Fantasy Football QB - Top 10

by methodrampage on Jul 10, 2007 9:05 AM PDT

As promised here's my list which will hopefully inspire a little more zeal than the WR list received.

I actually spent a little more time on this than my other lists and I think it's pretty solid.

P. Manning
C. Palmer
D. Brees
T. Brady
M. Bulger
J. Kitna
D. McNabb
T. Romo
M. Vick*
M. Leinart

* Assuming he doesn't miss any games in order to watch some dog fights.

It'll be interesting to see if Brees can follow up on last year's performance and the Brady/Moss connection is intriguing. I think Ken Dorsey could be a Fantasy stud throwing to the likes of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, and I imagine Kitna will only improve in his 2nd year under the Madman Martz. Can McNabb stay healthy? If you think he can feel free to bump him up in your rankings but I'm a skeptic. It should be pretty easy for Romo to find TO in the end zone, I expect TO to drop less passes than last year thus helping him and Romo's numbers out. Vick is Vick and 1000 yards rushing is worth a lot more than 1000 yards passing and hopefully Joe Horn can catch a little better than Jenkins and White. And Matt Leinart gets the nod over Hasselbeck for the #10 spot. I think Seattle is due for a very disappointing season and Leinart should be able to find his stud receivers, Fitzgerald and Boldin more often than not.

So there it is, now dump your lists.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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My list.

Manning, IND
Palmer, CIN
Brady, NE
Brees, NO
Bulger, STL
Romo, DAL
Leinart, ARI
Vick, ATL
McNabb, PHI
Kitna, DET

Somewhere just outside, peeking in...
Delhomme, CAR
Losman, BUF
Hasselbeck, SEA
Rivers, SD

Can provide huge dividends out of a "later" pick, but can also provide some liability...
Smith, SF
Pennington, NYJ

Notes:
The 7 through 10 slots on my list are pretty interchangeable. Leinart and Kitna will both have to deal with potentially shoddy offensive lines. Vick could all of a sudden want to become more of a passer and suck at it, or he could miss games due to various other reasons other than injury. McNabb, as Braekneck pointed out, could really go anywhere. If he stays healthy, it could push his way toward the top 5, but if he's not healthy, he could fall out of the top 10.

The four "just outside" guys are similar to the 7 to 10 guys, except their questions are a little more justified/serious. Delhomme and Hasselbeck have consistency and health issues. Are they nearing the end of the road? Losman is still pawing his way through development, but has the tools and weapons that could make him a solid fantasy QB. Rivers is just crippled by the fact his team lacks WRs.

My last group is the high risk and potentially decent to high rewards group. Pennington, if he could stay on the field, could be a solid fantasy QB. As for Smith, it may just be the fanboy in me, but I really think he's capable of a blowout year. Both, however, are very capable of disappointing and putting up numbers not worthy of being a fantasy backup, let alone a starter.

by sfgfan on Jul 10, 2007 11:58 AM PDT 0 recs

Sorry Brae

I might be particularly late with this one. My life this week has just gotten ridiculously casual internet unfriendly.

I'll be here when I get a chance.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 11, 2007 10:40 AM PDT 0 recs

To follow up

I'll have my top ten in tomorrow. The last four days have been cray-zy.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 15, 2007 9:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

Top Ten List

the first 6 on my list are exactly like sfgfan's pretty much. the only difference is that I have brady at #2 and palmer at #3.

from pretty much everything i have seen the top 5 qbs are basically all the same:

manning - of course
brady - with new and improved WR threats
palmer - now completely healthy and as good as ever
brees - in the high powered saints offense
bulger - solid; although he could holdout and has had injury issues in the past

once you get past those 5 then its really up for debate. here is the rest of my top 10:

romo - needs to be more consistant and should be in his first full year as starter
hasselback - i think he'll have a bounce back year and be able to stay healthy (a healthy alexander helps too)
rivers - with norv now running the show and in his second full year as a starter i think he has potential to put up big numbers
leinart - so many weapons, so many weapons
mcnabb - if healthy hes a top 5 guy...but health has been a big probably recently

not making the top 10 but players considered:
kitna - got consideration, although i'm not buying into all the hype. i mean, he still plays for the lions.
young - great natural ability and leader...just no offensive support

QBs i will avoid at all costs:
vick - i can't stand him and hes ridiculous inconsitant as a fantasy player. i would never pick him and will laugh at the guy who does.
losman - i'm not sold on. plus he plays for the bills.
grossman - why? because its rex grossman

that does it for me really. i'm not confident in very many QBs out there this year which is why i am going to grab one in either the 3rd or 4th round (after i draft my two stud RBs).

by coachAJ on Jul 13, 2007 11:48 AM PDT 0 recs

Couple Questions

1.) What hype aren't you buying about Kitna? The 4,200 yards while throwing to Roy Williams and Mike Furrey? Insert Calvin Johnson and those numbers shouldn't get worse. If Kitna can drop the INTs a little he'll be a top 5 QB easy. And being on the Lions only helps his fantasy value, they'll be behind and he'll be forced to throw.

2.) If you're going to list Losman and Grossman as you're avoidables, where are T. Jackson, J. Russel, B. Quinn and B. Croyle? Those are really the only QBs getting drafted (if at all) behind Losman and Grossman.

by methodrampage on Jul 13, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

answers...

1. i just don't like all the hype kitna is getting. its too much. i don't think its likely he'll throw for over 4000 yards again; but even if he does i still see him throwing around 20 INTs. not only do you get garbage time yards at the end of games when your team is as bad as the lions but you also have the tendancy to force passes and throw more interceptions. he would be top ten if he could cut down the INTs and increase his TD total by 4 or 5 but i don't see it happening.

plus, i don't trust a man that thinks the lions are a lock to win 10 games...even if he is their QB. i like my players to be on good teams. all things being equal, i will always take the player on the team that i think will be better.

2. of course jackson, quinn, croyle are avoidables but i figured that was a given so i didn't think of mentioning them. but losman and grossman are two big name guys that will get some consideration for drafting from certain people and i'm just noting that i would avoid at all costs. hell, i'd even take leftwich before those guys and i can't stand leftwich as a fantasy QB.

by coachAJ on Jul 16, 2007 1:57 PM PDT up 0 recs

counter-response

If I may to, I'd like to counter your response about Kitna.

Kitna is actually a pretty solid QB. He makes mistakes, sure, but you can't just point out INTs and say thats what dooms him. He plays in Detroit, which really doesn't have a solid offensive line, so I'm sure a lot of INTs are influenced by that.

In addition to the offensive line, last year was his first year working with Martz' system. In my own opinion, I don't think he's much different than Kurt Warner. Both are truly pocket passers who don't like to be pressured. Both have strong and accurate arms. Both know how to distribute the ball.

Martz has a way with QBs and he's an air-it-out kind of guy. Remember, Warner led the Rams to Super Bowls and won MVP awards. I think it'd be a mistake to rank any of his QBs out of the top 10. This is especially true after the QB put up quite a show in his first year under Martz.

by sfgfan on Jul 16, 2007 2:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

My Ten:

1) Peyton Manning

Really, there's no other choice.

2) Carson Palmer

So, do you like the Bengals receivers better than the Saints receivers, or vice versa? I'm going with Cinci. You can go this way with the shy away from Brees's shoulder excuse, but if Drew is in your top 3 anyway it must not be scaring you that much. To me, this is supporting cast, and I think the Bengals can stretch things a little better for Palmer. You can also point to Brees's yard advantage last year to put him #2, as well, but as far as I'm willing to project performance for these two guys, it's practically identical.

3) Drew Brees

See above. Either way, that'll do it for our 4000 yard, near 30 TD guys. Easiest top three ever.

4) Tom brady

You know exactly the least you get with Brady is 3500 yards and 25 TDs, so with the addition of what I think is going to be a rejuvinated Randy Moss, there is no conceivable gamble with this guy. It's risk v. reward, minus risk.

5) Marc Bulger

Speaking of consistency, you know exactly what you're getting with Bulger as well. I'd worry a bit about the age of his receivers, but Holt is still a premeir guy and Jackson is no slouch of a pass catcher out of the backfield so though there is some risk of decline this year, it's hardly significant.

6) Jon Kitna

In a Martz offense with Calvin Johnson & Co. on hand, he could very well outperform Bulger this year, but it's the INTs that have to worry you. I think what he did last year with that team continues to surprise a lot of people because he's only Jon Kitna, after all, but the team only got better and he's not going to be any worse than he was a year ago. Solid pick, here.

7) Donovan McNabb

McNabb is one of my favorite players in the league and I wish I could put him higher on the list, I really do, but the fact remains that he's had almost as many injury shortened seasons in his career as full seasons, and with two severely shortened seasons out of the last three (and two in a row, nonetheless) and who has only thrown for 20 TDs once in the last five years, you just have to wonder. If he's healthy, he's going to have a good year, and there's no reason to believe he can't be healthy, but then again we've said that before...

8) Philip Rivers

He played well, if inconsistently, last year and impressed me quite a bit (mostly because I was a big Brees fan since he was drafted and very low on Rivers to begin with). There are all of the questions that go with a guy who is only starting his second full year in the league, but he's no rookie and he has LT to fall back on if all else fails. I can see arguments for having him both higher and lower (and some very enthusiastic reasons for having him higher), but I'm not quite convinced at this point, can't say enough bad things about HC Norv, and think it's a risk to believe he'll consistently be a top tier QB over the course of the season. Flip flop him with McNabb and maybe Kitna if you want, but I'm playing this one cautiously.

9) Jay Cutler

Questions abound, they abound and bound and bound... but he's got the arm Shannahan wants, the Broncos will have a rejuvinated ground game (scary thought in itself), and he really looked good last year, despite limited action. Whatever questions I have, I defer to the Shannahan here. Teams won't have the luxury of targeting Jay, the gameplans will always be brilliant, and Cutler will benefit. I'm making this pick on guts, but I think he'll be good for fantasy owners everywhere.

10) J. P. Losman

I can't help but feel that I'm stretching with Losman, especially considering some of the other names still on the board (Favre, Vick, Hasselbeck, etc.) and the fact that I haven't ever been very high on Losman, but realistically I see no reason for his improvement last year not to continue, and as long as he's getting better the way that he should be, his numbers are going to be very good. Still, I wouldn't fight this pick to the death... I just, for various reasons, want no part of guys like Favre, Vick, and Hasselbeck, and don't see much risk with J. P..

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 16, 2007 1:52 PM PDT 0 recs

Oh, and

Possibly due to some serious personal bias, I want no part of Tony Romo.

But on the other hand, his stats weren't actually all that great last year and I honestly think he's due for some serious regression this year. Hence Cutler and Losman very "logically" getting the call over Tony.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 16, 2007 1:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

J/W

If Leinart and Losman were staring you in the face and it was your turn to pick, would you take Losman? If so, why? I'm not criticizing your ranking of Losman, as I have him just outside of my top 10. I'm just curious as to who you'd take and why.

by sfgfan on Jul 16, 2007 2:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

Extremely good question

And I struggled with Leinart a lot, especially since I have Cutler as high as #8 and it's hard to think of one without thinking of the other.

What it came down to for me was essentially that I think Cutler has about the most comfortable second year situation of anybody since Big Ben (and nobody that immediately comes to mind before Ben), which significantly reduces his risk in my eyes and increases his reward.

So with regard to Cutler (and I'll get to your specific question about Losman after my overlong tangential prelude... it just seems silly to explain having Losman over Leinart and not explain having Cutler over Leinart), I think Matt and Jay are capable of putting up very similar individual performances, but that Cutler's surrounding cast and coaching is just so much more favorable on the whole (obviously Leinart has better receivers) that I can't personally weigh Leinart's risk/reward higher than Cutler's (say I have Leinarts reward as an 8 and his risk as a 6, but I have Cutler at 7 and 3 respectively, Cutlers reward difference of 4 trumps Matt's 2).

So the same principles go into the Losman decision for me. Losman had very solid numbers last year (3051 yards, 19 TDs, 62% completion) and I see no reason not to expect him to improve at all, we'll say a theoretical ceiling of 3500 and 25 with a theoretical floor of something like 2900 and 17, but with limited turnovers in both cases.

Then Leinart had some decent numbers last year, too, if not spectacular (2500 yards, 11 TDs in 12 games, with a 56% completion and 12 INTs). There's no reason not to expect improvement, again, and he's certainly capable of throwing for a ton of yards, but he's still a second year QB on a team that hasn't shown an ability in recent history to perform regardless of talent (Dennis Green effect? Probably, but a porous o-line that's not significantly improved never helps). So I have to expect that he's going to struggle (which I don't see the more experienced Losman doing much of), the TD rate won't skyrocket, the comp% will improve and the turnovers will still come. Which all leads me to believe he has a theoretical ceiling somewhere around 3800 and a little over 20 with a floor around 3100 and 16 with a fair amount of turnovers.

So based on the ceilings that I see, Leinart does have what could be a significantly superior ceiling, but the risk is also much higher with Matt than with J. P..

So with my very rough number system (which, though flawed, allows for some solid conceptualization), while Cutler is 7 and 3, and Leinart is 8 and 6, Losman is a 6 and a 2. Very solid reward, with very limited risk. Losman's positive difference of 4 is greater than Leinart's positive difference of 2, and since Cutler and Losman have identical differences, Cutler's higher reward number trumps Losman for the 8 spot.

That last paragraph is all just a bunch of seriously oversimplified theorizing, but it gets at the heart of my decision. I do think Leinart has the best chance of being the best of all of them, but I also fear he has the best chance at being the worst, and when I weigh the risk/reward as I see it, I'm of the breed to make what I see are the safest gambles as opposed to the most lucrative gambles. There is more that went into my determining these risk/reward values per player, but this gets the major points covered.

Also, I have very minor concerns about Leinart's shoulder, but I'm keeping that out of my considerations as much as I possibly can because I don't think the chances of it being a problem are statistically significant.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 16, 2007 3:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

Whoops

I mean having Cutler at #9, not 8. Excuse that typo.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 16, 2007 3:46 PM PDT up 0 recs

Great explanation.

I totally understand where you're coming from with the Cutler/Losman vs Leinart argument. Taking the lower risk guy, if it doesn't sacrifice much potential gain, makes tons of sense. I guess it depends on what the drafter/coach is looking for out of their QB. I'm now surprised I've sort of ignored Cutler altogether. He does have a really solid offensive line, and you can (almost) always count on Shannahan's running game to be above-average.

As it's been pointed out, some wait until later (at least 4th or 5th) to select a QB, as the difference between many of the "second teir" guys aren't that great. I'm no fantasy expert (I've only participated in two leagues, ever), so I'm not sure exactly what percentage of your fantasy points are contributed by a starting QB. I'd imagine, though, that if your starting QB contributes a small amount to your overall fantasy score AND he's selected later on, it doesn't hurt to go with higher risk guys.

Interesting point of views I'm getting from these rankings diaries. Certainly enlightening me to the ways of building/constructing a solid fantasy team.

by sfgfan on Jul 16, 2007 4:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Interesting

I've got Culter ranked about 15th and Losman might be outside of my top 20. An interesting disparity none the less. Guess that's why they play the games, actually nevermind fantasy football rankings has nothing to do with why they play the games.

by methodrampage on Jul 16, 2007 3:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yes

I can see having both guys much lower than I have either of them (especially Losman, who is kind of a lock to be unspectacular no matter how well he plays), and it makes perfect sense to me.

After my research, I do think the list around 8-20 gets extremely close between just about everybody (which is why I can see Losman as high as 10 on some lists and as low as 20 on others without thinking something weird is going on), and I'm starting to see in practice why not prioritizing them in the draft makes sense. The competition is just too even in that range to be so picky.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over...

by howtheyscored on Jul 16, 2007 3:45 PM PDT up 0 recs