How good will Frank Gore be in 2008, or why fantasy projections are BS.
A lot of message boards (for any sports team really) can get extraordinarily negative at times. I've noticed traffic often increases here when things are going poorly. Of course, since Niners Nation started at the tail end of 2006, there's nothing to really compare it too. The whole point is that I've occasionally seen people write that Frank Gore has only had one good year and thus shouldn't be ranked as high as he is any various projections. I find that to be somewhere between laughable and total BS. When you set the franchise rushing record, and follow it up with 1,100 yards on one of the worst offenses in NFL history, you're not a one-shot wonder.
We're all curious how Frank Gore and the 49ers rushing game will do in 2008 in the Mike Martz-led offense. Many of us are also probably slowly getting in the mood for another season of fantasy football (more info to come on a Niners Nation league). So I thought I'd check out what some fantasy football sites are projecting from Frank Gore. I won't say they're wildly all over the place, but there are certainly some mixed projections. One site even felt Frank Gore was due for up to a 10% drop in fantasy production, for reasons described below.
ESPN
Rank: 6
Stats: 1,068 rushing, 7 TDs/73 rec., 594 receiving, 3 TDs
I tend to use ESPN's draft kit. I think I (and plenty of others) assume their fantasy writers know a lot, but in reality, we all know anybody can make projections and call themselves an expert. In fact, before the season starts I'll throw out my random based on next to nothing projections, like these folks.
In these first edition 2008 rankings, Gore is ranked just behind Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson and just ahead of Clinton Portis and Marshawn Lynch. ESPN clearly thinks Gore enters a Marshall Faulk type of role on the receiving end. He's not a big play threat as a receiver so the low yardage total isn't surprising. What I do like is the increase in touchdowns.
CBS.Sportsline
Rank: 5
Stats: 1,158 rushing, 6 TDs/57 rec., 486 receiving, 1 TDs
CBS's projections indicate very little change in Gore's production. 106 more total yards and 1 more touchdown. Personally I see that as a little low considering the potential for a more high-powered offense. I suppose this would be working under the impression that Martz will help, but the offense will still not be all that good.
In these rankings, Gore is ranked just behind Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson and just ahead of Marshawn Lynch and Joseph Addai. Lynch is definitely getting a lot of love. If the receivers in Buffalo can step up he could certainly move up. Of course, we'll see how this whole hit-and-run business plays out.
Fox Sports
Rank: 12
Fox Sports hasn't listed stat projections, but rather general rankings. In these rankings, Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant and Clinton Portis are just ahead, with Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee right behind him. While I think Frank Gore is a better running back, the funny thing with running backs this year is that I could certainly see plenty having better statistical years than Gore, simply because of the comparable situations. Personally, I think Gore has a big year in large part because of receptions. However, teams like the Packers and Browns could be good enough to lead to very solid years by Grant and Lewis.
Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy
Rank: 19
Stats: 1,000 rushing, 6 TDs/60 rec., 500 receiving, 1 TDs
I wanted to pick a random site I've never checked before and this one came up first when I googled 2008 running back projections fantasy football. I think it's safe to say I won't be heading back there anytime soon. They added in a projection of the offensive line for each running back. For Gore, they projected the 49ers offensive line as "slightly worse." Considering how bad it was at times last year, I'm not sure it could be slightly worse. The only reason I can think that's the case is they assume Larry Allen didn't really lose a step last year. Other than that I'm not sure what to say. Part of their reasoning:
About Steven Jackson: Only 3 of the 10 RBs 27 yrs old or younger who had a dominant season followed by a disappointing one managed to improve in the next season and none returned to the level they were at previously...
About Gore: See Jackson...The difference for Gore is that his offensive line is worse than last year in run blocking but it is better in pass protection. The average decrease is about 10% in terms of fantasy points.
So there you have it. I could throw out projections from every possible fantasy site but there would really be no rhyme or reason for the projections. This is a small sample size, but there really isn't a whole lot to glean from this. So do you think any of these four is possible? Personally I think while any of them is possible, aside from ESPN's reception projection, I think they all are underestimating Frank Gore's potential production.
Just to throw numbers out there for the hell of it, I'll go with:
- 265 carries, 1,215 rushing yards, 4.5 avg, 8 rushing touchdowns
- 67 receptions, 582 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
Feel free to project away. We can always look back at this and laugh come November or December.
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10 comments
Comments
I don't think your numbers are outrageous
I do think that he will surprise everyone and have more receptions and receiving yards than anyone has guessed so far. If I am in the later half of the 1st round I will consider drafting Gore, depending who is available.
by rufio on Jun 23, 2008 8:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My take...
I think Frank’s rushing #’s alone will be right around consensus. I think he falls anywhere around 1100 YDS (/- 100) and 8 TD’s (/- 2). Where I think he will surprise everyone is with the receiving yards. He is already great at catching the ball for a RB and I think he will excel this year under Martz. I could see him getting close to 700 YDS receiving with 3-4 rec. TD’s.
In the years that Martz ran St. Louis and they were championship contenders (2000-2002), Marshall Faulk averaged over 1300 YDS rushing and over 700 YDS receiving. And in the year they won the bowl Faulk caught over 1000 YDS receiving!
Now I could see Foster getting more of the receiving load out of the backfield, but considering that Frank is so good at catching the ball, and that teams will be keying on Foster for receiving, that the opportunity for Frank to catch over 700 YDS is there. We all know what Frank can do once he gets to the 2nd level…he racks up huge YAC #’s. I look forward to seeing what actually happens this year.
I think I pulled my swagger muscle...
by BawLa on Jun 23, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Gore Having Above Average Year
I believe he will have 1400 yards in 2008 with receiving touchdowns. I give Gore 9 TDs.
All in all, his productivity will be above average.
"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."
by 16to80endzone on Jun 23, 2008 7:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is more along the lines of what I’m hoping for/expecting.
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 23, 2008 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frank Gore Projections
855 Rushing Yards 5 TDs, 715 Receiving Yards 5 TDs.
I may be a little conservative on the rushing total but I do believe that with Mike Martz’s favoritism to passing, it will hurt Frank Gore’s rushing total. Also the fact of an inexperienced O-line combined with an onslaught of great defenses in the first 8 games; Seattle (who they play twice), New England, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants, not to mention Dallas and a revamped St. Louis D-Line; it will be a difficult early going for Gore. Also this year Deshaun Foster and/or Michael Robinson will definitely cut into Frank Gore’s carries and he will see a lack of of goal line rushes probably to be supplemented by Michael Robinson. I do see Frank Gore having a huge receiving year as he has been the security blanket for both Alex Smith and Shaun Hill. Rumors also have it that he and Vernon Davis will be the two primary guys for the hot read options.
Next year will be our year! (copyright 2003*, been used each of last five years)
by StrictlyFootball on Jun 24, 2008 12:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this.
The less Frank runs the ball the next few years (and still produces in the passing game), the more likely it will be for him to be productive at the end of his contract. I really don’t want Gore to fall by the wayside as Shaun Alexander has. I don’t care if he’s running or catching, 1500+ all-purpose yards is very good production from a running back.
by sfgfan on Jun 24, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya
That’s pretty much how I feel about Gore. We should definitely make sure he is around for a long time because he is such a force on the football field. Also I think at his best he’ll be a 1,000 rush & 1,000 receiving back, but I see him more like Brian Westbrook: Undervalued but is the cossament professional, will do anything for his team, and if your not careful, can own you on the field.
Next year will be our year! (copyright 2003*, been used each of last five years)
by StrictlyFootball on Jun 24, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
projections for Frank Gore in 2008
First, I believe that Frank Gore is a true professional. He has the DESIRE to be the best running back ever. He reminds me of Roger Craig in his best years. Given what Mike Martz did with Marshall Faulk,I expect the same with Gore.
I think Gore’s numbers will be 1100+ yards rushing and 800+ yards receiving. Barring injuries of course. Watching what Gore does after he hits the second level is very exciting. That is why I think his yards receiving will be much higher.
Also I think that the much maligned offensive line will be much improved Flip floping the tackles is a great idea and I would not be surprized if Heitmann is moved back to guardwith Wallace taking over at center by mid season.
by mikemccwolf on Jun 24, 2008 1:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
frank gore
i think frank will actually have a really good season, i think that his yard per carry average will be like 2006 but with less carries, say about 285 and 1500 yards 9 rushing touchdowns, then 62 receptions with 560 yards and 3 touchdowns, a little bit over what most people expect, but in 2007, gore had no help, bad o-line, 8 guys in the box everytime, a sprained ankle, no pass offense, the passing of his mother and good friend sean taylor. Despite all of this hardship he had he still managed over 1100 yards in 15 games, and good reception yardage. Imagine how gore will flourish if the pass offense does better.
by ill23will4 on Jul 14, 2008 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
to add on
for everyone saying martz doesnt like running the ball, you guys are right but, martz realizes that gore is a runner, and knows that in order for this offense to run well, he has to run the ball, not 320 times for frank but as i said more like 280. In detroit, he didnt have anyone one like marshall faulk, or frank gore, so he passed the ball 550 times got sacked 60, and ran as a team for 1000 yards, thats why they did poorly
by ill23will4 on Jul 14, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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