Mining your way to fantasy gold - Week 10 Edition

Frank Gore did pretty much what I forecasted him to do in Kiss the Rings, but Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith all laid eggs.  The Team DEF really stepped it up, registering 5 INTs, and I'll admit this now:  I low balled the forecast to avoid hexing the unit.  Call me superstitious, but it paid off.  I won't get into how brutally ugly the game was, as I'm sure the conversation will be focused on that for the next little while.  Apologies to GeoMak, as I'm no ex-coach, ex-scout, ex-player or ex-wife, but I've got forecasting to do.  I'm unveiling cute little mining axes to give each player a rating out of five.  Yeah, I'm going for cheap thrills and cheaper JPEGs (I suppose not, my images did load so I removed them), and if you tell anyone I used the word "cute" I'll take a mining axe to your toe.  This week's edition features some sure fire forecasts, or your money back. 

Sleepers

Todd Heap TE BAL @ CLE - If you're still scrambling to find that Owen Daniels replacement, and are starting with a rotating wheel-o-TEs, this week I recommend putting Heap into the lineup on Monday Night versus the Browns.  Cleveland at home allows an average of 4 red zone opportunities per game to their opponents, and 2.8 red zone scores.  While Cleveland has the sixth ranked red zone defense, Baltimore is scoring at 63.6% clip inside the red zone while on the road.  Heap is a big target, and should put up good numbers against a pretty terrible Browns team.  The Baltimore TE isn't what he used to be, but I expect him to nearly double his season averages in catches and yards (3, 38).  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  5 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD

KC Team DEF @ OAK - The Oakland Raiders benefit from the return of Darren McFadden to the lineup.  Pardon me if I don't think that changes much to a pretty poor 2009.  At home, the Raiders have an incredibly bad 16.7% red zone scoring percentage, and averaged 9 (yes, NINE) points per game in front of the fans in the black hole.  The team also averages 3 turnovers per game while at home, 2 via interception, 1 via fumble lost.  To make matters worse, Oakland let's the opposition sack the QB at a 10.6% rate, second worst to only the Packers.  I'm not going to say the Chiefs are loaded with playmakers and a defense that can bully the Raiders.  I'm saying Fooch and a group of 10th graders could bully the Raiders.  It's not often the 30th ranked defense gets a highly recommended rating, but what the heck.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  10 points allowed; 3 sacks, 2 INTs

 After the jump, I'll look at the QBs, WRs and RBs you should be sitting and starting...

QB to Start

Matt Hasselbeck SEA @ ARI - The Seahawks have the 13th ranked pass offense in the league, and fairs pretty well away from the 12th man in Seattle.  The team completes 64% of their passes on the road, while averaging 1.3 PaTDs.  The Cardinals aren't anything spectacular defending the aerial assualt in Arizona, allowing opponents to complete 64.1% of their passes.  The secondary is also allowing 254.2 passing ypg, and 2 PaTD per game while in the University of Phoenix Stadium.  I'm confident that Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck can help ease your pain if you've got Matt Schaub or Eli Manning on a bye this week.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  275 Pass Yards, 2 PaTD, 1 INT

QB to Sit

Donovan McNabb PHI @ SD - The Eagles struggle on the road passing the ball, and that's a big reason why you see McNabb appear as the QB to sit this week.  Philadelphia averages just 146 pass ypg, and 1 PaTD while away from the city of brotherly love (while completing just 54.5% of their passes).  The San Diego Chargers have the 5th ranked pass defense in the NFL, and the 4th ranked pass defense at home.  They also allow just 1 PaTD per game while at home, so you can see why I'm recommending a McNabb benching.  I realize stats aren't always the best way to determine how well teams will perform, but in this case I just can't pass up the opportunity to recommend a McNabb sit down.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  190 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT

WR to Start

Chad Ochocinco CIN @ PIT - While the Bengals face a tough match-up this weekend in Pittsburgh, you can almost bank on Ochocinco showing up ready to play.  Cincinnati averages 2 PaTDs per game on the road, and I'd be shocked if #85 wasn't the recipient of one this Sunday.  The Steelers defense allows 1.2 PaTD/game, and 218 pass yards/game at home, so the stats are aligning in place.  The Bengals also own the league's best red zone scoring percentage, getting points in 69.2% of their trips inside the 20.  Ochocinco is a great red zone target, and while the Bengals may come up short, the flamboyant WR should play like someone stole his honey-bun.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  8 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD

WR to Sit

Brandon Marshall DEN @ WAS - If you're noticing a trend, you're right, I am focusing more on stat match-ups than gut insticts this week.  Let's just saying I'm experimenting, or one could say I'm trying to be accurate.  Denver's pass offense has a tall order this week in the Nation's Capital, as the Broncos average just 187.2 pass ypg and 1 PaTD/game while on the road.  That's bad news, considering the Washington Redskins boast the league's best passing defense.  They also allow just 129.2 pass ypg at home, and just 0.9 PaTDs per game no matter what stadium they play in.  The Redskins aren't the best team in the world, but they certainly have a defense.  It's wise to sit Marshall, yes, even in PPR leagues.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  5 catches, 60 yards, 0 TDs

RB to Start

Thomas Jones NYJ vs. JAX - Oh boy is this a favourable match-up if I ever saw one!  The Jets have the league's number 1 running attack, and average a healthy 161 rush ypg at the Meadowlands.  New York also averages 1.5 rush TD per game on the season, although the 0.8 per game at home may be discouraging.  Fear not, as the Jaguars boast the league's second worst rush defense on the road, allowing 157.5 yards per game.  Jacksonville allows just 0.6 rush TD a game, but I expect the Jets to buck that trend with Jones pounding the rock all afternoon long.  Look for Rex Ryan's team to play some serious smash mouth football on Sunday, so make sure Thomas Jones is in your lineup.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  120 rush yards, 2 TDs; 1 catch, 10 yards, 0 TDs

RB to Sit

Cedric Benson CIN @ PIT - I wasn't the biggest Benson advocate before the season began, but I'll admit he's having a Comeback Player of the Year performance to date.  The Bengals actually have a pretty good rush offense on the road, averaging 149 yards per game with 0.7 rush TDs, but they've yet to face a defense like Pittsburgh away from Paul Brown Stadium.  The Steelers are a terror against the run, and ranked first in the NFL (they allow just 70.2 rush ypg).  Pittsburgh also doesn't let many RBs find the end zone, allowing just 0.2 rush TDs per game.  It will be a battle in the trenches, and I expect the Bengals to lose the war on the ground, but find success in the air.  I can only hope the Bengals pull off the huge road upset, but I'm not banking on Benson putting up big fantasy numbers.  Week 10 fantasy forecast:  65 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 3 catches, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Note:  As usual Nation, feel free to post comments asking who to sit/start relating specifically to your fantasy roster.  If you're playing me, feel free to bench all your big names for rookies and back-ups.  I've added a poll this week just to get some additional hits, yep I'm getting desperate.  All team stats provided by TeamRankings, all others provided by Yahoo!.