility of similarities between the 2007 49ers and the 1981 49ers. I've been thinking about it ever since and wanted to do a little more research into it. First off let's take a rather rudimentary look at the team's performance the prior year (# in paranthesis is the NFL rank).

1980 49ers: 6-10 (following a 2-14 season)
Offense
Passing: 3799 yards (#6)
Rushing: 1,743 yards (#24)/4.2 YPA (#7)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 5,542 yards (#12)

Defense
Passing: 3,958 yards (#26)
Rushing: 2,218 yards (#23)/3.99 YPA(#19)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 6,176 yards (#27)

2006 49ers: 7-9 (following a 4-12 season)
Offense
Passing: 2,890 yards (#29)
Rushing: 2,172 yards (#6)/4.96 YPA (#2)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 5,062 yards (#26)

Defense
Passing: 3,571 yards (#26)
Rushing: 1,936 yards (#19)/4.09 YPA (#16)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5,507 yards (#26)

A quick glance at these particular numbers shows the influence of the West Coast Offense in 1980. While the team was highly ranked in rushing yards per carry, they ranked very low in total yards as the short passing game took over. While the rankings of total passing vs. total rushing yards would indicate mirror images of each other, I think it can be concluded the 1980 offense clearly performed better. The passing game made up quite well for the relative lack of rushing yards and furthermore, this was simply Bill Walsh's growing offensive strategy.

On defense, it appears the 2006 49ers performed better. Of course there are plenty of extenuating circumstances that would affect those numbers, so this has to be taken with a grain of salt. The 1981 draft shows the real improvement this team made.

1981 Draft
The turnaround by the 49ers defense in 1981 is due in large part to the talent they brought in on defense in that year's draft. That draft class produced the likes of Ronnie Lott (Rd 1, #8), Eric Wright (Rd 2, #40) and Carlton Williamson (Rd 3, #65). When you can load up with 3 legit starters in your secondary you kind of have to be happy. With that, why not take UNLV DB Eric Wright this year just for the synergy?

While we have yet to reach the 2007 draft, this offseason has seen a full scale rebuilding of the defense. While Michael Lewis might not follow Ronnie Lott as the greatest safety ever, the combination of new talent will be key this season.

Conclusions
While I would love to see this team fully complete the turnaround and win a Super Bowl I am a little more realistic. Alex Smith will be a good quarterback in this league, but clearly he is not Joe Montana yet. In 1981, Montana made "the leap," from potential to production, jumping from 1,795 yards and 15/9 TD/INT to 3,565 and 19/12. Part of that was that he took complete control of the start job from Steve DeBerg. Will Alex Smith a similar leap? Or even a miniature version of that leap?

With an improving defense and the power of Frank Gore, I don't think a huge leap is necessary for Alex Smith. If Smith can just make some steady improvement, this team will be a respectable contender...And just so you know, the Kool Aid will be available on your way out the door.

We'll look at this again after the draft and shortly before the 2007 regular season starts.

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In 1981

Joe Montana wasn't "Joe Montana"...yet.

Again, I didn't say it would happen, I was really just trying to open a mini, if premature, discussion by asking "can it happen?"

I think the answer is yes, it can, because it did before. But, perhaps its better to wait until after the draft to see where we stand, especially on defense.

Bring back Eddie D.

by nostocksjustbonds on Apr 10, 2007 11:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Differences in offense.

I'm not going to say that this different makes up for 100% of the difference in production, but I do believe it makes a significant difference. The Bill Walsh offense, the West Coast offense, is a "pass to setup the run" kind of offense. As you pointed out, short passing game basically replaced the some of the running game, and that makes total sense.

However, the 49ers gained a significantly greater amount of rushing yards (400 yards over a season, to me, is significant). Running the ball, I'd like to argue (but can't really offer too much substantial proof) eats up a lot more of the clock. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, the increased amount of passes that the '80 team had could have taken away less carries than the '06 team's additional running takes away passes (I hope that sentence makes sense).

Again, I'm not exactly sure how I'd go about quantifying/validating this argument/suggestion. It's just a thought.

As you pointed out, Alex won't need to become "Joe", or even 75% of "Joe". He just needs to limit mistakes (much like Dilfer did for the Ravens when they were at/near the top). Let Frank/Robinson(/Bush) and the O-Line shoulder the load, and just make smart, efficient throws.

I can't wait until this draft.

by sfgfan on Apr 11, 2007 8:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Eric Wright

Maiocco has noted on several occasions that Wright is scheduled to come to Santa Clara for a visit. While teams cannot run players through workouts (other than the "local" prospect combine each team is allowed to have), the visit could be used to clarify any issues (character or otherwise) the 49ers have learned about a player.

You don't bring in a player to try to clarify his past without being interested in him. The question is, how interested? I'd imagine that he's going to be off the board sometime from the mid to late second round. If he's available with the 49ers first third round pick, do they take him?

Obviously, I'd like to see them take Bush with this pick. But setting Bush aside, I just don't think the 49ers need a CB bad enough to take one with an early third rounder. Not with Soliai and some potentially solid LBs and WRs still on the board. I guess it all depends on who the team takes in the first and second rounds.

By the way, DraftTek seems to think SBN is only running through the first round. Was there a change of plans? I noticed the mock is running a lot slower than it should, with just over 10 days to complete the next two rounds. Just curious is all.

by sfgfan on Apr 11, 2007 9:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Two things

We've had some issues with a couple teams slowing things down but hopefully that will clear up. Additionally, once we get to the second round we expect less trade discussions and more straight picking. There's a chance we drop the 3rd round of this but we think we can still make it happen.
The Jaguars are still interested in trading up in the 2nd round. Thoughts on this? Do we get a preliminary deal in place depending on what wide receivers might or might not drop to us with our current 2nd rounder?

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by Fooch on Apr 11, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2.

What are the Jag's offering their 2nd and 3rd?

by methodrampage on Apr 11, 2007 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing offered yet

I was going to look over the value chart and in general I'm thinking something involving 2nd and 3rd.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Apr 11, 2007 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go for it

According to DraftTek, Sidney Rice would be available at the Jags 2nd round pick. Adding another 3rd rounder would be fantastic.

by gatling on Apr 11, 2007 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why not

Fooch, you already started drinking the sfgiantfan and gatling kool-aid why stop now? But seriously, and I know someone will flip out about us moving down and potentially missing out on Sidney Rice but for the sake of the mock draft lets trade down. Even if we miss out on Rice at #48, Jason Hill and Craig Davis are viable options. Both are big recievers would could free up Lelie down field.

by methodrampage on Apr 11, 2007 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me revise that

If this was a real draft I wouldn't think about trading down if Rice was there. But it's a mock and if it nets us another first day pick so be it.

by methodrampage on Apr 11, 2007 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade

As I stated earlier, I'm discussing a deal with the Jaguars but it's not something that I'd agree to at this moment. It's a preliminary discussion depending on who's available when our current pick comes up in the 2nd round. I just want to have an idea of ALL the options available to us at that point.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Apr 11, 2007 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

In real life, if Rice is there we go for him. In this mock, I wouldn't be surprised to see him available at the Jags pick, so we still might be able to nab him. And as you mentioned before, Davis and Hill wouldn't be bad consolation prizes if we ended up with one of them.

As for the kool-aid, I hope it was good. It never got back around to me.

by gatling on Apr 11, 2007 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pass it on.

The Kool-Aid.

[NFL Network's "State of the 49ers", in case someone hasn't seen it.]

by sfgfan on Apr 11, 2007 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1.

How long does it take the Pats to make a reach of a pick. I could draw names out of a hat and do better.

by methodrampage on Apr 11, 2007 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Patriots

I think we're trying to come to a consensus now and pick for them...but thankfully they won't pick again for a while after that and most of the remaining 1st round picks are ready to roll.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Apr 11, 2007 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting approach.

The blog's author/writer seems to be shouldering the entire load him (or her) self. It wasn't until after Weddle was "picked" that he/she made their first mention of the SBN draft.

by sfgfan on Apr 11, 2007 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs