Missing Piece(s)
Listening to Mike Nolan on KNBR this afternoon (it originally aired last Thusday), it was obvious that he believes the team is nearly done with the rebuilding process. Maybe that's an exaggeration, but he clearly thinks that the defense and special teams are as good as they need to be and the offense, with the addition of Mike Martz, will be the best in Nolan's tenure. Whether this is true or not, I think most would agree that the team has improved by light years since Nolan's arrival. In fact, the roster has so much more talent now than it did three years ago, that there are really only a few more missing pieces. The subject of this post will be my take on what's missing.
There are a few positions that people who post to this blog have been up in arms about since last season. Actually, it's not accurate to say that there are complaints about positions - the complaints are about areas of the game. There's not pass rush, the O-line lacks depth and can't protect the quarterback, etc. I'm sure some will say that the team has failed to address those problems this offseason. I would disagree.
I recognize that BY and Marques Douglas played at a high level last year, but the additions of Justin Smith, Balmer, and Manny Lawson will make the unit more effective in pass rush situations. I also think the offensive line will play better next year, especially in the NFC West. I think Staley and Snyder will come into their own, Rachal will make a solid player wherever he lands, and Jeb Terry will be a multi-purpose backup with Wragge.
The one area I'm most concerned about is the rapport between the QB position and the wideouts. This is not only Smith's fourth Offensive Coordinator in four years, it's his fourth receiving corps. He hasn't looked like he was on the same page as a receiver since the first half of the '06 season when he was connecting with Antonio Bryant. Will Martz be able to fix that? I'm not sure. That's why I think this is the missing piece going into the '08 season. If Smith can develop chemistry with Bruce and Johnson, I think this will be a successful season. If not, the team will stall like last year.
Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Before I address your question, I wanted to say that I heard that interview and I couldn’t believe how relaxed and natural Nolan sounded on the radio. I’ve never heard Nolan in an interview when he sounded remotely relaxed, when he didn’t sound like he was dodging bullets even when they weren’t being shot. I’ve never heard this side of Nolan. The chatty Nolan. The charming Nolan. The Nolan with a sense of humor and a natural ability to speak frankly about the position of his team and personal coaching philosophies without pulling the answers out of a can.
It was weird. It was the Nolan that everybody wants to see in front of the camera and hear giving quotes. I wonder what changed… why is Mike Nolan suddenly capable with a mic in front of his mouth? Where was this guy before? And will we continue to see this new version over time, or will the man fall back on bad habits?
Seriously, I know that this is about the least significant thing we can possibly be interested in from our coach, and means complete squat in the context of what he has done and will continue to do as a COACH… but it was refreshing. Alarmingly refreshing….
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As far as what I think the missing piece is… it’s tough. I do believe in the pass rush potential of the defense as is, but I won’t hold my breath until I see it. I expect we’ll see more of the TBC that we wanted to see last year and that we’ll see Manny Lawson take a more active roll in the backfield (when he’s not making athletic tight ends completely disappear from the passing game, I mean). I really like what Balmer and Smith bring to the table on the defensive line, especially as that relates to creating versatility in the pass rush, and I’m excited to see what guys like Cohen and MacDonald can do at full strength (or, you know, any strength). I really like our linebackers as a unit, and I think our secondary – though still lacking some depth – was much better than the numbers would show last season and only got better this season.
So yeah, I agree that the defense is probably not missing any critical pieces.
I’ll leave Gore out of this question, and go on to say that I’m satisfied (not thrilled) with our receivers and tentative (but hopeful) about our quarterbacking. I think the improvement in coaching is going to make an imediate impact.
I guess the only place where I’m just not sure what is going to happen is the offensive line. Rachal, Baas, and Snyder (though I’m a Snyder fan) are completely unproven. Jennings is unstable and brittle, and as such inherently unreliable. Staley is very impressive. Wragge might be about as far as the depth of our, well, depth goes. And Heitmann worries me. He played so well before he broke his leg, and I have an easy time passing his struggles from last season off on the fact that he was, at least, still mentally recovering from that nasty injury. But as much of an easy time I have passing his struggles off on that, I have a difficult time buying into it… or rather, buying into the idea that another year could cure whatever was giving him trouble last season – especially if it’s mental.
So I think the offensive line is completely filled with question marks, even from the players who have the track records behind them. Was last season a coaching problem? Is the depth still as abysmal as it was? Is there any talent at all coming out of anybody whose name isn’t Staley?
And if the offensive line caused so many non-coaching problems last season, if things aren’t working there then I really think we run the risk of not seeing the visible improvement that we are expecting out of the skills spots.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
May 26, 2008 11:41 PM PDT
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First, about Nolan
You’re right, Nolan did seem comfortable. What’s more, he seemed candid. This was the first time I’ve heard Nolan say flat out Hostler wasn’t ready for the OC job when he was hired. And instead of pinning that on Hostler (or himslef), Nolan blamed Norv Turner. (And rightly so.)
Do you think Nolan’s relaxed demeanor is a sign that he’s resigned to his fate? In Oakland, Kiffin has been criticized for being too low-key since the rumors of his imminent firing. Would you accuse Nolan of the same complacency?
by Nineraguan on
May 27, 2008 1:42 PM PDT
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Second, about the O-line
I think there were two problems with the O-line last season – depth and pass protection. You can certainly make an argument that they didn’t address either of these problems adequately. However, I’m going to argue that they did.
With regard to depth, they lost two starters in Allen and Smiley. Meanwhile, they gained Chilo and Wallace in the draft and Terry and Mitchell (among others) in free agency. At first glance, the major losses outweigh the meager gains. However, you can look at O-line depth in two ways. Either you have a starter and a backup at every position, or you have versatile lineman all over the line. Snyder can step in a tackle. Rachal may be able to as well. Baas can play center. Heitman can play guard. Staley and Jennings can both play either tackle. All these guys are big, young, and unlikely to miss time for paddycake injuries (except for Jonas, of course). Thus, when Jonas gets injured, you can move your players around. Instead of having one starter and one backup, you have an adjustable line. I think this is where the 9ers added depth this year.
In terms of protection, you’ve got three guys who should be coming into their own this year with Staley, Snyder, and Baas. Jonas is starting the season healthy and don’t be surprised to see Chilo backing him up at right tackle. But that’s not much different from last year. What is different in pass protection is the OC. Sure, teams will try to blitz Martz’s offense to keep them off balance, and sometimes it will work, but sometimes it won’t. Sometimes it will cost them six. So naturally, defenses will play the Mike Martz 9ers more conservatively. The 9ers gave up five or more sacks in four different games last year. They allowed one sack or no sacks only once. In ‘06, they allowed 5 or more sacks once. They allowed one sack or no sacks in seven games. The difference was Norv’s ability to keep the defense off balance. I think Martz will have the same effect.
by Nineraguan on
May 27, 2008 4:30 PM PDT
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I wouldn't consider Allen a major loss
He played pretty poorly last year. Is that the word, that Rachal will be playing RT or just your speculation?
by methodrampage on
May 28, 2008 8:04 AM PDT
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Rachal
According to Maiocco and/or Barrows, the 49ers will look to try him at RT during the OTAs to see if he has the potential to stick before training camp.
by sfgfan on
May 28, 2008 8:56 AM PDT
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Gotcha
I remember hearing from like Kiper Jr. that Rachal might be looked at as a RT but everything that I had heard since pointed to him playing OG.
by methodrampage on
May 28, 2008 9:21 AM PDT
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Yeah.
I think the 49ers wanted him to stick at guard and be their “future Larry Allen,” but with the lack of depth at tackle, it makes sense that they either slide him or Snyder outside. Snyder’s being penciled in as a starter right now, so I suppose that makes Rachal the odd man out. The bright side is that there are people who believe he CAN play RT, so it’ll be interesting to see how he develops.
Aside from depth concerns, it could be that someone there (i.e. Nolan or McCloughan) is trying to push Jennings out.
by sfgfan on
May 28, 2008 10:46 AM PDT
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Couldn't agree more
In fact, I think Allen and Smiley were the worst players on the line last year. What’s more, they have zero versatility. Allen’s too big and slow to play anywhere else on the line and Smiley’s too small to play the other guard. Heitmann looked off last year, but I can’t help but wonder if that had more to do with Allen and Smiley dropping off.
by Nineraguan on
May 28, 2008 10:26 AM PDT
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1. Yes, the secondary was much better than the stats say. I would love to see a game breaking safety, but everyone back there seems solid. The Steelers’ and Colts’ defenses look a whole lot better when Polamalu and Sanders are on the field, though.
2. The pass rush needs to be amped up for the 49ers to be a viable threat in the playoffs. Whether or not all or even a few of those pieces are already on the roster, I believe we will have to wait until the season to see. I really hope Lawson can be a terror off the edge. Smith and Balmer will help, directly or indirectly, but will that be enough?
3. The OL is unproven at best. Staley could be a stud LT, and I believe he will be better there than on the right side…but he hasn’t played there at all, right? Rachal and Wallace seem promising, but I don’t know that anyone outside of maybe Staley and Rachal even has the potential to be dominant.
4. Nail on the head. If we can’t protect the QB, we have no chance of developing a rapport or chemistry or anything with the receivers. Vern Davis and Gore have the potential to be pro bowlers, and the receivers are just barely good enough on paper. A true #1 receiver could help the offense out, but if I remember correctly, the Patriots won a couple of super bowls without a true #1, and San Diego had been good for a couple of years without a true #1 as well. Without pass protection, no receivers look good.
5. I know this could open a can of worms, but…QB? Its a critical position, Smith might not have it, and Hill may be the poor man’s Damon Huard. Only time will tell.
I know these aren’t exactly “areas of the game”, but they may or may not be missing pieces.
by rufio on
May 27, 2008 8:38 PM PDT
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Pass Rush
Obliviously a healthy Lawson will help the pass rush but I don’t understand why you think Balmer and Smith are going to aid the pass rush. Smith has never been much of a pass rusher; even as a 4-3 DE (he averages 6 sacks a season, which is decent but not great). As for Balmer I’m not sure what any of us should expect from him but I doubt he’s going to generate much of a pass rush. Don’t get me wrong the pass rush should be improved from last year, although I doubt it could get worse, but it’s still going to be far from impressive.
by methodrampage on
May 27, 2008 7:24 AM PDT
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Help indirectly, perhaps.
I don’t think HTS and Nineraguan are saying Smith and Balmer will help the pass rush directly, but perhaps help out by holding the point of attack better. I’m no expert, so I can’t say if BY or Douglas were bad at holding the edges for TBC/Haralson/Green/Whomever or preventing double teams. Douglas did get quite a few drops behind the line, so maybe he was more interested in penetrating the line than holding it?
I don’t expect Smith, let alone Balmer, to get many sacks. I do think that Smith’s relative youth (to Young or Douglas) may allow him to be more effective at holding the edge than his predecessors. In the end, though, Lawson, Banta-Cain and Haralson will seriously need to step it up. The 49ers may also need to venture into rushing the ILBs, whether or be Willis, B.Moore, or any of the new comers.
by sfgfan on
May 27, 2008 9:44 AM PDT
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I'm sure they will help indirectly
But I wouldn’t expect a huge impact in the pass rush. Basically, its still my opinion that the Niners’ pass rush leaves a lot to be desired.
by methodrampage on
May 27, 2008 10:12 AM PDT
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Yeah
I think that with these guys (and the returns of the unproven but talented guys who played last season on the DL) we have 1) a lot more skill on the defensive line, and 2) a lot more versatility with the defensive line.
I still don’t see anybody on that line who will generate a pass rush on their own, and I still think that it’s a deficient line in the middle – which is an understated but significant problem. I do believe it to be improved, though, and I think that the extra skill and extra depth will be more effective at allowing our pass rush specialists like TBC and hopefully Lawson to get some pressure.
I do agree that the pass rush is still going to be nothing special, and we’ll still see the secondary stranded more than we want, but I do think that it will at the very least play like a pro-game pass rush. And that we haven’t seen in a few years. And that could make a huge difference considering the talent core of that unit.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
May 27, 2008 11:17 AM PDT
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Coming Into Their Own
First of all, Nolan didn’t stay pat. He not only got more help on both sides through the draft, the offensive line and defense, but he hired a brilliant offensive mind who can break down the opposing defenses. Martz developed quarterbacks with potential into MVPs, who is to say he can’t in San Francisco? Alex Smith is not yet anointed as the starting quarterback, it is still a 3-man race for the starting quarterback job. My hunch is that both Nolan and Martz will go with the quarterback who utilizes Martz’s offensive playbook the best, perhaps the one with the most experience, then ease Smith or Hill into it, so O’Sullivan might end up taking charge in the huddle. It will be O’Sullivan’s job to lose while the returning quarterbacks immerse themselves into Martz’s offense. Smith will learn from O’Sullivan and re-emerge as the starting quarterback while Hill stays on as the quarterback of the future.
Having Lawson back will bring more versatility to the defense, Justin Smith will be utilized in several positions, look for J. Smith to be everywhere. Rachal will compete with Isaac Sapoaga in becoming the strongest player on the team, having two strongmen who can bulldoze defensive linemen makes it possible for Martz to choose any play out of his playbook. The offensive line must protect the quarterback to make Martz’s schemes successful. Balmer won’t replace BY, but he will be a good successor and he explodes off the scrimmage, and while he won’t be the strongest player on the team, his strength is comparable to Rachel and Sapoaga’s. The pass rush will be better than last year, as we have Roderick Green, Justin Smith, Balmer, Banta-Cain, among others.
My conclusion is that the defense has come into their own, last year they did well against the run one game, and then against the pass another game. In 2008 they will do well both against the run and the pass. The offensive line will offer better protection to the quarterback barring any injuries. As for chemistry, Nolan and Martz both know that in order to make a run to the playoffs this year, the chemistry has to mesh early on- so they will not allow the quarterback controversy to alter the installment of the Martz offense. They will go with experience and ease in the regulars into their respective roles in providing continuity of how Martz wants the ball thrown and to whom (Isaac Bruce). After last year’s debacle between Alex Smith and Head Coach Nolan, Alex has to earn the starting quarterback role. That will force Smith to work with Nolan in-house instead of through the newspapers, if he wants to be a starter. I think Martz is intrigued with Smith’s extreme mobility, as all his past quarterbacks never had the mobility Smith has, so Martz will unleash Smith at some point this year, whether as the ordained starting quarterback or by easing him into the role.
by 16to80endzone on
May 28, 2008 12:14 AM PDT
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Wait, hold on, seriously?
Smith will learn from O’Sullivan and re-emerge as the starting quarterback while Hill stays on as the quarterback of the future.
It’s pretty odd to be considering a 28 year old QB who has already been in the league for 6 six years your “QB of the future”. Hill is 4 years older than Alex Smith. How is Hill considered the QB of the future and Smith isn’t? Either Hill has the skill to start now or he doesn’t I don’t seem him making a developmental break through at 28 or beyond.
Rachal will compete with Isaac Sapoaga in becoming the strongest player on the team, having two strongmen who can bulldoze defensive linemen makes it possible for Martz to choose any play out of his playbook.
This is an extreme over simplization if I’ve ever heard one. There’s a lot more to playing the OL than being strong and “bulldozing” defensive lineman. By the way, Sopoaga is a defensive lineman, he won’t be “bulldozing” anyone for Martz.
The pass rush will be better than last year, as we have Roderick Green, Justin Smith, Balmer, Banta-Cain, among others.
You’re totally right, Roderick Green is a QB killer with all of his 2 sacks last year and Banta-Cain is a pass rushing dynamo which is evident by his 3.5 sacks in ‘07. Concerns over the pass rush have been completely overblown and unjustified. I’m mean, the Niners have Roderick Green and TBC, oh shit, GaME oVERz.
by methodrampage on
May 28, 2008 8:25 AM PDT
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Seriously, and Not
If Hill has been in the league for 6 years without being truly unleashed, last year’s glimpse of what Hill can do makes him the quarterback of the future. For instance, if Smith fails, and O’Sullivan, even with his knowledge of Martz’s system doesn’t pan out, then Hill becomes the quarterback. Having glimpsed what Hill can do, that makes him the quarterback of the future. Smith has not quite proved himself yet, except for that one year under offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
Methodrampage, you’re right Sopoaga is a defensive lineman, I concede my typo error. i knew after I posted my comment that I made this error. I also want to state that alongside having a strong offensive line, we need players that have technique. Then again, to be successful this year and get to the playoffs, we need to be dominating on both sides, the offensive and defensive.
by 16to80endzone on
May 28, 2008 10:52 AM PDT
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28 is a little old to be the future
by methodrampage on
May 28, 2008 2:25 PM PDT
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Martz's quarterbacks
I agree that it’s inaccurate to say Hill is the future, but he could be the present. Warner was 28 in his first season as Martz’s starter. Trent Green was too. Bulger was 26.
by Nineraguan on
May 28, 2008 2:46 PM PDT
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But he's saying Smith is the present and Hill is the future
If Smith is presently better than Hill than there is no way that Hill could be considered the “QB of the future”. If Hill or O’Sullivan beat out Smith as the starter then either of them would represent the present and only the very immediate future. As I’m sure the Niners would start looking for their laser-rocketed armed QB of the future in next year’s draft.
by methodrampage on
May 28, 2008 3:38 PM PDT
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About O'Sullivan
In Part 3 of the interview that prompted this post, Nolan essentially says this is a 2-horse race.
J.T. O’Sullivan will compete for the job. Maybe not as much as Alex and Shaun, early on at least … these guys [Smith and Hill] are competing for this job because both of them, for different reasons, have the ability to score points and lead this team.
You might think I’m reading too much into Nolan’s comments. But take into account the fact that Smith and Hill are getting 1st team reps and JTO is getting none. I really don’t think O’Sullivan has a shot to start a game this season based on merit. Having said that, last season the team went through quarterbacks like Brady Quinn goes through back razors. If O’Sullivan does get a start, it will almost assuredly be because of injuries to Smith and Hill.
by Nineraguan on
May 28, 2008 1:33 PM PDT
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Not necessarily...
I remember reading recently (either through Maiocco or Barrows) that the 49ers are giving Smith and Hill most of the reps (at least during this past minicamp and during OTAs) because O’Sullivan has experience in the system, while Smith and Hill don’t. In a sense, Smith and Hill are playing catchup, and O’Sullivan is just refining what he knows.
On talent alone, Smith would be the clear-cut winner. This opinion is shared by Mike Nolan as well. The other two competitors, on the other hand, really don’t differ from each other that much at all. I don’t see why people think so highly of Hill, but O’Sullivan isn’t THAT far of, if at all. Couple that with the fact he can already run the offense and has Martz’ confidence, I definitely think that O’Sullivan can run this offense.
Whether or not O’Sullivan actually starts will not only be decided by injury, but by merit. I could definitely see the possibility that Hill and Smith BOTH have issues grasping the offense during the first couple of preseason games (with each playing probably a quarter and a half) and O’Sullivan shining in the fourth quarter. Whether or not it plays out that way is yet to be seen, but it’s a little premature to rule out O’Sullivan based on some interview from the head coach who just two or three weeks ago said it was a three man race.
I’m not blasting Smith or Hill, as I like both. I just don’t think it’s a fair assumption that O’Sullivan is out of it because the coaches have already ruled him out or because he’s not getting any reps. He knows the offense better than the other two, so naturally, the other two need more reps.
by sfgfan on
May 28, 2008 2:01 PM PDT
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Quarterback of the Future
I have re-thought my comments and yes, Hill may be the quarterback of the present, not of the future. Keep in mind we have a new offensive coordinator, Nolan brought in Martz to benefit Alex Smith, because if Smith does not do well this year, he will be benched until his contract runs out. O’Sullivan, if he does well and has chemistry with the Niner receivers, what can Martz say? Start him. Hill is good but seeing he has been in the league 6 years without starting, coaches might feel despite his raw talent at quarterbacking, he’s not athletic enough. Hill provides a spark when one of the quarterbacks are down, and the Niners might recognize that role exclusively for Hill. Smith knows that it is a catch-22 for him this year so look for him to compete, he won’t be handed the starting quarterback’s job on a platter; he has to earn it. O’Sullivan is someone that Martz lobbied to be on the team, so look for O’Sullivan to have some playing time.
The 49ers will announce who the starting quarterback soon. Can we fairly say that the one who knows the playbook the best will be announced the starter? Aside from having a good camp?
by 16to80endzone on
May 28, 2008 3:32 PM PDT
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Playbook?
I don’t think being the master of the playbook (out of the three) will determine who wins. It’s almost certain that Alex Smith will win the competition, as long as he shows he’s competent (i.e. make proper reads and throws like an average NFL quarterback). That is, unless Hill or O’Sullivan have amazing camps.
by sfgfan on
May 28, 2008 3:38 PM PDT
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By default Smith is the starter
For better or for worse Smith will and should be the starter come opening day. This needs to be Smith’s judgment year. The team either needs to move on without him in their future plans or they need to rally behind him. I’ll admit that the last 3 seasons have been less than ideal for Smith, or anyone for that matter; young or old, inexperienced or proven. However the excuses need to stop after this season.
by methodrampage on
May 28, 2008 3:43 PM PDT
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Martz's Complex Playbook
Martz’s playbook has a more complex system than Norv Turner’s. In the previous 3 years, they have given Smith a chance, but the buck stops in 2008. It won’t be about competency, all three quarterbacks are competent. The one who wins the starting quarterback job will be the one who gives the Niners the best chance to win.
The Niners are not into experimenting this year, putting Dr. Frankeinstein together. With Martz, the Niners mean business. Chopsticks time! I know it’s not Halloween time yet, but come October, we’ll know if the Niners are playing .500 ball or better.
by 16to80endzone on
May 28, 2008 4:04 PM PDT
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missing pieces
If Alex Smith can’t or won”t develope a good relationship with Mike Martz and his new receivers I am sure Shawn Hill will.
by mikemccwolf on
Jun 5, 2008 10:29 PM PDT
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Hill vs Smith
What makes people so sure that if Smith fails Hill will succeed, as if it’s some unwritten rule of the universe. It’s VERY possible that BOTH could fail. Heck, it’s possible all three of the 49ers’ top QBs can fail.
by sfgfan on
Jun 5, 2008 11:17 PM PDT
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So I just wrote and deleted a REALLY sarcastic comment about the Smith/Hill-Popular-False-Dichotomy.
Needless to say, it’s just about my biggest pet peeve right now. Even bigger than “towards” and “we’ve got” and not using the serial comma in a proper list; even bigger than Matt Cain fan dissension, character development in The Stand, and things my pets do that peeve me.
Shaun Hill =/= -(Alex Smith)
Come on people, it’s just alegbra,
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Jun 6, 2008 2:26 AM PDT
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Even bigger than the Buster Posey dissention?
Or are you a part of the crowd that really wanted Smoak?
In all seriousness, I just don’t understand the faith in a guy who’s had two career starts and didn’t show THAT much in them. Alex Smith has had more than two solid NFL starts, but he’s also had a lot of negatives. It’s possible that Hill will have those negatives, too, if the offensive line doesn’t step it up this season.
by sfgfan on
Jun 6, 2008 9:08 AM PDT
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The Pedro Alvarez Dissention
I would have loved for the Giants to have these three players: Buster Posey, whom we got already, a jewel lining in the Giant’s backend, Justin Smoak (Smoak sounds like an household name), and of course, Pedro Alvarez, but then again this world is not a perfect place with all the desired pieces in place. Like Fantasy NFL Football, and Fantasy MLB Baseball, this is not a fantasy world; it is where cookie-cutters with the ability to make the picks based on how high they draft and whom is available, those are the ones that make it happen, same with the NFL draft. It’s who got taken and who is waiting to be taken.
So I am part of the crowd who really wanted Smoak, to pattern his game after a J.T. Snow or a Will Clark that entices my fantasies.
But Posey is a pure hitter and we added a first baseman who is also a pure hitter, so I am not left to deal with draft picks that sucks.
As for the offensive line stepping up, the quarterback who wins the starting job needs to step up especially that a new offense has been installed. Despite the quarterback’s lauded talent, does that quarterback have rapport with his wide receivers with an offensive coordinator as a mad scientist?
"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."
by 16to80endzone on
Jun 6, 2008 4:30 PM PDT
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