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Moral Victories and Ugly Wins: Week 10 in the NFL

Their were a lot of moral victories in the NFL on Sunday.  The Rams won a moral victory by coming up just 32 yards short of beating the Saints, maybe the best team in the NFC.  The Bucaneers won a moral victory by being just 1:14 away from winning their first road game of the season against their cross state rivals, the Dolphins.  The Lions won a moral victory by hanging tough on the road against the now 8-1 Vikings.  The Patriots won a moral victory by knowing the should have beaten the Colts on the road except their coach thinks he's God and the normal rules of football don't apply to him.  The problem is that moral victories are a little like getting into a car accident while defending your right of way.  The other guy may be the one getting the ticket but your still stuck in a rental while your car gets fixed.  So let's jump into the action by starting with a game that wasn't even played on Sunday.

Bears 6, 49ers 10

Over the first half of the season, the 49ers had as many moral victories as actual victories.  The problem was that moral victories don't actually show up on their record.  So while their 10-6 win over the Bears was about as ugly a way to win a game as is possible to do, it still counts the same as their 35-0 beat down over the Rams a few weeks earlier.  Watching Jay Cutler single handedly lose the game for the Bears made me think of when I play games with my young kids.  I always let them win but sometimes I have to try really hard to let them win.  If Cutler was really trying to lose the game I can just imagine him thinking after every interception, "How bad do I actually have to play to get these guys to win?"  The one bright spot on offense for the 49ers was Frank Gore who rushed for 104 yards and a TD.  But after all those moral victories, I'll gladly take this ugly win any day.

Star-divide

Patriots 34, Colts 35

I knew Bill Bellichick thought he was above the rules, as demonstrated by "Spy gate", but going for it on 4th and 2 from your own 28 yard line with a 6 point lead deifies logic.  Everyone who thinks that was the right call, please raise your hand.  If you're raising your hand, you're an idiot.  I know it's always easy to go back with hind sight and question a call, but I was starring at my TV in total disbelief even when it was happening.  I thought that maybe they were just going to try and draw them offsides, but when they actually hiked the ball I had to wonder if I was living in Bizaro world.  Even if they made it, it was a bad call.  Almost as bad as the call was the fact they burned their last two timeouts in 3 offensive plays leaving them with no chance to challangeor try to drive for a last second FG.  Faulk caught the 4th down pass but because he bobbled the ball he lost his forward progression, and the Patriots came up just inches short.  Payton Manning (28/44, 327 yards, 4 TD's) threw the game winning TD to Reggie Wayne (9 catches, 126 yards, 2 TD's) with just 13 seconds left, and the Colts won a game they probably should have lost.  All the Patriot players after the game said they agreed with the call, but then again, how do you question God?



Bills 17, Titans 41

Poor TO.  I think he's finally realizing how good he had it in SF, Philadelphia, and Dallas.  Trent Edwards was playing in his first game back after being injured, but it doesn't matter if Edwards or Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball.  The new "team first" TO is finally starting to give way to his former self.  You could see him yelling at coaches and players on the sideline during the game, and I don't think they were words of encouragement.  The Bills and Titans were tied 17-17 in the 4th but the Titans offense scored 10 unanswered points before the defense ended the Bills last two offensive possessions with interceptions returned for TD's.  TO said after the game, "What's new?  That's how it's been the last 7 or 8 weeks.  We lose games in the third or fourth quarter."  Welcome to Buffalo TO.  For the Titans, Chris Johnson had a monster day rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD's, and catching 9 passes for 100 yards.  Vince Young completed 17 of 25 passes for 210 yards and a TD, and won for the 7th straight start.  After the game TO sent Johnson one of his jerseys as part of a pre game bet.  He should have just saved himself the time and just given it to him before the game even started.

 Saints 28, Rams 23

The Rams played their 3rd straight home game against an unbeaten team, andfor the 3rd straight time that team left with their streak intact.  Not that the Saints didn't do their best to lose.  The high powered Saints offense turned the ball over 3 times, and the Saints defense constantly missed tackles.  Of course, a lot of the reason for the missed tackels was because of Steven Jackson who rushed for 131 yards and 1 TD.   The Rams even had more yards in the game than the Saints, 433-420.  Luckily for the Saints, Courtney "yes I know it'sa girls name" Roby opened the second half by returning the kickoff 97 yards for a TD.  Reggie Bush also had a solid game, scoring 2 TD's and rushing for 83 yards.  After the game, the Saints Randall Gay said, "You're not going to blow everyone out."  After which the reporter thought, "That's true, but comeon.  You were playing Rams."

Buccaneers 23, Dolphins 25

Ever since Marino retired, the Dolphins have had a rotating door at the QB position.  They may have finally found their permanent replacement in Chad Henne who improved his record to 4-2 as a starter.  In fact, this entire game was all about the rookies and 2nd year players.  Second year kicker Connor Barth kicked 3 FG's of 50 yards or more, and rookie Josh Freeman (16 of 28, 196 yards, 1 TD) made his second start for the Buccaneers, leading them to a go ahead TD on a pass to rookie TE Kery Sperry with 1:14 to play.  Second year player Chad Henne then entered the game and calmly lead the Dolphins down to the 7 yard line for the winning FG with only 10 seconds left.  Part of the reason they only needed a FG to win was because of a mistake by Raheen Morris, Tampa Bay's rookie head coach, just before the half.  After a Freeman interception that was first called incomplete but then changed on review, Morris seamed to lose his mind.  Channelling his inner Lou Pinniella, Morris berated the official for overruling the call on the field.  He was given an unsportman like conduct penalty, and the Dolphins got the ball at the 7, where they quickly scored.  Morris said in his post game press conference, "This loss is solely on me.  Getting a personal foul as a head coach is totally unacceptable.  I used the wrong type of language to the official."  Rumor has it, he pulled an Ochocinco and he just wanted his dollar back.

Lions 10, Vikings 27

You really have to feel bad for the football fans in Detriot.  With the loss, the Lions became the second team in NFL history to lose 31 of 33 games.  That's the equivalent of back to back 1 win seasons.  The Vikings even played horribly in the game.  Two times they fumbled in the red zone, and for the game they committed 13 penalties.  But all it accomplished was to allow the Lions to hang around in the game for longer than they realistically should have.  Matthew Stafford threw the ball an incredible 51 times, completing 29 for 224 yards and 1 TD.  For those keeping track at home, that's a paultry 4.39 yards per pass attempt.  Check down much?  Brett Favre by comparison threw the ball only 29 times, completing 20 for 344 yards.  At least Stafford managed not to throw an interception for only the second game of the year.  Of course, Ray Edwards was terrorizing Stafford all game.  Edwards had 2 sacks, 3 tackles for a loss, and hit Stafford 4 times.  He even did a Superman impression, literally leaping over the offensive lineman and landing head first on Stafford's head.  To bad the "I've got a stick up my butt" official called a roughing the passer penalty on the play.

Jaguars 24, Jets 22

Mark Sanchez drove the Jets down the field for a TD late in the game for a 22-21 lead, but then the defense couldn't stop the Jaguars andthe Jets never got the ball again.  The most impressive play of the game was when Maurice Jones-Drew (124 yards, 1 TD) ran up the middle from the 14 yard line with a minute and a half left in the game, but stopped short of the goal line and took a knee.  With no timeouts, the Jets couldn't stop the clock and the Jaguars took it all the way down before kicking the game winning FG.  Afterwards, Jones-Drew said, "Sorry to my fantasy owners.  I apologize.  I had myself today.  It was a tough call."  I wonder if he really was torn between scoring the TD to help him in his fantasy league, or taking a knee to help them win the game?  That's just wonderful either way.

Bengals 18, Steelers 12

There was something weird going on in Pittsburgh on Sunday.  It was a balmy 60 degrees even though it's the middle of November.  The Steelers, who had scored at least 27 points in 5 straight games, were held to only 4 FG's.  And the laughing stock of the NFL for most of the 90's and 00's, the Bengals, are actually good.  If you're a fan of kickers, and I no longer am now that they all stopped wearing the 1 barred helmets, then you would have loved this game.  A total of 9 FG's were attempted and the only TD came on a 96 yard kick return by Bernard Scott, ensuring that every score came with a kicker on the field.  Ironically, the PAT was blocked, keeping the final score divisible by 3.  The Bengals defense frustrated Ben Roethlisberger (174 yards, 1 int), and the offense did just enough to stay ahead for most of the game.  If the Steelers had won, they would be sitting on top of the AFC North with a 1 game lead.  Since they lost, and the Bengals now have the tie breaker, they're essentially 2 games back.  Things really are weird in Pittsburgh.

Broncos 17, Redskins 27

What's the cure for a 2 game losing streak?  Play the Redskins of course.  Except someone forgot to tell the Redskins that they were supposed to lose.  The Broncos now have a 3 game losing steak, andthe Redskins ended their own 4 game losing steak withthe win.  It started out the way it was supposed to for the Broncos with Kyle Orton completing 2 deep passes for TD'sto Brandon Marshall, who the Redskins decided they just didn't need to cover.  But 6 minutes before the half the Redskins scored TD on a trick play.  With a 4th and 20 on the Broncos 35, the Redskins faked the punt and threw a tying TD instead.  It's shocking Denver didn't stop them since Washington all but advertised the play by sending the TE in motion.  Seriously, when have you ever seen someone go in motion on a punt?  What further doomed the Broncos was an injury to Orton, which forced a rusty Chris Simms into action.  Simms completed just 3 of 13 passes for 13 yards.  Even the mathematically challenged can tell that's a 1 yard per pass attempt average.  Even the Redskins won't be threatened by that.

Falcons 19, Panthers 28

Who is this new Jake Delhomme and what did he do with the old one?  In the first 6 games of the season, Delhomme had thrown only 4 TD's compared to 13 interceptions.  However, in the last 3 games, Delhomme's thrown 3 TD's and 0 interceptions.  I'm sure a lot of it has to do with the fact the Panthers finally realized they have one of the best 1-2 combinations at RB so why let Delhomme throw it all over the place.  DeAngelo Williams rushed for 92 yards, and Jonathan Stewart rushed for 82 yards and 2 TD's.  What also hurt the Falcons chances in the game was that Michael Turner got injured in the 2nd quarter.  He already had 111 yards rushing at that point.  The Falcons cut the lead to 19-21 early in the 4th quarter, and even had a chance to take the lead a little later, but Jason Elam missed the 34 yard FG and Stewart ran 45 yards for a TD with just over 2 minutes left to put away the game.  You have to wonder how much longer this new Delhomme will hang around.  Personally, I liked the old one better.

Chiefs 16, Raiders 10

The Chiefs have been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last few seasons.  They've won only 5 of their 35 games.  What's surprising is that 3 of those wins have come in Oakland.  Of course, that could have something to do with the fact that the Raiders have been just as bad.  But a win's a win I guess.  The Raiders started out well enough, scoring a TD on their first possession.  But they only managed 3 points the rest of the game.  JaMarcus Russell was pulled for the 2nd straight game in the 3rd quarter after completing only 8 of 23 passes for 64 yards.  Russell said he was surprised and disappointed in coach Cable for giving him the hook.  JaMarcus, you'ld only completed a 3rd of your passes and were averaging less than 3 yards a pass.  What's so surprising?  The Raiders did have a chance late, but Darrius Hayward-Bey bobbled a catchable ball on the 10 yard line in it was intercepted by KC to end the game.  Ryan "I'm not a" Succup kicked 4 FG's for KC in the win.

Cowboys 7, Packers 17

The Packers stunk it up last week against the Buccaneers, so it was a little surprising to see them totally dominate the Cowboys.  Through 3 quarters, the only scoring was on a FG, but the Packers offense finally came alive and drove down the field to take a 10-0 lead early in the 4th.  Their was a little bit of controversy as Tony Romo fumbled the ball deep in their territory.  The officials said Green Bay recovered at the 3 but Dallas coach Wade Phillips wanted to challenge, saying his player recovered the ball.  It did look like he recovered it, but the official said teams can't challenge who recovers a fumble.  The Packers took over and quickly scored their last TD.  In response to a question asking about the difference from the poor play last week and the great play this week Charles Woodson said, "We've got to have that passion every week, and it's got to show up on the field."  I love it when players state the obvious.

Eagles 23, Chargers 31

LaDainian Tomlinson opened his locker before the game and founda pregnancy test telling him his wife was pregnant with, what would be, their first child.  He then went out and had his best game on the season, rushing for 96 yards and 2 TD's.  The Eagles fell into an early hole, in large part, due to the fact the couldn't get it done in the redzone.  Three times they drove inside the SD 10, and 3 times they came away with FG's.  Donovan McNabb had his best game of the year passing for 455 yards and 2 TD's but it wasn't enough.  Phillip Rivers completed 20 of 25 passes for 231 yards and 2 TD's including a 20 yarder to Legedu Naanee.  After the TD Naaneewent over to a Chargers cheerleader and knelt before her and gave her the ball.  But since this is the No Fun League, he was immediately flagged for excessive celebration.

Seahawks 20, Cardinals 31

What happened to the Seahawks?  They went from perennial playoff contender to top 10 draft status overnight.  I know they have a lot of injuries, but that's still a big way to fall so fast.  This game mirrored the Seahawks sudden drop from the NFL elite.  They controlled the first half of the game and generally frustrated the Cardinals offense.  Then, in the second half, the Cardinals seemed to move the ball at will and it was the Seahawks who struggled.  Kurt Warner, who completed 29 of 38 passes for 340 yards and 2 TD's said afterwards, "Parts of the first half seemed so difficult for us, then we came back in the second half and sometimes it seemed almost easy."  Maybe it was because you were playing a team that barely beat the Lions at home.

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says that going for it was probably the better choice for Belichick.

Belichick’s 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

But I was right with you. I’d have forced the Colts to work downfield for the TD instead of just handing them the ball a hop skip and a jump from the endzone.

by LoneStranger on Nov 16, 2009 3:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

In any case...

Calling anyone an “idiot” who thought it was the right call is clearly out of bounds. Is that the level of discourse here? It’s clearly a debatable issue.

Here’s a link to the Belichick-4th-and-2 calculator. You can plug in your own percentages and see if he should have gone for it: here.

by bravehoptoad on Nov 17, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ooops, try that again for the link: here

by bravehoptoad on Nov 17, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It was a joke

Don’t take everything I write too seriously.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 17, 2009 8:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Belichick put confidence in his offense

And even more confidence in his defense. I would love to have that offense just so we could ponder a decision like that. Two yards=game over.

by BucksForever on Nov 16, 2009 4:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I knew Bill Bellichick thought he was above the rules, as demonstrated by “Spy gate”, but going for it on 4th and 2 from your own 28 yard line with a 6 point lead deifies logic. Everyone who thinks that was the right call, please raise your hand. If you’re raising your hand, you’re an idiot.

Why? The statistics show that the majority of fourth-and-two situations result in a successful conversion, whereas the probability that the Colts would be able to score a TD getting the ball back on their opponents’ 29 yard line with 2:00 is only slightly greater than random. I think that number is key in explaining why a lot of people have the misconception that Belichick made a horrible call. The fact is, while the chances of a drive beginning at the 29 yard line with only 2:00 left to play resulting in a score are high, the chance of that drive resulting in the touchdown the Colts needed to win is not as certain as many people seem to think. Also, people seem to be underestimating the likelyhood that the Patriots would be able to convert the fourth-and-two. So, even when the Patriots were unfortunate enough to turn the ball over on downs despite probability being in their favor, they still handed the ball over to Manning with essentially only a coin-flip’s chance of being able to win the game. Also, look at it from this angle; by punting the ball, you give up the chance to be in a situation where gaining only two yards would essentially win the game for you- which is a very favorable situation to be in.

Advanced NFL Stats crunched the numbers in both situations and discovered that the Patriots had a 79% chance to win the game if they attempted to go for it, but only a 70% chance of winning had they punted. Given these facts, I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning for why making a decision that results in your team having a significantly better chance of winning is “idiotic.”

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 5:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Speak statistics all you want...

but the game is won with play.

Giving Peyton Manning 28 yards in 2 minutes for the game winner? 28 yards? Peyton Manning?? Anyone who has watched him play knows that that’s a loss waiting to happen.

I feel like football fans are starting to get way too caught up in numbers (fantasy football is a pet peeve of mine) instead of seeing the game as it is. Or maybe I’m just dumb. Whatever.

by brundylop on Nov 16, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

Stats, especially without context, should never trump common sense. In that moment, you punt. That team worked to hard to win to have their coach take all that work away by placing the game into the results of one play.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with that outlook. I keep winning money betting against “common sense.”

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

brundylop, that would be true if Belichick’s decision were “Should I give Manning the ball back at my 28?” Of course he wouldn’t. But you can’t appeal to hindsight if we’re discussing whether or not he made the correct call at the time. The logic of Belichick’s decision factored in the favorable odds that his team would be able to convert the fourth down and essentially seal their win with only two yards.

If you know of a way to solve discussions like this that is more effective than looking at the facts, then let me know and I’d be all for it. In the post that I was responding to, the author claims that Belichick’s decision “defies logic”, but then forgot to give any basis for this claim. Since the subject was whether the decision was logical, I figured facts and probabilities would be the right thing to look at. What is a better way to find out if a decision is logical or not?

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But that was his decision

  Should I give Manning the ball 28 yards from the end zone or make Manning drive the field against my defense. The statistics may make it look okay but the statistics include the dregs of the NFL who have had that chance also. If you were going to look at it with statistics you should at least account DVOA into that. As in Manning is this much better than average so that would change the probability to xx% if they go for it. And then look at the statistics and see if it still supports the decision.
  Basically unless you count in the factor that Manning is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL you aren’t looking at it logically. You’re denying facts to fit your conclusion.
   I think he handed the game to the Colts by being stubborn..

I’ve done it myself on Madden. Dang it this play is supposed to work :)

by snowweasel30 on Nov 16, 2009 7:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So you’re saying Belichick made the decision under the assumption that his offense would not be able to convert the fourth-and-two?

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 7:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Part of strategy

Is knowing both sides of the result coin. I know you know that but he had to account for what would happen if his team did not convert. Risk vs reward. He knew there was a good chance he wouldn’t make it; they had just failed the previous play and it almost went back for a pick-6. Coaches don’t do as much to win games as their players but they can certainly lose games. Belichick lost this game for his team. For me, that’s no hindsight. I thought it when he sent his team back out there. I’d say it even if they converted.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You Got me :)

  Re-reading I just mentioned the risk side I didn’t mention the possibility of getting a first down.

   The main point however was that you need to weigh in who you’re playing against. Statistics themselves aren’t good enough to make the decision as they are just the average. If you looked at the statistics of future HOF quarterbacks in that situation rather than the average I’m guessing it probably tells a different story.
   Another way to put it I don’t think you can justify the decision by using average statistics when you were playing an above-average team.

by snowweasel30 on Nov 16, 2009 8:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree completely. Sats that are defense-adjusted, situation-adjusted, etc. are definitely more valuable. But I don’t see any reason to just ignore any stat that isn’t adjusted as if it has no value. And I don’t see why a lack of adjusted stats for the situations involved here mean that, were this information available, they would necessarily prove that the decision was a bad one.

All I’m asking is what the factual basis for saying that the call “defies logic” is.

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They would necessarily prove that the decision was a bad one.

Conventional wisdom says the decision was a bad one. It’s a few statisticians saying the decision was the good one, isn’t the burden of proof on them?

by bignerd on Nov 16, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The proof has been posted a couple times in this thread already, but here it is again:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

Why? Are there statisticians saying that the decision was not a good one?

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The proof is a bit shaky. It’s 4th-and-2 conversion percentage is doubtful. Outside Barry Switzer no one has been dumb enough go for a forth down inside scoring range. That stat doesn’t really reflect the demoralizing natural of the failed conversion.

by bignerd on Nov 17, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 17, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind

that he’d also just seen his defense give up a 2 TD lead.

by smileyman on Nov 17, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

79% Chance?

Where are numbers on this breakdown? No one has a success rate that high on any down.

by bignerd on Nov 16, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not sure what you read, but what I wrote was “…the Patriots had a 79% chance to win the game.” Why do you think that a 79% chance to win a game in which you’re up by six points with only two minutes left to play in the fourth quarter with possession sounds too high? It doesn’t too high at all to me.

And here are the numbers on the breakdown: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The stats don't take everything into account

That 60% success rate on 4th and 2 is what’s happened in every attempt. But the Patriots trying to convert on 4th and 2 at home against the Lions has a better chance than a 4th and 2 in a noisy dome against a fired up team with the game on the line. It doesn’t take the teams into consideration, and it doesn’t take the situation into consideration. I think the chance of them converting in that situation is closer to 50/50. Giving up 40 yards of field position with less than two minutes in the game on the flip of a coin is just to big of a gamble to make.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 16, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This ^

If people are going to use stats they at least have to give it proper context.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 7:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

urnext, you’re definitely right that there are a lot of intangibles in any given situation. However, I feel that would be a much stronger argument were the 60% figure a percentage only of conversions by the Patriots, and only this season. The percentage is actually an average from every NFL team, so the really bad defenses are included with the really good ones, the really bad offenses with the really good ones, the homes and aways, the nosier and quieter stadiums, etc.

Of course, since it’s an average from such a wide sample, the 60% is not the exact probability of the Patriots converting against the Colts on fourth-and-two. It’s hard to ever figure an exact probability of anything happening, let alone something with as many factors as this situation. Nevertheless, a lot of people are pointing out how Manning’s likelyhood of scoring a TD from either field position would be higher than the league-wide average. But for some reason they don’t want to apply this adjustment-over-average to Brady as well. If the average QB converts 60% of fourth-and-twos then it’s just as fair to assume that Brady will convert that fourth over 60% of the time, as it is to assume Manning will score that final TD over the 53% of the time an average QB would. I don’t see the case for adjusting the stats for only one side of the field. Given how similarly above-average both these QBs played on Sunday, there isn’t much of an argument for why if you adjusted both QB’s for their values-over-average then it would cause the non-adjusted probabilities shift drastically in only one direction. Also, you have to consider that Brady would affect whether or not Manning would be able to make the game-winning TD or not, since a converted fourth down would have almost certainly meant that the Colts’ offense never would get back on the field. On the other hand, Manning on the sidelines had no affect on the probability that Brady would be successful in the conversion or not.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 11:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That was kind of my point

You’re right. Manning probably has a better than 30% chance of scoring in that situation if the Patriots punt. And that was my whole point. You’re using these stats as if they’re the actual odds of success in those situations, but they’re only what has been done by every team, in every situation, in the history of the NFL. The bottom line is, we don’t know what the real odds of success or failure were. I will say that the momentum boost for the Colts of getting the ball at the Patriot’s 30, instead of their own 30, was huge. The stats don’t take that into acount either. Did anyone really doubt Manning would score once the Patriots failed on 4th and 2? That also over inflates the 79% success rate you’re using since it doesn’t take this into consideration. I think punting gave the Patriots a better chance of winning. You think going for it on 4th and 2 gave them a better chance. That’s what’s so great about these boards. We can discuss and debate, but in the end there’s no real way of knowing who is right and who is wrong.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 17, 2009 7:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Their are 3 reasons why I disagree with the call

First, Bellichik is basically saying he doesn’t think his defense could stop Manning from driving 70 yards, with no time outs, in just under 2 minutes, from scoring a TD. I know the spin is that he had confidence in his offense, but the reality is he felt his offense had a better chance of converting 4th and 2, than his defense had of stopping the Colts. Hardly a vote of confidence from Bellichik.

Second, it was 4th and 2, not 4th and 1 or less. Although I would still vote punt even on 4th and 1. On 4th and 1 the Colts would have to respect the posibility of a run. It just opens up the playbook and gives the Patriots more flexability. They could run it, or more likely, do a play action and pass. But on 4th and 2 the Colts knew their was little chance of a run. Therefore, they could sit on all the short routes, which is what they did. Faulk caught the ball, but because he bobbled it, he didn’t get forward progression. He knew he was going to get hit, and when you know you’re about to take a hit you tense up to help deflect some of the impact of the blow. Unfourtunatly, when you tense up, your less likely to catch the ball, or in Faulk’s case, more likely to bobbled it.

Finally, the Colts knew they could stop the Patriots because they just did it on the previous play. They had 3rd and 2 from the exact same spot and failed to convert. Why try accomplish what you just failed to do on the previous play.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 16, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually that was my only problem with the play. Going for it makes sense, but lining up shotgun and then passing it short of the marker doesn’t. Any called rushing play would have been better.

My facts beat your opinions.

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Ugly football"

Many fans made comments about the Niners being undeserving of the playoffs based on the lack of beauty of their Thursday night win. I heard a Ronnie Lott interview from Friday where he stated that all playoff teams have ugly wins, especially in November. Just make sure you win the ugly game.

If you really want to see and judge ugly football, have someone replay the KC-Oakland game. Or just watch tonight’s MNF game. The former should’ve been blacked out in both areas. That was atrocious.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 16, 2009 7:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ugly football is ugly football..

That shows more about a team after a 4 game slide that it shows they are playoff material.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 16, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Funny

I thought it was a gutsy call, and when it didn’t succeed I had second thoughts.

By the way, I remember a couple of seasons where the Niners faced a fourth and one and Nolan would have Robinson try a run up the middle. Now those were bad odds!

by Bob On The Coast on Nov 16, 2009 7:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

If that stat above is true than the 49ers had 79% chance of winning the division last year and going to the playoffs!

Robinson 4th-and-2 at the Cardinal goal line . . . missed it by that much!

by bignerd on Nov 16, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If you re-read the post you’re commenting on then you’ll see that what I wrote was that “the Patriots had a 79% chance to win the game” at the time the decision was made. It is not the likleyhood that they would convert the fourth-and-two. It is the probability that a team that is up by six points with possession of the ball and two minutes left to play in the fourth quarter goes on to win the game. Why does this percentage sound unbelievable to you?

by Chimneyfish on Nov 16, 2009 11:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever the right answer to the call is, we’re all in the right place to be discussing it. Check out this this interesting article comparing how lucid and intelligently the blogosphere has covered this controversy as opposed to the main stream media:

http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2971_4th-and-2-Gate_fallout.html

by Chimneyfish on Nov 17, 2009 12:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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