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It's Preview Magazine Time: Pro Football Weekly

Aside from OTAs and a short minicamp, May, June and much of July are pretty quiet on the football front.  I'm guessing that's why the various publications put out their annual NFL Preview issues.  A lot will change in training camp, but for now, football fans demand information.  My first memories of this revolved around Street & Smith's.  Others have come along, including Athlon Sports and Lindy's Pro Football Preview, but for me, it all goes back to Street & Smith's.

We'll look at those magazines later, but for now I thought we'd start with CBSSports.com's Pro Football Weekly.  PFW gives letter grades to eight offensive and defensive units, a projected record and odds on winning the Super Bowl.  I've put all the pertinent information about all 4 NFC West teams in this handy-dandy chart:

San Francisco Arizona Seattle St. Louis
 Quarterbacks C B- A- B-
Running Backs B C+ C+ A-
Receivers C- A- B B-
Offensive Line C- C+ C+ C
Defensive Line C C+ B C+
Linebackers B- B A C+
Defensive Backs C+ C+ B+ C+
Special Teams B+ B- C- B-
Predicted 2008 Record 3-13 10-6 12-4 6-10
Super Bowl Odds 70-1 40-1 12-1 50-1

As you can see, PFW seems rather bullish on the Cardinals and incredibly down on the 49ers.  I have no problem with the long Super Bowl odds, but does anybody honestly see this team going 3-13?  I suppose anything's possible and I'm probably more optimistic than an objective football analyst.  However, I honestly see both the offensive and defensive units improving in 2008.  I'm not predicting 13-3, but I think a 7-9 or 8-8 prediction is completely reasonable and safe guess.  Furthermore, even though the grades aren't all that good, there is no one unit that is so awful as to warrant 3-13.

Right off the bat, let's look at the running back position.  Steven Jackson is arguably the better running back in the NFC West.  Even conceding that point, would you rather have DeShaun Foster as your #2 back or the combination of Travis MInor and youngsters Brian Leonard and Antonio Pittman.  Sure there is upside in those last two, but Foster brings more to the table this season.

Looking at the offensive line grades, it's fair based on last year's performance.  However, I definitely think the offensive line will perform above a C- if they can stay healthy.  The addition of Barry Sims gives them a very capable backup to Jonas Jennings, meaning they won't be sliding guards to tackle and tackles to guard.

As far as the defensive backs are concerned, I think this a clear sign of not doing enough research.  It seems like they saw the 49ers final numbers and assumed the DBs were just as bad as everybody else.  They did acknowledge that Clements played well under his "$80 million contract" (that we all know is NOT $80M).  While Walt Harris certainly regressed from 2006, the depth behind him has grown.  Shawntae Spencer remains a talented back up and the youth movement of Tarell Brown and Reggie Smith brings a lot to the table.

They wrapped up the preview stating that:

At the very least, the Niners should be a lot more interesting with Mike Martz in charge of the offense.  But with so many holes to fill on both sides of the ball, a sixth straight losing season seems more than a little likely.

Considering they predicted 3-13, it seems like they think it's more like a lock.

Other Stuff
As with every preview magazine, PFW has several feature articles on everything ranging from the 10 players to keep an eye on throughout the year to the top rated players overall and at each position.  I'm disappointed to say that Patrick Willis didn't make the top 10 players to watch each week, or even the honorable mentions.  Of course the top 10 were all the usual suspects on offense.  The honorable mentions did include Ed Reed and Antonio Cromartie.  Personally, I think you're gonna see something special every week when Bamm-Bamm takes the field.

As far as the player ratings, 4.0-5.0 goes Pro Bowl, blue chip guys who "consistently make big plays."  3.0-3.9 goes to impact players who fall short in at least one area.  2.4-2.9 goes to starters who get the job done or a "still-developing player who has the potential to get it done."

Coming in at #50 and the highest rated 49er is Bamm-Bamm himself, Patrick Willis with a 4.0 (for new readers wondering about the Bamm-Bamm, Chad Johnson gave Willis that nickname just prior to playing against him last season.  Suffice to say, it has stuck here at Niners Nation). 

Next to many players they included little initials, such as u (upside), uu (huge upside), c (player is at a crossroads) and d (begun to decline or will soon).  Willis is notched with a uu meaning huge upside.  Only Brian Urlacher ranks higher than Willis, while Lofa Tatupu and DeMeco Ryans are also given 4.0.  Since Willis has uu, and those two don't, he gets the tiebreaker.  An interesting point is made in his little bio:

Willis had one of the all-time great seasons for a rookie linebacker, leading the NFL in tackles by a wide margin...Such a high tackle total is usually an indicator of a weak defense, but make no mistake: Willis had an outstanding first season.  A fast, tough inside linebacker who makes tackles sideline-to-sideline, Willis could be an All-Pro for the next 10 years if he stays healthy and hungry.

Aside from Willis, the 49ers get high marks for Frank Gore (3.75, although I think there should be a u next to Gore considering the impact Martz could have on the offense).  Vernon Davis comes in at 3.4 with uu and in the team preview they think he could blow up in the Martz offense (shocker there).  Joe Staley checks in at 3.3 with a uu, Justin Smith is a 3.4, Nate Clements is a 3.7 and MIchael Lewis is a 3.4.

And just to cap it off, the man, the myth, the legend, Andy Lee comes in at 3.8 with a u.  You have to love a punter with upside!

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3-13?

Thats crazy talk! WTF does the media hold against the Niners? How could we get worse after what we’ve added this off-season. I think the Niners could at least split the division games….which is already three wins. Unbelievable!! Martz should be good for at least two more wins than last year. I do agree with most of the grades, which happen to be a bit above average….how does that equal 3-13? Madness!!

by #1TE.BadCaseofV.D. on Jun 30, 2008 10:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Drawing My Ire

I think 3-13 is blown out of proportion in deciding the 49ers will end with that record in 2008. CBSSports.com’s Pro Football Weekly is a little finicky and shortsighted. Patrick Willis is the next Bryant Young and even better, the Martz offense is “The Show,” we have three capable quarterbacks ready to step in at the beckoning (now that all three are nearly fully immersed into the Martz offense), we have an addition of a speedy running back in Foster to complement Gore, with Clayton in the wings, we added Justin Smith, Bryant Johnson, Isaac Bruce, Barry Sims, along with draftees Chilo Rachal, Kentwan Balmer, Larry Grant, and Reggie Smith, our secondary and special teams are very solid, our linebacking corps will close all the gaps, and…

We will do worse since HOSTLER is out of town and MARTZ is in town? With Martz’s own WR Bruce there for the helpings? With Hostler’s 5-11 Niners as compared to Martz’s 3-13?

Somebody needs new glasses or a cochlear implant…

or someone needs some Q-tips to take out the build-up of wax outta the ears.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 30, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions  

This is Bull CHIPS!!!

Seriously 3-13? 3 AND 13!!! I’m thinking they must being rolling their paper and smoking with it if they gave the 49ers a freakin’ 3 AND 13! My god I bet they have the Dolphins, Jets, and the Chicago Stoolies doing better than us! I’m sorry but this infuriates me! Here is my 49er list:

QB – C+: Regardless of who will be starting this year, this year will be the best year for either QB since Garcia left. With Martz in, the best receiving group in years, and a hungry Shaun Hill biting at the over-paid Alex Smith’s heels, one of the QBs will have a solid, Matt Shaub, like year.

RB – A-: Their have been many reports on A.P. and Stephen Jackson but when you ask players who, when healthy, is the hardest working RB in the league (after L.T.) they say Frank “Bowling Ball of Knifes” Gore. Who did Ray Lewis and Lance Briggs say was the hardest RB to take down, it wasn’t L.T., it wasn’t A.P., It was Gore. Gore is considered a hard runner who, due in part to his low center of gravity, will grind out those extra yards. Honestly how else can you explain his over 1,000 yard season last year with the worst offense in the league. Plus don’t forget Deshaun Foster, a grade A change of pace runner and #2 RB.

Receivers – B-: Bryant Johnson has a lot to prove and has a major upside to him. Issac Bruce will be a pillar for this receiving group and will help lead this team. Finally Arnaz Battle will shine like a Donte Stallworth/Wes Welker this year since he will be put up against third corners and has solid hands. I expect big things from Jason Hill and with the QB situation being pushed by Mike Martz to be the best it’s been in a long time, the receiving group will be a solid one.

O-Line – C-: Joe Staley will be solid, not great in his first year. Sims/Jennings will be less solid than Staley but will hold their own. I’m worried about the interior with Snyder, Heitman, and Bass. This will probably be the only chance Snyder will have to be a starter and not a utility back-up in this league which may drive him to play better or show he should be a back-up. David Bass is hurt and who knows whether that will linger. Heitman is already packing his bags as he knows he will probably be heading out soon.

D-Line – C+: This is a good group, not all star worthy, but good. Justin Smith may not even be playing at DE more than half the time and in this Defensive scheme the D-Line is regulated to take up players more and allow the Linebackers get pressure. Kentwan Balmer may be a potential breakout player.

LB – A-: Depending on how the depth chart goes this may be how the LB group will look like for most of the time in a game: Manny Lawson, Jeff Ulbrich/Dontarius Thomas, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith/Tully Banta Cain. Pretty freaking scary. Lawson (if he can stay healthy) will be a QB nightmare as well as Justin Smith, Ulbrich/Thomas will do the grunt work tackling and blocking, and Bamm-Bamm will eat the soul of anyone who has the ball. I see two Pro Bowl LBs this year.

DB – B+: With an improved front seven and better offense expect to see DB production skyrocket. The CBs will have more time to rest and pick-off errand passes thrown by hurried QBs and the Safeties will have a better go this year with a more familiar grasp of the defensive schemes. It’s recognized around the league that Michael Lewis, Nate Clements and Walt Harris are all, if not pro-bowl quality, border line pro bowlers. This group will be very much improved.

Special Teams – A-: Andy Lee will not be returning to the pro-bowl this season as his punts will be cut down because of improved offensive play. But they’ll still be sweet as usual when he does kick. Nedney will have a boosted year as the offense will provide more chances for him and his tricky/deep kick-offs always keeps returning special teams on their toes. The return game will be improved with a new infusion of talent as well as some stud special teamers.

Predicted 2008 record – 9-7: Here’s the Jist, it will be hard going early on with the Patriots, Eagles, Giants and New Orleans to face early plus Seattle twice in the first eight games. But in the second half and an easier schedule I expect all cylinders to turn on. Add in the fact that Seattle has those guys late in the year plus Dallas, expect a strong push for playoffs if standings are close. Also another thing to keep in mind is Seattle’s #1 receiver Deon Branch will be injured when we first play them, luck may be on our side this year.

Super Bowl odds: 40-1

Next year will be our year! (copyright 2003*, been used each of last five years)

by StrictlyFootball on Jun 30, 2008 12:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Sorry about some of the grammar issues above

Next year will be our year! (copyright 2003*, been used each of last five years)

by StrictlyFootball on Jun 30, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Unbelievable

I don’t expect many, if any, publications to pick the Niners to make the playoffs, but how can you possibly make an argument that they will be worse this year than last? I can’t even name one position where I think they’ll be worse than last year.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Jun 30, 2008 4:18 PM PDT reply actions  

The only ones I can think of...

... are related to the offensive line. While it’s kind of unlikely, it’s entirely possible that last year’s abysmal performance by this unit wasn’t an anomaly. Heitmann is another year older. It can be argued that Snyder and Baas both have a lot to prove (not to mention Baas isn’t even currently practicing) in terms of consistency.

That may just be nitpicking, of course. I entirely agree with what you said though. There’s almost no way that this team does worse this season than it did last season.

by sfgfan on Jun 30, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow. You honestly think that a healthy Smith under Martz will be worse than 11 games of injured Smith/Dilfer/Weinke?

by Viliphied on Jul 2, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not really

Admittingly I was being a little sinical. However, thus far a healthy Alex Smith has yet to impress me so I’m not holding my breath on him being the starter all year.

by methodrampage on Jul 2, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

???

Heitman’s only like 28 or something…that is definately nitpicking. Although, I agree there isn’t much more upside in him, I’d like to think he’s at least in a *plateu-like phase. Honestly, I hope Alex Smith starts all season…he gives us the best chance to win. He’s the most athletic, intelligent, experienced QB we’ve got on the squad. Albeit, it hasn’t been the smoothest ride since he’s been at the helm. But, you have to consider how terrible our entire offense have been the last few years. It’s not all on him. Plus, QB’s take some time to develop, it doesn’t happen overnight. Give him another chance, I think you’ll see a different Smith this year. Martz isn’t gonna start the wrong guy.

by #1TE.BadCaseofV.D. on Jun 30, 2008 8:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Heitmann

Of the offensive linemen I mentioned, I think I’m nitpicking the least when I talk about Heitmann. The guy may only be 28, but he definitely regressed last season. There’s no guarantee that he’ll bounce back, so hence, that position may be weaker this year than next. If he’s as good as he was two years ago, or if he’s even SHOWING he’s going to get back to that point, the 49ers would have extended his contract by now. Not only did they NOT extend his contract yet, they used a decent draft pick on someone who could potentially be his replacement.

I’m not saying Heitmann is going to stink up the joint for sure. I’m just saying that it’s a VERY possible scenario.

by sfgfan on Jul 1, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Heitman

Please don’t get me wrong, I like Heitman. From what I’ve learned about him as a person And what I have seen of him as a football player I have come to admire him.
Professional football is a mercenary business and Heitman has lost strength and quickness. I hope that he regains both in 2008.
As it was pointed out above the 49ers did not extend his contract and drafted a center.
I believe that before the season is halfway over Heitman will be moved to guard replacing Bass and Wallace will become the starting center or he will lose his starting job all together.

by mikemccwolf on Jul 1, 2008 10:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Starting job

I think it’s WAY more likely that he loses his starting job altogether than him moving to another position. If they play Wallace, it’s because they’re playing for the future. Replacing the younger guys Baas/Rachal or Snyder (i.e. guys under contract) with Heitmann (a guy who’s contract is up) is not conducive to doing that.

You’re right about Heitmann being a great person, too. I’m too lazy to look up the link right now, but the night he broke his leg and landed in the hospital, I think he gave some kid that was his hospital “roommate” his jersey (or was it A jersey?). Classy move for a guy who was also “down on his luck.”

by sfgfan on Jul 2, 2008 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

70 - 1 Superbowl odds?

... So you’re saying there’s a chance!!

Tinman

by Tinman17 on Jul 2, 2008 7:05 PM PDT reply actions  

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