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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

49ers-Packers: 49ers open as 5.5 point underdogs

Although week 10 is not completely in the books, some websites are starting to post odds for Week 11.  Bodog has not yet updated their odds, so I went over to Scores and Odds.  They've begun posting odds for next Sunday, and have set our 49ers as 5.5 point underdogs, with an over/under of 42.5.

This is definitely an intriguing opening line.  If the bookies were confident of a Packers win we'd see something more along the lines of a touchdown spread.  It's only a point and a half more, but given the amount of money bet on football, 1.5 points is a lot of difference.  Last week the 49ers, as a home team, were 3 point favorites over the Bears, which would indicate bookies think they're pretty evenly matched.

At this point, without any updated injury information, I'd imagine the line won't change all that much.  If anything it might go up a little as people put money on the Packers in the coming days.  The Packers beat the Cowboys, who are still a fairly solid squad, in fairly convincing second half fashion.  On the other side, you've got the 49ers coming off a hideous 10-6 win over Chicago.  The win was huge for the team, but it couldn't have given them much credibility in the eyes of the betting public.

Obviously Thursday's game went under the o/u.  For this coming week, will we see another low scoring battle, or does one team jump out with a host of points.  If it's the latter, I'd be inclined to think that Green Bay would be that team.  Given the 49ers struggles, and the Packers very solid defense, the 49ers are probably going to need to slow this game down to a crawl.  Aaron Rodgers has a live arm, and Ryan Grant is a fairly solid running back.  If the 49ers defense can keep this thing low scoring, can the 49ers put up enough points to spring the upset?  After all, who cares about covering the spread.  We wanna hit the money line win!

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Semi-OT

But I really love Bo-Dog’s radio ads.

“In 1994, when SAN FRANCISCO met SAN DIEGO in the LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, Bo-Dog was there. We watched as SAN FRANCISCO jumped out to an early lead, while SAN DIEGO could only watch, hopeless in their LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME loss.”

Really, Bo-Dog? Really? You can’t just phone up the NFL and be like, “hey, could we, you know, maybe use the names of your teams in our radio ad. It seems to be a pretty common practice, and it would make us seem a whole lot more legitimate.”

No, instead it’s: “We could probably save a few hundred dollars by making this as generic as possible.”

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Nov 16, 2009 10:42 AM PST reply actions  

gambling

But gambling is bad and the NFL would never, ever, ever want to be associated with it!

by David Fucillo on Nov 16, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Well-deserved snark at the NFL aside:

Maybe that does have something to do with it.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Nov 16, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't be surprised

Bit hypocritical since several NFL teams have made deals with their respective state lottery boards for lottery games.

by smileyman on Nov 16, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Redskins have a scratch ticket game here in VA

"Pat is still just scratching the surface." - Coach Singletary on LB Patrick Willis

by 49erLou on Nov 16, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions  

5.5 points sounds about right

Similar O-line problems. Our defense is probably a little better, though Rodgers right now is playing better than Smith. Our pass defense needs to step up it’s game-we’re 29th against the pass right now.

by smileyman on Nov 16, 2009 10:52 AM PST reply actions  

Niners have played alot of good QBs

And even the avg ones throw for lots of yards. Warner, Favre, Ryan, Schaub, Manning and Cutler. That’s six out of nine opponents, plus teams struggle to run so they throw more.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

also the run defense has been solid

so the other teams are throwing a lot. Cutler threw it 52 times. I know it isn’t an excuse for the low ranked pass D, but it is something to consider

Go 49ers

by iaalexeeff on Nov 16, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

We're in agreement

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd take the under

If I bet on this. GB had ten points yesterday before the help of a 4-yard scoring drive. They don’t protect their QB and their avg running game should struggle even more against the Niners defense.

First team to 20 wins, if anyone scores that much.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 11:01 AM PST reply actions  

We wanna hit the money line win!

True that.

by Brendan Scolari on Nov 16, 2009 11:22 AM PST reply actions  

I feel our O-line will give us no time...

woodson is too much of a ball hawk, and they have a solid d-line and LB corps…

if our Offense struggles out the gate, Our Defense wont be able to carry us for the whole game. Dont think Rodgers will give us the ball as much as Cutler did.

we need to chip away with 5-10 yard dump offs to VD or Crabs, then find Hill or Morgan deep. ANYTHING but 3 & OUTS!!!

NINERS 4 LIFE

by LADubbz45 on Nov 16, 2009 12:12 PM PST reply actions  

+1

on chips. take what they give for heaven’s sake. sick of the excuses why we can’t be successful. there’s always an open space on the field. hit it.

by Tre9er on Nov 16, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

well at least we don’t have hayward-bay in those “open areas” . ha lol

by srill waiting on Nov 16, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Pick the Under

with two horrible OLines neither QB is going to have any time to throw. It’s gonna be an ugly game.

by hudd07 on Nov 16, 2009 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

I don’t disagree with Vegas making the Niners the underdog, but I wouldn’t be surprised at an upset, given that this Green Bay team that just surprised Dallas yesterday also managed to yack it up against Tampa Bay the week before.

by East Coast Niners Fan on Nov 16, 2009 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

a battle for ultimate obscurity

which inconsistent team will come away knowing that much less about themselves in this non-epic game between two teams who have no idea how good or bad they really are?

by Tre9er on Nov 17, 2009 6:11 AM PST reply actions  

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