John Clayton - NFC Big Questions

by David Fucillo on May 3, 2007 4:08 PM PDT in San Francisco 49ers News

Over at the World Wide Leader, John Clayton put together a column today discussing the major question each team in the NFC faces entering the 2007 season. For your San Francisco 49ers, he had the following to say:

Is one of the league's best offseasons good enough to make the 49ers a playoff team?

The 49ers' ultimate goal was finding seven new starters on defense. That might have been a little ambitious, but it was a great offseason for the defense. The additions of cornerback Nate Clements and safety Michael Lewis complete the secondary. Patrick Willis and Tully Banta-Cain, along with Manny Lawson and Derek Smith, form a good linebacking corps. Aubrayo Franklin will help at nose tackle. The key is for Alex Smith to develop at quarterback. That process took a hit with the departure of offensive coordinator Norv Turner to San Diego. Head coach Mike Nolan believes he has that covered with his staff. He helped Smith by adding WR Ashley Lelie and Darrell Jackson to the receiving corps.

When people have asked me how I think the 49ers will do this year, I tell them it depends on how Alex Smith's development continues. While I am disappointed Norv Turner, I think that Smith is a bright enough guy with enough natural talent to take the next step under his new offensive coordinator. Jim Hostler was the QB coach the last two years and thus has spent plenty of time with Smith. Additionally, his new QB coach, Frank Cignetti brings a lot of knowledge and success to the position.

In the end, the development of Alex Smith will fall on the shoulders of Alex Smith. Personally, I don't think Alex Smith has to be great this year. His backup, Trent Dilfer, was just good enough for the Baltimore Ravens to win a title. His role was simply to not make mistakes and let their historically good defense take care of business. Smith has a much improved defense, as well as a much improved offense to rely upon. However, Smith will definitely make some plays this year if the 49ers expect to take a big step forward. Smith has a plethora of weapons at his disposal through the air and on the ground. With the additions of Darrell Jackson, Jason Hill, Ashley Lelie and even potentially Thomas Clayton, the 49ers are positioned to make a run at the NFC West crown and maybe even make a little noise in the postseason.

Simply put, Alex Smith has to be good this year, but he doesn't have to be great. Hopefully he realizes what he has working for him and does not try to force the issue.

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Totally agree

It's really up to Alex Smith this year. If you look at the rest of the team all the pieces are there.

Offensively Smith should have plenty of weapons; a top 5 RB, a legit #1 WR (and the rest of the WR core is solid), an incredibly athletic TE, and what should be a pretty decent OL.

For the defense, I can't wait to watch Willis all season long (he's probably the biggest reason for me to get the NFL ticket package). I think the weakest part of our D is the coverage skills of our safeties but the defense should be able to keep us in any game.

Needless to say its time for Smith to step up and show us what he's made of.

by methodrampage on May 3, 2007 4:20 PM PDT reply actions

I totally agree, too.

The way the offense performs this year is entirely up to Alex. From the coaching and scouting standpoint, the third year has been touted as the year where you see if a QB has what it takes to make it in this league. The 49ers coaching staff, front office, fans, and the rest of the world will see exactly what he is made of this year.

As Braekneck pointed out, he has weapons everywhere. In addition to a top 5 back and a legit #1 WR, he has at least two or three other potentially solid WR. In addition to Vernon Davis at TE, there will be the contributions from Delanie Walker as well. With all of these potential weapons (and fallbacks) Alex really has no excuse to do poorly this year.

Contrary to what many (read: media) believe, the departure of Norv Turner should not have a significant impact. Jim Hostler is a student of Norv's offensive scheme, and is a very astute one at that. If I remember correctly, Hostler spent most of the time tutoring and Alex and running him through ins-and-outs of the scheme. Also, if I remember correctly, even though Norv was the coordinator and Hostler was just the QB coach, Hostler actually created his own gameplans for each and every game. He is a hardworking coach, and probably knows Norv's system as well as anyone. He will definately add his own touch to it as well.

As Fooch points out, Alex doesn't have to be great this year. He doesn't have to be Young, Montana, Marino, McNabb, or anything like that. He could be about as solid as Rex Grossman was last year and this offense will succeed. I happen to believe Alex is a better player than Grossman, so I have no reason to believe he won't perform better. He also has more weapons than Grossman did last season.

Like Braekneck, I can't wait to see this defense (Willis, included of course) in action all year long. Clayton overlooks Brandon Moore in those comments, but I think Moore will definitely start alongside Willis.

As it stands:

QB: Alex Smith
HB: Frank Gore
FB: Moran Norris
TE: Vernon Davis
WR: Darrell Jackson, Ashly Lelie
LT: Jonas Jennings
LG: Larry Allen
C: Eric Heitmann
RG: Justin Smiley
RT: Joe Staley (I think he'll pass up Kwame easily)

Notable Reserves: Arnaz Battle (WR), Jason Hill (WR), Delanie Walker (TE), Adam Snyder (OG/OT), Kwame Harris (RT).

LE: Bryant Young
NT: Aubrayo Franklin
RE: Marques Douglas
LOLB: Manny Lawson
LILB: Patrick Willis
RILB: Brandon Moore
ROLB: Tully Banta-Cain
CB: Nate Clements, Shawntae Spencer
FS: Keith Lewis
SS: Michael Lewis

Notable Reserves: Ronald Fields (DE/NT), Parys Haralson (OLB), Walt Harris (CB), Mark Roman (S)

That is a very solid starting 22m and an even more solid supporting cast. You can't help but be excited for this team.

by sfgfan on May 3, 2007 4:54 PM PDT reply actions

Spencer?

Other than Harris' performance last year, I don't have any other ammo to back up this question; but you think Spencer will end up starting opposite Clements? I kind of just assumed Harris would get the nod (assuming he earns/proves it in camp).

by rockstar49 on May 4, 2007 7:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Spencer

It could really go either way. I just think that Spencer is better suited for first and second downs because he has more size and physical ability than Harris. Spencer is also more solid against the run (probably because of his size).

Harris is a superb option as a nickel back who can either cover the slot guy or allow Spencer to move inside.

Like I just said though, it could really go either way. You can't really lose with either starting at corner, as the other comes in on passing packages. In the NFC West, the nickel package becomes your best friend.

Just for fun, on passing downs:

LE Manny Lawson
DT Bryant Young
DT Ronald Fields
RE Tully Banta-Cain
LB Brandon Moore
LB Patrick Willis
CB Nate Clements
CB Shawntae Spencer
CB Walt Harris
FS Keith Lewis or Mark Roman
SS Michael Lewis or Keith Lewis

The 49ers have the ability to be very flexible along the front in this package. Lawson can drop back to coverage and Moore can get after the QB. Haralson and Green should figure into the ends as well. Pretty darn solid.

by sfgfan on May 4, 2007 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Come on

Where's the Spencer love?

Personally, I think he's one of the most underrated CBs in the league, and while maybe not an ideal matchup against some of the top receivers in football, will be really, really great against these #2 guys.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on May 4, 2007 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Spencer and Harris

I love Spencer too, but let's not forget that Harris did go to the Pro Bowl last year. It's not too often a guy goes to the Pro Bowl and loses his starting spot the next year. Then again, most teams don't go out and pick up another Pro Bowler at the same position. I agree with sfgfan that either of them could start, and both of them will see plenty of action either way. It's a very nice problem to have. Especially after running some pretty sorry secondaries out there not too long ago. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Mike Rumph.

"You gotta bring ass, to get ass." --EDDIE DeBARTOLO JR.

by Josh from Hollywood on May 5, 2007 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions

Keith Lewis

Keith Lewis at FS scares me a little bit, hopefully we put one hell of a pass rush on all year.

by methodrampage on May 4, 2007 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Keith

I'm sure that on Passing downs, Nolan will figure something out. I think Roman is better suited for FS on the passing downs, and Keith is better for first and second down.

Another option is to move Keith to SS on passing downs, and put Roman in at FS. That'll sort of take care of M.Lewis' pass coverage issues as well.

All I am really sure of is Michael Lewis will man the SS on first and second down. It's what he is.

by sfgfan on May 4, 2007 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions

are they gellin'?

I hate to put the brakes on the good mood in here, but I believe there is an overlooked component to the keys to success for the 2007 49ers: chemistry.

The 49ers have added a lot of new players, especially on defense and I believe it may take some time for these guys to come together as a unit. I also don't think that Willis or Staley will be starters in week 1. But they don't need to start in week 1 (barring any injury concerns) because we have capable players in those spots.

While Staley is a great talent, rookie tackles don't often start in the NFL and when they do, a lot of the time, it isn't a pretty picture. it takes time to for these players to develop and while I think they will, it won't happen right away.

Bring back Eddie D.

by nostocksjustbonds on May 4, 2007 9:00 AM PDT reply actions

Chemstry

While I agree chemistry is a big issue, it's hard to imagine that Nolan and Co haven't factored that into their decision. The players they've picked up are team players, for the most part. It's not like they signed a bunch of ringers (see: Washington Redskins).

As for the rookies, I somewhat agree. It really depends on how well they take on the scheme(s) and develop during the next few months. Willis has already been "tabbed" as a third-down "starter" by Nolan during his presser. He also noted that Willis will compete to "start" in the first and second down packages as well. Staley, on the other hand, may be iffy-er.

With Nolan, it's all about competition. I don't see how Willis could lose out to Derek Smith. While I can see how Staley can lose out to Harris (as he is raw), I can also see how he passes Harris rather easily.

by sfgfan on May 4, 2007 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions

it probably won't take long

for the rookies to pass up the vets, especially Willis. he has a much better chance of beating out Smith in preseason than Staley has of beating out Harris.

NFL defenses are a lot more complicated than they used to be and Willis is going to be expected to be the leader on the defensive side of the ball- the "defensive QB" if you will. For that reason, Nolan may wait a little bit longer to make sure he has complete grasp of their schemes. Physically, there's no question he will out perform Smith from day 1. But he's not going to be perfect and will make some rookie mistakes and that's why I don't think he'll start right away (assuming health isn't a factor). Once he knows where he is supposed to be, look out, he'll be a monster.

Bring back Eddie D.

by nostocksjustbonds on May 4, 2007 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Norv Turner

I know everyone thinks Turner is a great offensive mind, but I thought I'd throw someone elses two cents in the ring:

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders/2007/02/19/The_Terrible_Mr_Turner

If you haven't heard of Football Outsiders, their goal is to be the Baseball Prospectus of football. Take that for what it's worth to you, but I think he brings up some interesting points about Turner.

If you're wondering what DVOA is, it's explained here:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods.php

by marcello on May 4, 2007 11:33 AM PDT reply actions

Football Outsiders

I'm a big fan of Football Outsiders. I'm still trying to come up with the best way to utilize them within this site. Can't just throw out a bunch of new stats many people don't know about. Any thoughts?

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on May 4, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

New stats

Yeah, it's difficult to present new stats. Although, I think football people, in general, are more accepting of complex stats than baseball people (think QB rating). I can't think of any great way to utilize FO other than just referencing them when the write something interesting/relevant. People will decide for themselves if they're interested in learning what it is FO does. Lead a horse to water and such...

by marcello on May 4, 2007 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah.

I think the best way to introduce new (read: complex) stats is to just bring them up in some of your discussion. If you're doing a analysis on a player's performance (or a scouting report), you can include the stats in your analysis.

You can then either choose to explain the stat yourself, or direct the reader to the original source (if possible). If the reader really wants to understand your stat, they'll look it up or ask questions.

Marcello is right though, football does seem to be a lot more "complex" stat friendly. Throw it out there a few times and see what kind of response you get.

by sfgfan on May 4, 2007 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions

New stats like VORWGSKT?

Value Over Replacement Will Get Someone Killed Tackle (Kwame Harris)

by methodrampage on May 4, 2007 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions

49ers

While we're talking about FO, here is their review of the Niners draft:

San Francisco 49ers
Draft Review

The most aggressive team in free agency, the 49ers kept the spirit going in the 2007 draft. They came into the weekend with eight picks in the first four rounds, and gave up one of their three fourth-rounders for Seattle receiver Darrell Jackson. The wisdom of this move for the Seahawks is best left to the vagaries of time, but it's generally not a great idea to hand your most productive receiver to the one team that's growing ever larger in your divisional rearview mirror, thus filling their most glaring need and allowing them to go Best Player Available with abandon.

Mike Nolan and company chose Mississippi linebacker Patrick Willis with the 11th overall pick. Willis impressed Nolan greatly at the Senior Bowl, and this columnist called the selection in at least one previous article. Willis will play inside weakside in the Niners' new full-time 3-4 defense. San Francisco then traded their 2008 first-round pick and another of those fourths for New England's first-round slot, which they used to get Central Michigan tackle Joe Staley. Another player who impressed Nolan at the Senior Bowl, Staley will probably begin his NFL career with a competition at right tackle before moving left as he learns the ropes and puts on a few more pounds. The team then traded their 2007 second-round pick to the Colts for Indy's 2008 first-rounder.

The third round brought Washington State's Jason Hill, a burner who ran a sub-4.4 40 at the Combine and will most likely see time as a third receiver behind Jackson and Ashley Lelie. A compensatory third-round pick was used for Florida defensive lineman Ray McDonald, who played end and tackle in college. McDonald fell in the draft due to some knee problems. Nebraska OLB Jay Moore, yet another Senior Bowl workout warrior (he recorded three sacks in the game) was selected in the fourth round. Florida defensive tackle Joe Cohen, Texas cornerback Tarell Brown, and Kansas State running back Thomas Clayton rounded out one of the most remarkable drafts -- and most productive offseasons -- in franchise history.
Remaining Needs

For the 49ers, the big need is for all the new pieces to come together. There's been so much movement, and so many improvements, but the great unknown is whether everything meshes right off the bat. If it does, this is a potentially dangerous team. Guards Justin Smiley and Larry Allen are in the last years of their contracts, so if David Baas and Tony Wragge have to move up the depth chart, some developmental help at the position would be good. Backup quarterback Trent Dilfer has been an exceptional mentor to Alex Smith, but it's not known how much Dilfer has left in the tank as a quarterback, should Smith miss time for any reason.
Undrafted Free Agents

Akron quarterback Luke Getsy, one of two Pitt-to-Akron transfers after the 2003 season (guard Andy Alleman being the other), starred for the Zips after the Cleveland Browns selected Charlie Frye in 2005. Getsy, who broke Frye's school record for passing yards in 2006, is a student of the game and a good fit in a West Coast offense where the deep ball isn't as much of a factor. Jeff Garcia was once an undrafted, underrated San Francisco acquisition from a small school, and the 49ers are certainly hoping Getsy has that kind of potential.

Zac Herold, a tight end from Nebraska-Omaha, has good size and marginal speed. Compared to Minnesota's Jim Kleinsasser by some for his ability to grab yardage in zones. Herold is just a decent blocker, but a very hard worker who could impress on intangibles.

Outside linebacker Mickey Pimentel of Cal started most of his senior season, proved an ability to get behind the lines with multiple tackles for loss, and was the star of his Pro Day. Listed at six feet tall at the Combine, Pimentel comes to the NFL with a chip on his shoulder. "I could have sworn I was six-foot, but they said I'm not and that may not be tall enough," he told the San Francisco Chronicle. "I guess I should have worn high heels ... I hope that I opened some eyes and shined enough that my name will get out there." Now, he's got his chance -- hopefully without the heels.

Found here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/05/02/ramblings/four-downs/5123/

by marcello on May 4, 2007 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Comfortable with the D-line?

First, the Chargers GM is running the show and he with the owner hired Norv as a puppet coach. Marty wanted to do his own thing too much. Norv can be controled. And as an O-coordinator big loss for the Niners. Second, the D-line scares the hell out of me. BY is on his last legs and its hard to say he would be starting for another team. Franklin was excess baggage in Baltimore. The D-line has to keep things free for the LBs to make plays. Can they do this? There were times last year when QBs would drop back and have all day. Against a 3-4 or blitzing D that should never happen. Please, someone explain to me why I am wrong so I can sleep at night. As a whole though the team is much better and ready to compete.

by The Roach on May 4, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions

DL

The DL is not as bad as you seem. You're just the really pessimistic one on this site (every site has them), which is fine. You don't set yourself up to get disappointed.

I beg to differ that BY is on his last legs. The guy has still got the motor and drive to help this team. He doesn't help the team in the form of individual stats, but rather, his knowledge of his opponents and his use of technique. He does whats best for the team and is willing to do the dirty work to help keep LB's free.

I also beg to differ that Franklin was excess baggage in Baltimore. Baltimore's defense, if I recall, runs their defense exactly the way Nolan wants to run it here. Rotations of players where while certain players start, bench players make significant contributions.

This defense will be tons better than it previously was. The defensive line, while doesn't look impressive on paper, will do the job just fine. The secondary is drastically improved (in all situations) and the linebacker group is also improved.

Don't worry too much about the team. You can sleep well for the next 3 months. Don't start worrying unless you see obvious signs of struggle in the preseason.

by sfgfan on May 4, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Draftek

They're doing a "value" analysis over there. So through R1-R3, the 49ers are second in total value. The team trailed only Carolina in "value".

Round 4's picks threw the 49ers into negative value, dropping them out of positive "value" but kept them in the top half of the league. No doubt, Goldson and Cohen played huge roles in that, Cohen being the biggest culprit (he was slated for the 7th round).

Replace Cohen with anyone else on any of our (read: the NinersNation community) picks, and the 49ers may have stayed on top of the "value" board.

by sfgfan on May 4, 2007 4:39 PM PDT reply actions

Fooch..why would you do that?

Fooch why would you put up a photo of ray mcdonald destroying my Golden Eagle? Are you trying to hurt my feelings? Are u running me off. Out of all the teams, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles had to be the pic that the whole niner nation see ray ray dominate? MY mY mY Why?

"Niners Are Back!!!"

by mississippininer on May 6, 2007 7:37 PM PDT reply actions

southern miss

I figured I'd single-handedly screw with you!!!!!

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on May 6, 2007 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Explain Further

Im not a pessimist, I consider myself a realist. The truth is the D-line on paper is pretty bad. Franklin was let go from Baltimore because they just drafted a "true big guy" a year ago. No matter how you look at it BY is still there so fans can latch onto him. The Niners would have been better suited to get a younger guy ready to take over last year. And he is probably the second best guy on the D-line. The rest are kinda just faces in the crowd until they prove something. None of them scare you. Remember the Niners averaged just 2 sacks a game playing with an aggressive defense. If you told me they were going to stuff the run and make things one demensional for opposing offenses I would buy that. But, it seems like they want to bring pressure. Explain further or Im not buying it. Hey the rest of the team looks real good. That is just a big hole I see. But the season hasnt even started yet.

by The Roach on May 7, 2007 2:18 PM PDT reply actions

Sacks

Well, if you're looking for sacks from B.Y., Franklin, Douglas, or anyone else the 49ers put on the front three this year, you'll be terribly disappointed. The line in a 3-4 just doesn't have to be built to do that. Thats the job of those oversized OLBs and quick ILBs.

If the team were in a 4-3, and their line was BY, Franklin, Fields, and Douglas, then yeah, I'd say it's pretty bad. But they're in a 3-4, where the defensive line will hardly get any glitz. Do you really believe that Franklin, Young, Douglas, Fields, Sopoaga, et. al can't eat up blockers for the 1 to 3 LBs that can be blitzing on any given down?

Tell me what it is that's bad about them, really. If it's just sack production from the (now) front three, then I say you really have no cause for concern. Are they too small? Are they not strong enough? Are you looking for quickness? Work ethic? All you're giving me is "2 sacks per game playing an aggressive defense", and you want me to explain further?

Remember, last season they had no linebackers (or talent). Ulbrich got benched, Smith was crippled, Haralson (a supposed pass-rush specialist, in time) was gone for the year. Also remember that last season they had no corners at one point other than Walt Harris. Sammy Davis trotting out there as a starting corner doesn't help ANY defensive line any. San Diego even believed that.

All I'm saying is that if week 4 or 5 comes around and the LBs aren't getting many sacks or tackles for loss, then you can say the linemen (or the linebackers) suck. Until then though, I think they are sufficient enough to do what they're supposed to do.

by sfgfan on May 8, 2007 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Totally Agree

Im with ya. I want to see the sacks from the LBs. I watched last year at the game and at home and the LBs get eatten up. They disappeared because the line gets pushed around and then the o-line gets to the next level on the run or they just plain squish the blitz. Teams had a lot of success throwing the ball because the blitz just couldnt get there. That is the fault of the D-line. My biggest fear and what I am going to watch early is if the blitz still has trouble getting there and our new Secondary has to cover for longer than there used to and get frustrated and burned. DB is all about confidence. I know you can only do so much in one off-season and if they get the D-line together the D is plain scary, but to me everything comes down to can the LB get to and pressure the QB. Everythisng in the 3-4 revolves around that. If they get pressure the secondary covers for less time, the offense becomes one dimensional having to rely on the run. Last year, no presure. This year, Im watching early.

by The Roach on May 9, 2007 3:50 PM PDT reply actions