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Baltimore’s Struggling Defense: A Warning for the 49ers

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) eludes an attempted tackle by Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed (20) in the fourth quarter while racing 58 yards in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Vikings won 33-31. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Jim Mone - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) eludes an attempted tackle by Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed (20) in the fourth quarter while racing 58 yards in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Vikings won 33-31. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Hey NinersNation, I’m Rao: A longtime 49ers fan and Bay Area expat in DC who is forced to suffer through Singletary-less football games every Sunday. As a part of Fooch’s quest to dominate the football blogosphere, I’ll be writing weekly feature stories on important issues around the league and why we, as Niners fans, should care. First up: Why the Baltimore defense is falling apart, and what we can learn from it.

After a three game losing streak, the Baltimore Ravens are going through a bye week identity crisis. For ten years, the Ravens have known exactly who they were: A physical, smash mouth defense, led by Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, that dragged its offense along for the ride – basically what the 49ers aspire to be in coming years, if not later this season. After years of waiting, however, their offense finally came together in 2008, and this season had Ravens’ fans talking dynasties and superbowls. But a funny thing happened in the first six weeks of the season: the heralded Baltimore defense forgot to show up.

Make no mistake, the 2009 Baltimore defense is not the squad that it once was. The Ravens last year ranked in the top 3 in total defense, pass yards allowed, and running yards allowed, but this year they are averaging a mediocre 333 yards allowed per game. Opposing quarterbacks are posting a 63% completion rate and an 89 point passer rating on average against the Ravens, which would have been impossible in 2008. That year, the Ravens only allowed four teams to score more than 24 points against them – a number that has already been matched this season.  So what's going on here?

Star-divide

A third-rate secondary. The unit’s clearest problem is their back end: Specifically, their inability to cover anyone. The team has allowed 242 yards per game in the air, ranking them 22nd in the league, and only five teams have allowed more plays of 20+ yards.  Sure, Baltimore has played teams with good passing games, but they make questionable receivers look like superstars – no one can excuse allowing Vikings WR Sidney Rice a 176 yard game. With the loss of veteran cornerback Samari Rolle in the offseason, the Ravens have the untested CBs struggling in the position and instead of making big plays, they have a penchant for giving them up. The Ravens have already allowed 6 passes of 40 yards or more, matching their total for the entire 2008 season. This is a unit that is constantly tested by opponents and fails miserably – as Baltimore Beatdown blogger Bruce Raffel colorfully put it, "Our cornerbacks couldn't cover a sleeping homeless guy with a blanket."

It all starts with the front office. To some extent, these problems are a result of poor management decisions: Two big offseason acquisitions, CB Domonique Foxworth and Chris Carr, have so far seemed to be busts. Nickel back Carr, particularly, has been repeatedly beaten in obvious passing situations, like when Cincinnati’s Andre Caldwell torched him for the game winning touchdown in week 5. Some blame can be passed on to the coaching staff as well: New defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, replacing defensive genius Rex Ryan, lacks the former’s knack for creative blitzing schemes and has instituted a more vanilla defense.

"Veteran" sometimes just means old. But secondary play this bad can’t just be caused by suspect play calling or a few bad players. The more likely reason: The Baltimore defense is finally showing signs of its age all around. ILB Ray Lewis is entering his 14th season, and lacks the speed and instinct he once had; FootballOutsiders argued he’s not even in the top 10 LB’s in the league anymore, and his play has unquestionable suffered this season. Fellow linebackers Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson have also slowed with time, hurting their ability to cover the middle of the field effectively and putting even more pressure on the strugging secondary. This front seven is still solid – they rank sixth against the running game with 3.5 yards per carry, and 11th in sacks – but its no longer as dominant as it once was, and it can’t make up for the team’s questionable back end play in the way it did in 2008. This is a unit that got its hands on one of every four passes thrown last season, and ranked number 1 on fourth down. Those numbers have returned to Earth in 2008, and the secondary is paying the price for it.

The house always wins. Some would argue that the unit is salvaged by the freakishly effective strong safety Ed Reed. In all fairness, he can always be counted on to come up with a big play at least once a week, like his spectacular forced fumble in week 5. But the reason he is so successful is because he takes risks – playing receivers close and jumping routes to come up with big interceptions – and gamblers always lose in the long run. When this team had an elite pass rush, like it did in 2006, such tactics made sense, since quarterbacks were too busy avoiding Ray Lewis to play chess games with Baltimore’s secondary. Those days are over now, and Ed Reed’s aggressive style of play is as likely to lead to big plays for the other team as quarterbacks have more time in the pocket.

Whether it’s because of their aging stars, poor game planning, or just bad play, the Ravens defense this season seems like it won’t be the juggernaut it once was. Their season could still be salvaged on the shoulders of Joe Flacco, but, as of now, they sit in third place in the NFC North with the Colts, Broncos, and two games against the Steelers still on the schedule. What does this mean to us Niners fans? Outside of one less team to fear in the playoffs, it’s a warning that solid defense doesn’t last forever. The difference between a great defense and a mediocre one isn’t big in the NFL, and as Baltimore’s struggles show, defensive dynasties are quickly destroyed by age and injury. Every year with a struggling offense is another year our defense gets older and closer to mediocrity. So here’s hoping it doesn’t take until Patrick Willis’ 14th season for the 49ers to find their own Joe Flacco.

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Very interesting

This is going to be a weekly feature?

What we've got here is a failure to communicate.

by chikmagnet_565 on Oct 22, 2009 1:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

weekly schedule

Yep. I’ve always wanted to add more national content to the site. Not so much to overwhelm the 49ers-ness of the site, but enough to give people a little more to talk about.

So the plan will be to have a preview of the weekend’s action on Friday or Saturday (Josh Branco posted that last week), the recap post on Monday by urnext and then the weekly feature post on Wednesday or Thursday by raorao. The writers might alternate different roles, but that’s the general plan.

by Fooch on Oct 22, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would say the issue with the Ravens is

1 the loss of Ryan It’s possible that they don’t need Rex Ryan since Lewis has been in the system long enough. However the scheming for each team seems to be off as they are now not stopping the run.

2 The loss of Bart Scott is huge. Ray isn’t young anymore, it’s funny we’d be talking about this when in another post about what if trades (willis for brady) I said the D would plummit in total D with his loss. It’s obvious the loss of Bart Scott is huge in Baltimore.

3 When you go from defensive coaches to offensive coaches the focus changes. There is more emphasis on the offense then the defense. I think it’s like the NIners situation whereas the right Coaches were there just in the wrong spot.

Meaning that if Rex Ryan were the coach and Harbaugh the OC, they’d be favorite in the AFC and possibly undefeated.

If you’re wondering what I meant about SF, Sing as the Coach, Nolan DC, and Norv T as the OC….that would have been perfect.

"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
It's the Shogun of no fun

by rlott#42 on Oct 22, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ryan

I think that the loss of Rex Ryan has to be the biggest factor in the sudden change in the Ravens’ defense. Age can definitely affect them, and their secondary (outside of Ed Reed) isn’t much to write home about, but losing a great scheming mind always hurts.

by sfgfan on Oct 22, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

You’d expect some decline, but not the kind of decline we’ve seen this year. Stability at coordinator has a great deal to do with a team’s success, even if you’re running the same scheme as the year before you’re bound to feel an effect when the D.C. leaves.

by smileyman on Oct 22, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same over all....

…. scheme doesn’t always translate to the same kind of playcalls. I think that’s where the Ravens are missing Ryan most.

by sfgfan on Oct 22, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

GIVE ME MORE 49ERS NEWS....

WHO cares about baltimore… good article though…

"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are"

by Bo$$Ixta! on Oct 22, 2009 2:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Really cool article

Good idea on the new weekly feature, i like it a lot

Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.

by theghostofjasonellison on Oct 22, 2009 2:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

I’ve watched 4 Ravens games this season; Chargers, Patriots, Bengals and Vikings. The problem is not the defense, I cannot emphasis this enough. It’s still a very good defense and isn’t anything below Top 10 worthy.

The problem is offensive games plans. They are foolish and horrendous. The last three games, all losses, they’ve opened the game trying to air the ball out with Joe Flacco . . . fall behind than try to air the ball out more with Joe Flacco with less success. They don’t hand the ball off to Ray Rice until the 4th quarter which coincidentally is when they take control of the game.

If the dumb coaching staff can figure out it’s time to hand the ball to Ray Rice in the 1st quarter they would control the clock, get the early lead and limit the the plays on defense. Instead the Ravens aren’t using the clock, losing the field position battle, producing unnecessary 3 and outs and burning up their defense. Give an offensive line enough plays and they are going to figure out that same blitz the 2nd time around. A defense can only scheme the pass rush for so long. In addition it doesn’t help the defense is constantly put in unfavorable positions. Opposing offensive coordinators are going to dial up a lot of long passing routes when field position starts at the 45 yard line. The Ravens aren’t even getting the best out of that offense because it’s so unbalanced towards the pass for 3 quarters.

by bignerd on Oct 22, 2009 8:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I sort of disagree

The pass defense has been terrible since day one.
(I’ve been watching Ravens games because Ray Rice is on all of my fantasy teams)

What we've got here is a failure to communicate.

by chikmagnet_565 on Oct 22, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Imagine though...

Being known for a dominant defense, and having Patrick Willis for 14 years. Thats a pretty good feeling.

Hopefully the offense part will work out…

by fortyniners on Oct 22, 2009 9:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And winning a SB too

What we've got here is a failure to communicate.

by chikmagnet_565 on Oct 22, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a Ravens fan...

I have a few things to add (or lots, as it turns out):

- The starting cornerbacks aren’t as terrible as they look. Foxworth and Washington have been left in single coverage over and over again against some very good QB/WR combos. Sooner or later, especially with the way the game is called now, they will get beat. The nickel has been awful (Carr and Walker), the SS Landry has been weak in coverage AND pass rush, and FS Reed is trying to do too much.

- Their declining pass rush is the main reason why the defensive numbers have gone up. Pryce has dropped off considerably, Gregg isn’t the same after coming back from injury, Ngata is still a beast but gets doubled every play, and Suggs is too busy planning parties with all his cash to bother showing up for every play (flashes of greatness, yes, but not for four quarters).

- Losing Bart Scott (much as I love him as a player) hasn’t been significant in any way. Jarret Johnson is playing great. Scott is the latest in a long line of LBs who look great playing next to Ray Lewis, but look average elsewhere. Losing Jim Leonhard is a much bigger deal, as Landry has failed to impress.

- Greg Mattison has looked a little over his head as a DC. Adjustments take a long time, or don’t work. I was hoping that by eliminating some of the complexity of Rex Ryan’s schemes, the Ravens D would look better late against no huddle offenses, but they’ve been just as bad in crunch time this season. Also, overload blitzes (a Ryan specialty) only work if you can pressure the QB. Otherwise, you leave the door wide open.

- The Ravens are three plays away from being 6-0. Not having a decent kicker cost them the Vikings game (44 yds should be doable in the NFL), Carr got facemasked (uncalled) by Caldwell on the TD play against the Bengals, and tight penalties on the final drive lost the game at New England (as they did in the final drive against Cincy). I’m not arguing the legitimacy of the calls (though as a fan, I certainly have my doubts), but it shows how fine the line is between great and mediocre.

- I have a major issue with the statement in the article that the front office is to blame. If there is one thing the Ravens have, it’s a solid FO. Ozzie Smith is the most underrated GM in the league, and barring too many years of Boller (it’s easy to say go get a franchise QB, just ask the 22 teams who don’t have one why they don’t just pop down to the store and pick one up?), the Ravens would have more than one ring. Smith is great at not overpaying for free agents (though time will tell with Suggs), and drafts as well as anyone in the league. With the exception of a couple years destroyed by either salary purges or injuries, the Ravens have been one of the most consistently good teams in the NFL. This leads me to a final point that’s actually relevant to Niners fans (instead of just to me):

- Defense buys consistency. If Singletary is successful with his plan (and I hope he is, because I’m a huge fan), the 49ers have many years of playoff runs to look forward to. Despite the best efforts of the NFL, defense still wins championships. Even the Colts, when they won the SB, won it with defense. The Steelers (much as it pains me to admit it) are probably the best example of this. The Giants beat the vaunted Pats in ‘07 with it. It’s tough to do, because fans and media get awfully whiny when you play that way (believe me, I’ve heard lots of complaints over the years about the Ravens), but no tougher than creating the next Warner-Faulk combo. As a fan of defense generally, I’m looking forward to another smash-mouth defensive team in the league.

by ptensioned on Oct 27, 2009 3:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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