One thing the Jay Cutler situation should prove to us
by renke81 on Nov 15, 2009 12:57 PM PST
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PrintI have to be honest, before this season I was not an Alex Smith supporter. I did not think he would ever mean anything to the Niners again and I saw Shaun Hill starting for the entire season (not putting up great numbers) and then we would draft a solid QB next season if Davis was someone that was always going to be a back-up.
This offseason, I was hoping, praying that the 49ers would find a QB that could ball. I wanted to see someone who could bomb the ball, who could make deep throws that would open up the running game. As much as I knew it would cost the 49ers too much, inside I was slightly hoping that they would make a play for Cutler. But, this Bears situation with him should teach us all a very important lesson. That lesson is that the QB isn't everything on the football field.
Being so sick of seeing lackluster QBing from the 49ers since Garcia left, I was desiring a solid QB desparately. So were the Bears. Orton was to the Bears as Shaun Hill was to the 49ers, someone who was a game manager, nothing fancy. They felt that if they got a good QB, everything would take care of itself, and I was even guilty of predicting the NFC North to be one of the toughest divisions (the Lions aside) in the NFL and the Bears to win the division. The problem is that the QB isn't everything. The Bears don't have an O-line (they are worse then ours) and they don't have solid receivers (they are worse then ours).
The 49ers need some time. I'm not saying I don't think they can make the playoffs, but give them another year or two. Give Alex the rest of this year and maybe even next year as well. He doesn't have a real good o-line. Cutler can make great throws, so can Alex, if they have time in the pocket. His receivers are ok, but not the greatest yet. I think this is one reason that he has looked so bad at times. Cutler was so good the past few years with the Broncos, but put him on a different team and he is terrible. QB's like Joe Flacco should be so happy with their situation. The Ravens had a whole team except a QB and last year they proved it. I really believe that Alex Smith can be a great QB, if the rest of the team builds around him. Keep the coaching staff (we NEED stability at the OC), keep building our O-line in the draft and I really think he's gonna be ok. We all desparately want to see winning now (I do more than most), but I think this is a situation where no matter what happens this season, we can't call for anyone's head. This year was a great learning year (whether we make the playoffs or not) now lets keep building and get out there and dominate next season. Let's draft an O-lineman in the first round and bring some more stability there and then see how Alex plays.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Oh boy
Give Alex the rest of this year and maybe even next year as well.
You have so much faith in Alex Smith that you’re willing to commit to him for a full season after this one? No what matter record he piles up because its not his fault when he throws interceptions, holds onto the ball too long, can’t gain a yard on a QB sneak, the team loses?
Shaun and Alex ~ A Commitment to Mediocrity
would you put all the blame on Cutler for not gaining yards on QB sneaks or for all of those picks?
I think we should give him time to develop under a particular system. I don’t know if he is the answer. Haven’t seen proof yet, but every source seems to make me think that if he has some time in a particular system (which he hasn’t had for two consecutive seasons since being in the NFL), then he can be successful. I’m just saying we shouldn’t jump ship until we know that he is the reason we suck, rather than it being other parts of the team’s fault and him taking the blame for it.
Objective-fair criticism please!
When you blame the QB sneak failure on the QB, even though you could see the OL got no push at all, it makes it hard to believe that you are being objective in any of your criticisms.
All very good points
They were noting on NFL Total Access last night that the Bears quite possibly have the worst WR group on the league. Not sure about their O-Line personally but they could be as you say worse than ours.
Also look at Orton now that he as two good WRs for him.
On our side we’ve turned the point with VD finally and Crabtree does look pretty good. IF we can get some RT help (I stand by the fact that Staley is good at LT unless something out of this world happens) and a bit more help at guard , then I think that will help immensely. In fact if we can handle that in FA then that opens us up to other needs like S, CB, and NT and maybe even picking up some late round receiver. (If one is available)
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Nov 15, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions
We don't have a need at NT
We have a need at OLB, both safeties, and we only need depth at corner. We do need depth there and if Sopoaga will follow Franklin we need DE help opposite Smith. We could be more than halfway where we need to be if not for the crabtree pick, and since it’s over and can’t be changed we may have to trade our two 1st rounders to pick 4 times in the 2nd and late in the 1st like the Patriots do!
"Optimist Prime"
I'll say it over and over Crabtree was not the pick we NEEDED, at least until he scores with 100yds receiving.
Picking 4 times in the second
I don’t know that I trust our personnel department to get the same value from those picks as the Patriots do.
Of course its difficult, its a shortcut... if it was easy it'd just be "the way."
The Patriots probably have fewer
draft picks on their roster from the last 5 seasons than do most teams.
Dunno?
I know they play less of their draft picks than any team, they let them sit and develope in the scheme and wth technique!
"Optimist Prime"
I'll say it over and over Crabtree was not the pick we NEEDED, at least until he scores with 100yds receiving.
We do have an NT, not long ago at all I would have agreed with you
We have a very good NT actually and it’s looking more from what I’m hearing we’re going to keep work something out to keep him.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Nov 20, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
Really? Cutler’s performance on Thursday convinced you that the role of the QB in creating wins is overrated? To me, it reinforced that the opposite is true.
Cutler played really, really horribly. I think it should be clear that it was because of Cutler’s hideous performance that the Niners were able to win. Here are the facts:
Cutler was playing very poorly all game and completed only 55% of his passes. It wasn’t just a matter of some unlucky interceptions. Secondly, the 49er’s offense was not playing any better, and was not the key to winning this game. The Niners achieved 134 less offensive yards than the Bears, only a third of the passing yards that the Bears created, and 1.3 less yards per passing attempt. The fact that there were four turnovers (the fifth having no effect on the Niners offense) and that the 49er’s offense still only won by a mere four points is evidence of that. Finally, the 49ers secondary did not suddenly become spectacular- especially not with a key position injury. All those interceptions on Thursday were Cutler’s stat. Quality QBs lacking strong receiving corps don’t create a lot of INT numbers- they create a lot of sack numbers.
I’ve been arguing all season that Cutler is not a quality QB, and that Denver clearly “won” on the trade last offseason. And since we’re on the subject- look at the Bronco’s game on Sunday. Orton came out the gate playing outstanding, and then gets injured and ends up not playing for the majority of the game. The result is Denver losing to the fuckin’ Redskins. This is more evidence disproving your stance that a QB isn’t essential to the win. If you’d like to argue that point further, I’d ask you to name a team in the NFL with a winning record and a bad quarterback (Let’s get honest- Tony Romo is not a bad QB. If you don’t believe me then take a look at the NFL’s career yards/pass attempt rankings). And I don’t see any factual basis on which you declare Cutler a “so good” quarterback for Denver during the ‘07 and ’08 seasons. He hasn’t topped a passer rating of 90 during any year of his NFL career. Based on your standard of QB judgement, Shaun Hill performed even better for the 49er’s in 2007 than an NFL QB who was “so good” that year (101.3 passer rating vs. 88.1). Would that make Shaun Hill so so good? Sure sounds like a flawed standard of judgement to me.
My argument is not that a QB is not essential to the win of a game!
I think this is obvious. A QB, just like any other part of the personnel can be the reason for losses, just like the Orton situation that you referenced above. I believe that a QB can lose a game. I believe that they can win them. What I really want to focus on in my argument however is that we should see that a QB alone can’t resurrect a franchise. When the Bears wanted Cutler, they didn’t have the other pieces. As a 49er fan, I want to make sure that my team has all the other pieces to success if we are going to ditch this plan and spend more draft picks or more time in our QB situation.
I do agree that Cutler throws a terrible pass a couple times per game. I’m not saying he’s throwing with 100 percent accuracy or that all of the ints aren’t his fault. I believed Cutler was a good QB because of the number of touchdowns and number of yards. The reason his QB ratings were so low was due to int’s. We all know he throws some bad passes. I don’t know. Maybe me growing up in Chicago automatically gave me a Jay Cutler hard-on because of all the radio and TV talk about him locally. My argument is only that we need to judge our team and find out if the problem isn’t other parts of our team rather than the QB position. Because it is the QB that tends to get all of the blame and all of the glory.
So I guess my question for you is, what is the predicament that our team is in? Are we a team that just needs a different person behind center to be successful or are their other parts offensively that we need to take care of first and find out if Alex can be successful in a solid offense in the NFL.
You make no sense chimneyfish
Look at the passing stats of these three QB’s from last season: Brees, Cutler & Warner.
Those three are in the top five in most catagories.
For example: Passes completed.
Brees #1 (413)
Warner #2 (401)
Cutler #3 (384)
Also those three had three of the worst rated defenses last season:
Saints: 26th
Cardinals: 28th
Broncos: 30th
Their records in 2008?
Bree/Saints: 8-8.
Cutler/Broncos: 8-8
Warner/Cards: 9-7
Jay Cutler
had the 28th and 30th ranked defense in Denver in 2007 & 2008, his two full seasons there.
The defense is Chicago hasn’t been much better.
Since the Bears started playing football in the 1920’s, they have only given up 31 first half points five times.
That’s 5 times in almost 100 years.
This season they did it twice in three weeks (against the Bengals & the Cardinals).
It’s hard for any QB to succeed whe their defense SUCKS!
I don’t really see much correlation between a team’s defensive performance and the team’s QB performance. Why would a crappy defense handicap the team’s QB? I guess you could argue if the team is always trailing due to poor D, the QB has to make more throws and challenge the other team’s defense more, but if anything that would only inflate the QB’s stats. The Saints had a bad defense last year, but Drew Brees had a historically good year.
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son
by lincecuminyourface on Nov 16, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly
And the Saints were 8-8 last season just like Denver.
What do they always say? You judge a QB by wins (and SB’s). Right?
Brees? 8-8. Cutler? 8-8.
Brees? 5069 yards. 34 TD’s. 17 INT’s. 8.0 yards per attempt. 12.3 yards per completion.
65% completion percent. 96.2 QB rating.
Cutler? 4526 yards. 25 TD’s. 18 INT’s. 7.3 yards per attempt. 11.8 yards per completion.
62.3% completion percentage. 86 QB rating.
If you look at the yearly passing leaders, Brees and Cutler are close by in almost every catagory.
For example: Passes completed:
Brees #1 (413)
Warner #2 (401)
Cutler #3 (384)
And so on. BTW.
The Saints had the # 26th ranked defense.
The Cardinals the #28th ranked defense.
The Broncos the #30th ranked defense.
The Saints were 8-8. The Broncos 8-8. The Cardinals 9-7
Three of the (statistically best QBs in 2008) – Brees, Warner & Cutler)with three of the worst defenses in the NFL in 2008 had almost identical, average, mediocre team records in 2008, despite being at the top of the leader board in passing stats.
I rest my case.
I see your point
I thought you meant it is hard for a QB to have individual success when the team has a poor D. Didn’t realize you were talking from a win-loss perspective. In that case I completely agree with you. Of course a bad defense will prevent a team and the Qb from having success
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son
by lincecuminyourface on Nov 16, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions
Passes completed is a very strange stat to judge a QB on
Since it speaks more to the playcalling than his abilities.
In fact, I suspect those three guys passed so much BECAUSE their defenses were bad. With a bad defense, you’re behind a lot, and therefore you throw a lot.
With a good defense, you’re ahead, and you run the ball more to eat clock.
Yards/Att is a much more meaningful number for a QB, and of those three QBs, only Brees makes the top three.
I honestly think pass completion percentage is a better stat for QB's
Yard/Att, while it can tell a good bit about a QB’s accuracy down the field and his ability to see the field, it also has quite a bit to do with play calling. If the coach, as in Alex’s case, calls lots of little dump off routes or short 5-7 yard come back routes, or crosses, it is tough to get tons of yards like Brees gets. Sure a QB’s talent is part of that, but play calling is very important to that stat.
Another important part of yards/att is the ability of the receivers. The 49ers don’t have burners. they don’t have a maclin or a desean jackson that can beat a CB on a sprint to the endzone. They also don’t have huge play makers at WR that can break tackles like crazy and move their way down the field. VD is becoming this, but Yards/ATT comes a good portion from a receivers ability to get yards after the catch!
Suggestion:
QB stats should be altered to exclude RAC yards. QB should only get credit for yards from LOS to point of catch. Balls caught behind the line should not be counted at all, they’re not much different from a lateral. This idea has been suggested a few times back in the Dark Ages, but never acted on.
And in many cases it depends on an equal number of factors that the quarterback is responsible for creating, identifying, and / or exploiting.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Nov 18, 2009 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
Not entirely true
If the QB consistently puts the ball where his WR can catch in stride and get more yards, is what a QB should be measured on. This is why McNabb is not in the conversation with Manning and Brady. He has the wins and the numbers but he doesn’t throw well over the middle, opting to take the safe play and sometimes not accurate enough to hit a player in stride. His passes seem to hit his WR’s feet. I credit Andy Reid to his success and so I don’t mention him in the breath with the league’s elite.
"Optimist Prime"
I'll say it over and over Crabtree was not the pick we NEEDED, at least until he scores with 100yds receiving.
but what about...
the situation where a QB sees a WR burning a guy and lobs the pass out to him. This is tough because one could argue that the QB knew the WR was gonna score on that play, he saw the opening and got him the ball. This kind of pass is different from a crossing route where the receiver broke 2 tackles to get into the endzone. I don’t know what the best thing is. All i know is that the QB should not receive all the fault or all the praise for bad or good play!
What about catch and a clean break to the endzone?
"Optimist Prime"
I'll say it over and over Crabtree was not the pick we NEEDED, at least until he scores with 100yds receiving.
But that's not fair to guys like Montana
Part of what made Montana so good was his ability to hit his receivers perfectly in stride. Sure, it helps if your receivers are Jerry Rice and John Taylor, but the QB has a large role in yards after the catch.
You may not remember, but back before the WCO took over the league, yrds/att wasn’t a popular stat. Instead, yards/completion was.
And then Montana and Young started dominating the league with low yards/comp stats but very good yards/att stats, and everybody realized that yards/comp was nowhere near as accurate a stat
I’m willing to bet that yards/att correlates with winning much more strongly than completion percentage does. Renke, you say that yards/att punishes a QB who doesn’t throw down the field, and I agree – but I think that’s a good thing! It’s a feature of the stat, not a bug, because all else being equal the QB who throws down the field is doing better than the guy who completes the same %, but throws more dump offs.
To do as well in yards/att as the guy who throws the ball down the field, the dump-off QB has to complete a very high percentage of his passes … but that’s as it should be. If you’re going to dump it off, you can’t miss very often.
Ultimately, nobody’s figured out a way to isolate the skill of the receivers and the quality of the offensive line from a QB’s performance. Even completion percentage: the QB is going to complete more passes if he has more time to throw, and with receivers who are better at getting open. Even DVOA for QBs is really judging the performance of that QB in the context of that team’s receivers and o-line.
Cutlers stats have been inflated
I have him in fantasy. INT are only worth -2 and he’s been one of the upper tier QBs in my league. Overall his WR targets are pretty bad. He has Olsen and rookie in Knox but the rest is subpar.
My focus on this debate...
was originally intended to discuss whether or not the offenses struggles are coming from only our QB, meaning should we drop Alex for another QB, or are they coming from other needs on our offense. The point in bringing up Cutler was just to show that a team thought they could turn it all around by adding a QB without adding the other necessities that an offense needs to be successful. My question then to everyone is what is the problem with our offense. Is this an Alex Smith issue or is this an issue (like the Bears) of having a descent QB that needs more help in other places?
A. Smith
Do I blame everything on Smith? NO. I feel he struggles independantly of our record. We won, but I felt like he still struggled. We lost to HOU yet Smith looked incredible. I think we are losing as a team, not due to Smith. However, he COULD help us to win by playing better.
I agree
I’ve read so much Alex Smith bashing and it kind of confuses me. If one looks at the big picture, Alex came in and was thrown into the fire right away. He’s had a new OC each year he’s been here and that’s a tough road for ANY QB to handle. The season that we had Norv Turner as our OC, Alex had a pretty darned good season. We’ve had some really bad O-lines during Alex’s tenure too. I say we give the guy a break. He’s been a complete team player since he’s been here and as bad as we’ve been STILL WANTS to be here. That speaks volumes to me. Give Alex a real chance, give him some consistency at OC and a real opportunity to prove his worth as the starting QB.
I like Alex Smith, and have defended him, but ...
I think a lot of people make unreasonable arguments against Alex Smith. They look at Ws andLs. They use his post-injury third-year stats in arguments. They ignore his youth and inexperience. They ignore how epically bad the 49ers were at other positions in his first two years, they ignore the coaching incompetency he had to deal with at others.
But -
Smith’s career doesn’t have a lot of moments that make you stand up and say, “yes! That’s what I’m looking for in my QB.” He does have a few – I consider the second half of the houston game to be one of those times, but let’s be honest, they are few and far between.
So while I think it’s fair to defend Smith, and point out how there are lots of reasons to not hold what he’s done against him, the problem is that there isn’t a ton of evidence to suggest that he CAN do it. That the primary arguments against him are weak does not create an argument for him.
And that’s part of the reason I’m neutral on the subject. I’m glad he’s getting this chance. I think we’re going to learn a lot about him over the rest of this season. But I am not anywhere close to believing he’s our long-term QB of the future. Maybe I will be at the end of the season. Maybe I’ll be convinced otherwise.
The question is, are we going to get more performances like the Houston game, or more performances like the Chicago game?
His trademark performance more resembles the Tennessee game
How come the rest of the 49ers players haven’t struggled as much under the weight of bad coaching?
They have.
Our team has been downright awful for almost all of Smith’s time here. The defense was bad. The offense, even in Smith’s second year when we were supposedly competent, was bottom-third of the league. The defense was 32nd in points scored against that year.
I sort of baffled of why you think players haven’t struggled. Before this year, the best defense on any team since Smith arrived was 20th in the league. In Smith’s second year, we were 19th in yrds/att rushing.
You think other players weren’t struggling? Look at our other top picks recently. Vernon Davis was being widely derided as a bust before this season, as was Manny Lawson. Now Manny looks like a capable (if not spectacular) NFL player and Vernon deserves to be an all-pro.
You think this has somehow been a good team that Smith has held back?
Interesting point(s)
If Sing can take VD and Manny and maybe even Alex from being pretty much considered a bust to being consider respectable that will say a lot about his coaching abilitiy.
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Nov 20, 2009 10:13 AM PST reply actions
Funny thing is...
… that can’t really be placed on Singletary, could it? Maybe as a motivator to Smith and Davis, but the only person he could actually be “teaching” anything meaningful to in terms of talent and actual knowledge would be Lawson. Even then, Lawson is a totally different player than Singletary was.
It's not about teaching ...
… so much as it’s about recognizing player’s abilities and putting them in a position to succeed.
That's..
…. the biggest failure amongst the 49ers right now. I think Singletary and/or Raye are being extremely stubborn about the 49ers offensive “identity.” I hate it when I’m agreeing with some talking big-head on TV, but it’s really how I feel.
Kinda the same way I was thinking
He’s not been hired as a position coach he’s been hired as a Head Coach that’s to be a leader of the team and that means to teach life skills not techniques so much, that’s what you have other coaches for. In fact I don’t think I even used the word teach and if the other person did my apologies I kind of “glossed over it”. He has engendered a philosophy a culture. We talk so often about a culture of losing (ala Oakland it appears now and the Browns and the Cards for a long while) and at times about a winning culture but really with a team in interim and to a degree rebuild phase you need to not rebuild strategy or techniques and such at times but to rebuild people. At times that includes as Ron noted putting them in a position to succeed. And remember success breeds success and teaches success. It’s just like with my daughter I can teach her things that will help her pass next weeks test and such but if I teach her life skills then that gives her a tool that can be used in numerous circumstances.
Sorry for the diatribe there, I was working it out in my own head and also thinking about some personal management and parenting issues as I typed. :-)
by ChesapeakeBay9er on Nov 20, 2009 10:30 PM PST reply actions
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