The 49ers and NFC West: It's never too early for conclusions
My intial plan was to post some of the player quotations and some analysis on what they had to say. Unfortunately for me, most of the quotes lacked the kind of sizzle that make for good analysis. So, instead, with one week down and a big 49ers-Seahawks divisional showdown fast approaching, let's reassess where the NFC West is as a whole. Based on performances today, it might be safe to say that the division is up for anyone to grab...except maybe the Rams.
Seattle Seahawks
Over at Field Gulls, John Morgan is definitely not pleased with the Seahawks performance. Of course, if the 49ers had been smacked around 34-10, I'd probably be just as pissed. The Seahawks struggled in all aspects of the game, and while their defense certainly wasn't abysmal, I don't know if John's use of the word "fine" is the best descriptor. Not in bad shape, but even they have plenty of room for improvement.
As some of us mentioned before, that running game is going to have to work to become more impressive. Falling behind early didn't help matters, but Julius Jones and Maurice Morris just doesn't inspire fear in anybody. Jones is certainly talented, but we'll see if he can break through and return to his somewhat respectable 2006 performance. As for Seattle's special teams? Well, this video isn't pretty and I don't just mean the blurry picture. We'll have plenty to preview going forward this week.
St. Louis Rams
I really don't think week one could have gone any worse for the Rams. For a while it looked like they could come away with keeping DeSean Jackson quiet on punt returns, but then he busted one for 60 yards. VanRam went so far as to even consider beginning a discussion about the #1 overall pick. I do think Philadelphia is a talented team and I'm not stunned that Donovan McNabb appears to have finally bounced back from his knee surgery. That kind of surgery usually takes more than a year for a 100% recovery. Once they get Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis healthy, the Eagles will be dangerous.
The Eagles aside, probably the only highlight was Randy McMichael with a solid debut for the Rams. I certainly think there are enough bad teams in the league that the Rams will win some games. In spite of the 49ers flat effort I feel a little better facing the Rams. However, while the Rams are not a playoff bound team, they are definitely not as bad as they appeared today. Steven Jackson missed a significant amount of time with his holdout, so he probably isn't quite 100%. The Rams definitely need to work on their pass protection as Marc Bulger is going to get killed before the end of the season otherwise. While awful this week, I'd like to see how they play against the Giants in their home opener.
Arizona Cardinals
Well, we know how these guys looked. Considering how poorly the 49ers performed, the Cardinals probably should have put 30+ on the board. They left 11 points out there on two drives because of one moronic personal foul and another poorly time chop block. While we can blame JTO and company all we want, the Cardinals got pressure to force the two O'Sullivan fumbles. He had issues with staring down his receivers and I'm kind of surprised he didn't throw more picks.
Kurt Warner remains the 49ers nemesis as even in the face of impressive pressure at times, he made things happen, particularly with Anquan Boldin. The 49ers would get them to 3rd and long and then give up a first down catch. Even the Cardinals running game was slightly less than stellar and yet it seemed like they were taking care of business when it mattered most. The Cardinals only averaged 3.8 yards a carry, but they made some important gains on short yardage situations.
I would also briefly like to address the luck situation. Luck is often taking advantage of an opportunity. I definitely don't think the Cardinals were lucky to the beat the 49ers today (in fact I think the 49ers were lucky to not lose by more). However, it felt at times like things were bouncing the Cardinals way all day long. Every punt seemed to bounce just right. A Warner pass would be deflected by a defensive lineman, only to end up in Anquan Boldin's arms. Things like that. It's not sour grapes because I wouldn't be surprised for the shoe to be on the other foot in some of these games. Nonetheless it's certainly frustrating when your team is not on the receiving end of those lucky bounces.
Conclusions
I don't have a separation section for the 49ers because obviously we have been and will continue to discuss them plenty. For now, while the 49ers certainly were not wildly impressive today, they did enough for me to be hopeful in what for now is a wide-open NFC West. If the Seahawks can get bodies back I still think they're the team to beat in this division, poor running game aside. They are certainly better than they showed today, particularly their defense. However, it won't be easy work for them in the division. The Cardinals show a certain spark under Kurt Warner that will definitely make them a tough out. It's hard to judge their defense against a developing 49ers offense, but they definitely can bring some heat at times.
I remain somewhat hopeful for the 49ers season because if the season goes anything like this for the likes of Seattle and St. Louis, the 49ers and Cardinals both could conceivably win the division. Even though the Seahawks will improve this season, I think the 49ers will as well and the Rams will certainly not be this awful (or maybe they will). If an NFC West team walked into the playoffs at 8-8 I would not be remotely surprised. Of course performances in the coming weeks could certainly change my thoughts on all of that.
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Comments
Luck?!
For the majority of the 110 years of the Cardinals’ franchise history, the only luck they’ve known is bad luck.
Lucky bounces are synonymous with the punting game; it’s the skill of the punt returner to field the ball to eliminate the favourable bounce and/or roll. Dirk Johnson punted like crap all preseason, so that’s all the Niners saw on film, so why run up to field the ball? I’m sure the game plan will be different in game two…if Dirk is still on the team at that point.
The pooch kick-off went exactly as intended: kick straight to a blocker-type that will muff the ball right into the hands of a ST skill guy to recover the ball. That’s not luck but execution (okay, maybe just a little luck, but intended luck! Yeah, that’s it…).
The deflected pass to Boldin probably helped to complete the pass, so I’ll say good luck was involved there for Warner.
Luck worked in the Niners favour as well as Bertrand Berry’s forced fumbled rolled down field away from the Cards’ end zone forcing Antonio Smith to chase, grab, stop, turn around, and get mugged by tacklers. ::shrugs:: It could have rolled the other way to be scooped up by a LB with a head of steam.
Luck, in all its forms, has a tendency to balance out. I’m sure most of the Cardinals fans would claim that the Niners had plenty of luck in last year’s season opener.
As to the NFC West, after one week all I can say is….hmmm. The Rams suck mightily and will likely see a coaching change by mid-year at this rate of production. The Seahawks are more vulnerable than previously thought (or the Bills are a helluva a lot better than thought!), the Niners will be in all their games this year, as well as the Cardinals. The fact that the division is synced up with the AFC and NFC East divisions is going to be brutal across the board. 9-7 is all it will take to win the division, just like years past, and three of the four teams have a chance to do it.
It ought to be exciting to see how it all plays out.
We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!
by Hawkwind on Sep 8, 2008 5:51 AM PDT 0 recs
front 7
played great. I saw pressure all day, not just in the first half. The secondary needs to be more aggressive. Warner was throwing passes that could easiler be knocked down. But Justin Smith was everywhere, P-willie didn’t get too many tackles, but he was still a total beast, Lawson wasn’t much of a pass rusher, but did a good job forcing james to the outside at times. The big guys did ok, but did give up 120 yards rushing, granit, on over 30 carries. The blitz package worked great with Haralson and Green. Brooks didn;t play much. Spike did ok, but it was the fumble that killed him. I’d like to see more corner and saftey blitzs to screw with warner. Ray McDonlad had a nice game other than a personal foul that DESTROYED us.
According to the comminsioner of the nfl, 104 people retired last year. 7 due to age, and the rest because of Patrick Willis
by montasmob69 on Sep 8, 2008 6:26 AM PDT 0 recs
Re: The front 7
I saw a few sacks, but I actually still saw Warner regularly getting a ton of time in the pocket. It was one of the things that was really frustrating me watching from the stands.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 8, 2008 12:23 PM PDT
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Maiocco's stats blog interesting
I stopped by Maiocco’s blog before getting here this a.m. and the more stats I saw, the more bizarre this game appears. The Cards only averaged 2.8 yards a carry. They only had one yard more rushing than the Niners. This one blew me away: the Cards were only 5 of 16 on third downs.
And Maiocco says that the Cardinals scored no points off the four offensive turnovers. Is that right?
Let’s try to imagine the game without a five-turnover deficit. Does anyone think the Niners, or any other team, wouldn’t win the game? Does anyone think that with five more possessions that the time of possession gap would be so lopsided?
I might have to reconsider last night’s criticism of the defense, although a couple more three and outs would have helped. And the Niners are still soft in the center of the D line. And it seemed as if Wisenhunt’s plan to run out the clock starting at the second half kickoff left Nolan without a counter strategy.
I don’t know. I think the offense could be really good. A lot of the frustration of fans with O’Sullivan has to do withoverall frustration and with a lot of emotions over A. Smith. Really, for his first start he was okay. His yards per attempt was great.
It was a very weird game and the second half sucked the energy out of everyone, especially the fans.
by Bob On The Coast on Sep 8, 2008 6:30 AM PDT 0 recs
For his first start, his line looks okay, but he didn’t play very well. He waited too long on most of his reads, he stayed too far back when the pockets were collapsing, he ran when he should have thrown the ball, and the one time he really should have run the ball he threw an interception. Except for a couple of passes, most of his completions were still off-target and put the receivers in bad positions after the catch. At least, that’s what I saw. We know the eyes lie, but that’s what I saw.
It was his first game, so I can’t say anything solid, but he’s also a 29 year old with what is almost definitely limited room for development who didn’t play well… I’m giving him more chances going forward, but I can’t really be optimistic about him.
I just can’t get myself to be particularly apologetic about him.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 8, 2008 12:28 PM PDT
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I, for one, am encouraged by yesterday's game
The biggest question (QB) was settled a bit…O’Sullivan played pretty decently in his first ever start. The INT was the one glaring error, but I think that was one of the better QB-ing efforts we’ve seen in a while. We no longer have to be concerned about 3-and-outs every time they get the ball.
I’m not concerned about the defense. They played very well, getting pressure on the QB all day until towards the end of the game, when understandably, they’d be tired from being on the field all game.
The turnover suck, but that’s more of an abboration than anything, I think. Like Fooch said, a lot of it was luck and won’t be repeated every game. I’d be more concerned about 5 INTs than 4 fumbles lost by 4 different players.
I watched the whole Seattle game, and I was extremely excited after watching it. They are obviously a shell of their former division winning teams. Their OL is even worse than ours, and their defense was extremely porous against a merely decent Bills team. I think unless somehow next week’s game has more of this crazy turnover business, the 49ers are going to shock everyone and come out with a solid win. Like it was said, they only lost by 10 and the offense wasn’t on the field but for one solid possession in the 2nd half.
This is the best 49ers team I’ve seen since Garcia took us to the playoffs, and I think the top of the division is definitely in sight.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Sep 8, 2008 8:15 AM PDT 0 recs
Good points.
I think that in those pooch-kick situations, the blocker-type player the ball ends up coming to should just leave the darned thing alone. They REALLY have no business touching it. According to Matt Maiocco, that’s the only turnover that resulted in points.
I’m with you in thinking the division may be wide open. The sad part is, the 49ers have always shot themselves in the foot, and this first game hasn’t helped prove they’re capable of anything otherwise. Of course, I hope I’m wrong and that the turnovers (at least THAT amount of them) were just an aberration and not indicative of things to come.
I do definitely see some bright spots in this game, though. O’Sullivan seems to not only be able to find players down field, but he can also hit them. He just needs to protect the ball a little better or get a better feel for how the pocket is collapsing around him. That’ll probably come with more experience, though. I liked how Gore performed and it seemed he was used fairly well. The defensive front did pretty well as well. There seemed to always be some kind of pressure or potential pressure on Warner.
As always, looking forward to next week.
by sfgfan on
Sep 8, 2008 9:09 AM PDT
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I think that in those pooch-kick situations, the blocker-type player the ball ends up coming to should just leave the darned thing alone. They REALLY have no business touching it.
I’m just curious, since it was a kickoff and no 49er contact would have been necessary for the Cards to recover, doesn’t somebody have to grab it, even if they maybe have no business touching a football in any other situation?
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 8, 2008 12:31 PM PDT
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Yes.
Generally, your bigger “blocker” types are up front, but around the primary returner (in this case, Rossum) there should have been tight ends or in the 49ers case, Michael Robinson not too far behind guys like Spikes. While I understand that you HAVE to grab the ball, but perhaps the blocker types can still block the oncoming coverage unit enough for the back guys to come up closer to the ball.
Seems like I’m making very little sense, even to myself. I think I’ll just stop here.
by sfgfan on
Sep 8, 2008 2:06 PM PDT
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Rossum...
Needs to know when to fair catch and when not to. When to let the ball hit the turf and when to return it.
Fair catching a punt so you have two seconds left to attempt a hail mary in the half only works in Madden, not in the actual NFL.
by Rishi on Sep 8, 2008 9:12 AM PDT 0 recs
yeah
Devin Hester needs to learn when to knee the ball too lol.
by J2daZ on
Sep 8, 2008 11:06 AM PDT
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I think I saw a different JTO than a lot of people did. Being at the game makes it hard for me to say anything for certain about his performance (even if it seems like I have been) just because of the angle, the distance, seeing every play only once, and the fallibility of the eye, but he didn’t look good to me. Inaccurate, even on his completions, with a number of either poor or late decisions, including one glaring idiot play on the pick.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Sep 8, 2008 12:34 PM PDT 0 recs
decisions
The interception definitely appeared to be his fault. On tv he did seem to make some decent decisions, including that dump to Frank Gore when he couldn’t find anybody open and the pocket was collapsing. Do you recall anything from the Bryant Johnson receptions? I don’t have the footage in front of me but they seemed decent enough.
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by Fooch on
Sep 8, 2008 12:37 PM PDT
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Which dump to Gore?
I remember a designed screen to him, where O’Sullivan backed up and eventually threw to Gore on 2nd or 3rd and short. Similarly, there was a screen pass to Vernon Davis that he just plain out floated out there so long that Davis had no time to do anything with the ball once he caught it.
by sfgfan on
Sep 8, 2008 2:08 PM PDT
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dump off
Looking at the play-by-play at ESPN.com, I think it’s:
1st and 10 at ARZ 33 (14:21) J.O’Sullivan pass short right to F.Gore to ARZ 19 for 14 yards (R.Hood). Caught at ARZ 35.
I’ll have to double check on the game tape but I believe JTO had dropped back and as the pocket collapse he tossed one out to Gore to his right who spun off somebody and got a first down.
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by Fooch on
Sep 8, 2008 5:16 PM PDT
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As far as Bryant Johnson, I wasn’t close enough to see the numbers clearly, and the crowd was too loud for the PA in my section for at least most of the game, so I’m not sure which were the ones that went his way specifically.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on
Sep 8, 2008 5:09 PM PDT
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