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49ers-Colts: Five questions with BigBlueShoe

This Sunday will see the 49ers square off in what I believe is their toughest match-up of the season.  The Colts have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, which is sure to give us an even better idea of where the 49ers really are as a team.  As we approach the game, we've had some great discussion in the Q&A FanPost.  However, as is often the case, I wanted to ask five more directed questions of BigBlueShoe from Stampede Blue.  He was kind enough to take a few minutes to answer some of my questions.

NN: Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark continue to impress.  However, younger receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have started to impress.  Can you tell us a little more about the two youngsters?

SB: Sure. Pierre Garcon is a second year player who, as some know, played Division III college ball at Mount Union. He went there because he lacked the grades, and the pedigree, to go to the bigger college schools. Regardless, he dominated Div III football so much that the Colts used a 6th round pick on him in 2008. At roughly 6'1, 210 pounds, he is a big dude playing WR. He also has Marvin Harrison-like speed, as Peyton Manning described during Training Camp. Garcon likes getting physical after catching the ball, stiff-arming players and bowling over people rather than using his speed to shake them out of their shoes (like Marvin used to do). Pierre is also a little cocky. He's been flagged a bit too much for taunting, which is something Colts fans absolutely detest.

Austin Collie is pretty much a clone of Brandon Stokley. Stokley is, arguably, the best slot receiver ever to play football, and his best years were with the Colts. Collie is running the same patterns and doing the same things out of the slot that Stokley did. He's a very smart kid who does not play like a rookie. Very cerebral player who understands running in space and positioning himself on a route to make a big catch. It's been fun watching these young players grow and develop throughout the season. This area used to be a problem area for the Colts. In the past, it was Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokley, and then... not much of anything. Now, with Pierre, Reggie, Austin, Anthony Gonzalez (who will return from injury soon), and the recently signed Hank Baskett, the Colts might have the deepest WR corps in football.

After the jump we run through four more questions about the Indianapolis Colts...

Star-divide

NN: Donald Brown seems to be making a bigger impact in the rushing attack than Joseph Addai.  Is he on his way to becoming the #1 guy, or is it likely to stick as a 2-person running back by committee?

SB: Looks are deceiving, and no. He isn't going to replace Addai. Donald Brown is an electric back with some serious speed. We haven't seen breakaway running like Brown's since the days of Marshall Faulk. As wonderful and awesome as Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes were, they never had great breakaway speed. Brown has that.

What Brown doesn't have is durability, nor does he have that sense to "feel" his way through traffic. Edge, Rhodes, and Addai are masters of that. This season, with an offensive line that has been very spotty in terms of run blocking, Addai has had to fight for more yards. He's done all the tough running. Addai ahs also been outstanding in pass block blitz pick-up and cathcing the ball out of the backfield. Brown still isn't there in those things yet.

What I do see is that the two work very well as a tandem, which is why Brown was drafted. We say this a lot at Stampede Blue, because the numbers and the stats seem to back it up: The days of the 25-30 carry a game running back are over. Emmitt smith wouldn't last 16 games in today's NFL. Safeties are too big, too fast, and hit to hard for one back to carry an offense's load anymore. Teams absolutely must have two quality backs who split carries. Otherwise, one of the backs will wear down (example: Michael Turner with the Falcons).

NN: Peyton Manning just keeps on kicking year after year.  Aside from a lack of mobility, is there really anything the 49ers can look to in trying to stop Manning?

SB: I don't understand this "lack of mobility" knock. When I think "lack of mobility," I think Bernie Kosar, Dan Marino, and Drew Bledsoe. Peyton isn't like that guys at all. He runs pretty well, and throws on the run much better thna he did five or six years ago. He's also nimble in thep ocket, able to slide away from pressure while still looking downfield. Manning, in many ways, kind of moves like Joe Montana did in the pocket. So, if Manning "lacks mobility," Montana must have as well.

As far as "stopping Manning," you can't. No defense can stop him. Defenses can, however, throw off the timing of the offense by getting consistent pressure up the middle. Outside pressure can be controlled because, again, Manning can move well in the pocket. If you get pressure up the middle, no quarterback can survive.

NN: According to Football Outsiders, you guys have the 23rd ranked rushing defense and 5th ranked passing defense.  Everyone knows about Dwight Freeney, so can you tell us about some of the more under-appreciated aspects of the Colts defense?

SB: FO's numbers really don't do the rush defense justice. The Colts run defense is very good, and the 23rd rank is skewed by that Miami Dolphins game, which was a fluke. As we saw this past weekend with the Saints, the Dolphins "Wild Cat" racks up a ton of rushing yards. The problem is that in today's NFL you MUST be able to throw the ball to win. Running the ball is now secondary to throwing it. A team like the Dolphins can rack up all the rushing yards they want. The reason they are 2-4 is because their passing game, and their pass defense, stink. 

In four games this year, the Colts have held opponents under 100 yards rushing. In three of those games, they held them under 70 yards rushing. Take away that fluke Miami game, and the Colts have a top ten run defense. In almost all their games this year, the Colts have been able to stop the run early, build a big lead, and then tee-off on the opponents' QB. This past Sunday, the Colts stoned the Rams rushing game in the first half. They came out of halftime with a 21-3 lead. Knowing the Rams were down three scores, Indy ran a vanilla Tampa-2 in the second half, preventing the rams from throwing long and making any big plays. The Rams responded to this by running the ball.

Again, down three scores, and the Rams... run? They racked up 80% of their 155 rushing yards in the third quarter. The result was an additional 3 points, and the Colts continuing to pad their lead.

So, I personally think the run defense for this team is under-appreciated. 

NN: Both are teams have new head coaches (new enough in the case of the 49ers).  What are Jim Caldwell's strengths and weaknesses as head coach?

SB: Well, for Caldwell right now it is difficult to say. The team is 6-0. So, it's hard to point out any coaching "weaknesses." I guess NFL  inexperience as an NFL head coach is probably his biggest "weakness," but I must say I am very impressed with how Caldwell has conducted himself. He does seem to get it. Also, many of his bigger decisions have turned out to be brilliant judgements. He benched starting left tackle Tony Ugoh for a utility player named Charlie Johnson. The results are Peyton Manning only being sacked twice in six games.

Caldwell also, essentially, fired former-defensive coordinator Ron Meeks and special teams coach Russ Purnell. He replaced them with Larry Coyer as the DC and Ray Rychleski on special teams, and both coaches have helped improve both those areas. The defense is giving up only 12.8 points per game, and special teams play is vastly improved.

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You can’t. ;)

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by BigBlueShoe on Oct 30, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awww

You didn’t have to tell it like it is.

by Deelron on Oct 30, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any given Sunday

I wouldn’t completely rule out the 49ers chances of winning. Obviously they’re underdogs, but did anyone really think the Raiders would beat the Eagles the game before last? And Indy hasn’t looked unbeatable. Both Jacksonville and Miami came close to pulling off the upset. I’m not saying I think the 49ers will win. I’m only saying I wouldn’t completely rule it out. BTW, can anyone tell me which rookie WR playing in this game led the NCAA in receptions last year? Surprisingly it’s not Crabtree. It’s Austin Collie. He was a steel for Indy in the 4th round.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Oct 30, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

As I stated in another post, it’s not like we’re the Rams or Browns. We have talent. We’ll have to play our best, no doubt. But it wouldn’t be “shock the world!” Just a big upset. And a pronouncement that Alex Smith (and perhaps Crabtree) have arrived and can be the difference makers. It would also place some focus on the fact that Indy has only defeated one good QB this season (Warner), and only played two good offenses total (AZ and Miami). Perhaps that’s one reason their defensive rankings are so high. I know if we had their schedule and defensive rankings vs the pass, people here on NN and throughout the media would be harping on that.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Oct 30, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Arizona

turned the ball over three times in scoring position or I suspect the score would have been much closer than it was. 3 turnovers in scoring position kills points and momentum. If the Niners can create some turnovers and score 7’s on those turnovers, they could very well give the Colts a fight for the W.

The next 6 games for the Colts are not going to be as easy as the first 6

1st 6
Jags
Dolphins
Cards
Seattle
Titans
Rams

Next 6
SF
Texans
Pats
Ravens
Texans
Titans

Last 4
Broncos
Jags
Jets
Bills

I think it’s safe to say that the first 6 games were the lighter portion of the Colts schedule

by Drew K on Oct 30, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We can try....

And one thing that bothers me about one of the question is that you CAN stop Manning, the Chargers have on a regular basis, the younger Patriots defenses in the early to mid 2000’s have, so it is not impossible

by sanfranfanmdk on Oct 30, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chargers recently haven't really stopped Peyton most of the time

his numbers have been pretty good most of the time. It’s that they can limit the possessions and score a good amount on O and keep the Colts O reasonably contained on D.

Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.

by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure about Manning's

actual running ability (he has run only once this year), but BBS is spot-on with Peyton’s pocket mobility. There are so many throws Peyton does where he takes 2 steps up in the pocket and let’s it go. You’d be surprised how many rushers he evades by doing that.

Peyton also knows his own limits with his mobility. He knows when it’s just time to go down and eat the ball rather than try to run with it and get creamed or get intercepted with a horrible throw.

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This video right here has produced one of my favorite lines ever. It was so awesome that there has been 2 sequels. One where you must put a banana in your ear, and another where you must grab their tongues. Purely awesome.

by Cassieper on Oct 30, 2009 10:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A couple of things that come to mind when reading the above

First, I agree that it’s incorrect to describe Peyton Manning as an immobile quarterback. He’s not Steve Young or Michael Vick, but he is very adept at avoiding the rush in the pocket. Just to note, BBS, Marino was extremely proficient at this as well, so I wouldn’t think of him as an “immobile” QB, either.

I have to say that I’m not sure about Indy’s run D. I understand you are just using the Rams game as an example to show how the stats are inflated against the run D, but I wish you had used another game as an example as to why you thought it was so underrated in general. The Rams are just so terrible, it’s hard to see using a game against them as an example for anything.

Looking at the box scores, the YPC allowed has to be considered a weakness, but when you look at it in the context that most teams either have to abandon the run or, in the Rams case, should have abandoned the run, it hasn’t mattered to this point. MJD did damage against the Colts as he always does, but the Jags lack of a passing game lost that one. The Dolphins did a great job as they do against almost everyone, but Manning+Miami’s pass D=trouble in South Beach.

If Gore runs well (unlikely considering the run-blocking ability of the O-line) it will be curious to see whether or not (the new and improved!) Alex Smith can keep the Niners in it. I’m not holding my breath, though.

Don't worry about me Thurgood, I'll be fine. The robbery is what's important now.

by the guy on Oct 30, 2009 11:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Heres an example for you

Now i know how bad the Titans are stinking it up right now, but despite that they STILL have a decent run game. They are ranked 6th in the league in rush yards. Chris Johnson is a hell of RB and even though they suck he’s a bright spot. He’s a top back in this league. The Colts defense held him to 34 yards in that game. LenDale White had 51 yards. So in total the Colts defense held the Titans to 85 yards rushing. That’s pretty damn good IMO.

Bob Sanders does not play Hide-and-Seek, He plays HIDE and PRAY-HE-DOES-NOT FIND-YOU!

by coltsfan723 on Oct 30, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but in that case

LenDale ran the ball 10 times and Johnson only ran it 9. That offense is really clicking when those two carry the ball 30-40 times between the two of them. Because of how terrible the rest of the team is, they had to abandon the run early. The Titans don’t throw the ball 30+ times if they can help it. Johnson is dope, but he’s one of those guys who needs a bunch of carries so he can break one or two long ones. If he doesn’t get at least 15 touches, those chances for a game-changer go down significantly.

LenDale White was actually pretty effective in terms of YPC in the limited carries he saw. Ultimately, it comes back to my point in my original post, which is that the Colts are allowing an above-average amount of YPC to opposing backs, but because of the quality of their offense and the deficiencies of opposing teams they’ve faced, it hasn’t hurt them yet.

I’m only musing on this so much because when you look at how good this Colts team is, you have to wonder “How can you beat them?” And to do that I think the best way is to look at the games they almost lost to this point, specifically Jacksonville and Miami. In those games they were gashed by the RB, but were able to win because of David Garrard’s inaccuracy and Miami’s terrible pass D.

I suppose my main point is that evidence suggests that if a team plays a complete game (strong D, strong QB and RB play) you can beat the Colts. They might not run into a team that plays them like that until Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but it can be done. I think. Manning’s always good for a few wins where they shouldn’t be.

Don't worry about me Thurgood, I'll be fine. The robbery is what's important now.

by the guy on Oct 31, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Stokley is, arguably, the best slot receiver ever to play football, and his best years were with the Colts."

No…just no. too much homerism in too many of those answers (coming from the guy who thinks that Manning might be the greatest field general to ever play the game).

by foosball4949 on Oct 30, 2009 12:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Make a suggestion for a better one then.

You’re not being constructive by just accusing BBS of homerism. Let’s hear it. Who’s better and why?

Now a proud annoyance on Stampede Blue, 18to88, Indy Football Report, and Phil B's blog.

Man, I need a life...

Random fact of the week from the empty void that is my mind: This video right here has produced one of my favorite lines ever. It was so awesome that there has been 2 sequels. One where you must put a banana in your ear, and another where you must grab their tongues. Purely awesome.

by Cassieper on Oct 30, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wes Welker

(Here’s my Tech homerism coming out)

by Thundarr on Oct 30, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually agree about the Peyton Manning quote

I can’t think of any QB on any team (including Montana and Young) who had a better grasp of the overall game.

by smileyman on Oct 30, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would still take Montana

But that’s an argument that can’t go anywhere. Certainly not a slam at Manning, just all compliment of Montana.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Oct 30, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could easily throw Hines Ward’s name into that discussion as well.

by Chimneyfish on Oct 30, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

slot WR?

Ward is a starter, I don’t know if they play him inside in 3WR sets, but I wouldn’t call him a slot WR. I would call him a better WR than Stokley, I just wouldn’t put him in that slot category.

Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.

by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2009 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I respectfully disagree

Wes Welker is much better than stokely

by Thundarr on Oct 30, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

BigBlueShoe, I agree with you entirely on the importance of the passing game and ability to stop the pass when it comes to winning in the NFL. You’re right that there’s probably too much emphasis placed on rushing stats at times.

However, while I agree with your argument on the significance of the rush defense list, I don’t understand your argument regarding the Colts proper spot on that list. How specifically was the Miami game a “fluke”? It seems like you’re saying that the Colts gave up a lot of rushing yards simply because the Dolphins made a lot of rushing attempts- not due to a weak run defense. Certainly attempts do not automatically turn into yards. Top ten rush defenses don’t give up a lot of yards regardless of how many running attempts are made. So I’m not sure that there’s a case for throwing the Miami game out of the stats just because they’re a run-focused offense.

In fact, the 49ers have had more rushing attempts made against its defense this year than the Colts have. But the Niners have given up 140 less rushing yards- including holding AP and the Vikings to under 100 (and that was back before Favre was passing the ball fifty times a game like he is now).

With that all said, I’m really looking forward to this game. The Colts obviously have a great offense and I love to watch them. Manning has an impressive 8.6 yards per pass attempt this year. However, I can find some optimism in the fact that all of those pretty offensive stats have come without playing a single team with a winning record all season. The 49ers will be the most difficult opposition they’ve faced all year- and the last time they played a team kind of similar to the Niners (a run-focused offense with a solid defensive line), they won by only four points.

I’ve got hope in the fact that, in the last half of football the 49ers played, they made over 200 passing yards.

by Chimneyfish on Oct 30, 2009 5:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

your point is valid on the rush attempts but that isn't the reason we would argue "throwing out the miami numbers"

the reason is is that they are unconventional in that they rush in the wildcat which really no other team does. yes every team that faces them deals with it. this said we had never faced it before and so didn’t have a defensive scheme it seemed that would work. our linbackers could not fill the gaps and lineman missed asssighnments. basically it is the wildcat that we would say is the reason for the diffrence. before last week when we stopped defending the run on steven jackson. we had basically had allowed as many rush yards against miami
as we had against every other we had played. so basically our reason is the Wild Cat

GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!

by ANGELSFAITH on Oct 30, 2009 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs


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