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Semi-rational irrational prediction: 49ers TE Vernon Davis will make the Pro Bowl this season

So what exactly is a semi-rational irrational prediction?  Well, it's irrational because there is very little new information that would make this a valid prediction.  We all are hoping certain things happen, but it's a long season and considering we haven't reached training camp, who knows what will happen.  I term it semi-rational though because I do have some sound reasoning for this prediction, or at least reasonably sound I guess.  Feel free to create your own semi-rational irrational prediction, or just mock mine.

Vernon Davis finished 2007 with 52 receptions for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Those are respectable numbers for an anemic offense, but nothing to write home about.  However, among the 47 NFL tight ends with at least 1 reception and/or 1 receiving yard, The Disease finished 4th in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and 6th in touchdowns.  The tight ends ahead of him were the usual suspects, including Jason Witten, Chris Cooley and Jeremy Shockey.

Jason Witten finished with 96 receptions, 1,145 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Chris Cooley finished with 66 receptions, 786 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Jeremy Shockey finished with 57 receptions, 619 yards and 3 touchdowns.

In the new Mike Martz offense, Frank Gore is expected to have a big year in the Marshall Faulk role.  We're all hoping Alex Smith/Shaun Hill is able to put up big numbers, or at least better than average.  However, of all the offensive weapons, I think Vernon Davis is due to have the big breakout season.  I remain completely convinced that Vernon Davis will soon be joining the continuing evolution of the tight end position with the likes of Antonio Gates. 

Mike Martz has not used the tight end much in his offense, but he's never had a tight end that can match the rare combination of size and speed The Disease possesses.  When Davis is lined up as a tight end, no linebacker can cover him.  Check the video from the Bengals game last season where Davis made the linebacker look absolutely helpless on this touchdown catch (at the 1:15 mark and ignore the Limp Bizkit).  At the same time, he is too big and physical for a corner or safety to cover him like normal.

While there are clearly several keys to the offense turning things around (o-line, QB, RB, WR, etc...), if this team makes the playoffs, Vernon Davis will have had a big year.  There was a lot of discussion during OTAs about the installation of "hot reads."  I think Davis will be one of the primary beneficiaries.  Furthermore, I consider Davis more of a receiver than a tight end (even though he can fill both roles obviously).  As such, drafted receivers often take 2 or 3 years before they make that leap in greatness.  This is his 3rd year and I think the leap is at hand.

As far as what it will take to make it to the Pro Bowl?  Well I'll give you this prediction and say that it will be sufficient to get him in.  Davis will finish the season with 73 receptions, 805 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Maybe it's a little irrational to think he'll make the leap, but I think there is some sound reasoning for that position.

So, let's open the floor.  You're more than welcome to criticize or support my prediction, but I'd love to hear a single semi-rational irrational prediction from you folks.  I'm sure there's one guy on the team that you just have a gut-feeling about how he'll do and want to shout it on the rooftops.  So, let's hear it.  And even better, I've created a separate section for this called Preview.  So it'll be that much easier to find this wild and crazy predictions when the season comes to a close.

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I will get to my prediction in a second.

First, I would like to share a little anecdote with you guys.

Way back when, I’m talking about during the horse and carriage days, when people still left their doors unlocked at night.

I was just a wee lad, entering my freshman year in high school. My Enlish teacher, Coach Nunez, told us to stand, introduce ourselves, and tell the class, who we thought would win the Super Bowl that year. I stood, told the class my name, and proudly stated that the Niners would win it all that year (mind you, I live/d in Texas, so I had to dogde a few horseshoes and cowpatties that were thrown at me, just like Neo dodging bullets in the Matrix, no kidding).

Low and behold the Niners pulled a miracle out of their ass and brought home the hardware.

Boys, I’m telling you, I was elated.

Of course noone else will remember this.

But I carry it with me to this day.

I like to think of myself as a little Nostradomus Jr.

Also, many of you probably realize this was in ‘94 and not in the horse and carriage days.

Here is my prediction for this year: For one reason or another Alex Smith will no longer be the starter. Shaun “Sugar” Hill will not be the starter. That’s right, that leaves us with J.T. “Jeff Garcia’s Long Lost Twin” O’Sullivan. He will take the helm at some point and never look back. I figure this because, look at our team last year, they could barely grasp “Hostel’s” offense. Factor in Martz’s complicated offense with our team that couldn’t grasp Hostler’s and we got a huge mess. Our team will need a leader that has more experience (as little as it may be) in a Mike Martz offense—O’Sullivan is that guy.

Fooch, when the aliens land and say, "Take me to your leader," I'm taking them to you!

by jfainsf49 on Jul 3, 2008 7:34 AM PDT   0 recs

So, Nostradmus Jr..........

2012: yes or no?

MURS for President!!!!!!!

by jtoj on Jul 3, 2008 8:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL....

First of all, it’s Mr. Nostradamus Jr. to you Sir…

Now where did I put that damn crystal ball…oh there it is…thanks Mom…she’s the best

I must now enter a trance like state…ha na na na…ha na na…(me speaking in tounges)...then I must burn some incense and drink a Colt 45…

Okay now I am ready…in the year 2012, there will be a lockout, not football for you, no football for me…

(I hope it is clear that this is all in fun, especially that part about you calling me “Mr.” Nostradamus Jr…)

Fooch, when the aliens land and say, "Take me to your leader," I'm taking them to you!

by jfainsf49 on Jul 3, 2008 8:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Mayan Calendar

People say the world ends in 2012….I say the world begins

If the world does end in 2012….Patrick Willis may be the only one to survive, oh and maybe Chuck Norris’ chin.

by #1TE.BadCaseofV.D. on Jul 6, 2008 10:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But only because Chuck Norris’s chin was once blessed by Patrick Willis.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 6, 2008 12:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh yea, I almost forgot...

...Hope everyone has a safe and happy 4th of July weekend!

Good day.

Fooch, when the aliens land and say, "Take me to your leader," I'm taking them to you!

by jfainsf49 on Jul 3, 2008 7:38 AM PDT   0 recs

As Per Da Disease Der Rampant on Field

Simply stated, Vernon Davis has the physical tools to have a Pro Bowl year, after all, they choose Pro Bowlers from every position.

The Martz offense is designed, that if Davis does what Martz tells him what to and how to exactly perform the intricacies of the complex Martz offense, Davis will get the ball.

Martz’s offense will dictate on who gets the ball depending on execution of that offense. Let’s say if there are two players in close proximity, both have their number ready to be called in getting the ball, one is running the route exactly as the play calls for it to, the other is slightly off-route, who will get the ball?

Let’s hope it will be Davis, and often enough to showcase his physical prowess at the Pro Bowl.

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jul 3, 2008 8:49 AM PDT   0 recs

Manny Lawson will blow up...

I remember feeling my heart sink when I found out he was injured last year, I just knerw it would hurt us.

He was really coming on strong and, I think, was having a huge impact early on. I think he could end up being a pro bowl caliber player and this year he will continue where he left off….

Young to Rice. Touchdown.

by Call It The Throw on Jul 3, 2008 10:35 AM PDT   0 recs

Semi-rational irrational prediction; Dashon Goldon will be a great starter

Pretty much everybody loves Mark Roman, he’s a great guy, but if great guys made a Superbowl caliber team, than the 49ers would have won the last two hands down. I feel bad for saying this, but Roman, well…, sucks. Roman has played 8 seasons, and barring his rookie year where he played half, has only missed 6 games over his career. You would think that, with that type of continuous play time, he would have raked some serious stats… but that’s not the case. Compared to his counterpart safety, Michael Lewis, he is shamefully behind in all relevant categories. Michael Lewis has 670 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 11 interceptions, 49 pass deflections, and 11 forced fumbles. Despite Roman playing 22 more games than Lewis he has only amassed 503 tackles, 7 sacks, 5 interceptions, 41 pass deflections and 4 forced fumbles. You can’t even say he’s better at one aspect of being a safety than he is at another, cause both suck. As a physical corner he is bad because of his low tackle count and forced fumbles, and you can’t say he is good at coverage because his pass deflections and interceptions are weak. No matter how you look at it, Roman just ain’t that good.

Dashon Goldson has been a S-T-U-D in practice and pre-season so why not let him take the reins. He has crazy coverage skills and we all know Lewis and Nate Clements are more physical defensive backs. He would be a nice cushion to let those guys tackle. Also I think he would be great at tackling as well because he has a big frame of 6’2” and 210 pounds. He could definitely hold his own.

Next year will be our year! (copyright 2003*, been used each of last five years)

by StrictlyFootball on Jul 3, 2008 11:24 AM PDT   0 recs

Goldson

He will get his chance to shine. No matter if he starts or not, I think he’s the 49ers “go-to” guy for the secondary in their “big” nickel package. They use that package a lot against the NFC West, as they want to be able to stop the pass without giving too much on the run. If he shines in those games (which account for over 1/3 of the season’s games), you can’t help but think the 49ers would oust him into the starting lineup.

by sfgfan on Jul 3, 2008 11:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Some missing tools

First of all, I never really got on “The Disease” as a nickname. His official handle coming out of Maryland is “The Duke” which, in my opinion, sounds like someone I want on my team as opposed to a “disease”. Besides, The Disease has already been taken by a few people, TO, Chad Johnson, and others.

After watching Davis for 2 years here are some things that stick out.

So far his 4.3 40 speed hasn’t really been seen. His first career catch went for TD against the Cards in 2006 and he looked REALLY fast. Since then, there hasn’t been real speed shown.
Also, Davis’ incredible size and strength allow him to take on the first tackler pretty easily, this leaves him open to fumbles as he gets hit by the second and third guy. His big size also plays a role in DB’s hitting him in the knees to bring him down (Polomalu last year). This could slow him down quite a bit over the years.
Another thing I’ve noticed is that Davis appears clumsy sometimes. I wonder how good of a basketball player he is? The best tight ends are very coordinated and have really good feet. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen Davis trip or get tripped up by his feet. When this happens, all the size and speed in the world won’t help.
Finally, I am a little bit concerned about Davis’ football aptitude. I read an article somewhere (no link) that mentioned that Davis might be learning disabled. Again, all the size and speed in the world won’t help if you don’t know what you’re doing. Not to mention the team penalties this causes – illegal motion, illegal formation, false starts, etc.

After saying all this, I hope that I am wrong. I would love to see this guy take off and be some sort of unstoppable hybrid TE, WR, H-Back.

As for predictions here is mine, it’s not really player specific but…http://bleacherreport.com/articles/32297-previewprediction-for-week-1-cardinals-at-49ers
He is excellent on screens and I would love to see more of that.
I would really love to see him stretch the deep middle of the field with a few big catches this year.
I would like to see him run some reverses from the H-back position.

by Redding49ers on Jul 3, 2008 11:52 AM PDT   0 recs

I call him either the "Beast" or the "Freak"

But I think he’s called the Disease more than anything else because his initials V.D. is an acronym for Venereal “Disease”.

Next year will be our year! (copyright 2003*, been used each of last five years)

by StrictlyFootball on Jul 3, 2008 12:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

VD

People kept referring to him as VD and we don’t need that :)

Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!

by Fooch on Jul 3, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

I think the initials “VD” has been caught on with some kind of rhetoric on it’s close resemblance to the word Venereal Disease. I won’t call him the Disease anymore.

I think people were commenting trying to do it with humor, but if we actually say it to Vernon Davis’s face, we won’t be able to run from him.

We’ll have to call out “guard, guard!”

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jul 3, 2008 11:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No, you guys are reading it all wrong. The Disease as nickname on NinersNation was always designed to imply that Davis was a plague on opposing defenses, that he systematically targeted their weaknesses and crippled their overall health for the game. He’s like the kind of herpes you give to everybody, but never actually have yourself. You know, fantasy herpes.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 4, 2008 2:24 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So you judge players by their nickname?

Well sir, you’ve got one hell of a future as a GM.

by methodrampage on Jul 3, 2008 9:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Very rational

I think it’s highly possible Davis racks those numbers up. As far as his name goes I think it’s kinda funny that his initials are an acronym for venereal disease… obviously, its in my screen name. But you guys are lookin’ at it wrong. He’s not the disease of our team, he’s the disease of any one he faces. Imagine…. opposing defenses being diseased by this guy. I’d never call him herpes or crabs to his face though, cause he is a “Beast/Freak.” As far as him having some sort of learning disability, I’m not so sure. But, I do know Frank Gore is actually dislexic* (not sure how thats spelled, I’m a little stupid myself.) Martz says it’s not slowin’ him down at all, in terms of learning the offense. Besides, TE is one of the most demanding positions to learn in the Pros, so many responsibilities, if your’e going to be a true TE. I like someones prediction that Manny will blow up this year, cause I fully agree. Just the few downs he played last year, you could tell he was gonna be special for us. I predict Issac Sopoaga dominates the D-line and breakout this year….I like the addition of Justin Smith, but I actually think Issac will emerge as the top lineman, from a numbers standpoint.

by #1TE.BadCaseofV.D. on Jul 3, 2008 9:17 PM PDT   0 recs

Whoopsie… I replied above before I got far enough down to read that you’d already covered it. Have you noticed the +reply button at the bottom of everybody’s comments, by the way? It would help avoid this kind of thing. It lets you reply directly to a comment rather than always commenting at the bottom of the page, and it makes it easier to keep conversations from becoming disjointed.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Jul 4, 2008 2:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

OOps!

No, I’m kinda a newb to the site….I see it now though. Thanks, for fillin’ me in….I’ll use it from now on. I’m glad you understand the nickname like I do.

by #1TE.BadCaseofV.D. on Jul 5, 2008 1:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Let The Opposing Teams Be Diseased...

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jul 5, 2008 1:40 AM PDT   0 recs

And Plaqued by the Fortunes of the 49ers..the Fool's Gold!

"We Have a God who delights in impossibilities."

by 16to80endzone on Jul 5, 2008 1:41 AM PDT   0 recs

Lack of Respect

Davis may or may not rack up huge numbers this year (he has fantasy-burned me too many times to predict he will AGAIN).

Regardless, I don’t think he makes the Pro Bowl, even if he is deserving. Some other big name TEs will put up lesser numbers on higher profile teams, and the Disease will not get the respect.

He will have to do something ridiculous, as in 1100+ yards and 8+ TDs and win the 49ers a few games with a couple of Ultimate Highlight-worthy plays. And even then, we would probably only make it the following year.

by rufio on Jul 6, 2008 8:18 AM PDT   0 recs

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