*Adjusted* Remaining Strength of Schedule

Looks like a couple of other posts going around about remaining games, here's one more from Fantasy Football Cafe with an adjusted calculations for the remaining games.

Week 9 update: Looks like Cardinals still have 2nd easiest schedule, while 49ers are at 5th easiest.  Carolina draft pick watch- they have the 5th  toughest schedule. 

Updated Wildcard watch- Looks like Cowboys record is better and remaining schedule is easier than Eagles and Giants (normal strength of schedule says that Eagles and Cowboys remaining schedule is same difficulty). Cowboys win that Division, and let's assume Cardinals win the division.

49ers have a much easier schedule than the Bears and Panthers, so 49ers have the edge over the other 4-5 teams. So there are 2 spots left for 5 teams. Falcons have same difficulty schedule as 49ers, and Falcons win the tie breaker, so let's give that wildcard spot to Falcons.  Giants have a tough schedule remaining.

49ers have an easier schedule than Packers and Eagles, but thoese teams have a 1 game lead so far. Looks like the head to head matchups in those games will be huge.


I found a site that has calculated an adjusted Strength of Remaining Schedule.


In addition to the basic strength of schedule using records of teams with remaining games, they have a category where they adjusted a teams record based on the strength of schedule of the games they already played. This is described more after the jump. 

We know where we are relative to the Cardinals, but here are the other potential wild-card teams (Vikings and Saints only teams not included)


Rank of Adjusted Strength of Schedule Remaining. (1 = easiest schedule)

9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
2. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
6. Atlanta Falcons (5-4)
12. Green Bay Packers (5-4)
16. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
24. NY Giants (5-4)
5. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
14. Chicago Bears (4-5)
28. Carolina Panthers (4-5)



Here is the link, I have also copy pasted their page completely after the jump.




Strength of Schedule

Most strength of remaining schedule calculations suffer from two flaws:

1. Although strength of schedule charts are based on the assumption that not all wins are equal, the data used to assess the opponents' strength is based on those same raw winning percentages.

2. Due to injuries and other short-term events, the strength of teams can fluctuate over an NFL season, so past statistics don't always give an accurate picture of the true difficulty of the matchups ahead.

To alleviate those flaws, the Cafe has come up with a different method to assess Strength of Schedule:

1. When calculating the winning percentage of future opponents, the strength of their past schedule is part of the equation. Hence, a team with a 7-3 record that had an easy schedule so far will be considered a weaker opponent than a team with a 7-3 record that has beaten teams which themselves have a high winning percentage. Although the actual data is still based on winning percentages, the deeper algorithm should provide for more accurate results.

2. To accomodate short-term changes in team strength, the Cafe's Strength of Schedule chart also uses the data provided by Cafe experts who rank the current team strength each and every week in what is known as the Cafe's NFL Barometer.

Ultimately, these two figures are merged to create the Cafe's Strength of Schedule rankings. Enjoy!

TEAM Class W% Cafe W% Enh W% Bar W%
Cincinnati (7-2) 0.387 0.692 0.384 1.000
Arizona (6-3) 0.365 0.692 0.384 1.000
New Orleans (9-0) 0.413 0.700 0.400 1.000
Pittsburgh (6-3) 0.367 0.700 0.400 1.000
San Francisco (4-5) 0.413 0.711 0.421 1.000
Atlanta (5-4) 0.444 0.712 0.424 1.000
Seattle (3-6) 0.429 0.718 0.436 1.000
San Diego (6-3) 0.452 0.726 0.452 1.000
Dallas (6-3) 0.524 0.729 0.457 1.000
Denver (6-3) 0.492 0.734 0.468 1.000
Cleveland (1-7) 0.465 0.739 0.478 1.000
Green Bay (5-4) 0.452 0.743 0.487 1.000
Baltimore (4-4) 0.479 0.749 0.497 1.000
Chicago (4-5) 0.516 0.751 0.501 1.000
Indianapolis (9-0) 0.484 0.752 0.503 1.000
Philadelphia (5-4) 0.524 0.754 0.507 1.000
Houston (5-4) 0.492 0.756 0.513 1.000
St. Louis (1-8) 0.492 0.759 0.518 1.000
Miami (4-5) 0.508 0.759 0.519 1.000
Minnesota (8-1) 0.524 0.765 0.529 1.000
New England (6-3) 0.540 0.766 0.532 1.000
Jacksonville (5-4) 0.516 0.770 0.539 1.000
Detroit (1-8) 0.508 0.770 0.540 1.000
NY Giants (5-4) 0.587 0.771 0.542 1.000
Oakland (2-7) 0.541 0.777 0.554 1.000
Buffalo (3-6) 0.556 0.777 0.555 1.000
NY Jets (4-5) 0.556 0.779 0.558 1.000
Carolina (4-5) 0.587 0.779 0.558 1.000
Tennessee (3-6) 0.540 0.780 0.561 1.000
Washington (3-6) 0.619 0.783 0.567 1.000
Kansas City (2-7) 0.565 0.791 0.582 1.000
Tampa Bay (1-8) 0.619 0.804 0.607 1.000
Class W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents (classical version)
Cafe W% = Average between Enh W% and Bar W%
Enh W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents, where strength of schedule is calculated two levels deep (enhanced version)
Bar W% = Simulated winning percentage based on the Cafe's weekly NFL Barometer (posted in the Cafe's Rankings section)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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