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Shaun Hill: Rookie Season

This is my first post, so go easy on me…

I wanted to analyze Shaun Hill’s rookie season.  Why am I analyzing his rookie season when he has been in the league for 8 years you ask?  Well Hill has officially started 16 games, so I am going to call that his rookie season.  (Note: I am only looking at games Hill has started.)  Hill’s rookie record is 10-6.  Which depending on the Division you are in is playoff worthy. Here are his stats:

285/477 for 3135 yards.  That is a completion % of 59%, and an average of 11 yards per pass. He has 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions, with 43 sacks.

He has rushed the ball 41x for 176 yards.  An average of 4.2 yards a carry.  He has 3 touchdowns, and 11 fumbles.

Let’s compare this to some other notable rookie starts:

                              Comp     Att      Pct         Yds      Avg      TD     Int      Sck     Rush:  Att     Yds      Avg     TD     FUM  Record
Shaun Hill             285      477     59%    3135      11        21      11      43                   41     176      4.2       3        11     10-6

Matt Ryan              265      434     61%    3440      7.9       16      11      17                  55      104     1.9       1         6        11-5

Joe Flacco            257       428      60%    2971      6.9       14     12      32                  52       180    3.5      2         11       11-5

Peyton Manning   326      575       56%    3739      6.5       26     28      22                  15        62       4.1     0         3        3-13

 

Based on these numbers, who had a better rookie season?  Additional, do you think Singletary was too quick to pull the plug on Hill.  I really liked what Smith brought to the table against the Texans, but do we really think that he will be able to do it every week.  Plus what you have to remember is that Smith and Hill played in two different types of offenses on Sunday.  Hill had the traditional football offense, while Smith was in the spread.

So if Smith is going to be successful, will Rayes open up the play book?  I attached a poll because I think they are cool.  Please feel free to make any comments below.

Poll
Who had a better 'rookie' season?
Shaun Hill
14 votes
Matt Ryan
52 votes
Joe Flacco
8 votes
Peyton Manning
11 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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Different way to look at it...

But, with Shaun Hill, this is an accumulation of years learning from experienced QB’s… So it’s hard to be able to compare because they are quite different. None the less, seeing those stats of Hill is quite surprising.

I do not think Hill was pulled to early. Our team is built more for a QB like Smith. The sacks for Hill were ridiculously high. That won’t happen near as much. Of course with Smith throwing the ball down field more, he will have more INT. But we’ll see how that works out.

by ZonaBacks10 on Oct 28, 2009 10:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow, Peyton Manning threw some serious INTs...

Bengie Molina is the slowest human in existence- except maybe Homer Simpson. And Man-Ram.

by Ramah71 on Oct 28, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let the Westcoast Spread Offense begin!!!!

49ers al Grito de Guerra!!! hahaha

by 49erSalvatrucha on Oct 28, 2009 10:27 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

First

3135/477 !=11. It equals a relatively pedestrian 6.6 YPA, and that sacks number is huge.

Second, you’re comparing Shaun Hill’s 16 games spread over like 3 seasons with 3 different teams played by a guy who’d been in the league for 5 whole seasons before his first start to 3 guys who had just come out of college with just a training camp behind them. Suffice to say, Hill is not a rookie, nor was he in 2007. It’s not a fair comparison, at all.

Could Hill be effective in the offense we ran in the second half? Probably somewhat, but Smith is more mobile and has a stronger arm to get the ball into tighter spaces. As long as he’s not turning the ball over, he’s a better player. If he starts throwing picks left and right, it becomes a problem. However, I really, really don’t expect to see Hill back unless Smith gets injured. If Smith is performing poorly enough to get yanked, we’ll be well out of the playoff race and I’d expect they’ll go to Davis rather Hill to see what we’ve got at QB for the future (i.e. do we need to draft a future starter or a backup plan?).

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Oct 28, 2009 10:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Math Mistake

You are right about the 6.6 YPA. I did 3135/285 instead of 3135/477.

Maybe I jumped to conclusions by calling those starts his ‘rookie’ season, but what if we compare just the first 16 starts of QBs in the NFL right now. With few exceptions, most QB’s struggle in the begining.

I just think it is unfair to pull the plug on Hill so soon. And I will stick by saying that the offense we have now is not designed for Smith. If Rayes calls the same types of plays he called in the last half of the game the rest of the season then we have a chance. But we all know the type of plays that are going to be called against the Colts. Run, Run, Pass, Punt.

by twolfe2 on Oct 28, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The stats arent comparable

He has had more time to learn and watch film. Just like everyone else said, not logically comparable

by june8thjrat on Oct 28, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can't call that a rookie season ...

For the same reason you nobody called Brady’s first year playing his rookie season.

Look, a guy sits on the bench, he plays in practice, he charts plays during games … he learns a lot. He has several preseasons to get used to the speed of the NFL game.

It’s just not equivalent.

Furthermore, as I’ve said before, you can’t expect Shaun Hill to improve for one simple reason:

QBs often improve their mental handling of the game, but very rarely their physical tools. But Shaun Hill’s mental game is already strong, so there’s not much room for improvement there. His faults are physical.

Lastly, no, I don’t expect Smith to be as good as he was in that half, but he could be a lot worse than that and still be better than Hill has been this year.

by Ronaldinho on Oct 28, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Bench

I don’t think anyone learns just sitting on the bench or in preseason. Sure you get more playing time, but for QBs like Flacco and Ryan who played for 5 years in college, I would take them out of college over a 2 or 3 year back up any time.

Plus you have to remember that Hill was undrafted. So how much time did he really have, and how much learning was he really able to do.

by twolfe2 on Oct 28, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

By that logic, EVERY rookie QB should start from day 1, right?

But that flies in the face of what everybody agrees is the best way to let them learn: do NOT throw them into the fire that they’re ready.

I mean, everybody seems to agree that the Packers did the right thing with Rodgers compared to what we did with Smith. He didn’t get squat for PT his first several years, but clearly has developed as a QB over that time.

Flacco was actually nothing special his rookie year. He wasn’t Alex-Smith bad, but he was on a much better team. 6.5 YPA is borderline acceptable. 2.8% int rate isn’t anything to write home about. Everybody praising him to the skies is making the textbook mistake of crediting the QB with the team’s success.

by Ronaldinho on Oct 28, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So....

Last year was Rodgers’ rookie year, right?

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Oct 28, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, the methodology is flawed

Even looking beyond that, the sack #‘s put Ryan waaaay beyond Hill. Some of those are on the o-line, and o-coordinator but I’ve seen Hill walk into way too many sacks.

Morgan breaks through in 2009!

by grantmp on Oct 28, 2009 11:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

… but I’ve seen Hill walk into way too many sacks.

Or stand there for them.

by sfgfan on Oct 28, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What

is your point? That Hill should still be starting? or ???

by CorneliusJ on Oct 28, 2009 11:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes

I think that Hill should still be starting.

Or, we should have told the media that he is still starting. That way the Colts would have game planned for him. Then game time put Smith out there. Mario Williams even said that he forgot about Smith, so if we hid him a lit bit more for this week, it might have surprised the Colts also.

by twolfe2 on Oct 28, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You’re crazy to think for a second that Alex Smith would catch the Colts off-guard.

by brianmc27 on Oct 28, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I think they might have watched our tape from last week.

Furthermore, the notion that anybody is doing any special game-planning against Smith is silly. There is no book on him.

This isn’t a case of say, Shaun Hill, where you simply dare him to beat you in the air. Smith hasn’t seen game action in over two years. What, exactly, would game-planning against him consist of?

by Ronaldinho on Oct 28, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They don't game plan for Smith

They game plan for our O-Line, and if they’re really serious about preparing for this game (like I hope they’re not), they’ll pull tape from VD and Crabs.

They’re daring Smith/Hill/Davis to stay upright for long enough to make reads against an excellent secondary- on their backs, Sexy Rexy is every bit as good as Tom Brady

49er 'til I die! (if they don't kill me first)

by LA49er on Oct 28, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well you saw today's game

You still think Shaun Hill should be starting?

What we've got here is a failure to communicate.

by chikmagnet_565 on Nov 1, 2009 8:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You just can't call it a rookie season

Hill had 6 years to prepare for his “rookie season”, guys like Manning and Ryan were thrown right into the fire. Beyond that when you are 22-23 you are probably going to get a lot better in the next few years, when you are 29-30 you are at your peak so struggling is not okay. If Hill had been a starter as a true rookie he likely would have been laughably bad.

If Hill were 22 years old you could argue that we have a promising player but he’s not. He’s not very good and he probably won’t get any better, I wish people would just stop fawning over him. He’s a capable backup and spot starter, nothing more.

by Brendan Scolari on Oct 28, 2009 8:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well..

Baking numbers to make a delicious cake with lot’s of sugar is a staple here. It’s Ninerfan scripture, older than the book of Genesis.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Oct 29, 2009 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting numbers

Especially the number of sacks. I enjoyed this post but we all need to come back to earth for a minute and think about everything that leads up to these numbers. As most people have said, Hill had several years to learn from other QB’s, understand the flow of the game and practice with the teams. I don’t know how it would turn out but I’m sure you would see a big difference if you posted opposing teams records for those “rookie seasons” to go along with it. Hill hasn’t had too many “big games” against dominant opponents that he has won and I feel this week would have been his first. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Hill fan but I really expected him to do much better than he has this year. He can’t take all the blame with the atrocious o-line and Raye’s run up the middle offense. I’m not on the Smith bandwagon but I’m not opposed to putting him in there to see what he’s got after what he did last week. I also won’t judge him too much if he does horrible this week bacause it’s gonna be a really tough game for the whole team. I wish him the best!

by Haggardninja on Oct 30, 2009 1:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs


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