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Draft Tek Draft Review

For those that recall our pre-draft discussions, Draft Tek was a hot topic due to their continually updated 7-round mock draft.  Warren and Draft Tek happens to be based in Alameda, so we've had some discussions about this and that over the last few months.  With the draft completed, Warren has been working on putting together an analysis of the best and worst of the draft, including best/worst at filling needs and best/worst overall.  His metrics have the 49ers 5th overall for first round value and #1 overall for best at addressing their needs.

To quickly summarize Draft Tek's analysis of filling our needs (followed by my rebuttal to Warren):

  1. We scored big at receiver getting Hill and trading for Jackson
  2. We lost points for not grabbing a guard
  3. We gained minimal points for picking Staley
  4. We gained big points at defensive tackle and defensive end because they were need positions
  5. However, we virtually zeroed out at linebacker because of our lack of an outside linebacker selection (more on that in a minute)
  6. We gained points with Dashon Goldson and we lost points with Tarell Brown.
I'll preface my own comments by stating that I understand the attempt to establish a formula that can be applied across all players and teams.  As has been seen in the discussion about Alex Smith the last couple of days, that is not always so easy for football.  As Draft Tek is dealing with a large number of teams and players, it's easy to overlook some of the factors that would affect the 49ers individual score.  Some of the primary ones in my opinion:
  1. Even though Jay Moore played defensive end in college, he is going to be an outside linebacker for the 49ers, thus partially addressing that need and boosting our linebacker score.
  2. Although we grabbed defensive lineman, I don't think the need was necessarily filled as well as it could have been.  If McDonald ends up having knee surgery, combined with Jay Moore not being a true DE for us, we end up with no defensive ends this season from the draft.  As for Cohen, we've all realized he's going to be a backup that could eventually turn into something.  I personally am not holding my breath with him, but I hope he works out.
  3. While I understand the poor grade for not grabbing a guard, I think the 49ers deserve a little more credit for trading up to grab Staley.  However, for immediate results, we might not get them, which could apply to the Draft Tek formula.  If we're assessing this draft for the next 5-10 years then Staley has a ton of value.  If we're strictly looking at 2007, then obviously there's less value in the Staley pick for now (barring him forcing himself into the starting lineup immediately).
  4. Finally, even though corner isn't a huge need, I think the Tarell Brown is a very good pick based on the low risk and potential high reward.  The NFC West is loaded with big, quality receivers and you can never have enough corners.  Additionally, Walt Harris has to prove he can repeat last year's performance and Shawntae Spencer has to stay healthy.  If there is a breakdown at the #2 CB, Brown could prove quite useful.
In the end, all that matters is that the 49ers did indeed have a good draft.  I can see where Draft Tek is going with this and I think it's a unique take on a highly subjective topic.  I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on the analysis, about the 49ers analysis and the system in general.  Analysis is all the rage, so why not consider one more option?

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Good points
There are some good points by both sides of the argument.  It would be interesting to know what DraftTek expects a draft pick to do in terms of contribution to the team.  Do all draft picks get positive points just because they fit a need?  Or does round factor into it as well?  I mean, a 1st rounder is obviously more likely to make an immediate impact than a 3rd or 4th rounder.

That brings me to the defensive line.  I think the picks of McDonald and Cohen were good picks.  They may not be spectacular or flashy by any means, but they fill the 49ers current needs solidly.  They even have the potential to fill the 49ers needs in the future.  Who is to say that the 49ers won't use a 1st or 2nd rounder on a DE or an NT next season?  If they did, it would keep McDonald or Cohen as backups, thus making them solid picks, still.

I don't see why guard was a need for the team going into the draft at all.  I think that "offensive line" is a general need, but with all of the flexibility of the current players, any position drafted would have worked.  Staley could be a franchise tackle, and I don't see why the team only gained "minimal" points for him.  Picking him enables guys like Snyder to potentially focus on being a guard, thus filling that need.  The offensive line depth on the 49ers is probably better than most teams in the league, and McCloughan even sees this.

OLB, in my honest opinion, because less of a need and more of a luxury after signing Banta-Cain.  With Banta-Cain, Lawson, Haralson, and Green, it doesn't leave much room out there for anyone.  As Fooch pointed out, Jay Moore will play OLB as well, forcing himself into an already crowded situation.

I like both DB picks.  Both are low risk, and high rewards.  Obviously, Brown is a REALLY high reward, but I can see Goldson developing into a solid backup FS, and possibly stepping in on passing downs (eventually).  I doubt Brown will be ready to step in a #2 or #3 this year, but he could easily challenge Strickland for the #4, and definitely be #5.

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2007 9:38 AM PDT   0 recs

Offensive line
Good point on Staley.  I think that's the primary of disagreement I have.  It's easy to not know Moore will be an OLB.  I think one option for future metrics would be measuring offensive line as a whole, maybe even alongside position by position on the line.  Excellent point about the versatility of modern day offensive linemen.
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by Fooch on Jun 1, 2007 9:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Personally
Draft Tek says that OT was a backup need and I disagree with this.  Anyone who has seen Kwame plays knows that we need to get him far away from our O-Line.

by marcello on Jun 1, 2007 11:26 AM PDT   0 recs

As much as I'd like to see him gone...
... he's not as bad as 49ers fans make him out to be.  He's pretty solid in the run-blocking department.  It's the other department he lacks any skill in.  

He's pretty slow at dropping back and turning his hips/body/feet toward the outside power-rusher.  Thats what gets him into tons of trouble.  But when it comes to attacking and using force to help move a pile, he's a solid guy.

He also has a slight problem with grabbing onto people and not letting them go.  But holding is such a funky penalty, as it happens on every play and every down.

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2007 1:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

holding
Just a matter of not being so obvious about it....
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by Fooch on Jun 1, 2007 1:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah..
... but the slowness to shift his hips/feet lead him to fall behind a lot.  I'm sure the 49ers fans AND players would be a lot more upset if instead of holding he let that defender just blow right by and sent Alex Smith out a few weeks or to IR.

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2007 1:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

true
This is true...I'm not saying he's the worst offensive lineman ever, but I definitely eagerly await the Staley era.
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by Fooch on Jun 1, 2007 1:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

As do I.
According to this Matt Maiocco entry, Kwame only had one more hold than Jonas Jennings last season, and Jennings played less.  So why do people chastize Kwame?  Because his penalties come at VERY inopportune times.  Could be bad luck, or those holds are the part of the reason the plays came out the way they did.

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/default.asp?item=418479

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2007 2:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

his personal stat book
Any idea where he gets those stats from?  Is it supplied through the 49ers website to accredited media I wonder?
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Jun 1, 2007 2:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

From what I remember...
I think in the comments or one of his entries he noted that he re-watches every single game and records statistics himself.  It must be truly painful to rewatch games like the Bears and Chiefs trouncings (sp?) last year.

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2007 2:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Another reason
So why do people chastize Kwame?

Because we wasted a first round pick on him.  If he was offering the same lack of production but was a 4th round pick nobody would really care.  Based on the expectations of a 1st round pick Kwame is a "failure".

by methodrampage on Jun 1, 2007 3:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Question
Having only seen two Niners games in the last couple of years, I wonder if the rest of you can answer a question for me.  If Kwame is that good at run blocking/moving the pile but struggles with speed rusher and like, why hasn't he been given an opportunity at guard?  Is it strictly his height(6'7") or something else?  It seems like he might be best suited to playing guard, so why not at least give it a try?  
"I'd trade Barlow for a case of crabs and a nasty rash any day of the week!"-Sprint Right Option

by gatling on Jun 1, 2007 8:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think...
... he thinks he's a tackle, and a RT at that.  The 49ers have never thought of moving him anywhere, at least to my knowledge.  I don't think he's quick enough to pull/trap as a guard, though.

by sfgfan on Jun 1, 2007 11:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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