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Still Hoping I'm Wrong

Since 2005, I've been waiting for Alex Smith to prove me wrong about him.  I've never wanted to be wrong about something as much as I've hoped to be wrong about Smith.  And here we are, entering his fourth season, and I'm still hoping I'm wrong.

Star-divide

I think back to 2005.  We had the number 1 overall pick, and Matt Lienart had just finished a stellar Junior season at USC.  It was clear that he would be the first overall pick.  There was even talk that Pete Carroll might fill the coaching vacancy in San Fransisco.  But then Leinart decided to play one more year.  I remember being devastated.  It felt like we deserved him after suffering through such a horrible season.  With Leinart suddenly out of the picture, the 49ers became a massive question mark.  Who would be the pick?

It seemed that the 49ers were already intent on picking a quarterback, despite the fact that after Leinart there was a dramatic dropoff in QB talent, and the team had many other needs that could be also be filled.  I thought the team should have drafted Braylon Edwards, and waited another year to get a QB.  I wrote this on my old sports blog, sadly that site no longer exists.  Believe me or not, that was how I felt.  Instead, the team began trying to decide between Smith and Aaron Rodgers.  Neither seemed very appealing, but I decided I would prefer Rodgers.  So, of course, the Niners decided upon Smith.

For a few weeks after the draft, I was just pissed off.  But I've been wrong before, and I started reading articles about how he is such a good guy, and how he is a smart QB.  I decided that I really wanted nothing more than to be wrong about Alex Smith.  I'd rather be wrong and have the franchise be a success.

The rookie season wasn't easy for Alex, but it was his rookie season, so I didn't worry about it too much.  2006 brought Norv Turner, and suddenly Alex Smith was showing signs that maybe, just maybe, he could fill the expectations of being a number 1 pick.  This was never more clear than the game against Seattle (Thursday Night Football?  I think?), when Smith played brilliantly.  Things were moving in the right direction, just in time for the 3rd year, where people assume it becomes fair to evaluate draft decisions.

Well, Turner was gone, but optimism was overflowing from training camp.  We were a team on the rise, Smith was ready to step into his own, and there was a lot of talk of the playoffs.  Smith's season was marred by a shoulder injury.  To say that the team did not meet expectations would be quite the understatement.

Now we're here.  We're watching our number 1 pick battle for a starting spot against a few guys who have spent an awful lot of time on the bench for various NFL teams.  And Smith has yet to distance himself from what one might  expect to be mediocre competition.

I'm still not ready to give up on Alex Smith.  The injury came at a horrible time in his career, and I still remember those feelings of hope in 2006.  I'd like to see Smith get the starting job, because I think we still need to see more.  But at the same time, I'm still just hoping that I've been wrong about him.  I'm not sure how much longer I can wait.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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I've been very opposed to Smith

but I’m just like you— I hope he can prove me wrong. If he doesn’t, this team will be in quite a desperate situation, because they’ll have to either overpay a FA, trade talent for one, or go back to the whole rookie QB thing. The latter, if you get the right QB, can work if the rest of the cast around him is solid (see Pittsburgh), but is unlikely.

STEVE HOLM: Better than Alfonso? Why yes, of course.

by UnleashTheGore on Aug 8, 2008 11:13 AM PDT reply actions  

you're asking the wrong guy

And for my information, does Smith’s contract expire at the end of next year?

STEVE HOLM: Better than Alfonso? Why yes, of course.

by UnleashTheGore on Aug 8, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

weird

Here was my niners mockdraft on my old blog which doesn’t exist anymore.

1. Braylon Edwards
33. Lofa Tatupu
65. Frank Gore
94. Marion Barber III
137. Derek Anderson

by enut21 on Aug 8, 2008 11:37 AM PDT reply actions  

WOW

and we’d be pretty thrilled with that draft had it happened that way.

STEVE HOLM: Better than Alfonso? Why yes, of course.

by UnleashTheGore on Aug 8, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe...

I believe that enut is saying I’m full of shit. I could be wrong, but that’s the tone I’m sensing.

Like I said, I’m not going to be bothered by it if people don’t believe that I preferred Braylon Edwards over Alex Smith. I know what I said back then, even if I don’t have something that I can link to.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Aug 8, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I seem to remember a lot of people preferring Braylon Edwards over Alex Smith. Doesn’t sound that far fetched to me.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Aug 8, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Aug 9, 2008 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

well i believed you for what it's worth

it’s not unreasonable. if the 49ers had a decent QB, then no doubt they would have probably taken him.

STEVE HOLM: Better than Alfonso? Why yes, of course.

by UnleashTheGore on Aug 8, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks

Even without a decent QB, I’ve always been a fan of drafting the best available, rather than perceived need. Need can change dramatically from season to season. Case in point: enut21’s 137th pick Derek Anderson has changed the perception of need for the Cleveland Browns QB situation.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Aug 9, 2008 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

2005 Draft

That draft was somewhat interesting, in terms of quarterbacks. As you mention, after Leinart decided he was going to stay at USC, there was quite the drop-off in terms of perceived talent at that position. Something I think about from time to time is this:

What if Rodgers was taken first overall instead of Smith? Would Smith have fallen as far as Rodgers did? Since that draft, I’ve read/heard a few front-office people or media-types refer to Smith as the clearcut better choice between the two of them. I’m just curious how many of these guys are just not speaking out of their asses to try and not offend Smith and/or the 49ers.

by sfgfan on Aug 8, 2008 11:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Smith

I remember reading that the Dolphins were gonna take Smith at #2 if the Niners didn’t take him.

by enut21 on Aug 8, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

I remember reading that there was no way in hell Rodgers would fall to 24

Or however late he did. The bottomline is nobody really knows and anybodys guess isn’t any better than someone else’s.

by methodrampage on Aug 8, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Titans would've taken Smith at #6

That’s not a guess—Floyd Reese, the Titans GM at the time, has said as much.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 8, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hello

Lienart sucks too. The Niners would pretty much be in the same position they are now if Lienart had declared.

by methodrampage on Aug 8, 2008 1:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Which just goes to show ya… Back in 2005, I could be quoted as having said that “Leinart was the surest thing coming out of the draft since Peyton Manning.”

I’m obviously very smrat.

My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.

by howtheyscored on Aug 8, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Career Totals

Smith
G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Sack YdsL Fum FumL
32 63.5 435 800 54.4 4679 146.2 5.8 19 31 87 339 10.6 3.9 2 81 508 27 13

Leinart
G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Sack YdsL Fum FumL
17 71.2 274 489 56.0 3194 187.9 6.5 13 16 33 91 5.4 2.8 2 25 181 8 2

Sorry about the formatting. The key numbers to me are career QB rating. Leinart is 71.2. Smith’s horrible rookie season lowers his career rating to 63.5. The last 2 seasons have been strikingly similar, but I think that Leinart showed he was much more NFL-ready when he came into the league. This could be a product of another season in college, or it could just be that he was in an NFL-style offense at USC.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Aug 8, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think...

... what method is trying to point out is that ANY rookie QB taken that season, even if it was the second coming of Steve Young, had a very high likelihood of failing just because of the 49ers offensive situation. Lack of talent. Revolving door at offensive coordinator. Under performing offensive line. The list goes on and on, kind of.

While it’s possible Smith could have failed even if he did have some of those shortcomings back, it certainly didn’t help him any that they were there to begin with.

by sfgfan on Aug 8, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

completely agree

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Aug 9, 2008 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

“This could be a product of another season in college, or it could just be that he was in an NFL-style offense at USC.”

Or it could be the fact that Leinart has had Boldin and Fitzgerald to throw to, and Alex Smith hasn’t had one above-average WR since he’s been in the league. Or any of the other factors mentioned above by sfgfan

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 8, 2008 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

completely agree

I’m agreeing with you and sfgfan.

I understand that Leinart was put in a better situation. I agree that Leinart could have been horrible in 2005 for the Niners. The ultimate idea behind this post was that I was disappointed we ended up with Smith, and that I’ve basically just been waiting for him to come around.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Aug 9, 2008 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

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