PFP 2008 49ers Stats of the Day

by Fooch on Jul 21, 2008 11:11 AM PDT in News Comment 6 comments

After taking my time getting through the intro information and explanations, I finally got down to business in Pro Football Prospectus 2008. Each team section had general essays (the 49ers essay was by Kevin Lynch of the Chronicle). After that they threw out a variety of statistical information about the team and individual players. One of my favorite sections was a discussion of strategic tendencies by a team as compared to the rest of the league.

Running on Second and Long
As a football fan, one of the most frustrating plays is the running play on 2nd and long. I realize you can't always pass, but for a poor offense that often seems like a give-up type of play. I can't count the number of times the 49ers had 2nd and long and handed off to Gore to cut a 2nd and 14 to 3rd and 9.

Well, the 49ers ran on second and long 42% of the time, good for sixth in the NFL. Would you consider this a lack of confidence in Smith or whomever else was QB? My 2007 PFP is at home so when I get back I'm gonna check it out and see what the numbers were in 2006.

Sacks by LB/DB
We all realize the 49ers generated very little in terms of a pass rush last season. It shows in the statistics as well. For the average team, defensive linemen had 62.2% of their teams sacks. The 49ers defensive linemen contributed 40.7% of their sacks. In the straight up 3-4 the defensive linemen don't get as many sacks as the 4-3, but even if the 49ers ran the 4-3 100% of the time last season I don't imagine their defensive linemen would have loaded up on sacks. This stat will be interesting to watch this season with the addition of Justin Smith and Kentwan Balmer. It's especially interesting to see where Smith gets any of his sacks. He may be lining up at outside linebacker or in some sort of elephant role, so we'll see where he gets pressure.

Runs, Power situation
A power situation is third or fourth down with 1-2 yards to go, or at the goal line on any down with 1-2 yards to go. In this situation, the 49ers ran the ball 47% of the time, good for 30th in the league. The average team ran in this situation 62% of the time. So, does the 49ers relative lack of rushing in this situation indicate a lack of confidence in the offensive line? When you've got a guy like Frank Gore, I'd imagine you'd want to use him as much as possible. One possible explanation I just thought of was that maybe trailing so often they wanted to pick up larger chunks of yards and a short run for a first down would take too much time of the clock given the situation. Any thoughts?

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running the ball on second and long,etc.

Like you iam tired of watching the niners run the ball on second and long. However with Martz calling the plays I expect that those numbers will be reduced by as much as 50%. With Martz a pass is as equal as a run,especially in this kind of situation.
I definately do not expect that the down lineman’s sack numbers will not improve this year. But I expect the lb’s sack numbers will improve dramatically. The niners have group of stud linebackers!
For the same reason as above I do not expect that the runs vs. passes in the “power” situations will change much although now that Martz has a superior running back he just might use Gore more like Craig was used in these third or fourth and short situations.

by mikemccwolf on Jul 21, 2008 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know...

... I think a run in 2nd and long to gain 4 or 5 yards is fairly valuable. If a RB is averaging 4 yards per carry and it’s 2nd and 13, then it’s very possible that a running play will make it 3rd and 9. On the other hand, if the QB has a 58% completion percentage, then that’s almost a 1:2 chance that you’re going to end up with 3rd and 13 if you call a pass play (assuming your offensive line doesn’t foul it up and give up a sack).

I’m not saying the run is more valuable, as a pass in that situation would potentially yield more, but I can appreciate that the ratio is kind of close to 50%. Think about it this way: even if the running back gets three yards, then it’s 3rd and 10 most of the time (by most, I’m thinking probably closer to 75% than 51%). If you pass the ball, you’ll only be gaining yards 58% percent of the time, and you risk losing more yards in doing so.

I think 42% of 2nd and long plays as runs is a good number. It’s definitely better than your proposed 21% (which is what you get when you cut last year’s number by 50%). At 21%, I’m pretty sure your pass success rate will be even lower than the generic 58% I threw up above.

by sfgfan on Jul 21, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Provided Smith’s (or Hill’s) passing percentage with relation to Gore is up to par (65-70%), then it may be more lucrative to increase the number of short dumps to Gore on 2nd and long. They could even toss in a few PAs just to toy with the defenses.

by Cruithear on Jul 21, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Short dumps

Short dumps may work, but I don’t agree with substituting half of the runs they ran last year on 2nd and long for screen passes. I agree that they could (and should) be worked in a bit, but who’s to say that those short dumps aren’t part of the other 58% already?

As for the PA suggestion, that only works if you establish that you’re willing to run on 2nd and long, which is what keeping the percentage closer to 42% would do. I agree that they should be worked in (or used more) in the 58% that the team called passing plays last year.

by sfgfan on Jul 22, 2008 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

short dump != screen pass (necessarily)

by Viliphied on Jul 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Similar results.

They generally have similar results. And in any case, I still don’t agree that half of the running plays run on 2nd and long should be substituted for dump offs, pretty much for the reasons I’ve already stated. I agree that they should exist, but I don’t think they need to cut into the run plays. They just need to actually be run (or executed better, if they already are run).

by sfgfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs