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49ers thoughts from Football Outsiders

One of my favorite web sites is Football Outsiders.  The sister-site of Baseball Prospectus has taken football analysis to a whole new level.  However, I realized today I hadn't visited the site in some time this offseason.  I get email updates from them and nothing of note seemed to be coming along.  Well, I did a little combing of their recent articles and found some interesting stuff I had overlooked.  So consider this a Football Outsiders link dump of sorts.

Draft Review
Shortly after the draft, FO did a review of the NFC West's drafts.  They did a nice little review of the events that ended with the 49ers picking where they were picking in the first round.  Leading up to the draft, most websites emphasized how the 49ers shot themselves in the foot in losing out on a top 10 pick.  In discussing the 2007 selection of Staley they said:

Staley started every game at right tackle for the 49ers last season, and runs to right tackle improved from 23rd in 2006 to ninth in 2007. Considering the damage that Staley’s predecessor Kwame Harris was doing to the psyche of the 49ers’ fanbase, the trade seems like at least a wash for San Francisco.

Then looking at what the 49ers did with the acquired Colts pick:

That pick, the 29th overall, and the 49ers’ own second-rounder, the 39th overall, were used to solidify the interior of the line on both sides of the ball. This is the same strategy the Kansas City Chiefs used to set everyone’s hearts aflutter, but the 49ers received much less fanfare.

We all know plenty about the early 49ers picks, so I'll throw out what FO said about some of the later guys.

Cody Wallace: "Wallace cleaned up at the Combine, leading all offensive linemen in vertical jump and broad jump. Jokes about the rarity of centers bouncing around a football field aside, that shows great explosive power in the legs; if he can launch his own body through the air, he should have no problem popping defenders backwards at the snap."

Josh Morgan: "NFL.com’s bio of Morgan is awfully frank, saying he has 'a rare combination of size and speed,' but 'he’s also plagued by rounded-off routes, weak effort as a blocker and ugly drops.'"

Larry Grant: "Grant is somewhat undersized at 235 pounds, but has great agility, placing third in the 3-cone drill and fourth in the 20-yard shuttle at the Combine. That athleticism should come in handy on passing downs and on special teams."

They wrapped up the piece with an interesting tidbit on the undrafted free agents the 49ers signed:

[Robert] Jordan is noted for his physical and mental toughness, but the durability of this thin frame must be questioned; he broke his ankle in high school, and his collarbone in college. Another interesting prospect is Louis Holmes out of Arizona, a monster of a man at 6-6, 270 pounds, who would play an enormous outside linebacker in the 49ers’ 3-4. He has also had “brushes with the law,” so he may be terrorizing on and off the field.


Special Teams and the draft
Mike Tanier used to write a column called "Too Deep Zone" for FO, as well as several other pieces every year.  Just prior to the 2008 draft, he made a change and now has a bi-weekly column titled "Walkthrough," which appears to be a random assortment of this, that and the other thing related to football and analysis.  His first Walkthrough had an interesting discussion about college players' willingness to play special teams their rookie season (and beyond in some cases).

Most teams ask midrange prospects about their special-teams willingness during pre-draft interviews. According to Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout, coaches and execs can’t always take the answers at face value.

“Some prospects say they’re willing to play special teams or ‘do whatever it takes get onto field,’ but are then shocked when they are actually expected to do so.” Wright agrees. “Many of these guys need to swallow their pride and put their egos on the backburner. But some have a real difficult time doing that.”

Assuming they make the 53-man roster, I could see Larry Grant and Josh Morgan seeing plenty of time on special teams.  When Grant was selected in the 7th round, that was one of the primary pieces of analysis about him.  Obviously we won't have a better idea about this until training camp and preseason games.  If a guy can prove he can contribute to special teams, you never know when he might then get a shot at regular play.  It should make for an interesting camp.

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I still

hate the Josh Morgan pick. I hope Jordan makes the team/practice squad over him.

by sam23 on Jun 8, 2008 10:36 AM PDT   0 recs

Special Teamers?

Sometimes when we draft a Josh Morgan, as much some might hate it, his forte might be in the special teams, who can also play WR. When Morgan was drafted, one of the coaches sold him to Nolan and the 49ers brass, so obviously Morgan has something to offer. Otherwise, he wasn’t drafted just for the heck of it or to hang around on the practice squad, or to appease to people by drafting a WR, which to us may seem better than nothing, but you know what?

I love surprises.

Surprise me, Morgan! And Jordan, entice me, too!

I like players of versatility, for instance, if there is no room as a WR, that player is good enough to contribute to special teams. Players also develop in the practice squad and get their chance to show their stuff.

Sometimes it may not be as a starter, at first.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 8, 2008 9:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I know all that

but I still dont like the pick

by sam23 on Jun 8, 2008 10:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Jerry Rice Pick

Agreed, I was kinda “Josh Morgan?!!,” I wanted to choke on an apple because a Morgan sounded way off as opposed to a DeSean Jackson.

Jerry Rice was the 16th pick, not even in the top 5, but he ended up as the best wide receiver in NFL history.

Sometimes the no. 1 player in history was not the first pick, or will be. If Josh Morgan wanted a movie star role in Hollywood he had better change his name into a stage name.

DeSean Jackson sounds more velvety as a NFL star. Didn’t Jerry Rice have a velvety “Poodle” haircut?

Josh Morgan? We can call him an unique physical specimen, but that’s all I can call him unless he proves himself. Until then, the mirror is his best friend.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 8, 2008 10:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Eagles Snatched Up DeSean

I better stop talking about DeSean Jackson, because since the Philadephia Eagles soared down and swooped up Jackson, he is long gone.

He does make the Eagles a better team, because look at Westbrook, he thrived under the Eagle offense, and so will Jackson.

We have our own WR Corps to moo about. The 1848 49ers not only panned for gold, but milked cows, too. Moo.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 8, 2008 11:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

1849

Oops, I meant the 1849 49ers. Not 1848. Duh.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 8, 2008 11:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What the hell does Westbrook have to do with DeSean Jackson?

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 9, 2008 9:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Both have speed

Both Brian Westbrook, the Eagle’s running back and newcomer draftee DeSean Jackson, both possess blazing speed.

The question only is, will DS Jackson be as tough as Westbrook is?

Does it answer your question, what Westbrook has to do with Jackson? They’re on the same team, right?

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 9, 2008 11:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

RB vs WR?

A runningback is infinitely more valuable than a WR. This is especially true if you’re comparing a versatile RB (who lines up at WR) and a WR who won’t survive one game at RB. Como se dice? Apples and oranges.

by sfgfan on Jun 9, 2008 12:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Apples and Oranges

Apple with caramel dip makes the running back position enticing, but a cold, chilled sliced orange makes the wide receiver position a cold burst into the end zone where the ball is spiraling into the arms of a receiver.

Fact: It’s easier to swallow an apple than an orange, which has different texture. We can choke on an orange.

Is that why you say a RB is more invaluable than a WR?

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 9, 2008 1:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Uhm...

... what?

I don’t know, nor do I really care, what you’re trying to say with that analogy. I’m saying a RB is infinitely more valuable than a WR purely based on the discrepancy in number of touches. In an NFL season, the RB will probably touch the ball AT LEAST three times more than a WR, and in some cases, a few more times over.

by sfgfan on Jun 9, 2008 2:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ohm...

...What, yes…today is a hot day, feels like the upper 80’s and I am craving for a cold, chilled orange. That probably explains my far-fetched analogy.

Despite the fact the the RB will touch the ball 3 times more than a WR, without a top-notch receiver, we are reduced to moving down field at least between 3.5 to 4.5 yards per carry. One pass can be completed as a 20-yarder.

That’s three carries for one pass.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 9, 2008 2:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And one run can be 80 yards. And one incompletion is 0 yards. Do you see?

Anyways, you need to look at yards per attempt, not per completion, if you’re going to compare it to rush yards per attempt.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 9, 2008 2:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Fuck this, I’ll do it for you. Patriots stats:

Yards/Passing Attempt: 8.3
Yards/Rushing Attempt: 4.1

2:1 for last year’s uber offense.

An example that’s completely in my favor, you ask? Sure, Vikings:

Yards/Passing Attempt: ~6.5
Yards/Rushing Attempt: 5.3

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 9, 2008 3:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Gotcha

Yes, I do get it. As one who is writing Sports, I have to get acclimated to writing sports correctly.

sfgfan, I noticed here that Marcello gave an example of the Patriots and Vikings stats, and noticed that the yards/passing attempts were higher than the yards/rushing attempts, the Patriots 4.2 yards/passing higher than the yards/rushing attempts, and the Vikings 2.2 yards/passing higher than the yards/rushing attempts. Small maybe, but does that make a difference?

A long pass completion coupled with a long RB break of 10-15 yards will move downfield quickly. I don’t care what the 49ers do as long they have the ability to go downfield and have success with the red zone plays.

We do have Frank Gore who is capable of changing the game. I just hope he duplicates his breakthrough 1,695 yard year. And if Isaac Bruce has a very good year…both the RB and WR positions complementing each other..

I’ll drink a Mai Tai to that.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 9, 2008 3:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Differences

The nominal value is small, but there are quite a few other differences. My original argument was saying that a RB will touch the ball three times as much as a WR, which is what makes him more valuable. This will include receptions (i.e. screens, dump offs, or even if the HB lines up outside) and carries.

The thought is that your RB is a safer way of getting through the game. If I’m not mistaken, the average number of interceptions in a game far outnumber the average number of rumbles by a running back. In that sense, if the yardage gained isn’t that different (i.e. you don’t get THAT much less on the ground, on average), why not go with the safer method and sprinkle the other one in more?

This is not to mention that if you’re successful in running the ball more, you control the clock and eat at it, leaving the other team with less time. If you’re successful in the passing game, chances are, you’ll leave a lot more time for your opponent.

by sfgfan on Jun 9, 2008 4:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Valid Pointers

Yes, sfgfan, you made some valid points. I just think the WR position is a more sexy position than a RB’s position. I am not talking about a SEX-derived sexy, it is about the glamour of the position.

A RB has the brunt of doing the dirty work, the catches out of the backfield, all the little things. You see a RB pushing and pushing as if trying to give birth to a baby, but the WR’s flight to the end zone is effortless, especially to a prominent route runner like the former Jerry Rice.

I have been to the Pro Bowl in Hawaii and seen the WRs up close. Watching the WR catch the ball with man to man coverage is exciting. I could feel the magnetic energy from the football spiraling directly into the WR’s hands, it’s almost as if I could feel the pop, pop, pop, before he finally gets tripped over.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 9, 2008 5:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

When you're talking about...

... value and usefulness, it’d be best to leave the aesthetics out of it. It just causes confusion as to something that LOOKS nice versus something that IS nice.

by sfgfan on Jun 10, 2008 8:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually, I think the number of rumbles by a RB is much, much higher than the number of interceptions in a game.

At least when you have a guy like Gore who doesn’t stop rumbling.

-

Also, that sounded better in my head.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 9, 2008 6:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hah

Typos FTW.

by sfgfan on Jun 10, 2008 8:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not necessarily.

Sure a WR can catch a 20-yarder, but it only happens when the ball is actually caught. A QB only completes 50 to 60 percent of a his passes, and not all of his completions are going to be 20-yarders. A decent running back will get you around four yards per carry.

Just like it’s possible (or likely) for a WR to catch a 15 or 20 yard pass, it’s also possible that a RB will break one for 8, 9 or 10 yards. Just as marcello points out, you need to look at yards per attempt, as the QB affects a “good WR” as much as a “good WR” affects himself.

by sfgfan on Jun 9, 2008 3:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh shit, now I get it. Hey, they’re also both offensive players, that’s another thing they have in common. I can’t believe I was actually able to tell the two apart since they’re exactly the same.

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jun 9, 2008 1:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Coherent Fanpost Long Overdue

Method, you made me laugh when you said, “Surprise me with a coherent Fanpost!” That was a good one. Damn good one.

I do have a bag, and I’ll pull out a surprise.

It won’t be a bunny rabbit.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jun 9, 2008 11:33 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmmm

I think it’s interesting that Staley improved the running game to his side SO much over Kwame Harris since the only defense anybody had for Harris was that he was a very good run blocker, especially considering how much our running game struggled last season.

So I guess this just means that there is no defense for Kwame. He was just all-around bad.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jun 8, 2008 10:48 AM PDT   0 recs

TED and RT

Thomas and Rachal. Jennings gone, and Simms backing up both sides.

by AdrianUK on Jun 9, 2008 9:17 AM PDT   0 recs

Luis Holmes

I’m intrigued.

by methodrampage on Jun 9, 2008 11:14 AM PDT   0 recs

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