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Around SBN: Tom Brady And The Confusing Pantheon Of QB Greatness

49ers-Raiders: Measurements of success

We've finally reached our first game day of the year, even if it is just the first exhibition game.  As it is the preseason, measurements of success are quite different from the regular season.  In fact, one could argue that the measurements of success are different from the first preseason game to the fourth preseason game. 

The last two games are probably the easiest to assess.  In the last game, I think it's safe to say avoiding injuries is literally all that matters.  In the third preseason game your starters usually get the largest chunking of playing time that they'll see in the preseason.  So, while a win isn't the most important result, you want to see solid production from your first team offense and defense.

The first and second games are a little more difficult to determine.  In the case of the 49ers and their quarterback competition, this difficulty is only magnified.  J.T. O'Sullivan gets the first crack, followed by Alex Smith and then Shaun Hill.  I'd imagine Nnamdi Asomugha won't see a lot of playing time so that certainly affects the quality of the defense O'Sullivan faces.  As for Smith and Hill, while the Raiders first team defense presents many challenges, there appears to be a pretty steep decline as you move down the depth chart. 

So how do you measure the success or failure of the 49ers offense?  If they struggle to move the ball all night long, then there clearly is an issue.  However, if Alex Smith and/or Shaun Hill are able to move the offense against the 2nd and 3rd string defenses, have we really learned anything?  I'd say it's a lose/"not win" situation.  Either they look bad and we're in trouble, or they look good like they're supposed to against a second or third string defense.

The issues on offense have overshadowed the defense, which has the pieces in place to do some good things this season.  As far as I'm concerned, the Raiders first team offense is an offense on the rise.  If JaMarcus Russell can get on board with his receivers and the running game continues to improve, they'll provide a nice little challenge.  The 49ers defense has continued to add quality pieces and will get a stiff challenge right off the bat.  The Raiders didn't have the greatest pass protection last season, so hopefully the 49ers defensive line and linebackers can get some pressure and gain a little confidence.

I think you can compare the four games of the preseason to a boxing match.  This first game will be like the first couple rounds of a boxing match.  The 49ers will be looking to feel things out and see what adjustments they need to make.  In terms of the QB competition, you want somebody to step up, but you've still got time to figure out where your strengths lie. 

The second game is where they want people to truly step up and make plays.  You'd like to have answers at your starting positions, but there's still a little bit of time to step up.  Fans want answers at this point before having to settle in for the long haul.  The third game is where you find out what you're made of and for most teams, this is where everything is won or los.  Finally, the fourth game is where you're just trying to make it to the end of the match without getting dropped by a sucker punch (also known as the "Dr. James Andrews consultation."

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Sweet!

So if the pre-season is like the first rounds a boxing match, if the Niners completely blow out the Raiders it’s like a knockout, so they automatically solve all of their problems for the other four games and avoid all risk of injury in the later games/rounds?

(Yeah, wishful thinking, I know ;)

by grantmp on Aug 8, 2008 8:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Disagree, sort of.
I’d say it’s a lose/”not win” situation. Either they look bad and we’re in trouble, or they look good like they’re supposed to against a second or third string defense.

While I understand the whole idea about not putting a whole lot of stock in preseason performances, I somewhat disagree with what you said. I don’t think it’s a completely non-win situation. Why?

I don’t think you can completely discount the performances of Hill OR Smith just because they played against the second and third string players. You have to remember, as is stated a lot around here, that football is still a team sport. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill may be FACING second or third string talent, but they’re also playing with their own second and third stringers.

Of course there’s the question of how much better the 49ers depth is versus their opponent’s (in this case, the Raiders’) depth, so you can’t really say success here equates to guaranteed success otherwise. However, you can take some positives from it, especially if things like timing, touch, and decision making are a part of those positives.

by sfgfan on Aug 8, 2008 8:40 AM PDT reply actions  

good points

You make good points about Smith and Hill. I think I’m more worried about the downside of a poor performance versus the upside of a good performance.

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by David Fucillo on Aug 8, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

There are definitely more potential negatives to come out of this preseason than there are positives. Even if Smith had started with the #1’s all preseason long and done well, it still wouldn’t have guaranteed that he would have done well during the season. But I think poor performances, no matter which unit you’re working with, is a very bad sign.

by sfgfan on Aug 8, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

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