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Draft Report: Steve Smith, WR (USC)

[EDITOR'S NOTE] - Noava22 went to USC and offered to put together a Steve Smith scouting report, since this is a guy who could very well end up in San Francisco. I've got one from Conquest Chronicles I'll post later this weekend, but in the meantime, here's what Noava22 has to say about Smith.



While everyone is focused on the SBNation Mock draft, and even though we've drafted Sidney Rice from U.S.C. in the 2nd round, Fooch and I both think it'd be a good idea to take an in depth look at Steve Smith and his potential.  I'll be contributing a writeup on Steve, commenting on his collegiate performance and my prediction of where he will head in his NFL career.  Conquest Chronicles will also be chipping in their own report at a later date, possibly this weekend.

Steve Smith: NFL Draft Preview

Steve comes from the land of sunshine and smog pollution, the city of angels - a place I confidently called home for the last four years.  While he amassed gaudy numbers in his senior season, many people question his heart and his ability to be a playmaker.  The entirety of his collegiate career, he was overshadowed: at first, by the Man-Child Mike Williams.  Once Mike left USC, Dwayne Jarrett was pedigreed to be the star wideout, once again leaving Steve to be the team's #2 receiver.

Coming out of high school, Smith was the 6th best wide receiver prospect in the nation.  Known for being able to play both WR and CB, he was seen as a burner with great skills.  Upon arriving at USC, he proved himself to be valuable in his freshman season and played a very solid 4 years for the Trojans.  He struggled with some injuries his Junior season, but was healthy for the rest of the time he played in the cardinal and gold.

Strengths

Like most other offensive players that come out of USC, Smith has seen extensive time in an NFL-style/quality offense.  Over his four years there, he became known as the go-to and possession receiver, as DJ occasionally got a case of the dropsies.  Smith always ran very precise routes and found ways to get himself open, and he caught everything thrown at him.  He's a good blocking receiver, which would fit in quite well with what Nolan is looking for.

Smith also plays very smart.  He protects the ball well after catches, and knows how to get around the disadvantages of being small.  He's calm, experienced and confident, and could be used on special teams in a pinch.

Weaknesses

Smith is only 5' 11.75' tall - at under six feet, his height is a liability against even some of the regular sized corners in the NFL.  While his elusiveness works to his advantage, this clearly makes him a possession receiver as he cannot fight for jump balls.  Also, given his small frame, some scouts are surprised at his lack of speed - they say he plays slow, and depending on who you ask, some say he can separate and some cannot.  This very well might end up being a case of the stopwatch vs. the film, where the clock says he can't do it but the film says he can.  I'm biased, but I'll trust what I saw on the field.

Another knock on Smith is that he never served as the #1 receiver at USC and thus never played against the top corners of the Pac10.  While this is somewhat true, Smith had to take on the role of primary receiver this past season for one game while DJ was out.  In this game (against Washington State), Smith had 11 catches for 186 yards and 2 td's - sounds like to me he knows how to play as a primary receiver.

But yes, he's small, and he's not that quick.  But wasn't that said about a certain #80 before?

NFL Projection

When I project a player, I like to think of three scenarios: the player's ceiling potential, the player's probable potential and the player's lowest potential.  With Smith, I see his potential as follows:

Ceiling Potential: A poor man's Javon Walker

I think you could also say his top potential is that of a poor man's Steve Smith (the one who's already in the NFL) - a possession receiver who can be a #1.  The "poor man" means he'll never be a superstar - but he can be very, very good in the right system.  I'd say the probability of Smith reaching this potential is 10%

Probable Potential: A poor man's Amani Toomer

Probability of this happening? about 65%

Lowest Potential: Tai Street's best production.

---------------

So, Smith has the potential to be a very good #3, a good #2 or a good slot receiver in the right system.  I also think he has the potential to slide in the draft, because USC players tend to be overvalued in pre-drafts.  So he could be there in the 3rd round.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Nice analysis
I like the write up you put together, thanks for taking the time to do so.  I'd be happy with an Amani Toomer type guy on the Niners, although I think there are players like that available in the 3rd and 4th rounds, even into the 5th and 6th rounds if you get lucky.  It's that depth in the receiver pool that makes me think we should wait until the 3rd or 4th to grab a receiver or two.  

by gatling on Apr 13, 2007 1:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the analysis
Smith is a good player, but not a #1 receiver.  Except for Washington State, which probably has one of the weaker secondary in the pac-10, Smith hasn't face top corner on regular bases.  In NFL, every corner is #1 corner in college.  It's going to be a big step up for Steve Smith.
I agree with gatling, 3rd reciever, maybe 3rd or 4th round grade.
Great analysis noava22.  

by ALottOfSense on Apr 13, 2007 1:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Smith
I didn't mean that Smith is a 3rd or 4th round talent, he's gonna go in the 2nd round without too much doubt.  I just feel we'll similar value in the later rounds, because there is such good WR depth and there isn't much difference from the second tier to the third tier guys.  

by gatling on Apr 13, 2007 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather have Gonzalez than Smith
but in the 2nd round, if we can't get Rice, we should go defense or OL. Given that Rice very well could get taken by the Vikes 1 pick ahead of us in the 2nd round, we should probably grab Ryan Kalil (C-USC) if we go OL.
Bring back Eddie D.

by nostocksjustbonds on Apr 14, 2007 1:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Question
If both Sears and Kalil are there, who would you take?  I ask because I wondered if you feel adding an interior lineman, specifically a center would be best, allowing Heitmann to move back to guard eventually...say when Larry Allen either retires or moves on?  I would be interested in seeing us add Kalil for the interior, and then possibly Ryan Harris for a tackle spot in the third.  If Smiley is indeed traded, maybe we could get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him, allowing us to add two OL in those two rounds, while still being able to add a defender and a WR or RB.

by gatling on Apr 14, 2007 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Both will be there in the 2nd round
or at least there's a very good chance that both would be there. I think Kalil will definitely go before Sears. He's the #1 center in the draft, despite his, relatively speaking, small size (under 300 lbs). His technique makes him better. Also, his father was a center in the USFL.

Sears is much bigger and I like his versatility, as he can also play OT, though he really is a guard due to his skill set and lack of lateral quickness.

Both guys are good character guys.

There's a slight possibility that Sears could be available to us in the 3rd round, though I definitely could see a team like the Raiders taking him in that round ahead of us.

If we don't go OL in the 2nd round, I'd be surprised if we didn't take one in the 3rd, especially because we had 2 picks there. We should target guys like Ryan Harris (OT, Notre Dame), as you mentioned, and Samson Satele (OG, Hawaii) at that first 3rd round pick.

Heck, as you mentioned, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to add som more depth on the OL by grabbing linemen in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, especially if we deal Smiley.

Bring back Eddie D.

by nostocksjustbonds on Apr 15, 2007 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, baby
Fooch, I love the countdown.
I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Apr 14, 2007 9:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Countdown
After the draft we'll roll the countdown until rookie camp!
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Apr 15, 2007 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Fooch
Where are we at in the draft?  Last pick I've seen is #44.

by gatling on Apr 15, 2007 11:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Pick #48 - Jacksonville
The Jaguars are on the clock.  I'll update the table to the right today, but in the meantime here's the 2nd round so far:

1(33) Oakland Raiders -- Zach Miller, TE(ASU)
2(34) Detroit Lions -- Marcus McCauley, CB(Fresno St)
3(35) Tampa Bay Bucs -- Buster Davis, LB(Florida St)
4(36) Cleveland Browns -- Ryan Kalil, C(USC)
5(37) Chicago Bears -- Michael Griffin, S(Texas)
6(38) Arizona Cardinals -- Brandon Meriweather, S(Miami)
7(39) Atlanta Falcons -- Tony Ugoh, OL(Arkansas)
8(40) Miami Dolphins -- Arron Sears, OT(Tennessee)
9(41) Minnesota Vikings -- Anthony Gonzalez, WR(Ohio State)
10(42) San Francisco 49'ers -- Sidney Rice, WR(South Carolina)
11(43) Buffalo Bills -- Antonio Pittman, RB(Ohio State)
12(44) Atlanta Falcons -- Charles Johnson, DE(Georgia)
13(45) Carolina Panthers -- Brandon Siler, LB(Florida)
14(46) Pittsburgh Steelers -- Anthony Spencer, DE(Purdue)
15(47) Green Bay Packers -- Tanard Jackson, CB(Syracuse)

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Apr 16, 2007 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Fooch
Can you make this trade with Jax?

Their 2nd Round (48) - 420 points
for
Our 3rd(76), 4th (124) and 3rd next year?
  76 - 210
 124 - 48
 3rd next year, if 20th position = 170

 So total = 428.  

 Then get Beason?

by ALottOfSense on Apr 16, 2007 4:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

pick
Sorry I've been slow to get picks up, but we passed them.  The Jaguars took Tim Crowder, the Bengals took Beason.

I'll get mine updated as soon as I can, but in the meantime, the best site for viewing the picks:

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/special/2007_SB_Nation_Mock_Draft

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Apr 16, 2007 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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