Niners Nation 2008 Season Prediction Contest
Last season we had a pretty good time doing the weekly prediction contest, and with the season looming roughly a month away I wanted to bring the games back to attention and introduce it to the newer members who might be interested in playing.
Here's how it works: Every week, Fooch will pick six games for the rest of us to lay predictions down for. For each game he picks, we predict the score. We don't do Thursday games because they make it much harder to deal with for the official scorekeeper (that's me!).
Scoring is based on two metrics: point totals and point differentials. The idea is that you get one score for predicting the point totals and one score for predicting the point differentials, and the combination of those scores is your final mark. The closer to zero your final mark is, the better your prediction was.
So, if a game ends 14-13, and you predict the game 27-0, then you will score a zero in the point totals category (for being zero points off the total). However, the point differential in the actual score will be 1, and the point differential in your prediction is 27, so your score in the point differentials category will be 26 (since you were 26 points off). Your total mark for the game will be 26 (since 0 + 26 = 26)
Essentially, the closer you get to the actual score, the closer both your point totals and point differentials will be to the actual score.
Rankings for the week are based on these individual marks. The person who gets closest to zero in one game will be awarded 3 points. Next closest gets 2 points. Next closest gets 1 point. And everybody else gets zero. There will be ties. Everybody tied for first get 3 points. Everybody tied for second gets 2 points. And everybody tied for third gets 1 point.
In the rare event that somebody predicts a score exactly, perfectly on the nose (and we've seen in practice that it IS rare - less than 10 in over 1000 predictions last season), that person gets 10 points for the game.
So, theoretically, with 6 games a week and up to ten points awarded for first place in each game, you COULD get up to 60 points a week. This is ridiculously unlikely, though. I think the highest single week total from last season was something like 15. Totals accumulate over the course of the whole season, and the person with the highest totals at the end of the season wins the game and gets the reward.
Last season the reward was a front page story on the blog. We might upgrade this season. I'm thinking that a free, custom, Niners Nation t-shirt might be cool this season... but I haven't mentioned it to Fooch yet and we'd have to get the thing designed and printable before we can make it official. So we'll see. Something with monetary value seems to be the most awesome reward, though.
I have done all the scoring in the past. I have an Excel spreadsheet that does all the math for me, so I just have to type in everybody's scores and go. This is not to say that there isn't human error (just that there is a MUCH SMALLER chance for it), so if you ever see me make a mistake, call me on it and we'll double check.
Last season, we had about ten to twelve regulars playing on a weekly basis. With more new people this season, I think that this could get more fun (and more competetive).
NOW, I know that this is a little bit confusing in words. If you don't understand anything about the scoring, feel free to comment and we'll be happy to explain.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Sorry
sfgfan actually made a perfect prediction, and won your contest.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 8, 2008 3:51 PM PDT
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contest
And just a heads-up, but we won’t use preseason games for the contest since they are of course so hard to predict.
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!
by Fooch on Aug 8, 2008 4:25 PM PDT 0 recs
Yes
All the way to through the Super Bowl.
Last year, I was the runner-up in the postseason tourney, losing to HowTheyScored* in the finals.
*I’m pretty sure he cheated
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on
Aug 9, 2008 1:28 AM PDT
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If I remember correctly, the way we did it last year was that we had 3 separate competitions. One was for the regular season only. One was a free for all for the playoffs. And the last one was a tournament for the playoffswith modified rules which involved the top 8 finishers from the regular season.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 9, 2008 2:22 AM PDT
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Yay
I made a comeback and fell just short of the playoffs last season.
I did take pride in the fact that I took the 49ers every single week.
Every. Single. Week.
Think about it.
MURS for President!!!!!!!
by jtoj on Aug 9, 2008 1:06 AM PDT 0 recs
I did that too… and then I did much better in the playoff tourney when I didn’t have to pick 49er games every week.
Coincidence? I think so!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 9, 2008 2:24 AM PDT
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I’m proud of the fact that I picked against the Giants for the entire postseason.
I’m a football genius, you guys.
Trent Kline: Decentish. Also, my website is called ChatterBalks Dot Com and on it I make jokes about things.
by groug on
Aug 14, 2008 10:57 PM PDT
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My prediction?
suck
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 9, 2008 11:19 AM PDT 0 recs
lol tebow
will be an epic fail as a pro QB. He is the Tyler Hansborough (sp?) of football. Great college player, but doesn’t have the pro skill set.
STEVE HOLM: Better than Alfonso? Why yes, of course.
by UnleashTheGore on
Aug 11, 2008 1:00 PM PDT
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3 wins
49ers win three games, have a losing streak of 6 in a row, fred gore gets hurt and milks it for the rest of the season, because he knows this year is hopeless.. alex smith is cut, nolan fired, martz new head coach, niners score fewest points in league, worst offense for yards as well.. basically last year all over again.. looking forward to the draft, and watching brett favre on dec 7th
by youngbuckeroo on Aug 10, 2008 8:50 AM PDT 0 recs
fred gore?
Fred? Really?
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!
by Fooch on
Aug 10, 2008 10:31 AM PDT
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Optimist.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 10, 2008 11:07 AM PDT
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Remind me not to read your posts anymore.
Niners have the worst offense in the league in terms of both yards and points, then promote the guy in charge of the offense to head coach? Ohhhh-kay.
Also, I think Fred Gore stays healthy and has a great year. Alan Smith, too. And I think Mark Nolan wins coach of the year. I also predict big years from TE Victor Davis, DB Nick Clements, LT Jim Staley, DE/LB Jeremiah Smith, and WR’s Bradley Johnson, Izzie Bruce, and Jacob Morgan. This year’s greatness will remind fans of the classic Niner teams of the 80’s led by Hall of Fame coach Bob Walsh and QB Jesse Montana.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on
Aug 10, 2008 12:02 PM PDT
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izzie bruce...
Sounds like an 80s band (or at least their lead singer)
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!
by Fooch on
Aug 10, 2008 12:31 PM PDT
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Don’t forget LB phenom Patrick Wilson!
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 10, 2008 12:37 PM PDT
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10-6
Defense ranks in top 10… offense gets better after Smith and receivers get more reps in practice… frank gore ranks in top 5 in rushing.. Willis, Gore, Clements and Lee are probowlers
Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Smith to be super so soon.
by bayboy on Aug 10, 2008 3:21 PM PDT 0 recs
Why is everybody predicting the 49ers record? That’s not how the game works.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 10, 2008 4:30 PM PDT 0 recs
What else can people say? The game can’t be played until Fooch picks games every week.
In the meantime, we’ll just predict how the Niners season goes because it’s fun.
Alex Smith is going to have a good year. That’s how they scored.
by Rishi on
Aug 11, 2008 9:13 AM PDT
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ahem
let me just dust off this keyboard so I can school all you guys again. can’t wait to get started.
Still defending Rich Aurilia, and the Niners' classic unis
by wjackalope on Aug 11, 2008 11:49 PM PDT 0 recs
long time no see
It’s certainly been a while…getting geared up for the season?
Niners Nation - The premier 49ers blog on the Internet!
by Fooch on
Aug 12, 2008 12:02 AM PDT
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Oh, bring it.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 12, 2008 2:06 AM PDT
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Either one, really. I’m not too picky.
Just remember, though. It takes three to tangi.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Aug 14, 2008 2:49 AM PDT
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