Panthers Watch 2009: Draft Choice Odds

by Fooch on Oct 23, 2009 10:00 AM PDT in News Comment 5 comments

Yea, so the Panthers tough win over the Bucs did absolutely nothing to help their odds of getting a top 3 pick. Really how inconsiderate can they be???

As mentioned before (for those who missed it), in addition to their various unit efficiency ratings, Football Outsiders puts together odds of teams to make the playoffs. On the flipside of that, FO also provides odds on teams getting the #1 draft pick and a top 3 pick. They don't include odds any lower in the draft, but we can live with these for now.

For this week, with their win over the Bucs, Carolina's odds dipped to a 1.1% chance of getting the #1 pick and an 8.9% chance of getting a top 3 pick. Not great odds, but hey, at least they're not 0%!

I thought I'd use this weekly post to also include the NFC West's various odds according to FO. They're certainly not awe-inspiring, but they're worth looking over. What I find interesting is that the Arizona win over Seattle actually improved the 49ers odds of making the playoffs. Last week the 49ers had a 28.6% chance of making the playoffs. This week they have a 33.3% chance. Seattle had the better odds, but obviously those plummeted with the home loss. In fact, they dropped from 61.2% to 15.0%. Arizona's odds sit at 56.1% of making the playoffs.

This week could make for an interesting swing in the odds. The 49ers are heading to Houston, Arizona is heading to the Meadowlands to face the Giants, and the Panthers host Buffalo. Obviously we know what three results we want.

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Top 3 draft pick

Personally, I’m not sure I would want to see the 49ers commit the money necessary to sign a top 3 pick. If you look back over the past 6 years, only Willis and possible Staley have performed at a first round level. Rashaun Woods, Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, Balmer,and Lawson have all under-performed. (Granted Davis and Lawson have look better this year, but they are still overpaid for their performance level and sucked up a lot of salary cap space while doing very little over the past several years.) The niners are not very good at picking in the first round. If we do end up with a high pick, I would almost prefer to see us trade down. Especially since the QB choices in this year’s draft are weak. If we do commit a large amount of money to a high draft pick, I hope it’s for a offensive lineman.

by RedRuss on Oct 23, 2009 10:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Lawson

I actually don’t think he’s making as much as you think he is (remember, he was a late first round pick). I think if the 49ers let him walk, he’d probably find a home that is paying him about what he’s being paid now. It’s still a little too early to commit to that kind of a conclusion with Balmer, too.

I agree on the other “overpaid” first rounders you listed, however.

by sfgfan on Oct 23, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With Sam Bradford being hurt and out for the rest of the season I don't expect him to be in the 2010 draft

But, if he does, then he could be a later round pick as most teams will not pick him high after a year off with a shoulder injury.

I think the Carolina pick will proably be in the #9 to # 15 area. Still wouldn’t hurt to trade down as there should be a good selection for most positions later in the 1st round.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 23, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs