2009 NFL Playoffs: The 49ers and the wildcard
by David Fucillo (Fooch) on Nov 16, 2009 7:16 AM PST
in News
40 comments
At this point, even with the win over Chicago, a lot of folks are less than optimistic about the 49ers playoff chances. The Cardinals win yesterday certainly did not help the 49ers divisional chances, but plenty of other action had a big impact on the playoff race. Our man urnext will be around later today with a comprehensive review, but I thought I'd take a look at yesterday's results in terms of the 49ers playoff picture.
Given how bunched up things are at this point, it's probably too early to make any decent conclusions. At the same time, with the 49ers just over halfway through their season, this can also work as a de facto halfway point look ahead. At this point the wildcard standings are as follows (not factoring in division leaders):
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
NY Giants (5-4)
Green Bay Packers (5-4)
Atlanta Falcons (5-4)
San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
Carolina Panthers (4-5)
Chicago Bears (4-5)
What makes this especially interesting? The 49ers have road games against two of the teams ahead of them. Just as helpful is the fact that the 49ers are currently 4-2 in conference, which is tied for the best conference mark among these seven teams (conference tiebreaker is the second tiebreaker after head-to-head).
More after the jump...
To say certain games on the 49ers schedule are "must-win" is a rather purpose-less statement. Yes they have to beat teams like the Rams and Lions. However, the tougher games are necessary wins as well. They may not win every game, but as far as most of us are concerned, they need to pile up as many wins as possible. I know, Captain Obvious speaking.
At this point, I think it's safe to say that every game has become especially interesting, even the Lions and Rams could be high stress games if the playoffs are on the line. But for now, let's take a look at the particularly interesting games outside the division. We have had plenty of opportunities to talk about the Cardinals and the Seahawks after all. More to come on that later in the season.
Week 11 @ Green Bay: It may be the first regular season matchup between Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, but both teams find themselves battling for their playoff lives. While the 49ers still have a decent enough chance to win the division, Green Bay is three games back of Minnesota, who swept the Packers. The Packers are coming off an ugly, but huge, win over the Cowboys at Lambeau.
The 49ers have struggled tremendously against Green Bay in the recent past. How much? The Packers are 10-1 against the 49ers since January 1996, with the Young-to-TO game being the one victory. Can the 49ers reverse course this weekend? Road games are always tough, and heading to Lambeau, even if it's not frozen tundra, makes for a difficult battle. The Packers have been rather inconsistent at times so the 49ers definitely have more than a puncher's chance. We'll have plenty more on this battle all week long.
Week 12 vs. Jacksonville: I'll be honest, for much of this season I really did not think particularly highly of the Jaguars. I don't know why, but they just never struck me as a team that would make much noise. All of a sudden the Jaguars sit at 5-4, in spite of a 39 point scoring deficit on the season. Aside from a 20-point victory over the Titans, the Jaguars have won games by 7, 3, 3 and 2 points. They've beaten one good team (Houston) and they've lost to a bizarro Seahawks. Suffice to say, I don't really know what to make of the Jaguars.
At this point, offensively the Jaguars are built primarily around the fire hydrant legs of Maurice Jones-Drew. Normally that'd play to the 49ers advantage in rushing defense. Of course, the Titans were built primarily around Chris Johnson and handled the 49ers. So again, who really knows what to expect. I suppose we can thank the lord it's a home game.
Week 15 @ Philadelphia: Last season the 49ers actually had a chance to spring a big upset of the Eagles. Mike Martz decided to get cute on offense and the 49ers managed to blow a nine point 4th quarter lead, giving up 23 unanswered points to the Eagles. Maybe the 49ers still would have lost the game with conservative play-calling, but I'll stick to my interpretation.
The Eagles have been a wildly inconsistent team this season, and it's a bit questionable how good they are. At this point they're better than the 49ers, but they're still not impressing many people. Their biggest win was a home win over the Giants that doesn't look nearly as impressive right now. And any team that loses the Oakland Raiders? Well, they definitely still have their work cut out for them. Of course, that doesn't mean they'll be any easier for the 49ers to handle. Of the 49ers remaining games, this is probably the least likely for them to win.
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Great read Fooch, you’re right about the Philly game, that might be the most difficult, as it will be in the cold in Philly. But you know, anything can happen, and right now, this team is coming off a win at home vs. Chicago, and the defense is confident. The offense should really understand what they need to do to succeed, and understand what the defense is doing for them, getting turnovers, and keeping them in the game, hence, overall this team should be confident rolling into Green Bay vs. an inconsistent Packer team, and the good thing about the Packers, is that they give up a ton of sacks, so let’s hope the niners can get to Rodgers often.
In my opinion has Jennings done a whole lot this year compared to what he was like last year? He just hasn’t looked as sharp as he used to, and Driver is just same as always it looks like too. The rush defense should be straight against Ryan Grant, although he’s averaging 4 yards per carry
That Eagles game is going to suck....
just because the Niners will be coming off a tough Monday night matchup with the Cards, then they have to come to the East coast and play a 1 pm game on a short week….the NFL hasn’t been to kind with the Niners scheduling this year…why can’t they move east coast time zone games to 4 pm and even things out a little?
by sanfranfanmdk on Nov 16, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe if a playoff spot is on the line it will get moved to the Sunday Night game
Also helps the Bears vs 49ers game had a 29% rating increase, but don’t know how much of the increase is attributed to the 49ers or the Bears.
SNF is what I've been hoping for all season
It’s the only late season game we have the could justifiably be moved to the evening.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
The simple answer?
We share a market with the Raiders. Since they can never play at the same time, the league has to figure in SF for ten potential 1:00 Pacific games (8 home, 1 Seattle, 1 AZ) and Oakland the same (8 home, 1 SD, 1 Denver) They also can’t be on the same network on the same day. That’s why when one is at home, one is almost always on the road at 10:00. When one plays their road 1:00 game, the other is either also on the road at 10:00, has a bye week or a night game. Neither team has justified more night games the past few seasons so we’re stuck with all these early games.
If we did not share the market the Niners would more likely be scheduled for a 1:00 road game back east, especially if they were good, as that would be a marque game for a network double-header. That’s how it used to be. This will be interesting to see how the league deals with this next season when the Niners have road games in San Diego and Denver, plus the earlier mentioned 10 late games. That’s three quarters of the schedule.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
MJD
We’ve shown problems handling outside runs this year in particular. MJD himself doesn’t scare me more than anyone else we’ve faced, and we’ve face some of the league’s best. Inside, we’re good. Outside, we need to tackle better.
Jacksonville is a tough nosed team and Garrard is playing well. He’s mobile to an extent too so pressure and staying honest will be key.
Yeah
Honestly the Titans and Jags are pretty similiar teams. Both have very good running backs and mobile quarterbacks in conservative passing offenses. And on defense both have been terrible against the pass, although the Jags have also been pretty bad against the run. Let’s hope the game doesn’t play out the same way as the one against the Titans did.
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 16, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
i think we have a shot
against every team we play on the remaining schedule. they are all winnable games. in fact some look more winnable now than perhaps they did at the start of the season. same story for us. limit turnovers, capitalize on field position and takeaways, play good defense. the offense needs to play up to what the defense is doing for it. you need to reward those guys with scores for their takeaways and stops.
the rest of our schedule
we’re 4-5. To get to 9-7 we need to go 5-2. Not easy. While none of the games look unwinnable, many of them look to be tough, unless we start playing a lot better. Here’s how I look at the games in terms of expectations:
@GB: Loss. Winnable but I don’t think we pull it off (4-6)
vs Jax: Win. If we want a winning record we have to beat Jax. If we don’t, it’s over. (5-6)
@ SEA: Win. We have to beat these chumps – but any road game is difficult. (6-6)
vs ARZ: Toss up. To win the division we have to take this game. We beat them in ARZ so we better repeat at home. (7-6)
@PHI: Loss. They’re not that good but going on the road in December? I just don’t see it. (7-7)
vs DET: Win. This one looks like the easiest game left. (8-7)
@ STL: Win. They almost beat NO yesterday – makes me worried. (9-7)
This gets us to 9-7. The swing games as I see them are Jax and AZ. We win those two and we’re in good shape. If we steal a win from GB or PHI even better. Another way to look at it: We have to beat SEA, DET, and STL. That leaves GB, JAX, ARZ, and PHI. If we take any two of those 4, we get to 9-7. I think we can do it.
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Possible
It will be difficult though, and unfortunately I’m not sure that 9-7 will get you a playoff spot this year.
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 16, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe
Even that’s unlikely though, just look at the Cards remaining schedule. Time to pray… ;-)
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 16, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
I think both teams will end up 9-7
I’m inclined to agree with wjackalope’s prediction on us getting to 9-7. But I also think the Cards will.
Look at their schedule – I take your point Brendan on it being theoretically easier but I think they will lose three straight games, one to us, and that will really put them up against it. It will be similiar to our own little winless streak (which is not completely forgotten of course!)
Cards schedule:
@ STL: Win 7-3
@ TEN: Lose. Titans back on track now. 7-4
vs MIN: Lose. 7-5
@ SF: Lose (Go Niners) 7-6
@ DET: Win. 8-6
vs STL: Win. 9-6
vs GB: Lose. 9-7.
Which means – correct me if I’m wrong – that we win the division?
"This could be another Very Special Team" ... Superbowl winning Niners lineman Dan Audick ...
by LondonNiner on Nov 16, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Yes we would
Win the division in that case because we beat cards going head to head twice in your prediction
by 49ersAllTheWay on Nov 16, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
to clarify
I’m not necessarily predicting we’ll get to 9-7. With the way we’ve been playing recently I actually think it’s more likely we’ll go 1-3 in the 4 games against GB, JAX, ARZ, and PHI. And I think it’s possible we’ll poo the bed and lose to SEA DET or STL. I was saying I think it’s reasonable for us to end up 9-7. If I were to actually predict it? I’d probably say 8-8
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Understood ...
… apologies for misquoting you! I am still going to cling to your theoretical musing rather than your actual prediction! Mind you, 8-8, whilst not getting us into the play-offs (unlike the AFC West; see Chargers, San Diego) would be a very significant milestone wouldn’t it, as Singletary would have finally stopped us being a losing team. Perhaps you have to do that before you become a winning one, although the 08 Dolphins would appear to provide evidence to the contrary.
"This could be another Very Special Team" ... Superbowl winning Niners lineman Dan Audick ...
by LondonNiner on Nov 16, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
no worries
I wouldn’t call it a misquote – just me not being clear
A hearty thank you to Rich Aurilia for all the good memories, and to the Niners for finally getting the uni's (mostly) right.
Yeah, it's possible
And that would give the Niners the division, but I wouldn’t say that’s the most likely outcome. For one, the Niners have to go 5-2 the rest of the way first. :-)
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 16, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
early on
we got some confidence after beating ARI and SEA. We then thought we could beat anyone (not saying we couldn’t have, or can’t). We lost to a really good Minn. team that we shouldn’t have. We lost to a great Colts team…I can’t say we shouldn’t have lost that game…because they find a way to win all year. We lost to Houston who is still a pretty decent team. Atlanta hurt. They’re inconsistent though and so are we…Tenn we thought was a bad football team but has gotten it together…we just happened to be one of the teams in their way once that happened.
So I guess my point is that we didn’t know how good/bad some of these teams were…even when we thought we did. Still probably don’t when it comes to our upcoming schedule, save for a few. If Detroit and St. Louis end up better teams than anyone thought I’ll eat my hat.
As for the rest…they have all shown Jekyll and Hyde, as have we…so I think we’re pretty evenly matched.
I was saying last night to a friend
the NFL can be awfully streaky. Teams go on runs. Sometimes wins, sometimes losses. We might get hot and win 3 or 4 straight. Any given Sunday though…
Okay So We Are 4-5 Right Now
One game out of the wild card and two behind in the division with 7 games remaining. I am enthused that we have the easiest schedule of the teams that are in this bunch, but a lot of that has to do with playing St. Louis and Detroit.
First up: Green Bay- This team has been wildly inconsistent this season, losing to Tampa Bay one week and defeating the Cowboys the next. This is a game that can and must be had, They have given up the most sacks of any team in the league and with the 49ers improved pass rush i see this as something we can take advantage of. Manusky has now come up with great defensive schemes in two of our last three games. I expect him to do the same this week. I think we win this game
Now onto the other teams on this list. I really think that both Chicago and New York are going to be non factors heading down the stretch. The Giants have an extremely poor pass defense and that will haunt them in the remaining games, especially with the toughest schedule of the bunch. I see them finishing at 8-8 and Chicago 7-9. So now it comes down to Philadelphia, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco and Carolina. Two make it and 3 don’t. We have already lost to the Falcons so it will be difficult to overcome that, but if they continue to struggle that might not matter. They key game is against Green Bay this weekend, if we win this game it put us in a great situation for the playoffs.
It’s going to look like this at season’s end…
1. New Orleans 14-2
2. Minnesota 13-3
3. Dallas 11-5
4. Arizona/San Francisco 10-6/ 9-7 (whoever wins that Monday night game)
5. Philadelphia 9-7 Have them beating San Francisco
6. San Francisco/Arizona 9-7
-——————————————————————-
7. Atlanta 8-8
7. New York 8-8
7. Green Bay 8-8
10. Carolina 7-9
10. Chicago 7-9
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
I actually think Dallas only wins 9 or 10
Between them and Philly, the winner of their finale should win the division at 10-6, the other falling to 9-7. The past four or five years the Cowboys always lose to Philly late in the season after beating them in early/midseason, regardless of where the game is played.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
You Could Be Right
I don’t have much confidence in Dallas, not that this bothers me. But Philadelphia has more issues this season then they did in previous years. I was wavering on Philadelphia going 9-7 or 8-8, this having to do with the outcomes of the afforementioned Dallas matchup as well as the 49ers game. There offensive line has been wildly inconsistent as well as there LB corp and running game.
Regarding Dallas, well my reasoning for having them with that record is simple, the defense and not Tony Romo. Spears, Ratliff and Spencer have all been stepping it up in the front 7 and in the past those have been the areas of issue for this defense. Minus Ware they haven’t had pass rushing ability, this year Spencer and Spears have brought that. While Ratliff continues to stabilize the rush defense, much like Franklin here.
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
game...
against JAX is only relevant insofar as the niners MUST beat a crappy team at home to have any chance at the playoffs.
the more important games are the 6 remaining conference games. 2 of these games are finishing the seson against DET & STL. Figuring they win those, they simply have to go 2-2 against PHI, GB, ARI, & SEA to end up with a pretty insurmountable 8-4 conference record. the ARI game also figures into the division title, so that’s clearly their most important remaining game. they win that game, and they only need 1 win out of the PHI, GB, & SEA games to hold the conference tiebreaker over other wildcard hopefuls. the rough part is that all 3 of these other games are on the road, with the “easiest” win being @ SEA (smith’s won @ SEA before, whereas the niners don’t do well on the east coast and @ lambeau). so, i’d say the season comes down to vs. ARI & @ SEA. they win both, and they’re in the playoffs. they go 1-1, and it’s a toss up. they lose both, and they’re done.
Since When Was A 5-4
team crappy? I understand that haven’t really beaten anyone but they are over .500 and that cannot be classified as crappy. Can it?
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
I'll say this about my Jags
Going out west is always an iffy proposition. Though that egg against Seattle was in part thanks to all of the off the field issues of the weekend (MSW, Quentin Groves)
That being said, MJD seems like he’s just hitting his stride. He just torched the best run defense in football for 123 and what should’ve been 3 TDs. But we’ll have plenty of time to discuss this next week ;)
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by Jonathan Loesche on Nov 16, 2009 3:09 PM PST reply actions
That's my big hope
Jacksonville hasn’t traveled west too well lately.
Jaguars
Is it safe to say that Garrard plays similar to Vince Young?
If so, since V.Young and C.Johnson were pretty dangerous overall against us, I don’t like the combo of Garrard and MJ-D. Plus Jaguars defense is fairly decent too so that game might be harder than I thought earlier in the season.
No, Garrard actually understands things like throwing lanes and reading coverage
That said, he can escape from the pocket if need be and make a play with his legs
Big Cat Country Radio, Every Wednesday Night at 10 PM EST
by Jonathan Loesche on Nov 16, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
No one does
Mike Lombardi even went onto to say after the 49ers game that Chris Johnson might be the fastest running back ever. I do have to somewhat agree with him. The 49ers have speed on defense and Chris Johnson ran on us like he was a superstar in a H.S. game, once he turned the corner there was no one who could catch him. Hardly ever see that in the NFL, especially in the last decade.
Two Completely Different Scenarios
Tennessee has a much better offensive line then does Jacksonville. Vince Young is much more of a threat running then Gerard. As stated above Johnson is faster to the outside the MJD. The Jags don’t utilize MJD as well as Tennesse does Johnson.
Also keep in mind that with the exception of the Tennessee game the 49ers defense has been absolutely stout against the run. You make the Jaguars on dimensional and it’s over, that’s easier to do with MJD then it was with Johnson.
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
I see it as this
we are going to 10-6. Yeah that means going 6-1 down the stretch.
@GB- Win, I really think that we are the better team, and we have confidence right now and our defense is better than GB(5-5)
vs Jax- Win, but this one does scare me as the Jaguars are a tough team, physical. Close win here.(6-5)
@Sea- Win, how can we lose to Seattle? Granted it is in Seattle where it will be cold, but we are a far better team than them. Easy win here(7-5)
Vs ARZ- WIN!, Monday Night Football, four game win streak coming in, no way we lose this at home to a divison rival. We have shown we can shut down their offense. Close win here(8-5)
@PHI- Loss, it is a winnable game, but tough to play Philly in their house in December. I think it will be like the Indy game, we will play extremely tough, but they’ll make sure they win. (8-6)
Vs DET- Win, no question about it easiest game(9-6)
@STL- Win, can’t lose this, and no reason for us to put a big whooping on them(10-6)
Divison Champs
I still think we can got 10-6, just play the way we are playing right now. Could be 7-2, but we’re not going to roll over and get demolished. Call me optomistic, but I do think we can be 10-6 and win the NFC West, just have to get a win streak together that starts on sunday in GB
I Actually Don't Think This Is Far fetched
Call me naive but i believe Alex Smith is do for a break out game. My reasoning behind this is his improved accuracy and pocket awareness. If he can somewhat stabilize the passing game then we should do much better on offense down the stretch. Frank Gore is running much better and looks healthy that a long with our weapons such as VD and Crabs could see this offense put together a few nice long drives per game. Limit the turnovers, take advantage of other teams mistakes, force the opponent to go long distances on our defense and control the clock and you have the formula for a nice streak. By watching the 49ers play this year this isn’t a far fetched scenario
It just comes down to converting on 3rd downs a limiting mistakes. False starts on 3rd down are killing us as is the inability to get off the field on 3rd down. These 3 things can be fixed and must be in order for the scenario Dub laid to become reality
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
I agree
that he’s going to for sure have a breakout game this year…and it could be this weekend.
What he needs to get better at is pocket presence. He left a few huge throws on the field Thursday including a late touchdown on the last drive. I don’t want him to hold the ball either, that’s something he has a problem with. He needs to be quicker with his progressions. Look, look, look, throw. When he breaks pocket he needs to quickly scan field too and either chuck it or tuck it.
9-7
I think there will be a 9-7 team into the playoffs, but not every 9-7 team will make it. If your giving the win in the Philly game to them, they would just need to win 3 other games to be 9-7 and beat us out with the tie breaker!
SO the question becomes do they win 3 out of Chi, Was, Atl, NYG, Den, & Dal?
Also Does Atlanta win 4 out of these games, NYG, TB, PHI, NO, NYJ, BUF, & TB again. I think they do, and that would put them with at least 9 wins, and hold the tie breaker over us!
And that is not even going into the Giants or Packers. Carolina ends up 8-8 at best.
I think our best shot is to win the Division, but we must also Beat GB and Philly, we lose either one, I think our hopes for a wildcard are pretty slim!
Heck, As long as we beat Arizona on December 14th, Our division hopes might end up on the shoulders of Green Bay the last week of the season.
11-5... My 49ers pre-season prediction! <--- Hey It could still happen!
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