49ers-Packers: 5 questions with Acme Packing Company
The 49ers and Packers will be squaring off in a couple days in a battle of two teams battling for a playoff spot. The 49ers have a better shot than the Packers at winning their division, but it doesn't make this game any less important. Acme Packing Company is the SB Nation Packers blog, and Brandon runs things over there. Big thanks to Brandon for taking a few minutes to answer some of our questions.
Fooch: The Packers lead the league in sacks allowed. Can you explain this problem and how (or even if) the Packers are working to solve it?
APC: The offensive tackles have been the problem. Veteran LT Chad Clifton has only played about half the snaps, and he's not as good as he was a couple years ago. Unfortunately his replacements, either LG Daryn Colledge has slid over or rookie OL T.J. Lang, have been beaten badly. Lang has shown some promise, and played well last week as the starting right tackle, which he may do again this week, but he's still playing like a rookie. RT Allen Barbre started the first 7 games, but he's currently buried deep on the bench. The Packers recently resigned veteran RT Mark Tauscher, who tore his ACL last December, but he reinjured that same knee. He could be back as soon as next week. Once Clifton is finally over the bad ankle that's been bothering him this season, and Tauscher returns, the pass protection should improve.
Fooch: The Packers are fourth in the league in defensive interceptions, thanks in large part to Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Some folks have come over to NN and said Woodson would likely cover Vernon Davis. Is that accurate, and if so, do you know the best ways for teams to beat the Packers secondary?
APC: Woodson doesn't play like a conventional corner. While Harris will always lineup opposite the outside receiver, Woodson is often in the slot. Against the Cowboys, Woodson lined up mostly against Jason Witten, and the Packers played a lot of nickel. But that alignment was unusual for them and probably designed specifically for Witten. I expect they'll cover Davis with a linebacker or safety. However their best LB in pass coverage is Brandon Chillar, who hasn't played at all the last two weeks due to a broken hand. He can play with a cast, and he was active last week, but they didn't use him.
Fooch: How good (or not) exactly are the Packers? The two best teams they've beaten are Dallas and Chicago, both of whom have big flaws (not to say the 49ers have been any better). So what do you make of this Packers team 9 games in?
APC: The Packers are playing outstanding in a lot of areas. They've outscored their opponents by 53 points, outgained them by 755 yards, and are +13 in turnovers. Their run defense and pass defense have been outstanding, although they've had trouble in pass coverage in the red zone. QB Aaron Rodgers has a QB rating over 100, and RB Ryan Grant is at 4.2 yards/carry with only 1 fumble and on pace for over 1200 yards. But where the team is bad, they are really bad. They lead the league in penalties, allowed 41 sacks, and have worst special teams unit in the NFL. They are getting killed in what Mike Tanier called "Hidden Yards".
Fooch: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are the big names among the receivers for outsiders. Is there someone else who the 49ers should pay close attention to among their receivers/tight ends?
APC: Jennings is playing through a bruised knee, but he didn't make it on the injury report this week. The other 3 players who have been dangerous are: TE Jermichael Finley, who is 6'5" and fast, but has missed the last 3 games with a knee/shin injury; TE Spencer Havner, who is a converted practice squad LB who's become Rodgers' favorite target in the red zone with 4 TDs in the last 4 weeks; and WR James Jones, who only has 14 receptions on the season, but 3 TDs and 3 receptions over 40 yards.
Fooch: Ryan Grant seems to be flying well under the radar, even as he puts up some quality rushing totals. I honestly don't know enough about Grant to analyze his game. What kind of running back is he (power back, between the tackles but requiring a solid OL, better outside the tackles, etc.)?
APC: Grant is big and tall, he's listed at 6'1", and he seems to be the type of back Mike McCarthy prefers. When McCarthy was the 49ers OC back in 2005, he stuck with 6'1" Kevan Barlow, so I often compare Grant to Barlow when people wondered why he stuck with Grant last season despite his early troubles. You'll see Grant run off tackle, just inside or just outside on either side. They usually run a couple screen passes per game to him. But he doesn't have the big play ability, so I doubt he'll have any carries greater than 10 yards.
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What I like about DVOA
They adjust for strength of schedule.
This game is closer than 6 1/2, even with 3 of the favors coming from home field.
The weather will be a non-factor. Except for the storm that is P Willis.
I believe our offense adjusted was 16th! if I read that right. Also, they cannot possibly adjust the rank to what the offense would have been with Crabtree and a Spread Offense. As Maiocco noted our huge improvement in YPC out of the shotgun.
Given those two additions I would say that our offense is not below average, but possible above average. Any Thoughts?
It doesn't look above average
DVOA stats are an attempt to be more meaningful. So, objectively, above average, got it. I am still looking for the “smoothness.” I wish I subjectively felt our offense was above average, and hopefully with two more pieces on the OL I will. Have you ever beat a segment of a video game with ridiculous luck, or made a pick-up game fast break freak shot? I’m looking for the time when I can watch the niners with only one set of underwear on standby…
Looking to put San Fran*six-o* here some time soon!
The offense is 24th
It’s definitely below average.
And GB should be pretty heavily favored in this one. They are 20% DVOA higher than the Niners and the game is at Lambeau. I’d say the line should be at least 6.5. It will be a pretty tough game to win.
by Brendan Scolari on Nov 20, 2009 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
threads
We didn’t do that this week. Some sites do it, some sites don’t. I’ll see about getting it back going for the Jaguars next week.
by David Fucillo on Nov 20, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
usually a little dab of my girlfriends make-up does the trick
….oh you meant cover Vernon Davis….oops
"Pat is still just scratching the surface." - Coach Singletary on LB Patrick Willis
I can answer that!
It will likely be Charles Woodson and when it isn’t it’ll be Brandon Chillar, who is our best Lb in coverage.
by packallday555 on Nov 20, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions
captions
ProfessorBigelow got really busy and hasn’t been able to do it. I’m trying to figure out a good way to work it back in when I get a chance.
by David Fucillo on Nov 20, 2009 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
Should be a good one
In some ways I see this Sunday to be a bit like the Bears game. No big play RB for GB (hey that rhymes), so the defense should have no problem keeping that in check. The only thing the Packers have the potential of being better at than the Bears is the passing game, but with even worse pass protection than the Niners, we could have the chance to pick up an INT or two in this one (Rodgers didn’t throw one last week, so he’s due for one!) I can see the Niners continuing to be more efficient with the ball as they’ve more than doubled their 3rd down efficiency percentage in the past three weeks. So I see it as whomever’s offense takes better control of the contest should win it. It should be a classic ball control, low scoring game (watch me be wrong though!) :)
Packers don't really do ball control
Given the Niners strength against the run, the only non-passing plays will just be change of pace. If Rodgers has time they’ll go deep. Even if he doesn’t have time, he’ll sling it short and mid range time and again.
Eh
An interception isn’t very likely and Rodgers generally does a good job of not throwing picks (see: him holding onto the ball too long at times.) He’s only thrown 5 this year, and 2 have been dropped and tipped up in the air by our Jennings and Driver.
A fumble is probably more likely.
by packallday555 on Nov 20, 2009 7:05 PM PST up reply actions
The Chronicle is reporting
That the packers Center may not play!
That puts a rookie against Franklin!
Yeah, maybe another INT for him this week! Not to sound like a killjoy, but the only problem I see there is it might force GB to run more to the outside rather than up the gut, and the Niners seem to be more vulnerable to outside running. Nonetheless, if they’ve got a backup center in there, Aubrayo should have a pretty good game.
Good point. He had quite a good game against the Bears. Might do just as well maybe better this week.
you don't realize
how bad the Bears are.
They suck
Don’t feel good about beating the bears, just like the Pack don’t feel good about beating the Lions or Browns.
It’s like beating up a 1st grader and saying you could then win a title fit.
Niners Nation
I know you. I live in SF.
WTF?
This is the best you can do on SN Nation?
Unfortunately for you, I am a Packer fan.
Nobody on here makes any solid points. Goatfather, seriously, not below average. Come on. Boring and bland. 49ers offense is mediocre and Smith is average at best.
49ers are a high energy team and I love Sing. That being said, Packers defense can stop your offense and our offense is very good.
Will be a hard fought game, but Pack should win.
49ers QB sucks, overall. Rodgers does NOT suck. Unless there is some major meltdown Packers are a stronger team.
All that being said, I don’t like Mike McCarthy at all or his offensive coordinator abilities. So, 49ers will probably win. No real reason for the pick, but every time I pick the Packers they lose, so go 49ers!!!

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