Mining Your Way to Fantasy Gold - Kiss the Rings Edition (Week 10)

It's game day, and I'm taking a different approach to my regular fantasy article this week.  Aside from the fact I did horribly last week in recommending my sit/start suggestions (although if you benched Colston you're welcome), no one really chirped me about it so I figure I don't have to remind anyone about it (in detail at least).  I'm going to take a deeper look into the San Francisco 49ers fantasy impact for this game against the Chicago Bears, as well as having my regular sit/start forecasts (on Saturday).  This time I'll try to be accurate, so let's see how our boys stack up against Da Bears.

Frank Gore - Bears Rush Defense: 21st in the NFL, 119.5 rypg (171.3 last 3 games, 182 last week vs. Arizona).  It should also be noted that the Bears Run D has allowed 0.9 TDs per game, and averages 115.5 rush yards allowed while on the Road.  This is a favourable match-up for Gore, as our stud RB has had a TD in each of his past two games with 292 total yards (174 rushing).  Last week against the Titans, Gore had a solid game gaining his yards in steady chunks (his longest run was 13 yards) instead of a huge chunk coming on one big run (like in weeks' past).  He also added 7 reception for 75 yards and seems to have put his ankle injury behind him.  Forecast vs. Chicago: 100 rush yards, 1 TD; 5 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TD (5 Rings Baby!)

Fiverings_medium

After the jump, see how many rings Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Alex Smith and the San Francisco Team DEF...

Vernon Davis - Chicago Pass Defense: 12th in the NFL, 206.5 (187.7 last 3, 256 last week vs. Arizona).  Chicago allows an average of 202.8 pypg on the road, and 2 TDs per game to opponents (2.2 on the road).  On paper, it looks like a pretty solid match-up for VD tonight, but the Bears have been pretty good at limiting TE yardage production.  Chicago has only allowed two TEs to top the 50-yard mark (Will Heller - DET, Tony Gonzalez - ATL).  Where the Bears have struggled is defending TEs in the red zone, yeilding 6 TDs to TEs on the season, including 2 last week against the Cardinals.  Davis had 10 catches for 102 yards last week against the Titans, but was held out of the end zone; on the season he's tied for the NFL lead with 7 TDs.  I think he'll do just fine tonight, seeing as the Bears Defense is 31st in the league in Red Zone defense, allowing opponents to score 74.1% of the time.  Forecast vs. Chicago: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD (4 Rings)

Fourrings_medium 

Michael Crabtree - You saw the Chicago pass defense ratings already, so you know Crabtree stands a chance at catching a TD and getting a decent amount of yards.  The 10th overall draft pick really let me down against the Titans, so I'm going to temper my expectations for tonight.  I don't expect Jason Hill to put up 2 TDs a game, or the team to ignore Crabtree in the end zone.  The Bears have allowed 5 WRs to have 100-yard games against on the season; all five of those performances came from the oppositions #1 WR.  While I don't think Crabtree will score, I do think he has a chance to do some damage and get some decent receiving totals.  Forecast vs. Chicago: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 0 TDs (3 Rings)

Threerings_medium

Alex Smith - Chicago is ranked 19th in the league, allowing QBs to complete 62.4% of their passes against the secondary (Warner completed 68.8% last week).  The Bears are also ranked 18th in the league with a sack percentage of 6.1%, while sacking the QB just 16 times total.  Another promising stat?  The Bears have allowed teams to complete 42.2% of third down opportunities, good news for a team that struggles with 3-and-outs.  Chicago has intercepted opposing QBs 8 times on the year, so it actually looks like Alex Smith stands a chance.  However, the Bears have yet to allow a 300-yard passer, so don't look for #11 to light up the Fantasy Scoreboard indefinitely.  Forecast vs. Chicago:  220 Pass Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yards, 0 FL, 3 times sacked (3 Rings)

Threerings_medium

San Francisco Team DEF - Chicago Total Offense:  22.5 PPG, 332.4 Total Yards Per Game (90.4 rypg, 242 pypg), 46.4% Red Zone Scoring, 39.6% Third Down Conversions.  Chicago's offense certainly isn't the scariest the 49ers have faced this season, but the team did allow 34 points to the Titans (after allowing just 18 to the Colts?).  San Francisco has been allowing an average of 21.8 PPG (tied for 17th) on the season.  The 49ers have a solid red zone defense, ranked 9th with opponent's successful just 47.8% of the time.  Unfortunately, the 49ers struggle on Third Downs, allowing opponents to convert 40.2% of the time (ranked 23rd).  San Francisco's pass defense is struggling with just a 5.6% sack rate, while allowing 241 pypg (and an opponent completion rate of 60.8%).  This isn't a very favourable match-up (well for the Bears it is), and things could go either way.  I'd leave the 49ers defense on the bench, as I expect this game to be an offensive co-ordinator's delight.  Forecast vs. Chicago: 20 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 INT, 0 FR, 0 TD, 0 BLK Kicks (2 Rings)

Tworings_medium

The Rest of the Squad

Despite his 2-TD performance against the Titans, I'm against people running out and grabbing Jason Hill off the waiver wire.  It's nice to see him produce and get playing time, but let's stay off the bandwagon for the time being.  If his performance continues this week, I say go ahead and snipe him off waivers in the deep leagues.  I would then say go ahead and question why he's been stuffed on the bench up until now.  If you're in a league with IDP (Individual Defensive Players), I think you may want to look at adding Tarell Brown and giving him a go against Cutler.  The Bears QB has thrown 10 of his 12 INTs on the road, and while I don't see the 49ers picking him off a bunch, I see Brown getting the lone INT tonight.  And for the record, 49ers 23, Bears 20.

Note: All Team Based-Stats are courtesy of TeamRankings.  All other stats provided by Yahoo!

Special Note:  This post was brought to you by the fine people at S-Mart.  Shop Smat, Shop S-mart.  Right now if you buy one chainsaw, you'll receive a boomstick at half-price and a free necronomicon decoder. 

Shop-s-mart_medium

Fooch, I hope you don't mind me taking sponsorship without your permission.  Hail to the Rings, baby.


X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Join Niners Nation

You must be a member of Niners Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Niners Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker