The 49ers anti-chic? Just ask Simmons

by David Fucillo on Sep 6, 2007 1:24 PM PDT in San Francisco 49ers News

As sure as there is sun in the sky, there is always a chic pick heading into the NFL season. Arizona occupied that role in recent years past after the addition of Matt Leinart to an already potent offense. This year, the 49ers are clearly that team du jour. People see the offseason spending spree, the 2006 explosion of Frank Gore and the general maturation of the rest of the team and they equate that with a division and potential playoff run. I think it's safe to say that we here at Niners Nation are a touch more conservative in our estimates, but are still high on the team. That's certainly ironic considering we're a blog devoted specifically to the 49ers.

However, just as sure as there are chic picks, there are those who poo-poo those picks. Exhibit A: Bill Simmons. The Sports Guy rolled out the first part of his NFL preview and decided we should be considered the "Popsicle Team":

The Popsicle Team

21. San Francisco 49ers
We've seen it before: A non-playoff team spends the spring and summer getting bandwagon buzz, and it builds and builds, and every time you turn on the NFL Network or ESPN, someone's saying, "I'll tell you what, this Niners team is for real." Then USA Today and the national magazines release the obligatory "Here come the Niners!" features, and their fans get abnormally excited, and by the time mid-August rolls around, everyone's handing them 10-11 wins even though they haven't proven anything. Invariably, this team struggles coming out of the gate, everyone freaks out and their season falls apart faster than "Californication" in episodes 2 and 3.
What does this have to do with popsicles? You could call it the Winston Wolf "Let's Not Start Sucking Each Other's Popsicles Yet" Test -- if the popsicles get broken out too early for an NFL sleeper, they're headed for an imminent disaster (like the '06 Dolphins). It's just human nature. You never hear someone say after the Super Bowl, "We did it, everybody believed in us, we came through for you guys!" It's always, "Nobody believed in us except the coaches and the guys in this locker room!" That's why true NFL sleepers shock everyone in September and October for a double-barreled impact of "Whoa, where did these guys come from???" (the media) and "Nobody believed in us!" (the team). You need both factors; they work hand in hand, and they are not negotiable. That's how the Saints did it last season, and that's how my 2007 Sleeper Pick (we're not there yet) will do it this season. Sorry, Niner Fans, you're doomed.

So we're doomed? That seems a little harsh. So I guess this is the double reverse opposite of the chic pick? We're so chic that you actually now have to pick against us? I agree that everybody seems to be on the 49ers bandwagon and that kind of annoys me after a while. I do want to clarify some of Simmons's points in regards to my views.

I do NOT think this team will win 10-11 games. I would like 9 or 10, would settle for 8 if the team improved.
If the team does struggle out of the gate it's not because they are a bad team. It's because that's the toughest part of their schedule.
I do agree though that it's hard for a team to say everyone believed in us and we came through.

Of course, as soon as he put the Raiders, Texans and Packers ahead of the 49ers I took his points a lot less seriously. He may be talking sleepers, but the 49ers deserve better than that.

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alright

I'm pretty sure Winston Wolf didn't use the word "popsicles" or maybe Simmons only gets basic cable.

In any event, I can't blame him for being a bit weary of hopping on the 49ers bandwagon just yet. A lot of times conventional wisdom is wrong and most of the people sucking the 49ers are just media tools who parrot CW who don't look past the first team roster moves.

I do believe, however, that Nolan is setting the team's expectations just right and that is what matters above all else. While some homerism will cause overexuberance, there are a lot of legitimate reasons to be excited about this team.

The defense will be improved, no question. The question is how much and when will we notice? The answer will likely determine the team's playoff fate, particularly with the rough early schedule. The offense should be improved, as Smith matures with his new weapons and a healthy Disease. There are a lot of new faces on offense, particularly at WR and Staley on the line, so how quickly the offense gels will be an important factor, too.

With all the new faces on both sides of the ball, a new defensive system and new coordinators, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 49ers get off to a slow start, especially in light the schedule. An awful start would leave this young team with a tough road to hoe (Sorry, Rutgers) to make the playoffs, even in a weak division. It may be more than they can overcome. If they can get through the rough patches they're likely to face early on and be within a game of .500 at the halfway point, they'd be in pretty good shape to get into a groove and make a real playoff run.

This team could be anywhere from 6 to 11 wins depending on health, chemistry and luck, but no one is exactly picking them to win the Super Bowl (like the Dolphins last year) so I'm not sure the Dick Test is all that reliable.

Lott's Prayer: Almost as many words as the Lord's Prayer, but the Lord wouldn't recognize any of them.

by Nosetackle Supreme on Sep 6, 2007 1:47 PM PDT reply actions

and also

Gene Wojiekioskioski (or whatever) thinks we're gonna go .500 in his own version of the anti-chic pick pick.

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Sep 6, 2007 2:38 PM PDT reply actions

For the life of me

I can't read Bill Simmons. The guy is a tool.

Here's an example of a typical Bill Simmons column: Pats, Celtics, Sox Nation, my wife buying wine at the grocery store, Pats, Celtics, Sox Nation, my kid's boring soccer practice, Pats, Celtics, Sox Nation, Ozzy Osbourne, Pats, Celtics, Sox Nation, Pats, Celtics, Sox Nation, Rocky Marciano.

Don't waste your time. He's like the print version of shrutebag Colin Cowherd.

by oooreebay on Sep 6, 2007 8:31 PM PDT reply actions

sports guy

I actually don't mind him normally, although as he's become more mainstream he's certainly lost the proverbial zip on his fastball.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Sep 6, 2007 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed.

I have always thought Bill Simmons was a freakin' idiot. He's entertaining, but when was the last time he was even close to right? I mean, I'm not one to say we'll be in the Super Bowl, but his argument that "They won't be the sleeper team because everyone expects them to do well, thus... THEY CANNOT DO WELL!" is one of the most ridiculous incoherencies I have ever read.

by spenczar on Sep 6, 2007 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Totally disagree

Yes, Simmons does write a bit about his hometown teams, but at least he's honest about his love for them and doesn't hide it like so many other writers/commentators. I find Simmons to be very entertaining, and he's one of the reasons I have a membership to ESPN Insider(Gammons, Neyer, Ford, Pasquarelli, and Clayton are the other reasons). His pieces are always entertaining, especially the running diaries on different sporting events and the mailbag and chats. He's gone a bit soft I guess, but that is bound to happen when you for Disney, it's a trade off for the financial security.

"I'd trade Barlow for a case of crabs and a nasty rash any day of the week!"-Sprint Right Option

by gatling on Sep 6, 2007 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Just another Don Banks

You never hear someone say after the Super Bowl, "We did it, everybody believed in us, we came through for you guys!" It's always, "Nobody believed in us except the coaches and the guys in this locker room!

You'll never hear someone say a lot of things after the Super Bowl. So what? I'm pretty sure plenty of people believed in the Colts last year and the Patriots in their Super Bowl winning seasons.

That's why true NFL sleepers shock everyone in September and October for a double-barreled impact of "Whoa, where did these guys come from???" (the media) and "Nobody believed in us!" (the team). You need both factors; they work hand in hand, and they are not negotiable. That's how the Saints did it last season, and that's how my 2007 Sleeper Pick (we're not there yet) will do it this season.

Ok so the 49ers aren't a true NFL sleeper, I'm fine with that. Why do we need to be? Can we not win 9-10 without the sleeper label. Is it impossible for us to make the Wild Card or win the NFC West without being referred to as a sleeper? How many games are the San Francisco Sleepers going to win? Beats me but there's no doubt in my mind that it'll be less than the amount that the San Francisco 49ers win. And what did the Saints gain from being a sleeper last year? They didn't make it to the Super Bowl and they just got their ass kicked yesterday harder and deeper last night than the Bears did in Super Bowl a year ago. Maybe being a sleeper is over-rated and we don't want any of it, think about it.

Last time I checked I've never seen the NFL Network out on the field making tackles, or some anchor for ESPN leading a team to a 4th Quarter comeback, or the USA Today putting any points on the board. Thus it would been pretty hard for them to determine the fate of the '07 49ers or any other team for that matter. Sorry, Bill Simmons, you're a douche.

by methodrampage on Sep 7, 2007 12:46 PM PDT reply actions