The NFC West after the first turn
The timing of the 49ers bye week (was that not the longest week ever?) works fairly well for looking at the division as a whole. The Cardinals had their bye week in week 4, the 49ers this past week, and the Seahawks are this upcoming week. The Rams don't have a bye until week 9, but given how their season has gone so far, we'll overlook that for the purposes of this discussion. We're at a natural point in the schedule where one could say the division is through the first turn heading into the back stretch. We've got two teams tied for first, one team a game and a half back and another plotting their draft strategy at this point.
While we are only heading into week 7 of the season, the NFC West race appears to be turning into, at most, a 2-team race between San Francisco and Arizona. Seattle is only a game and a half back, but they showed yesterday that they are a team that is in serious trouble. Throw in the end of Lofa Tatupu's season and things are going south quickly. Of course the 49ers did not exactly inspire confidence last week against the Falcons, so maybe we should even wait before calling it a two-team race? Let the optimist onslaught begin!!!
Since we've got plenty of opportunities to discuss more specific stuff about the 49ers elsewhere, I thought we'd use this post to discuss the other three teams in the division and the 49ers place amongst them. Before the jump I start the discussion with the 49ers principal threat at this point, the Arizona Cardinals. After the jump we look at Seattle and St. Louis. I've also included a poll, and while I'm guessing this kind of poll on a 49ers fan site will be skewed, I'm still curious what people have to say on the topic.
Arizona Cardinals
Is it possible the Cardinals are officially the team to beat once again in the division? The Cardinals stumbled out of the gates against the 49ers, but for the most part seem to have regrouped rather nicely. I'm sure they'd like to have been more competitive with the Colts, but that loss certainly wasn't the end of the world. Instead, we've seen them bounce back with a pair of impressive wins. They held off a tough Houston Texans squad last week, and then went into Seattle and thoroughly dominated the Seahawks. The Seahawks have plenty of issues at this point, but that home field advantage is still supposed to be pretty solid. Maybe this bodes well for the 49ers road game up there in December.
I'd argue the Cardinals have the most momentum at this point, although that could conceivably come crashing to a halt at the Meadowlands this Sunday when they face the Giants. In the coming seven games leading up to their re-match with the 49ers, the Cardinals schedule is really not that imposing. They've got tough games at New York, at Chicago, and home against the Vikings. However, I'd expect them to be favorites in the other 4 games. If they can win those 4 and sneak out 1 or 2 wins in the other 3, they're suddenly in good shape coming down the final stretch. The 49ers on the other hand are entering an especially tough stretch of the schedule. They've got several must wins in there, but they have a few more tougher matchups to handle. I think the 49ers can handle their business, but it's not gonna be an easy road leading to Arizona.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks season took a rather dramatic turn for the worse yesterday. The team was dominated at home and also found out they were losing defensive stalwart Lofa Tatupu for the season. For those that don't remember the 49ers-Seahawks game earlier this season, Frank Gore's big runs came once Tatupu left the game with another injury. It's safe to say, start running backs facing Seattle.
Although the Seahawks won their opener versus St. Louis, the season went off the deep end beginning the next week against the 49ers. Matt Hasselbeck was knocked out of the game and for three games the Seahawks could not really get much going. A win over Jacksonville seemed to be a chance to turn the corner, but it was more just proof that the Jaguars really aren't all that great. Following yesterday's loss, the Seahawks stand 2-4 and a game and a half out of first place in the NFC West. That's a very small margin given the level of play at times in the NFC West, and yet I can't imagine Seahawks fans have a ton of confidence at this point.
The birds of the northwest get a bye week this week, but things won't be all that easy coming out of the bye week. Home versus Detroit is certainly a game they could/should win, but if Matt Stafford is back, who knows what kind of trouble he could give the Seahawks. They should win at St. Louis, but even with those two games as wins, they could be looking at 4-7 heading into their home game with San Francisco in week 13. Home field advantage had always been their thing, but if their confidence is shaken at that point, who knows how they'll perform.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams season has more or less been a debacle. They've certainly gotten strong work from Steven Jackson and James Laurinaitis is showing some skills as a linebacker. However, the season is more or less lost at this point and they're playing for draft positioning. They had their chances week 2 against the Redskins and they certainly had a chance yesterday against the Jaguars, but they remain winless. Looking at the rest of their schedule, Detroit is certainly a winnable game, although I think Detroit is better than them. Tennessee might also be winnable but that's another one that I'm pretty sure the Rams will be underdogs.
The 49ers will be facing the Rams the final week of the season. The 49ers final four games are home against Arizona, on the road at Philly, home against Detroit and on the road at St. Louis. So if they're in this thing heading into the final month, the schedule is certainly somewhat favorable to them. The key of course is to not trip up on the must win games like the Rams road game. Road games are always tough in the NFL, but the Rams are at a level of awful-ness that it's just not the same. Of course we also don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves since there are a lot of weeks remaining between now and then.
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Comments
I still like the Niners
Seattle has been devestated by injuries and inconssitent play. And Arizona has to come to San Francisco for one more game.
FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!
by 49er16 on Oct 19, 2009 8:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
AZ was always the team to beat
As they are defending division (and conference) champs. I still prefer the Niners’ position, as 3-0 in the division and having won in AZ.
I expect AZ to lose @ NYG and Chicago. They should win the other games before the Candlestick rematch, though I would not be surpirsed to see such an off/on team stumble once, perhaps to Minnesota. Without the stumble, I see AZ coming into that MNF game at 8-4. I expect the Niners to be 8-4 or 7-5. Either way, the winner of that game likely wins the division.
With the Niners finishing with the Lions and Rams, a sweep of AZ clinches it. An AZ win puts them out in front where they likely won’t be caught. So we’ll rock the Stick on a cold and damp night and avenge last year’s MNF loss in the desert.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
by SpurredOn on Oct 19, 2009 9:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Arizona
Arizona closes at home against Green Bay, but gets @ Detroit and vs. St. Louis weeks 15 and 16, so I wouldn’t exactly say the 49ers would lock that up with the win. The 49ers play Philly Week 15.
by Fooch on Oct 19, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if we're ahead
If we go up a game, we win head to head with a sweep. Even a loss at Philly gets corrected by beating the Lions and Rams. If we can’t do that to win the division we don’t deserve it. I am concerned that if we lose we can’t catch AZ due to their easy finish.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
by SpurredOn on Oct 19, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They just lost to the raiders think we can take them lol
by 49erSalvatrucha on Oct 19, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly, I think it will come down to that week 1 win as the deciding edge for the niners capturing the division. I don’t think the cards will seriously outperform the niners in their out of division schedule meaning that one win will be crucial.
by foosball4949 on Oct 19, 2009 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
49ers
are still +2 in the divsion. So even though AZ and SF share the same record, it’s still advantage Niners.
by Drew K on Oct 19, 2009 9:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I just wanna know which 2 people voted for the Rams
to win the division. It’s a near impossibility for them to win the division barring a complete collapse by the Niners, Cardinals and Seahawks.
by smileyman on Oct 19, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Arizona
But the Niners get in as a wild-card.
Don't worry about me Thurgood, I'll be fine. The robbery is what's important now.
by the guy on Oct 19, 2009 10:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well Atlanta pretty much locked up a wildcard spot already.
49ers vs. Bears
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by chikmagnet_565 on Oct 19, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wild Card will be tough
It’s gonna take 10 wins. If we get ten we’ll win the West. less than that would leave us a game short especailly since we play three teams competing for it (CHI, PHI, AZ).
Yesterday aside, you know Philly will rebound and hit the ten number. As might Chicago or AZ.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
by SpurredOn on Oct 19, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
9 wins can get the Wildcard with tie breakers
The Giants, Eagles and Dallas will steal a few games from each other so it’s possible the 2nd team in that division is at 9 wins, likely Eagles or Giants cause I don’t think Dallas will hang around.
Neither the Bears or Packers look like 10 win teams but I’d have to check their schedule.
At this point I would pencil in Atlanta and New Orleans for the playoffs so that takes care of one wildcard.
by bignerd on Oct 19, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thought
Is that if we beat those teams (Chicago, Philly, GB) and thus earn the tie-breakers it almost assures we’ll reach ten wins, especially since the latter two on the road could be penciled in as losses. If we lose all three of those games I don’t see us doing any better than 9 wins and we’d lose all tie-breakers, so no postseason.
Both GB and Chicago have basically the same schedule. Only one should reach ten wins if that.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
by SpurredOn on Oct 19, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I want them to win...
I think we still have too many OL holes to get enough offense to give our defense the chance it needs.
I see us hitting the next AZ game at 8-4 (losing to Indy and GB) or 7-5 (Chi loss)
BUT
I saw us beating ATL as well and we did not…so now I worry that one of the other “wins” won;t be a win and we end up having to beat them to win the Div…
And we come up one yard short…oh wait…that was last year….
And we fail to cover deep on a long pass and TD for the go ahead win at the end of regulation…
I can only hope I am wrong but I still think we are one year removed from the playoffs…
by 9erEast on Oct 19, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Why are you still overrating GB?
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by chikmagnet_565 on Oct 19, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still liking the Niners to win the div.
We will come back strong against Huston get back to the mindset that we started off with.. This team is a work in progress and will take the Atlanta game as a learning experience. I know we still have to win outside our division but that will come this week. We build from there…
by WC-Ninerhead on Oct 19, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
O line
If we can do SOMETHING about our weak O line we may have a chance at the playoffs!
by Senator D. on Oct 19, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Frankeeee
with Frank Gore back and Crabtree in the game I think we will beat Houston for a solid out of division game.
by Senator D. on Oct 19, 2009 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good Post
I told you the Cards were no way out of it. Indy was just a horrible match up, not an indicator of the rest of the season. 10 wins will win the NFC West while 9 games makes it a tie break situation. Lucky for the 49ers they currently hold all the tie breaker edges.
Houston is practically a must win. Can’t expect the team to beat Indy and Philly on the road. Houston, Chicago, Green Bay and Arizona should all be considered playoff games. Blew their chances against Minny and Atlanta. The 49ers need to split their record in these 4 games, with Houston and Chicago being the easiest. Tenn., St. Louis, Detroit are must wins and than they need a road win at either Seattle or Jacksonville.
by bignerd on Oct 19, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No one in the West is proven yet
If the Falcons were the 49ers debacle, then the bane of the Cards have been the Colts in the early part of the season. Both teams had reasonable expectations to put on a good fight, with a small home edge, against competitive opponents (God knows us Niner fans were hoping for a close one, and I’ll bet the AZers were saying the same). Both were blown out. Both have handled teams they were expected to handle (especially division-wise), and even pulled a couple of scares.
The glaring difference is that first week – Cards lose at the 49ers hands in AZ. The 49ers hold that edge. The edge is maintained if both teams continue to do what they have done so far – beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and attempt to put a hurting on those who are expected to beat them, and the records will remain neck and neck, with a 49er advantage. Barring more offensive disasters for the 49ers, which could certainly cost them the division (and I’m sure there are Card fans with reasonable doomsday situation ideas too, like maybe losing Warner), and a non-cocky attitude when they square off with AZ again, the 49ers win the division.
Repeating: in my opinion, reviewing everything above, and all variables remain constant, the 49ers win the division.
by ranger89 on Oct 19, 2009 2:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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