Fooch's Note: Check out the weekly team scouting reports from the rest of SB Nation.
Hello everyone and welcome again to How Wrong Andrew Davidson can be. Last week I said to bench Brandon Marshall against the league's "best" pass defense, and he only scored 2 TDs on his first 2 catches. Donovan McNabb had a less than favourable road game in San Diego, I told you to sit him - he threw for just 450 yards and 2 TDs (1 INT). I wasn't all wrong though, nailing Kansas City's forecast almost directly on the nose (10 pts, 3 sacks, 2 INTs) as they held Oakland to 10 points, with 2 sacks and 2 INTs. If you benched Cedric Benson, you avoided a horrible fantasy performance thanks in large part to an injury. Thomas Jones failed to meet the high expectations I forecasted, but still managed to score a TD and rack up 77 rush yards. Certainly nothing for me, or Rex Ryan, to be crying about.
This week's match-ups provide us with some interesting fantasy options. For example, two incredibly bad defenses face one another when the Cleveland Browns travel visit the Detroit Lions for what's billed as the Toilet Bowl. That's giving the two teams a little too much credit, this one's more like a Septic Tank. No one wants to see what it has to offer, but you just can't help to check it out and see just how brutal things are. The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars also square off, and Maurice Jones-Drew is good for his weekly 100+ yards, 1-2 TD performance because the Bills are what they are - bad. Are there any interesting fantasy nuggets in these contest? Read on to find out.
San Diego Team DEF @ Denver - The Broncos are on a three game slide, while the Chargers are just hitting their stride; Kyle Orton is hurtin', so it's with the Charger's D you should be flirtin'. San Diego really is coming into a zone, and should continue last year's trend by starting off slow, only to catch the Broncos for the division crown. The team allowed 462 total yards to Philadelphia last weekend, but kept the points in check until they allowed 14 in the fourth quarter. I expect a different trend this week, the Broncos will have 14 points by half-time, but be held to just a field goal the rest of the way. Mr. Roper is going to have his Chargers ready and willing to lay down some smack and give the Broncos a rocky mountain people's elbow. Week 11 Forecast: 17 pts allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs
Zach Miller TE, OAK vs. CIN - Why on earth would I recommend a guy that's facing a Bengals defense that has allowed just 3 TDs to TEs this season, not to mention that only one TE had over 70 yards receiving against? Well, it's simple: Zach Miller is due. The Raiders TE has had just 1 TD all season and was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards against Kansas City last weekend. The Arizona State product is the leading receiver for the Raiders, and I expect the team to try and feed him the ball. I also think the Bengals may be over looking Oakland after a big win in Pittsburgh. Cincinnati's swagger may work against them this weekend, and I expect Zach Miller to reward fantasy owners. Week 11 Forecast: 6 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD
After the jump, the QBs, WRs and RBs that you should do the opposite of what I suggest...
QB to Start
Trent Edwards BUF @ JAX - Well, I wasn't paying much attention to news coming out of Buffalo this week, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was named the starter. I no longer have much confidence in the Bills pulling off an upset or Trent Edwards as a viable fantasy option. Yikes. Week 11 Forecast:
250 pass yards, 2 PaTDs, 0 INTs; 25 rush yards Benchville
Matt Hasselbeck SEA @ MIN - The Seahawks should be trailing in this contest, meaning Hasselbeck has a good chance at topping 300 yards for the third consecutive week. Seattle probably won't have a lot of success on the ground even if the game is close, so go ahead and plug Hasselbeck into the starting lineup. Week 11 Forecast: 300 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT
QB to Sit
Jay Cutler CHI vs. PHI - Even with the Bears at home, and Cutler likely not able to repeat a 5-INT performance, it'sn not a good idea starting the gunslinger this weekend. Of course, now that I say that Cutler will throw for 300 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs as the Bears upset the Eagles, but let's not get side tracked. Philadelphia brings the heat early, often and all the time. This prime time match-up gives them a chance to show case just how furious the pass rush can be. Although, Cutler having two poor prime-time performances in a row does seem odd? Nah, not for the Cutler, the Eagles Pass Defense is ranked 10th overall, and also allows just 184.2 pass ypg on the road. While Cutler's total should easily surpass that, I don't think he'll be interception free. Week 11 Forecast: 260 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 3 INTs
WR to Start
Calvin Johnson DET vs. CLE - Megatron owners have been very unhappy with the Lions Wide Out for the better part of 2010. Some have gone far enough to drop him, others have silently suffered through the injuries. However, this is the week that Calvin Johnson lives up to his nickname. The Browns are the 20th ranked pass defense, but on the road they allow 269 pass ypg, which is 4th worst in the league (and not quite as bad as San Francisco's). It was a toss up for me to recommend Matthew Stafford (but that route failed twice already) and instead I'm saying leave Johnson in your lineup with absolute confidence this weekend. If there's one week to start him, this is it. My only fear is that the game ends at half-time to spare CBS viewers from literal insanity. I think Megatron still has a good first half regardless. Week 11 Forecast: 9 catches, 110 yards, 2 TDs
RB to Start
Beanie Wells ARI @ STL - First, let me get this off my chest: I hate Ohio State. Ok, I feel better, and knowing that I hate the Buckeyes, you should respect that I'm recommending a former Buckeye this weekend against St. Louis. The Rams put up a respectable outing against New Orleans last week, and really caused Drew Brees fits. However, St. Louis allowed 203 rushing yards to the Saints RB committee. Arizona unleashed Chris Wells for 85 yards and 2 TDs last week against Seattle. The Cardinals should know that the Rams are ready for the pass attack, especially after watching the film from the Saints game. Marques Colston did drop a bunch of passes, but overall the Cardinals should be gameplanning to pound the rock, and Beanie owners should profit. Week 11 Forecast: 100 total yards, 2 TDs
RB to Sit
Ryan Grant GB vs. SF - You can say that I effectively jinxed the 49ers by telling owners to bench Ryan Grant, but seriously, the Niners Run D is for real. The 49ers still boast the third best rush defense, and when travelling on the road, opponents average just 71.2 rush ypg (at just 3.1 ypc). I will also note that home teams versus the 49ers rarely score rushing TDs (0.2/game), and this week should prove to be no different. While the Packers find success through the air against the 49ers (allowing 284.2 pass ypg on the road), Ryan Grant will be a forgotten man. I'm also not worried about Grant receiving a lot out of the backfield, despite San Francisco's tendency to give up a lot of receiving yards to running backs. Sit Ryan Grant, and you'll be fine. Week 11 Forecast: 75 total yards, 0 TDs
NOTE: As usual stats provided by http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/ and http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats. Don't forget to vote, or post your questions in the comments regarding your own sit/start match-ups you're torn between this weekend. Also, those of you in the Niners Nation 1 league with me through FleaFlicker can appreciate the 3-game win streak I'm on, that's got me into 2nd place in my division. Also props to Dazed and Confused for his currently undefeated season.