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Houston Texans open as 3 point favorite over 49ers

As some of you know, I'm originally from Las Vegas.  I'm not sure how much it's influenced some of my interests, but either way I enjoy the world of gambling on football.  When I'm down in Las Vegas during football season, I always get in a couple parlays.  Parlays can usually be a sucker bets, but they certainly make things interesting.  I've decided that each week we'll roll out the opening line for the 49ers matchup.  The people who open these lines are often inclined to know a lot more about a given team than your average fan.  When money's on the line, you certainly have to be ready.  For the purposes of this discussion, we'll be using Bodog.com's daily lines.

The 49ers open as a 3-point underdog heading into Houston.  I find this line particularly intriguing given Houston's big weekend win over Cincinnati and the 49ers own debacle two Sundays ago against Atlanta.  The home team automatically gets 3 points on the line.  So, in a not so precise way, Houston as a 3 point favorite would seem to indicate the bookies/Vegas think the 49ers and Houston are relatively even on a neutral field.  Obviously even a neutral field might change things, but for the sake of argument, we'll operate under that assumption (feel free to contribute any other assumptions you'd like).

This line seems to indicate one of two things (or maybe both): 1) The 49ers are still respected by the oddsmakers, or 2) Houston is not all that respected.  One reason the 49ers might be getting some love this week is that it seems likely they'll have Michael Crabtree in the lineup this week, potentially starting.  As much discussion as that's generating, the more important lineup issue is the likely return of Frank Gore to the starting lineup.  Aside from the two big runs against Seattle, Gore has had his troubles, but he remains Frank the Tank, the guy who generated most of the offense the last couple seasons.  He may struggle, but the upside potential is huge and bookies might not want to go against that.

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Turnovers

I think this line reflects our positive turnover ratio, and the likelihood that Shaub with throw a pic or two and Slaton coughs the ball up a lot.
 With the 49ers defense looking to bounce back I think the game line is influenced by the Texans inconsistency.

by goatfather on Oct 20, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like our matchups against the Texans

The Texans play a little more to our strengths.

Clements does better against more physical receivers like Andre Johnson than quick guys like Roddy White. For example, he’s done pretty well against Fitzgerald but struggled with Deion Branch (when healthy). Spencer should be solid again on the other side.

We have fast LB’s who can cover Slaton out of the backfield.

Owen Daniels is good but not as good as Gonzalez.

Also going to back to the Press Democrat article a few days ago, the D should fare better with an extra receiver but no FB in to protect… eluding to how the Niners have to manufacture pressure.

I think we’ll be able to shut down their run game and hopefully not give up any big plays in pass defense.

The bye week should help in many aspects too. 1. Sorting out our O-Line issues 2. Getting Gore healthy 3. Getting Crabtree up to speed and prepared 4. An extra week to scheme for the Texans.

It’s hard to predict how the offense will do with so many changes since the last game.

The bye week should count into the spread as well.

by abasketballfan on Oct 20, 2009 10:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

??
Clements does better against more physical receivers like Andre Johnson than quick guys like Roddy White. For example, he’s done pretty well against Fitzgerald but struggled with Deion Branch (when healthy). Spencer should be solid again on the other side

Andre is big physical and extremely quick.

Owen Daniels is good but not as good as Gonzalez.

Gonzalez wasn’t needed against us.

The bye week should help in many aspects too. 1. Sorting out our O-Line issues 2. Getting Gore healthy 3. Getting Crabtree up to speed and prepared 4. An extra week to scheme for the Texans.

This I agree with, and is all we have in our corner. I don’t think we match up to this team. They have some turnover issues that can be exposed, but can be dangerous on both sides of the ball. Their LB’s are good!

"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
It's the Shogun of no fun

by rlott#42 on Oct 20, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I should re-word it

Clements does better against physical receivers. Johnson can do it all but uses his strength often to beat corners.

Gonzalez had 6 catches in the game and more than a couple of those were for 1st downs. He picked our zone coverages apart and allowed the Falcons to stay in base sets with his ability to both block and catch.

Sure they got dominated overall but to say they didn’t need Gonzalez is false. He makes that offense much more dangerous than your average TE.

 I believe the matchups against the Texans are more favorable compared to the Falcons… which I should have stated in my original post. Plus I doubt they come out flat two games in a row.

by abasketballfan on Oct 20, 2009 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez had 6 catches in the game and more than a couple of those were for 1st downs. He picked our zone coverages apart and allowed the Falcons to stay in base sets with his ability to both block and catch.

Just saying statistically his nmbers would have been huge if it hadn’t been for White’s explosion, but I do agree that Owen Daniels isn’t Gonzalez, but he is extremely dangerous. He just hasn’t been as consitent as Tony has.

"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
It's the Shogun of no fun

by rlott#42 on Oct 21, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It reflects the Texans' inconsistent nature

Especially at home. They lose to a rookie QB in his debut at home, then go to Nashville and beat the defending division champs. They then lose at home to Jax, should’ve beaten AZ then won by 11 at Cincy. Seems they’re due for another home loss.

They would likely only be a one point favorite if we had a better showing in losing to Atlanta. Sitting on that for two weeks makes us look a bit unpredictable.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Oct 20, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

being a niners fan, i like to see the niners as underdog and when the game is over, the 4-2 niners leave houston

by sam635 on Oct 20, 2009 12:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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