Is Mel Kiper full of it?

by Fooch on Apr 2, 2008 8:43 AM PDT in News Comment 18 comments

I ask this for a couple of reasons. I was wandering around the blogosphere and over at his blog Maiocco had a brief Q&A with Mel Kiper, Jr. I'll throw down some of the info from his discussion of potential 49ers options and then go further into my Mel Kiper questions.

On 49ers first round pick
"If you're asking. 'Who's the best offensive tackle on the board at that point?' It's probably Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. And I say that because he was a left tackle at B.C., and he's not going to be a left tackle in the NFL. He's going to be a right tackle. (The 49ers) have Joe Staley to be your left tackle. Now you have Cherilus at right tackle . . . Obviously as a right tackle, he drops down a bit. That's why he maybe gets into the late first round. I'd say a Cherilus at that point would be a guy you'd have to consider."

On 3-4 OLBs/DEs
"After Gholston, you'd be looking at probably Cliff Avril from Purdue, you'd be looking at Bruce Davis from UCLA, Quentin Groves from Auburn. If you want another guy. Marcus Howard from Georgia could be a fourth- or fifth-round guy . . . for the 49ers, I'd look at Davis, Avril or Groves to kind of fit what they're looking for. . . . I wanted to give you one other guy, Curtis Johnson, a defensive end/outside linebacker from Clark in Atlanta. He is another kid who fits the mold and would be ideally suited to be that 3-4 outside linebacker."

We've already discussed Cherilus and Groves. Of course it's always nice to get some later round pick options thrown out there to keep an eye on come draft day.

My question becomes, how good an analyst is Mel Kiper? I did a google search of Mel Kiper accuracy and came across a Football Outsiders article from a year titled Rating Mel Kiper. It primarily involved going through his overrated and underrated lists and comparing them to how things worked out. The best line after looking at 1993-2004?

On balance, Kiper appears to be neither a genius at spotting talent nor the hapless clown that some of his detractors portray him to be. He's had a good number of hits, but he's also been completely wrong about his fair share of players over the years.

Mel Kiper started his scouting business while in college and currently runs it at Mel Kiper, Jr.'s First Round. Is he just a guy who jumped on a trend early and is considered an expert because he was one of the pioneers? Or does he actually bring something to the table beyond the fact that he can watch a lot of film of players? I will give him credit for going through all that tape and learning about all these players, but beyond putting in the time, where does that leave him as far as actual utility?

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Staley

Maiocco also ran Kiper's comments in regards to the Patriots ending up with the 7th overall pick:

"Everybody criticizing San Francisco for Joe Staley and losing the seventh pick overall to New England, I would argue that Joe Staley is going to be a pretty doggone good left tackle as well. And in this draft, what left tackle would be equal to Joe Staley at that point? Ryan Clady? Chris Williams? I mean Joe Staley is pretty good. So would you rather have Joe Staley last year when he's already transitioned into the league and already had a season under his belt? Or would you rather draft a left tackle fresh that you'd have to pay that kind of money to as a seventh pick. Joe Staley was a late pick in the first round. I don't have any issues with that. They identified a guy they wanted."

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by Fooch on Apr 2, 2008 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

He makes a good point and it's exactly what I've been thinking/saying for the past few months.

Also, a player's ability to stay on the field is underrated, and as far as that goes the 49ers first round picks were amazing last year...

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7961194

That's right, only 3 rookies played every snap last season in the entire league, and two of them were Patrick Willis and Joe Staley.

by jaytierney on Apr 2, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a pretty awesome stat.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over....

by howtheyscored on Apr 2, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Better than the next guy.

I think I mentioned this last year, but I'll say it again. Kiper is probably one of the better (if not one of the best) "experts" in his ability to identify a team's needs and how much they actually need them. The problem with him (and any other "expert" for that matter) is that it's hard to know how all 32 teams will do. That's like a doctor knowing exactly what's wrong with 32 patients at the same time. It's just a very difficult thing to be able to do.

As for identifying the talent in prospects and trying to rank one over another, I happen to think he's better than the average person (i.e. you, me, or probably most fans). He has access that most normal fans don't. He has the time to utilize that access (i.e. going over scout films, past games, etc). So yeah, he's definitely not as bad as people try to make him out to be.

The problem, I think, is that people expect "experts" to know everything. An "expert," to me, is just someone who's more in the know about that particular suspect. There will be plenty of instances where the "expert" doesn't actually know what to think or may actually even predict wrong. It's not like predicting a college player's potential professional success has any kind of mathematical equation that can be found. So naturally, there will be a lot of deviation and therefore a margin of error.

by sfgfan on Apr 2, 2008 10:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

id agree

with the analysis that he's not a great evaluator of talent but he's not as bad as his detractors make him out to be. kiper got lucky that he started specializing in draft evaluating before it was extremely popular and made himself into something of a brand name. like sfgfan said, he's been dead wrong often enough, but his access and the amount of time he puts into studying the players make him worth listening to. if anything i think his shortcomings are due to studying the college game too much, and the nfl not enough. personally i think mcshay is a much better espn draft analyst, but i dont have as big a problem with mel as many do.

by sam23 on Apr 2, 2008 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Kiper's no better than the rest

Since the rating of Kiper article only goes up to 2004, I thought I'd add another one of his gems. In the 2005 Draft he proclaimed, USC WR Mike Williams was the Best Player in the Draft and virtually guaranteed a Hall of Fame career for him. One other player that should definitely be added to Kiper's "Overrated" list for 1994 is QB Heath Shuler. Kiper lambasted the Colts that year for passing on him and drafting Marshall Faulk. I just wonder, if Kiper is such an expert at judging talent why hasn't an NFL team noticed and made him a GM? I doubt that, as one of his supporters told me, he's making millions working for ESPN.

by Gremlin on Apr 2, 2008 12:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Easy.

He probably is making more money selling his publications and working with ESPN than he would as a GM for any NFL team.

Think about it. ESPN is probably making boatloads of money off of their INSIDER package, which, no doubt, Kiper is getting a cut out of. On top of that, he has enough supporters to make a lot of money off of his publications, as he probably does most of the work himself (excluding the printing and distribution, of course).

Besides, why take a GM job where not only do you decide your own fate (which is what Kiper continually does with his current role), but you also take on the fates of an entire organization? Everyone knows the draft is a pretty big crap shoot (not as bad as baseball, but big nevertheless), and even the best GMs in the league miss.

Let's see. More money? Check. Less responsibility? Check. It's easy to see why he wouldn't take a GM job elsewhere.

by sfgfan on Apr 2, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

in addition

there's a lot more to being a GM than running the draft. You have to negotiate contracts, work out trades, figure out very very very complex signing bonuses, incentive clauses, deferred money, and salary cap figures, and you have to make sure not to TAMPER when trying to make trades. it's a tough job and being a talent and needs evaluator (what mel does) is only a part of it.

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Apr 2, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the other thing to consider

is that there's no way to really know who's going to pan out. the bottom line is that the draft is a crapshoot so evaluating talent is very difficult.

also, teams do dumb shit. Part of Mel's job is to predict who each team will take, but teams constantly go against conventional wisdom and do something nobody was expecting. so just because a draft expert got it wrong, it might not mean they made a bad prediction.

Bring back the classic Uni's!

by wjackalope on Apr 2, 2008 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

excellent point

That is very true...Although in the Football Outsiders article it was taking his overrated and underrated player lists and briefly looking at the careers to date of some of them. Of course cherry-picking is easy to do.

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by Fooch on Apr 2, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly...

I mean, you can't really hold it against him for not predicting that the Dolphins would pass on Brady Quinn for Ted Ginn. That says more about the Dolphins (pre-Parcells) than it does about him.

by jaytierney on Apr 3, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even then

I still can't blame them for passing on Brady Quinn. That bum.

I keep reliving the moment when Steve Young almost fell down... over and over....

by howtheyscored on Apr 4, 2008 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll Tell You What...

Brady Quinn looked pretty damn good for a rookie when he got a chance to come in against the 49ers. I'm just saying...

by jaytierney on Apr 6, 2008 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce Davis

Of those who have seen Bruce is he comparable to the skills of Groves and what round is the consensus of him going?

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by mississippininer on Apr 2, 2008 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Bruce

I haven't seen him actually play (though I know there are some Pac-10 fans here that probably have), but based on things I've read, he doesn't sound very comparable to Groves at all. Outside of their physical measurements (height and weight), they're two different players, it seems.

Groves is a significantly faster and stronger player. Just based on measurement times, Groves runes almost .2 seconds faster in the 40 and has ten more reps @ 225 than Davis. On top of that lack of strength (and already lack of size), some believe that Davis doesn't have the technique to be a good pass rusher at the NFL level. Groves, on the other hand, is actually being scouted as a good pass rusher and has the measureables that suggest he could succeed at the NFL level.

Other than that, Groves is looking at a low-first to early-second selection. Davis? I'm seeing him being pegged as, at best, an early day 2 pick (i.e. 3rd round).

by sfgfan on Apr 2, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WOW!!!

I watched georgia play down here in COLLEGE COUNTRY...SEC and he is a beast. I mean the kid can flat out rush the passer. HE is a Mississippi kid so you know I am bias. We can really solidify our linebacking core with him. Think about it GROVES, P-WIllie, Thomas, and Manny Fresh. WOW!!!

"Niners Are Back!!!"

by mississippininer on Apr 2, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

check this out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV24D...eature=related

Check out Groves.

"Niners Are Back!!!"

by mississippininer on Apr 2, 2008 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce Davis

This is a name that I've brought up before and I've seen a couple games where he aboslutely dominated. He played OLB and DE thru his colligate career at UCLA. Groves is probably a better bet and that's why he's going late first/early 2nd but Davis is probably closer to a 4th round pick. If Davis is around in the 4th and they Niners haven't addressed OLB I do think he'd be a worthwhile pick.

Here's to hoping Albert Hanyesworth stomps on Alex Smith's head.

by methodrampage on Apr 3, 2008 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs