49ers Mock Drafts and Surprises

by David Fucillo on Apr 6, 2008 10:43 PM PDT in San Francisco 49ers News

After much delay I've begun the process of updating our Mock Draft Database. The first page of 47 mocks is updated with the other pages to be updated a little later on Monday. However, while updating the mocks I started thinking about the wild array of options out there.

There are probably thousands of NFL mock drafts floating around the Internet. I've got 47 on that first page of the database, and just that shows the craziness of it all. While there are definitely patterns developing, the spread of players the 49ers could draft is insane. Some of the mocks out there are clearly off their rocker and probably make their pick just so they can say they called it on the off chance it happens. A perfect example of this is Jared Donnelly from the FootballExpert.com network. He projected the 49ers to take Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart with their first round pick. Donnelly gave his reasons and claimed this was a value pick for the 49ers. Unfortunately, I really don't see how the 49ers can afford a value pick at this stage of the rebuilding process. Considering the needs on the offensive line and defensive line, does anybody really expect the 49ers to take Stewart? It's not a knock on Stewart but rather the reality of the situation. That projection is up there with the site that projected us to take Arkansas RB Felix Jones. It makes even less sense when you factor in the DeShaun Foster signing.

Anyways, just looking at some of these mocks, a range of players is listed, with none being listed more than 9 times and quite a few listed once. 47 mocks is certainly not the be-all, end-all of statistical samples but it's still interesting. Due to the size constraints of the special pages, I could only fit in 2 players (Hardy and Cherilus). Who else has been projected? Well they include (with number of times next to them):

James Hardy 9, Gosder Cherilus 7, Quentin Groves 6, Early Doucet 4, Brandon Albert 2, Limas Sweed 2, Kenny Phillips 2, Chris Williams 2, Kentwan Balmer 2, Mario Manningham 2, Dan Connor 1, Mario Urrutia 1, Cliff Avril 1, Devin Thomas 1, Calais Campbell 1, Lawrence Jackson 1, Jonathan Stewart 1, DaJuan Morgan 1, Reggie Smith 1.

Some of the mocks haven't been updated for a while so that also affects the numbers. Nonetheless, that is quite the array of players. Does anybody else think we go defensive back at this point or do Tarell Brown and Shawntae Spencer get the crack at replacing Walt Harris down the line? I've heard people discussing defensive back in the first round, but I just don't see it. A good pass rusher or offensive tackle would seem to be a very likely option at this point. However, as always, what do I really know in the end right? My own predictions carry as much weight as all of these mock drafts (ok maybe more weight than some). After the draft I definitely plan on looking back and seeing how these mocks pan out. Obviously some teams in front of the 49ers will make crazy picks that leave people scratching their heads (as could the 49ers). But, we'll see how it all plays out in a few weeks.

Tweet Comment 22 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Finally some sense in the Niners' draft logic

After all the talk about the 9ers QB position, we get this straight from Nolan's mouth:

"Asked about the 49ers upcoming draft, Nolan said they'd take the best player on the board but he did pretty much rule out a running back and a quarterback in terms of positions of consideration for those first two rounds.

He said offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and corner were possibilities and that o-line and linebacker were probably the team's most pressing needs."

That's from http://49ers.com/pressbox/news_detail.php?PRKey=4124&section=PR%20News

Here's hoping that Nolan's assessment actually bears itself out--especially the O-Line part, since we all know that Martz's system will be ineffective if we can't keep the QB upright. In his last post, Matt Barrows finally clarified what the 'family issues' that are keeping Jonas Jennings in Georgia are, which suggests that the fact that he's not in town for the Off-Season Workouts is not just a McNolan-generated smokescreen. (Then again, he also suggests that Jennings will be back for the May 2 mini-camp, which is AFTER the draft and any potential draft-day trade). If Jennings could kick inside to Guard and we could pick up a stud RT (Cherilus?), we'd have an O-Line consisting of Staley, Jennings, Heitmann, Baas, and drafted RT, with Snyder, Wragge, and a few other recent signees for depth. I'd go to war with that crew.

What I was suprised NOT to see on Nolan's aforementioned list, though, was any mention of a WR. Maybe they're banking on picking up a late-round guy using, which, based on Martz's pretty decent track record, might not be a bad idea. Or maybe they think they'll get more production out of the guys they already have with Martz at the helm. As Matt Maiocco mentioned a few weeks ago, Jason Hill does fit the "Mike Martz draft metrics" at 6'1", 204, 4.32...

by grantmp on Apr 7, 2008 6:05 AM PDT reply actions

moving jonas inside

not a terrible idea, but he's getting paid like an elite tackle and he seems to have the skill set of a right tackle. i'd rather draft an elite guard like albert if he's available and have jonas on the right side. staley and albert could anchor that left side for many years and hopefully we'd get the most bang for our buck out of jonas as a run blocking specialist on the right side next to bass.

by sam23 @ Niners Nation on Apr 7, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Albert?

I don't think it's really worth spending a first round pick on a guard if they have players who are solid contributers there as it is. I think the only reason the 49ers may be looking to replace Jennings is because they don't feel he could stay healthy. The 49ers really like Snyder at LG, and they like Baas at RG. Snyder is signed through 2011 and the word on the street is that the 49ers are trying to extend Baas soon.

If the team doesn't go tackle, I'll be very disappointed if it isn't because Groves is off the board. Then again, I guess if you don't go tackle, what else is there at that point? How do people around here feel about Kenny Phillips (S, Miami)?

by sfgfan on Apr 7, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Errr.

I think I meant:

If the team doesn't go tackle, I'll be very disappointed if Groves is off the board, too.

by sfgfan on Apr 7, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

albert

i think albert can be a dominant guard. i know tackle is the more important position, but i think a dominant guard has more value than a just good tackle. snyder's flexibility would allow him to compete with jonas for the rt position and/or backup every position except center. i like jonas as a rt. i agree that the pick should be o-line or groves though. i havent seen much of anything on phillips, but i thought goldson was being touted as a potentially very good fs next to lewis.

by sam23 @ Niners Nation on Apr 7, 2008 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions

WR

with the signings of Bruce and Johnson, plus Battle, Hill and Lelie, the 49ers seem to be set at WR, which I don't like. Lelie is probably the most likely to get cut, but I seriously don't see the 49ers keeping 6 WR's and 3 TE's. They've committed to keeping 3 TE. Drafting a WR in the first round just doesn't make as much sense (as it should), unless they can get a top flight guy. Frankly, I'd be surprised if they take one on day 1.

Lott's Prayer: Almost as many words as the Lord's Prayer, but the Lord wouldn't recognize any of them.

by Nosetackle Supreme on Apr 7, 2008 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Brandon Albert

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as regards the Mock database, I'm pretty sure Brandon Albert is out of Virginia, not Kansas.

by cornball on Apr 7, 2008 7:24 AM PDT reply actions

yea

and another one has cherilus listed at 233 pounds.

by sam23 @ Niners Nation on Apr 7, 2008 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Corrected

Thanks for spotting those. They should be good to go now.

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 7, 2008 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions

After the draft

Fooch, you said after the draft you will do a comparison to see who really knows what they are talking about. I like that idea.

I was wondering, did you do anything like that last year?

by jfainsf49 on Apr 7, 2008 7:38 AM PDT reply actions

no

Didn't do anything like that. I'm not exactly sure what would be the best to do it or what would be the best analysis aside, from "this site was way off," "this site was also off, "this site was right."

Any suggestions?

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 7, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions

A Percentage

You could get a percentage of how many they got correct in the first round, and compare that number with all the sites.

Or maybe if they at least got the correct position or something in case a team does something crazy early to negate the possibility of a mock being right.

by good as gold on Apr 7, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Pretty tricky

I mean "weird" pick early on can have a huge cascade affect on the susequent picks.

Here's to hoping Albert Hanyesworth stomps on Alex Smith's head.

by methodrampage on Apr 7, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Are you suggesting

some looney team, oh I don't know like.........the Raiders could throw the whole thing into disarray? Not with their solid record in drafting!! (sarcasm intended)

by illini49er on Apr 7, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Mayock vs Kiper

I wasn't really thinking about any site in particular. Maybe something like a battle royale between Kiper and Mayock. We/I could find their mock drafts from previous years. Then we could make comparisons.

The only problem is, I had no luck finding mock drafts from previous years. Granted, I only looked for about 10 minutes, and I am sure there are more advanced searches that could be done.

If anyone knows where to find such info, I could make the comparison.

by jfainsf49 on Apr 7, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions

battle royale

I like that idea...I say we forget about the past and start something this year where we can put together a front page list of their first round picks shortly before the draft, like their last mock draft before the real draft. And from then on each year we'll keep a running tally of how the "experts" do and factor it in to a Niners Nation mock draft contest.

We'll definitely have a contest here. Maybe everybody has to project the first round?

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 7, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Cool, but

I couldn't imagine projecting the WHOLE first round. I had a hard enough time making the 3 picks in the NinersNation mock draft.

by jfainsf49 on Apr 7, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions

But seriously

It wouldn't be that hard to put together your own 1st round mock draft. There's plenty of info out there in forms of other mock drafts incase you get stuck somewhere.

If you're going to compare mock drafts you can't really just rely on the specific player that a team selects but rather if the position is correct it should get some kind of consideration. For example you'd get 1 "point" if you had KC picking Clady and they end up drafting Clady but maybe you get 0.5 "point" if you had them taking Clady but they took Williams instead (a different OT). It's hard enough trying to determine a teams needs and when they'll address them let alone who they prefer within each position.

Here's to hoping Albert Hanyesworth stomps on Alex Smith's head.

by methodrampage on Apr 7, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Points

I definitely agree that you get points for getting it spot on and then you get partial points if you at least get the correct position.

Here's another option: You get bonus points as the round moves along with fewer bonus points for getting the higher picks and more bonus points for getting later round picks.

And if you get the Raiders pick right you win since they could take Dennis Dixon there and it might not surprise some of us!

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by David Fucillo on Apr 7, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Let's hope it's Cherilus

And not Hardy... that's all I'm going to say. We can get a WR with our 2nd round pick and the odds of it turning out are probably about the same.

by jaytierney on Apr 7, 2008 4:42 PM PDT reply actions

i really dont think

it will be hardy. he doesnt seem like a nolan or a martz type guy and i dont think the team wants another potential problem child wideout. i think those projections come from those who dont spend a whole lot of time mocking our pick and just see an unproductive wr corps in an unproductive offense and assume it to be the biggest need.

by sam23 @ Niners Nation on Apr 7, 2008 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions

That's it.

That's the problem with most mocks, really. Most people who generate mocks have knowledge of some teams, but it's very difficult to have enough knowledge of all teams. Not only do you have to identify what the team's needs are, you have to identify what kind of player the team envisions filling that need. For example, the 49ers need an OLB for their 3-4, and up until recently, Kiper had the 49ers taking Mayo at #29. Mayo, I think, is a stretch to play OLB in a 4-3, let alone in a 3-4.

With that said, plenty of the WRs that fit what the 49ers and Martz are probably looking for will be available between the third and fifth rounds. The first two picks will more than likely go to a pass rushing OLB and an offensive lineman. Heck, they may even take two offensive linemen, which I can see happening if they take Albert for some reason with their first pick, as they can still take a tackle with the second.

by sfgfan on Apr 8, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions