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Around SBN: Sean Keeley's Week 12 College Football Buffet

Week Six Prediction Games: The Indelible Results

Okay, guys, listen up. I think it's time we had a little talk. I want to sit down here and talk like mature adults about scoring.

Yes, it's time for that talk. The prediction games birds and the prediction games bees. You would think, maybe, that it would be better for beecharmer to sit you down and have this talk. You'd be wrong, though. He knows almost nothing about birds. It's kind of sad, actually.

So, I mean... where to start? I know this is a little bit awkward, but I think we can get through this. You've taken the classes, so I don't need to tell you about where everything is. You know all about what happens when New Orleans penetrates New York's secondary. I mean, you know about it in theory. You might have even watched a video or two. I know, the videos are exciting. Heck, I'm getting excited just thinking about them!

Sorry, that might have been going too far. Let me take a step back. I thought that it might help if we took a look at a few magazines. 

<reaches into a drawer and pulls out a stack of fantasy football, Sports Illustrated, and ESPN the magazines>

Now, don't be nervous. I know this is weird. It's weird for me too. But let's take a look at the centerfold for a second.

Whoa, hey! Don't get defensive. Don't get all weird on me! I'm just trying to help. It's obvious that you've been having trouble scoring. I mean, you do want to score more prediction games points, right? Okay, then. I can tell you how to do it. How do you think I even got my name? Alright then: Let's talk about protection.

What? Hey! Where are you going? Don't you walk away from me!

Fine then! Be that way! If you don't want to score, you don't have to! I didn't even want to help you! Your mother asked me to. She's worried about you.

So, let's see who the heck scored:

Star-divide

Denver @ San Diego:

  1. Sloan (10)
  2. bayboy, grantmp, MontanaPass, howtheyscored (14)
  3. bignerd (16)
  4. danknerd49, whobob, PHUT!, ro128487, sfgfan, urnext, corvette49rdave, CB30, beecharmer, ProfessorBigelow, cassusriff, youngbuckeroo (20)
  5. Drew K, Ten-Man, illini49er, wjackalope, JoeO (22)

Chicago @ Atlanta:

  1. cassusriff (4)
  2. Dub4lif3, 49erLou, DuikeBuike, sfgfan, urnext, Fooch (6)
  3. danknerd49, ZeroIndulgence, ro128487, illini49er, LASVEGASNINER, leaping_larry, bignerd (12)
  4. groug, 5-0, demise87, bonbrillio, wjackalope, shlecko, etb2, CB30, beecharmer (14)
  5. Drew K, Ten-Man, YoungWillis, SpurredOn, mpotter14 (18)

Baltimore @ Minnesota:

  1. grantmp, LASVEGASNINER, corvette49rdave (14)
  2. 49erLou, leaping_larry (16)
  3. bayboy, etb2 (20)
  4. whobob, Ten-Man, wjackalope, Ninerfromacrossthepond, urnext (22)
  5. MontanaPass, bignerd (28)

New York Giants @ New Orleans:

  1. sundaysfinest, jpgarfunkle (20)
  2. demise87, mpotter14, corvette49rdave, cassusriff (26)
  3. Dub4lif3, DuikeBuike, snowweasel30, nocal81, 5-0, bonbrillio, jtoj, JoeO, Fooch (28)
  4. nacho49 (30)
  5. YoungWillis, J2daZ, groug, ro128487, BEETLE49715, etb2, CB30, youngbuckeroo (34)

Carolina @ Tampa Bay:

  1. PHUT! (6) - That's called getting PHUT!ed!
  2. renke81, illini49er (8)
  3. Ten-Man (10)
  4. wjackalope, jpgarfunkle, etb2, beecharmer (14)
  5. albertoleecho, sfgfan, MontanaPass, Ninerfromacrossthepond, urnext, jtoj, bignerd (16)

Arizona @ Seattle:

  1. youngbuckeroo (16)
  2. Mike Hawk (18)
  3. Dub4lif3 (22)
  4. Drew K, whobob (34)
  5. nacho49, bignerd, ProfessorBigelow (36)

So that makes our week six leaderboard look like this: 

1.

howtheyscored

44

2.

ro128487

43

3.

jpgarfunkle

40

3.

cassusriff

40

5.

PHUT!

39

6.

bignerd

37

7.

nocal81

35

7.

etb2

35

7.

wjackalope

35

10.

LASVEGASNINER

34

10.

MontanaPass

34

12.

JoeO

33

12.

grantmp

33

14.

sfgfan

32

15.

5-0

31

15.

DuikeBuike

31

15.

Ten-Man

31

18.

Dub4lif3

30

19.

leaping_larry

29

19.

49erLou

29

19.

YoungWillis

29

19.

illini49er

29

23.

Joshpreet

28

23.

SpurredOn

28

23.

bonbrillio

28

23.

renke81

28

27.

gbears16

27

28.

foosball4949

26

28.

Persiflage

26

28.

groug

26

28.

mpotter14

26

28.

nacho49

26

28.

youngbuckeroo

26

28.

bayboy

26

35.

remembertheCATCH

25

36.

ar4gsw

24

36.

these3words

24

36.

shlecko

24

36.

Drew K

24

36.

CB30

24

36.

urnext

24

42.

ZeroIndulgence

23

42.

Mike Hawk

23

44.

Ninerfromacrossthepond

22

44.

ProfessorBigelow

22

44.

Sloan

22

47.

J2daZ

21

47.

Fooch

21

49.

nini9er

20

49.

sundaysfinest

20

49.

beecharmer

20

52.

mikemccwolf

19

52.

jtoj

19

54.

49ersfan29405

18

54.

Kaizre

18

56.

danknerd49

17

57.

RBoogy29

16

58.

shovel-25

15

58.

Number22Drew

15

58.

49RFAN

15

58.

BEETLE49715

15

62.

Florida Danny

14

62.

whobob

14

64.

Ninjames

13

64.

rlott#42

13

64.

corvette49rdave

13

67.

Riding The F Train

12

68.

Ceradecke

10

68.

Widowwolf

10

68.

proudcanadian99

10

68.

Iwantwinners

10

68.

49ERFAN

10

68.

albertoleecho

10

74.

ronniemac03

9

74.

Mr. Nice Guy

9

74.

Tony C

9

77.

Smithisstilltheanswer

8

78.

hudd07

7

78.

snowweasel30

7

80.

lincypoo i wuv u

6

80.

shulkdog

6

80.

supraman

6

80.

FaStRmAn

6

80.

crevis1987

6

80.

demise87

6

86.

49ersAllTheWay

5

87.

De Stijl

3

87.

JerseyNinerFan

3

87.

RilezG

3

87.

CW30

3

87.

ManBearPig21

3

87.

StevenC

3

87.

LADubbz45

3

94.

connie mack

2

94.

Tricky-Nicky

2

94.

Brendan Scolari

2

97.

UnleashTheGore

1

97.

nostocksjustbonds

1

Yowza. Nobody could do better than 20 in the New Orleans game? Really? All it would have taken was a bad prediction in that game to steal five points. For shame. Sixteen was the low score in Arizona? These are scores that wouldn't net you a single point in any other week! I mean, I had just about the worst week that anybody could have had. I picked four losers. Four! And I was only even close on zero of them.

And you let me off the hook. How did I run away with four points this week? There's only one person to blame for that: All of you.

Okay, enough of that. You didn't all suck. Some of you did pretty darn well. And you should be recognized for it.

Our man wjackalope had a pretty good week. And we all know he's been itching for one. He took seven points this week to jump... one spot? Really? Just one? Wow. Man, that was a lot of good work to only take one spot in the standings. Rough. Good job nonetheless.

So who made it so darn hard for him?

PHUT!, cassusriff, bignerd, and etb2. Great weeks all. I was going to pick the ones who did especially well, but you all were pretty awesome here, going in that seven to ten point range. wjackalope can blame the lot of you for the fact that he's not in the top five this week.

And cassusriff in particular should be back on our radar. After previously holding first place, he missed a week, did just enough to stay around the top last week, and is now back in the running with a vengeance.

I should probably just mention everybody in the top ten. ro12847 didn't have a great week, but came extremely close to stealing first place. And jpgarfunkle continues to look good (seriously, he's a good looking fella).

I want to mention whobob and corvette49rdave, too. Though they started late and have yet to climb the ranks, I keep seeing their names and if they stay in the game and keep playing like thus, they can probably compete for playoff spots.

Fooch, also, made a few moves this week. I always keep my eye on him because it's only a matter of time before he drops that 30 point week on us that he's been saving up for two and a half years.

And we like to talk about intangibles, so it's probably worth noting how clutch I am. Based only on this one week's worth of data, it should be obvious to anybody that I will always hunker down and score some Monday night points to keep you below me in the standings. CLUTCH. I'm like Jeter. You should totally see the calmness in my eyes.

Overall, it was a fun week. A lot of people scored who probably thought they had no chance. There was a lot of movement on the boards, and the top 15 is seriously tight right now. Wait... people scoring... things being tight... oh no... not again....

It might be time to stop.

And remember to double-check your scores! Let last week be a lesson to you.

In the week before their departure to Arrakis, when all the final scurrying about had reached a nearly unbearably frenzy, and old crone came to visit the mother of the boy, Paul.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments

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Good Week

Makes up for my other league disappointments. At least I finally scored points on a Denver game. Now if I can just solve my 49ers problem.

by bignerd on Oct 19, 2009 10:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

33 to 19

not to shabby. hilarious post this week howie I literally lol’d at least 5 times and rofl’d once or twice.

"Pat is still just scratching the surface." - Coach Singletary on LB Patrick Willis

by 49erLou on Oct 19, 2009 11:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Here I come

That 30 point day has eluded me the last few years, but the day shall be mine!!!!

by Fooch on Oct 19, 2009 11:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I lost a survivor pool I was in

Because those stupid Raiders beat the Eagles. So now this and my fantasy football teams are all I have. I love the write ups you do, they are very entertaining and I’m lovin’ the love. I look forward to this every week, seriously.

"We want WINNERS!" - Coach Singletary

by cassusriff on Oct 20, 2009 1:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I seem to be alternating weeks I score.

I want me some Buster

by gbears16 on Oct 20, 2009 1:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Up 7 more spots

I don’t think I am doing to bad for my first year and missing the first week of picks. Next goal, to break into the top Ten!!!

11-5... My 49ers pre-season prediction!

by Ten-Man on Oct 20, 2009 7:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

wow

a decent week and not much to show for it. Keep pluggin away I guess… I need some 1st places – it’s like 4th place or nothing for me.

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 20, 2009 8:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

sorry Howie but I think there's another error

as you can see from my picks I chose Denver to win 23-20. The final was 34-23.

Total points: actual – 57, predicted – 43, difference = 14
Differential: actual – 11, predicted – 3, difference = 8

14+8= 22.

You listed my score as 26.

Now here’s the shady part – I won’t get any more points (I’ll stay in 5th place for that game) but it would take points away from other people. Sorry folks.

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 20, 2009 8:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh holy hell.

Luckily that’s just a typo. Everybody in fifth place there took 22. I’ll fix what I wrote. JoeO also picked 23-20. Illini49er picked 23-17. Ten-Man picked 23-17. And Drew K also picked 23-17.

SCORES ARE RIGHT ME JUST TYPE BAD

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 20, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok that makes me feel better

but I’m beginning to think you really don’t want me to beat you.

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 20, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, I laid the lead up on a golden platter this week. If I really didn’t want you to beat me, I wouldn’t try so hard to beat myself.

I also think it might be worthwhile not to pursue the beating myself angle….

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 20, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm.

I’m a perfect away from being in this thing. In past seasons, I’ve been good for at least one perfect, right?

by sfgfan on Oct 20, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you’re perfect.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 20, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too bad that...

… doesn’t help this game any!

by sfgfan on Oct 20, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

After not scoring any points two weeks in a row, it is nice to get the monkey off the back.

by illini49er on Oct 20, 2009 10:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just like Steve Young did in 1994.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 20, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I always think of that

when I hear the expression “get the monkey off the back.” There’s that clip of someone… I can’t remember who now, pretending to pull the monkey of Young’s back on the sidelines at the end of the super bowl…

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 20, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dang.

Dang that Lawrence Phillips.

by sfgfan on Oct 20, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curse Tom Osbourne

For not disciplining him in college.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Oct 20, 2009 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gary Plummer?

I swear it was an LB and guy who hadn’t actually been with Steve Young and his struggles with 49ers expectations for that long.

by bignerd on Oct 20, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it was definitely Gary Plummer

"Pat is still just scratching the surface." - Coach Singletary on LB Patrick Willis

by 49erLou on Oct 20, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yup

that’s exactly right

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 20, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How do I go 5 for 6 and drop two places?

I thought I had a good week calling 5 out of 6 winners, but actually dropped two places in the standings, from 8th to 10th. I don’t think I understand how this works.

by MontanaPass on Oct 21, 2009 1:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

More than likely, you just weren’t that close on the scores. I’ll check my sheets against you predictions when I get home (where my sheets are) to be sure.

Remember: it’s closeness on point total AND point differential. If you think some points are missing, let me know which games.

It’s also worth noting that a lot of people jumped into the top 8 by having really strong weeks. So even if you did okay, them doing better can still hurt you.

But I will check tonight. Fo sho.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 21, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alright, here we go:

Your prediction was Denver winning 27 – 21. That got you a raw score of 14, and four points for the game.

Your prediction was Atlanta winning 31 – 24. That got a raw score of 20 and just missed out on getting points in the game.

Your prediction was the Vikings winning 17 – 24. Raw score: 28. Good for one point.

Your prediction was Saints winning 24 – 27. Raw score: 42. That was eight away from scoring.

Your prediction was Carolina winning 23 – 13. Raw score: 16. Good for one point.

And you missed the Cardinals win.

So you should have 6 more points than last week.

Last week you had 28. So you should have 34 now. That’s what you have.

We’re good.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 21, 2009 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scoring System

Can someone explain how the scoring is done on each game and overall please.

by BEETLE49715 on Oct 21, 2009 5:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Every score is made up of two parts: Point total and point differential.

So we see how close your prediction’s point total is to the actual score’s point total. The closer you are to zero, the better.

Then, we see how close your prediction’s point differential is to the actual point differential. Again, closer to zero is better.

Then, we add those two numbers together. That’s how you get the raw scores (the ones in parentheses).

Then, we rank each game by raw scores. The players with the five lowest raw scores get points. The lowest get five points. Next lowest get four. And so on.

And, of course, you have to pick the winner right, too.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 21, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So there's no points for picking the winner?

Just for coming closest on the point differential and total game points? I had no idea. I thought one received a point for each winner and then some other points related somehow to the point differential.

I still don’t understand the magic formula for the “raw score”, but it looks like whoever gets the lowest raw score for a game receives five points, the next lowest gets four points, and so forth until the fifth lowest, who receives one point. This makes the maximum number of points one could accumulate in a single week 30. Is that correct?

So what’s the magic formula for the raw score? And thanks for taking the time to explain.

by MontanaPass on Oct 21, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you predict a score perfectly, you get bonus points (to the tune of ten total for that game). So, theoretically, the maximum total would be 60. That would be pretty ridiculous, though.

But other than that, yeah you seem to get it. There’s no points for predicting the winner. By predicting the winner, you get your prediction scored. If you pick the loser, there’s no way you can get any points.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 21, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So what’s the magic formula for the raw score?

Isn’t there a post where this is all explained in great detail? Maybe Howie you need to just keep linking to that – or put the link in the prediction thread every week (that would be Fooch’s job).

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 22, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but if I keep explaining it anew each time, then I get better at keeping it short and being clear. On the other hand, you’re right.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well maybe you me and fooch

can write a be-all end-all explanation and edit it to make it as clear and short as possible, then post it and always have the link handy. It might also be good to say something like:

NOTE: Simply picking the correct winner DOES NOT guarantee you points for that game. You must get one of the top-5 closest raw scores in order to earn points. It is possible to predict all 6 winners in a given week and score 0 points.

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 22, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would probably be easiest just to add it or put a link in each week’s prediction thread, the way Fooch is doing the “important new rule”. I’m sure we can manage that. Fooch, you want me to write something up for that?

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is the magic formula below?

From deduction, it seems the magic formula is:

RS = |(Sa-Sb)-(Sc-Sd)| + |Pa-Pp|

where:
Sa = actual winning score
Sb = actual losing score
Sc = predicted winning score
Sd = predicted losing score
to calculate the differential in point spread.
and:
Pa = actual sum of points scored in game.
Pp = predicted sum of points.

In the case of my prediction of the Denver game, this results in:

RS = |(34-23)-(27-21)| + |57-48|
      = (11-6) + (9)
RS = 14

by MontanaPass on Oct 22, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That looks right to me, and it jives with the results I got too.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Oct 22, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

another note about scoring

part of the fun of this game for me is figuring out my raw scores before Howie posts the results – plus it means I can check him to make sure there aren’t mistakes. I do it in a textedit document (or notepad or whatever its called on a PC) – I just copy my predictions into the document, then do the calculations by hand – but I bet you could make a quick spreadsheet and it would do the man for you – I think its good for everyone to keep track of their own raw scores.

A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.

by wjackalope on Oct 22, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

… plus it means I can check him to make sure there aren’t mistakes.

No fate but what we make.

by sfgfan on Oct 22, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where's the love?

I picked 5 of the 6 winners and scored 9 points to jump 16 spots for 52nd to 36th. I even leap frogged Fooch. I’m putting everyone on notice. By week 10, I’ll be in the top 15.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Oct 25, 2009 1:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

DEMS IZ FITEIN WERDZ!

by sfgfan on Oct 26, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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