Week Five Prediction Games: The Almost Laughable Results

I'm watching America's Funniest Home Videos right now. You know, this show is cool for, like, 55 minutes. And then they give out the cash. So you spend 55 minutes watching a bunch of funny videos, with three or four duds thrown in there for good measure. And then you get to the last five minutes and they're giving money to the duds! I mean, quite literally, the three least funny videos in the entire show. Without fail, these videos are not funny at all. They are lucky to pull so much as a grin out of you. The only reason you even laugh is because you're laughing at yourself for thinking things might be different this time.

But it doesn't bother me. I look at it this way: the show is about awarding viewers with funny videos, but even more than that it's about giving money to families that need it. Have you ever noticed how every winning video is always a family? And never a rich-looking family? Yeah. They're giving money to people who need it. Ultimately, it's charity. And that's a good thing.

That's kind of how I score these games.

Atlanta @ 49ers:

1. groug (38)
2. DuikeBuike (42)
3. YoungWillis (56)

New York Jets @ Miami:

1. whobob, LASVEGASNINER, Iwantwinners, Persiflage (14)
2. YoungWillis (16)
3. Drew K, J2daZ, howtheyscored, wjackalope (20)
4. DuikeBuike, bignerd (22)
5. etb2, shlecko, Mike Hawk (28)

Indianapolis @ Tennessee:

1. PHUT!, groug (2)
2. sfgfan (4)
3. nacho49, ro128487, etb2, howtheyscored, mikemccwolf, shlecko, jpgarfunkle, Fooch (8)
4. 5-0 (10)
5. 49erLou, bonbrillio, 49ersAllTheWay, gbears16, remembertheCATCH, Iwantwinners, Sloan (14)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore:

1. 5-0, jpgarfunkle (6)
2. Dub4lif3, Mike Hawk (8)
3. whobob, shlecko, Sloan (14)

Washington @ Carolina:

1. beecharmer (2)
2. Ten-Man, bayboy, Iwantwinners, jpgarfunkle, wjackalope (6)
3. 49ERFAN, nocal81, Drew K, SpurredOn, 49ersAllTheWay, gbears16, Ninerfromacrossthepond, leaping_larry, bignerd, 49ersfan29405 (8)
4. corvette49rdave, YoungWillis, Dub4lif3, bonbrillio, renke81, mpotter14, ro128487, cassusriff, DuikeBuike, etb2, BEETLE49715, grantmp, youngbuckeroo, urnext (14)
5. 49erLou, JoeO (16)

New England @ Denver:

1. ro128487, Kaizre (2)
2. SpurredOn (4)
3. Ten-Man, these3words (6)
4. LASVEGASNINER, nacho49, mpotter14, cassusriff, gbears16 (8)
5. JoeO, rlott#42 (12)

And that makes our week 5 leaderboard look like this:

1. howtheyscored                       -           40
2. ro128487                               -           37
3. jpgarfunkle                             -           33
4. PHUT!                                   -           32
4. nocal81                                 -           32
6. JoeO                                     -           29
6. cassusriff                               -           29
8. MontanaPass                        -           28
8. Joshpreet                              -           28
8. bignerd                                  -           28
8. wjackalope                           -           28
12. YoungWillis                         -           27
12. etb2                                    -           27
12. gbears16                             -           27
12. SpurredOn                           -           27
16. foosball4949              -           26
16. Persiflage                            -           26
16. 5-0                                      -           26
16. LASVEGASNINER               -           26
20. remembertheCATCH -           25
20. sfgfan                                  -           25
22. ar4gsw                                -           24
22. grantmp                               -           24
22. renke81                               -           24
22. DuikeBuike                          -           24
22. these3words                        -           24
22. Ten-Man                              -           24
28. groug                                   -           23
28. bonbrillio                              -           23
28. nacho49                              -           23
31. shlecko                               -           22
31. leaping_larry                        -           22
33. illini49er                               -           21
33. 49erLou                               -           21
33. mpotter14                            -           21
36. nini9er                                 -           20
36. ZeroIndulgence                     -           20
36. J2daZ                                  -           20
36. Dub4lif3                               -           20
36. Drew K                                -           20
41. CB30                                   -           19
41. ProfessorBigelow                  -           19
41. mikemccwolf                        -           19
41. Mike Hawk                           -           19
41. Ninerfromacrossthepond        -           19
41. bayboy                                -           19
47. youngbuckeroo                     -           18
47. 49ersfan29405                      -           18
47. Kaizre                                 -           18
50. Sloan                                  -           17
51. RBoogy29                            -           16
52. sundaysfinest                       -           15
52. jtoj                                      -           15
52. shovel-25                             -           15
52. Number22Drew                     -           15
52. urnext                                  -           15
52. 49RFAN                              -           15
58. Florida Danny                       -           14
58. Fooch                                  -           14
58. BEETLE49715                     -           14
58. beecharmer                          -           14
62. Ninjames                             -           13
62. rlott#42                                -           13
64. danknerd49                          -           12
64. Riding The F Train                -           12
66. Ceradecke                           -           10
66. Widowwolf                           -           10
66. proudcanadian99                  -           10
66. Iwantwinners                        -           10
66. 49ERFAN                            -           10
71. ronniemac03                        -           9
71. Mr. Nice Guy                       -           9
71. Tony C                                -           9
71. albertoleecho                       -           9
75. Smithisstilltheanswer            -           8
75. whobob                                -           8
77. hudd07                                -           7
78. lincypoo i wuv u                    -           6
78. shulkdog                              -           6
78. supraman                            -           6
78. FaStRmAn                           -           6
78. crevis1987                           -           6
83. 49ersAllTheWay                   -           5
84. snowweasel30                      -           4
85. De Stijl                                -           3
85. JerseyNinerFan                    -           3
85. RilezG                                 -           3
85. CW30                                  -           3
85. Man BearPig21                     -           3
85. StevenC                               -           3
85. LADubbz45                          -           3
92. connie mack                        -           2
92. Tricky-Nicky                         -           2
92. Brendan Scolari                    -           2
92. corvette49rdave                    -           2
96. UnleashTheGore                   -           1
96. nostocksjustbonds               -           1

So the first thing that you should know about the prediction games is that they really aren't like America's Funniest Home Videos. The people who need to win the most aren't the families. They aren't the poor or the out-of-work. They're not trying to pay off medical bills.

What they are, is a lot like me. They're so much like me, in fact, that they are me... and those who are like me. ro128487, for example, that guy is one cool dude. I like his attitude. He's handsome, too. And if that doesn't describe somebody who should be almost beating me in this game, I don't know what does.

To get back to real life, though, you guys kind of made this week a joke. Three people scored in the 49ers game? Three!? Out of almost 70?! And one of them was groug?

For shame.

Two point brackets went completely to waste in the Bengals game. Heck... that could be the difference between tied for fourth place and being in sole possession of fourth place! These are the picks that are going to keep you out of the playoffs down the road.

So let's talk strategy. Everybody likes to pick an upset. Except that in practice that isn't true. But think of it this way: You're picking for a game where 90% of the people are predicting one way. That's going to be, like, 65 - 80 predictions between you and points. Chances are, no matter how much of a shoe in the game is, you'll be lucky to come away from those odds with one point.

So pick the upset. Suddenly, if you get the right winner, you're looking at... what... three votes between you and points? That's guaranteed points!

So would you rather have MAYBE one point, or guaranteed points? I think the choice is simple here.

Let's look at the results.

A few names immediately jump out. Mine, of course, but then directly beneath my name are a few more. Again, ro128487 had a great week and is now in sole possession of second place. More than that, he's darn close to first. This guy is riding a hot streak like no other right now, so don't sleep on him going forward.

Then, jpgarfunkle went silly on your faces. He can sniff first place, and he was one pick away from being there, too.

Then cassusriff, one of our previous first-place players, did just enough to hold onto a playoff spot. Has the hot start faded, or is he just finding his second wind

It would be terrible for me to not mention YoungWillis here. Guy went from 33rd to 12th in one week. Strong week, man. Good stuff.

Iwantwinners gets honorable mention here. Knocking out 10 points in your first week of play is no small feet. 10 points a week is a championship pace. By a lot. Can Iwantwinners keep it up? I'll tell you one thing: Iwanttofindout.

And, actually, groug had a pretty good week. There's no reason to lol at him this time around. He was solid. It's more fun for me when he's not, you know, because of the lols, but he done did good this time. Poop.

All this happened, more or less. The war parts, anyway, are pretty much true. One guy I knew really was shot in Dresden for taking a teapot that wasn't his. Another guy I knew really did threaten to have his personal enemies killed by a hired gunman after the war. And so on. I've changed all the names.