49ers-Rams: Any Given Sunday?
by David Fucillo on Oct 3, 2009 8:00 AM PDT
in San Francisco 49ers News
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PrintThe 49ers enter tomorrow's home game with the Rams as rather overwhelming favorites. Or at least, overwhelming gambling favorites. It's got some folks around here rather confident, even without Frank Gore in the lineup. It's safe to say it's been quite a while since there's been kind of confidence heading into any 49ers game.
Of course, the common refrain in the NFL is that on any given Sunday, any NFL team can supposedly beat any other NFL team. When your team is hot you hate to hear that and it can come across as a bit Debbie Downer-ish. Nonetheless, for a game like this it's certainly worth at least pondering the other end of the confidence spectrum. Fortunately for us, somebody has gone about researching game probabilities: the good people of Advanced NFL Stats.
Much of our statistical analysis at NN comes from Football Outsiders, but obviously they're not the only show in town. I actually came across this particular information via Mike Sando's NFC West blog over at the world wide leader. I won't even begin to try and explain how all this works, but for now, there's the explanation at their site and then the author of the site explains it a bit for the New York Times' Fifth Down Blog.
The crux of this particular information is that the St. Louis Rams have a 23% chance of beating the 49ers this week. To compare with the rest of the division, the Seahawks have a 13% chance of winning in Indianapolis (the Cardinals have a bye).
So what exactly would it take for the Rams to pull an upset in San Francisco? One could argue the potential for the team to come out flat following last week's ending. That's certainly a possibility, but I'd like to think Mike Singletary is the X-factor that can prevent that. Obviously I have no concrete proof of that, but I'm more hoping based on his motivational abilities. I'd like to think the 49ers are a team that can, for the most part, avoid coming out flat.
In terms of straight personnel and Xs and Os, any chance of a Rams upset would probably come down to two things. First, how the Rams defense handles Glen Coffee and Michael Robinson. If they can shut the running game down they would put themselves in a position to succeed. Obviously the 49ers passing attack could find success, but given the overall struggles of the 49ers offense, one can argue the Rams would be in a much better position.
The second thing is the turnover battle. Obviously they'll want to force 49ers turnovers, but just as important is protecting the ball against an aggressive, swarming 49ers defense. The 49ers defense has shown great improvement and if the Rams are going to have any chance of winning, they'll need to avoid any turnovers.
I realize this is not a Rams blog, but I nonetheless think there is value in considering potential worst case scenarios. We've stated plenty of times that the 49ers have to win this game and have no excuses to lose the game. Nonetheless, as history shows us, anything is possible.
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overlookin da rams
dat’s da only way we loose 2 da lambs
A great opportunity to create some separation in the division
Win today and we have swept the first round of games in the NFC West. That’s a huge advantage and not one we should fritter away by overlooking the Rams. Hell, even Detroit won last week!
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
This is why I worry a bit.
But just a little.
The Niners’ offensive strategy is to be conservative. That has kept the ball away from more powerful offenses like Arizona, Minnesota and even Seattle.
But when the Niners play a team that has less talent, playing it too close to the vest could keep the less talented team close. If the team runs, say, instead of exploiting weaknesses in the Rams’ pass defense, at the end of the game the Niners may find themselves one turnover away from being upset.
That’s why I hope they step on the accelerator a little and take no prisoners with the Rams. Next week will be a much bigger challenge. This is a good week to give future opponents something else on film to worry about.
by Bob In Beaverton on Oct 3, 2009 8:44 AM PDT reply actions
Absolutely. This is a great opportunity to open up the offense.
A low-risk opportunity against a defense that is banged up and not playing well – maybe even discouraged. By allowing the 9er offense to mix it up a little more, future opponents will be forced to game plan more intensively than at present. Besides that, S. Hill has earned the chance to demonstrate that he can carry the team with his arm in non-desperation situations.
I am not worried about the Lambs one-dimensional offense. It appears they will be playing a lot of 2-TE because Bulger, Laurent, and Avery are all out. All the 9ers need to do is stack the box to stop Jackson, then put in the Dime on 3rd & long and let Bolling throw some INTs. If the Rams score 10 points, it’ll be by luck.
Step on the accelerator they should...
I agree with the both of you on this matter. Open up the offense, not just by mixing up the plays and being creative, but how ‘bout lettin’ Shaun ‘wing’ it? If anything, and AT THE VERY LEAST, please let ’em throw the damn ball on third down if and when the game is on the line this time.
(This just in…)
Ralph Barbieri says, “Go Shaun!”
by Waiting4JoshMorgan on Oct 3, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
your making me nervous
I think they should put it in high gear and blow them away I want to see if it can be done raise confidence and get other teams nervous. GO NINERS!!!
by japanesezero on Oct 3, 2009 8:57 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
This might be more of a litmus test...
…than any of our other 3 games. If we’re going to be good, we’ve got to come out, not mess around and win games like this. Good teams don’t lose games at home to teams in the lower levels of the league.
Never use a big word where a diminutive alternative would suffice.
I'd like to see
us really throttle the rams. Why haven’t we brought Kory Sheets up from the practice squad. Seems like we could do without one of the lesser playing WRs (Hill?) and have more RBs, if we’re a running team and all. Sheets was the sheet! in preseason
Sheets
from reports this week has a lot of holes in his blocking game. You would think that with a run-first offense that has a true fullback to block that it wouldn’t be such a big deal, but that’s apparently the knock on him.
Still, if he were spelling Coffee and it’s a running down the blocking wouldn’t be an issue.
I’d hate to see the possibility that Coffee gets knocked out and the running falls to Robinson.
But what I want to see is more passing, early. It would nice to see a fast start, get up by three scores, and then grind Coffee for the second half. That’d work.
by Bob In Beaverton on Oct 3, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
The games you are suppose to win are the usualy the most difficult.
Just ask the Vikings, they were suppose to beat the 49ers at home, just like we are suppose to beat the Rams at home. We have to jump on them early and often. Send some heavy blitz packages at Boller and shut down Jackson who usually plays us well. This will be an interesting game.
BKA optimist prime- Got the Semi runnin' on 49er koolaid!!
Blasphemous beings, the NINERS will never forget!!
Eric Berry anyone?
So true
How do you think we beat AZ? Everybody thought that was a lock for them
Looking to put San Fran*six-o* here some time soon!
Now the shoes on the other foot! Go Niners
BKA optimist prime- Got the Semi runnin' on 49er koolaid!!
Blasphemous beings, the NINERS will never forget!!
Eric Berry anyone?
Coach Sing
is the difference maker here. I really believe he will have this team in the right mind-space to treat this game as a must win… I love the way this team has rallied around his intensity and made it their own. It’s inspiring.
Time for some vindication for Football Outsiders
Didn’t they have the Rams as one of their ‘surprise’ teams of 2009, looking for them to win 7+ games?
And didn’t they say that basically, over the last few seasons, that the 49ers were only slightly better than the Detroit Lions? OUCH!
I could be wrong, but I think that’s how I remember some of their preseason comments. (If I am wrong, then I would welcome someone to clear this up for me).
If so, then this game is the PERFECT opportunity for FO to show us how smart they are (LOL)!
the vikings loss may have kept this game form becomign a trap game...
even though it hurt me a lot to watch that Favre [site decorum]. The team is probably really pissed about last week and will now use the lambs to vent some of their rage… At least i hope they do haha
You're right, but I would say this.
There are only 16 games in a season. If you figure that each game is three hours long, then you have 16 X 3 = 48.
Basically (excluding the pre & post season) each team plays 48 hours a year. TWO DAYS!
There ’ain’t gonna be any trap games in SF, at least not as long as Singletary is the HC.’
He’ll have them ready to play each and every Sunday. They may lose, but it won’t be because they weren’t ready to play.
Guaranteed!
We're they not ready to play
or were they just playing badly.
There’s a difference between the two, son. (LOL).
Try and figure it out.
Of course..
since you probably didn’t watch the game, they came out flat, and Hill was horrid most of it.
Of course, you would actually had to watch the game to figure that out.
I did.
Well, we're waiting....
BTW:
Weren’t you one of those who relentlessly ’Beat the drum (pun intended) for FO., drummer?"
I know there are a few you ‘FO crack addicts here.’ Weren’t you one of them, drummer?
If so, stand up like a man and admit it!
Oh, I think you just don't want to admit it, now do you drummer?
I don’t blame you, son. It would essentially be a public admission of how foolish you are, right?
I mean it’s one thing if everyone knows it. Another thing for you to admit it, right?
Can’t say that I blame you.
Sooooo...
Is this more evidence of your “Superior Football Knowledge”? You remember how that turned out for you in a FO thread?
I put up a nice summary of your meltdown in it.
Well, we're waiting....
So that WAS you.
OK. Tell me more of that ‘nonsense.’
Like the Rams being their ‘surprise’ team and the Niners slated to win like ‘three games this season.’ LOL!
Or this. I think they had Brandon Marshall rated as a top 10 WR in 2008 and Devin Hester in the 50’s.
DUH! Ya think it might be different now that those two SWITCHED QB’s ?
Tell me all about it, drummer boy? Defend that nonsense again for me.
Too funny. Please though. Tell me more about how the Rams are going to be their SURPRISE team in 2009 and how the 49ers will barely win three!
Tell me son, tell me! Tell me all about it!
What a joke (which is probably why I can’t stop laughing).
Instead of giving me another of your ludicrous insults, tell me, drummer, all about your favorite cult, the cult of FO.
Go ahead. I’m waiting (of course, you’re not man enough to do that). Instead, it’ll be another nonsensical comment from you.
And yes, my ‘Football Knowledge’ is not only superior to yours, but they’re not in the same solar system.
Again though, defend your boys at FO!
In about 24 hours
The Rams will be 0-4 and the 49ers will be 3-1.
Please, drummer, remind of what FO had to say before the season started. You know, about the Rams being their ‘Surprise Team’ in ‘09 and about the 49ers being just slightly better than Detroit (and expected to win about, say, three games in’09).
Refresh my memory son. Please.
I mean, you DO worship at the alter of the ‘Cult of FO,’ don’t you?
Tell me all about it, drummer. Please?
Bwah!!
This meltdown is not only “Superior” in GeoMak’s latest decent into lunacy and delusion, but it really illustrates his porpose here at Niners Nation.
Geo, find an in depth article about FO from me. Go ask Danny how I didn’t endorse FO in a Raye thread.
Here is a real kicker for you: refute Danny. He is the resident FO expert here.
The difference between you, Fooch, and Danny is that I learn something from them.
You? Bwah!! You are very ignorant on football, and downright stupid about the 49ers.
You know, you disappeared after that infamous FO thread. Why was that?
Refresh our memory of you and Joe Montana reminding us how you both are superior in “Knowledge” because you quote him from an article. You must be drunk form that bottle of wine Joe sent you, since you are so close.
BTW, Danny has an ongoing FO thingy each week. Why don’t you dare venture into questioning Danny? Why?
Because you can’t do it. Because FO wasn’t covered in Phil Simm’s book, thus making your “Superior Football Knowledge” less one chapter that wasn’t covered.
Dude, you are one crazy cat. I’m glad you are still able to post here. I can iKick you around like a used tire. Your brilliance is that you don’t care how ignorant you look. Your existence here isn’t educational.
You’re the proverbial punching bag. The gift that keeps on giving. Thank you for being that.
Stupidity has it rewards. Congrats. Here is your biscuit.
=)
Well, we're waiting....
If
The 49ers play up to their capacity then this shouldn’t even be a game. St. Louis cannot compare man for man in terms of talent, this will be a barometer on how good the 49ers really are. Good teams destroy bad teams, look at what the Ravens did to the Brown and what the Giants did to the Bucs.
I do think that both Donnie Avery and Kennon Burton are good young receivers but the Niners corners shut down TJ and Fitz. They shouldn’t have much of an issue with these two especially considering Avery isn’t a 100 percent and Boller is the QB. Boller just isn’t that good, the worse QB we have faced to date. The Rams offensive line is just plain horrible, absolutely horrible. Incognito and Goldberg on the right side are about as worse of a duo that you can start in the NFL. The 49ers should have a field day rushing Boller, although he is much more mobile then Bulger. The offensive line play will probably counteract anything the talented Jackson could do in the running game, considering the Niners defense held Peterson in check i really don’t see the Rams doing anything on the ground. Franklin, Smith and McDonald are playing real good ball up front and that should open up avenues for Willis in the running game and both Haralson and Lawson, the latter is really impressive early on.
Playoffs? Playoffs? Playoffs? Your Talking about Playoffs? Yes Sir I am!!!!!!!!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 3, 2009 6:33 PM PDT reply actions
Any Given Sunday
That was a good frikin movie…
Although anything can happen on Sunday, If you look at the one-on-one matchups, The Rams are facing some real heavy artillery (loaded with anomosity) on both sides of the ball this week….
I don’t think if they (The Rams) had “Cap Rooney” or “Steamin Willie Beamen” throwing the ball to Jimmy Sanderson or Terrell Owens (yes he made a cameo) would have a shot UNLESS …Al Pacino (Tony D’ Amato) was in the locker room at Halftime to gave his “inch by inch” speech. It would take more than just a Luther “Shark” Lavay on defense to stop the flow of a particular brand of Coffee thats name happens to be Glen… The best we will see this week in the episode of “Niners Journey to the Playoffs” is LL Cool J playing Steven Jackson…or maybe its the other way around?…either way, thats all they have going for them, if anything at all.
This may be a “take out our aggressions” type of game this week. There is alot of adrenaline flowing I think this week for the Niners… Particularly the defense…. So I will say one more thing in aspiration of a beautiful day tomorrow… WELCOME TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE LAMBS!! ….Whoops Rams. No offense! Thats Oh-fen-se (phonetically) no the oth…well yeah maybe the other too. Good luck
+1 Nice
“Any Given Sunday” drop +1 again. That was a joke. Hey AA is even better, or i have been told. But yes Goldson, Lawson and McDonal have looked great.
If the 49ers don’t win by 14 it means that they have degressed. Good team kill bad teams
Playoffs? Playoffs? Playoffs? Your Talking about Playoffs? Yes Sir I am!!!!!!!!!!!
by nocal81(Vincent) on Oct 4, 2009 12:42 AM PDT reply actions
Thats not always the case…. “Good teams kill bad teams” The Colts only beat the Jags by 2 memeber? Final score was 14-12..Its usually the case though. If the Niners beat them 17-10 I will still be happy.
I just hope that after last week, and the first week, that we all can enjoy a blowout. Would love to see us win by 3 TD’s
I'd be more worried if Nolan were the HC
Big picture, I don’t care about winning margin. I want our guys to win, play well in doing so and stay healthy. Winning big would mean some key players can rest in the 4th so some backups (hello Alex Smith) can receive some playing time.
Our style of offense is not one to jump out 14-0 in six minutes. But I’ll be just as happy if we control the game and are up 14-0 midway through the 2nd quarter. Seeing Coffee with running room, Hill find his WRs and us continue to not turn the ball over would make for a successful Sunday.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
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