49ers playoff chances take a hit, but....
by David Fucillo on Nov 23, 2009 10:30 AM PST
in San Francisco 49ers News
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Heading into yesterday's game, I wasn't completely confident the team would win, but I figured a win was possible and the team would be able to stay in the thick of the playoff race. Instead, the team stumbled to defeat and find themselves in less than ideal position for the wild card. We'll still keep track of the wild card race (as seen in our new Rooting Guide), but I'm certainly not holding my breath. Al Michaels mentioned a stat that since 1990, of the teams that have started the season 4-6, only 7% have made the playoffs. That stat gave me the perfect excuse to roll out a Dumb and Dumber clip I've been waiting to use for a long time.
The Falcons loss certainly helped (given the head-to-head loss), while the Eagles win over the Bears did not help. In the end though, the 49ers loss in Green Bay made the Falcons loss matter less and the Eagles win matter more. There are three teams tied at 6-4 (GB, Philly, NY), and then the Falcons at 5-5. The Falcons and Green Bay own the tiebreaker over San Francisco, and given the way the team is playing, I can't imagine the 49ers will win at Philly.
HOWEVER....it's time to call in the optimists. I realize people are demoralized after yesterday's loss, but I'm going to roll out a little bit of optimism. Laugh at me, call me crazy, but I like having something to root for beyond just a draft choice. We can root for the Panthers draft choice. Why not root for a chance to win the NFC Worst? And if this gets your hopes up, only to see them dashed in the coming weeks, well I'll take the blame for that.
The 49ers face Jacksonville at home and Seattle on the road the next two weeks. Given recent struggles, both potential losses, but of course, also potential wins if the team can figure out something on offense, and learn how to tackle on defense (easy enough right?). The Cardinals on the other hand travel to Tennessee next week, and host Minnesota the following week. Two 49ers wins, two Arizona losses, and suddenly Monday December 14 is a battle for first place.
I'd imagine the chances of it playing out this way are not exactly inspiring, but who wants to live in reality, when I can set myself up for even more disappointment?!
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Not to be a huge Debbie Downer
but would it really be worth making the playoffs only to be destroyed by New Orleans in the first round?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
New Orleans would NOT destroy us in the 1st Round!!!
… since they will, by all accounts, have a bye (along with Minnesota).
Instead, a team like the Cowboys or Cardinals would do us the favor.
Good point.
What actually really would bother me is sneaking in and having to face the Giants or Eagles.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
yes
I’d rather make the playoffs. Especially since the 49ers have Carolina’s pick that could be a non-playoff pick. I want to make the playoffs even if they get destroyed in the first round.
by David Fucillo on Nov 23, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
fair enough.
There’s something to be said for getting in and being a “playoff team” even though it’s as a sacrificial lamb.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
Think of it this way
If the Niners make the playoffs, they’ll have won either six consectuive and seven of eight, or five out of the last six to make it. That means the offense will have found an identity and Smith is playing well. As a division champ they either host Atlanta, AZ, or the second place team in the NFC East. If they’re a wild card, they would travel to the East winner (could mean a return trip to Philly) or travel to AZ.
This team may be frustrating to no end due to their close losses, self inflicted mistakes and confirmation that they did not do enough to upgrade the O-line and pass rush, but if they sit at 9-7 or 10-6 how are they any less of a threat than the other teams? Remember AZ last season; the team that allowed more points than they scored, kept turning the ball over and couldn’t lose by less than 20 points against good teams? They went to the SB. The Niners would certainly have better than a fair chance to win one WC game, especially if they’re playing in AZ or at home against an almost equally flawed opponent.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Winning 2 of the last 7 games...
Does not indicate they 49ers can make a stretch run.
Well, we're waiting....
And check out the league
5-0 best team in the league NY Giants lose four straight, yet are still only one game out of first place. 0-6 Titans, losers of a 59-0 college-style beat-down, have won four in a row. AZ was 1-2 with both losses at home and having an assumed SB loser hangover, now they’re the presumed winner of the West. Things change quickly. Just got to win one game and go from there.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Again...
winning 2 out of 7 does not indicate you are primed for a stretch run. Heck, as much as Cutler was gifting the 49ers a game, he still had a shot at winning it.
The coaching shows me they can’t make the push down the stretch. Even Barrows pointed out how the 49ers were completely unprepared against GB. Those are systemic problems dude. Those don’t change quickly, because of they did, they would not have gone 2-7 in OCT\NOV, the real months to show the identity of a football team.
Well, we're waiting....
Here's your optimism...
We’re a Kurt Warner head injury from the playoffs. I don’t know if any of you watched the 2nd half of the Rams-Cards game yesterday, but Leinart made about 1 play in nearly a half of action after replacing Warner.
Jason Hill is turning the corner!
Go Matt Leinart!!!!
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Nov 23, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
I'm just gonna focus on the next game...
Which is what Sing and Co. should do as well instead of screaming “WE’LL SEE THEM IN THE PLAYOFFS!!”, only to win 2 out of 7 since.
Well, we're waiting....
Cliche
You have a point, anything can happen. On paper, if the Niners are going to make that last ditch effort to become playoff worthy, they gotta do it in the next three weeks. I think the next three weeks could very possibly show Arizona’s vulnerability. I don’ t think they’re necessarily that good. Granted the Lambs were home, but The Cards allowed them to get within a TD and 2-point conversion. If the Niners could just start to convince themselves to do what obviously makes them successful rather than be stubborn and do merely what they THINK could make them successful, they might yet have some hope to make it this year.
6 wins in a row
That’s what need to have a chance to make the playoffs, and it wouldn’t even be guaranteed. This is another season since the Nolan era began, that the team has collapsed in mid season games that are important.
For the rest of the season I’m rooting for:
-Gore to get 1000 rush yards and 10 total TDs (he’s only 2 away from the TD mark)
-Crabtree to catch 4 more TDs (making his season total 5)
-Willis to be named to the All-Pro team (can’t care less about the Pro Bowl)
I don’t care about wins, or playoffs any more. I don’t believe in this team at all in terms of contending or winning with their backs against the wall. Here’s hoping to a great FA haul and a well executed draft in 2010. Scott McCloughan should be out the door tomorrow with the way this O-Line is performing (injuries or not).
Offseason needs list:
-OT
-OT
-OG
-OG
-FS
-OLB
-CB
Yes, we do need 4 new linemen next year, for depth and starting purposes. Joe Staley and Eric Heitmann can stay, and Chilo Rachal can become the back-up RG, but that’s about it. We need a new starting LG, RG and RT, and I don’t care where the team gets them from. Here’s hoping Tyson Clabo wants to make some $$$ in San Francisco next year. That way at least one first rounder can be used on secondary help, and the second can be used on a shiny new LG or OLB.
by Andrew Davidson on Nov 23, 2009 10:53 AM PST reply actions
Is this in order of need?
If it is then: Then is it not problable that the niners have a very good defense that repeatedly gets burned because of NO effective pass rush? It so then shouldn’t the OLB be higher on your wish list?
FS is a bigger need
Yeah we need a better pass rush, but we need coverage in the secondary which we don’t get at all.
Nate
How about, Nate (not Davis) at Safty?
better OLine
means less time the defense is on the field. I’d say we need a FS more than an edge rusher. Haralson and Lawson are getting pressure, the coverage just isn’t there and the opposing QBs can get rid of the ball when the pressure comes.
We need an OT before anything else, and an OG. The FS is our third big need, but let’s face it all three are pretty big needs.
by Andrew Davidson on Nov 23, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
You think so?
I think it’s the opposite. I see more occassions where the coverage is solid but the QB has plenty of time to go to this third and fourth options before finally throwing it underneath or incomplete after the he gets some pressure after 5+ seconds in the pocket. One reason for the few number of turnovers this season is, outside of a few occasions (Warner, Cutler), the opposing QB never has to throw while being hit or off his back foot. Even the sacks on Manning and one on Favre were coverage sacks.
I really think our opinion of the secondary would be different if they had a pass rush in front of them. Having said that, I would like an upgrade at safety, even if for the nickel coverages. There was Mark Roman again yesterday, too slow to make a solid tackle then still whiffing at the 20 yard line when going for the strip instead of just making a tackle. Maybe Regie Smith can be that nickel guy but an upgrade of some sort is needed.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I agree with you assesment, but...
I am going to take it a bit further. I am also sick of this team and have lost all hope and inspiration for them. Instead of making a needs list, I want to make a who can stay list:
Patrick Willis
Frank Gore
Justin Smith
Vernon Davis
Michael Crabtree
Eric Heitmann
They could put the rest on a boat and sink them for all I care, we need a whole new team. I am just so sick of watching them kill our love for football watching the 49ers.
Oh, Lee and Nedney can stay too.
i name more to stay
Nate Clements
Josh Morgan
Shawntae Spencer
Aubrayo Franklin
Michael Robinson
and one more thing…Bring Back Allen Freaking Rossum
Rossum
You mean the guy the Cowboys just released?
by David Fucillo on Nov 23, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
Matt Maiocco just said
that the Niners have no interest in resigning him because he can’t stay healthy.
even a cripple at PR
is better than what we have a PR.
I liked Josh Morgan’s KR ability, but we still need a reliable PR man that can at least catch the ball.
by Andrew Davidson on Nov 23, 2009 5:14 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
No Joe Staley huh? Im sure Glad Heitmann can mentor kids on all 5 line positions
"God tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're fucked."-Braveheart
I am not looking for mentors at this point. Just a new team.
But Staley can stay, I like Staley. I think he could be better, but I imagine that would come if the rest of the line was any better.
mathematically?
We might be morally eliminated next week, but even if the 49ers lose and Arizona wins, we’d be 4 back of Arizona with 4 to go. If SF won out and Arizona lost out, the 49ers would win the division b/c of tiebreaker (would have swept Arizona). I’m not saying this will happen, but we can’t be mathematically eliminated until the following week at the earliest.
by David Fucillo on Nov 23, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
And it's a non-conference game
If the Niners finish 9-7 and the only remaining loss was to Jacksonville, they’d have a 9-3 conference record and head to head wins over AZ and Philly. But as you said Fooch, losing at home to fall to 4-7 means morally eliminated.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Morally Eliminated
I’m going to have to add this term to my lexicon. Never heard of it before but it’s entertaining.
If they lose by only a score..
They still are morally in the So0per b0wlzzz!
Well, we're waiting....
Not with Kurt Warner's injury
Depending on how bad it is and how long he’s out it could do wonders for our playoff chances.
im faithful but it doesnt look good
Everytime I log on to my favorite blog (niners nation) I read the quote stating “this is the last time our season ends in december” You can’t make that kind of statement unless u can back it up. and if you don’t back it up we all demand answers…
by zogamer7 on Nov 23, 2009 11:28 AM PST via mobile reply actions
quote
I was thinking about that quotation too. Any suggestions for a new front page quote?
by David Fucillo on Nov 23, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
Whatever the formula is . . . Yes, I want that.
by bignerd on Nov 23, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I hated to see him go
but has he played at all with Miami?
by Bob In Beaverton on Nov 23, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
"The only blog that enjoys VD *and* Crabs!"
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
new quote
The 49ers, we will be better next year I promise!
by zogamer7 on Nov 23, 2009 11:39 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Speaking of playoff chances. . .
Not to really imply anything, but I’m sure most of us have seen what’s happending with Al Harris and Aaron Kampman. Not good. . .
Searching for my soft spot on the Green Bay Packers . . .
{site decorum}’em
by bignerd on Nov 23, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Nov 23, 2009 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
Next three weeks
Obviously every team wants to win and stay mathematically alive for the postseason, should the teams ahead of them stumble with poor play or injuries. That the Niners play two teams currently ahead of them provides an opportunity to move up. That AZ plays two teams also competing for playoff positioning presents an opportunity for them to fall back.
Obviously the Niners can not control what AZ does. If the Cardinals win out or even only lose to SF, they win the division and will have earned it. More important to me is how the Niners play going forward. If they win these next two as they should, it makes the AZ game a first here in five seasons: a December game with meaning for the postseason. It does not assure they win that game or that by winning they make the playoffs, but it would be a huge step in the maturing process of this team. I’d like to see them at 6-6 hosting AZ, with either a chance to tie for the division lead or pull to within one game. That has meaning for this season and next year; sweeping AZ and the division lays a solid foundation for playing these teams next season.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Finish strong, see what happens
So to all those that would even imply that they’d rather not see the Niners make the playoffs because of who they might face….child please!
Now, moving on, if you look at the remaining schedule for the Niners and AZ, it’s not that far fetched to think we can win 5 of 6. We’ve lost close games to Minn, Indy and now GB. The difference between winning those games and losing them is 1 more 1st down, 1 more stop or 1 less turnover. We should beat Seahawks, Lions and Rams. We can beat the Cardinals and Jaguars. That leaves Philly, and who knows which Philly team…the one that beat NY or the one that lost to Oak, Dal and SD…will show up. The Cardinals would need to collapse in their last 6…but it’s not like that hasn’t happened in years past. And there are 4 games on their schedule…at Titans, Vikings, at Niners and Packers that they could very easily lose. But we win our next 2, and the Cards lose to the Titans and Vikes…it makes for an interesting night on Dec 14th. That game could propel us up and put enough pressure on the Cardinals to send them spiraling back down to the dumps from which they came before last year. We can do this!!
If it doesn’t take the coaching staff too long into the game to figure out how to move this offense, I can see it happening. That being said, after seeing the play calling for virtually the entire 1st half, I’d be hard pressed to see it coming to fruition. You almost think the Niners should go into every game from now on with the midset that they have to play in “come from behind mode” from beginning to end. It seems like the only way they get anything done!
9-7
Cards schedule:
@ TEN: Lose. 7-4
MIN: Lose. 7-5
@ SF: Lose. 7-6
@ DET: Win. 8-6
STL: Win. 9-6
GB: Lose. 9-7.
Niners schedule:
JAX: Win. 5-6
@SEA: Win. 6-6
ARI: Win 7-6.
@PHI: Lose 7-7.
DET: Win. 8-7.
@STL: Win. 9-7.
"This could be another Very Special Team" ... Superbowl winning Niners lineman Dan Audick ...
Depending on which team shows up at the NIner/Eagles game
we could possibly win that one too (though I doubt it).
I feel bad about that game....
because of the short turn around (Monday night game, then flying east for a 1pm game) and that monday night game will be a tough, hard fought division game
by sanfranfanmdk on Nov 23, 2009 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
We play better on short weeks
than long weeks.
But yes it could be bad for us (I actually put them down as a loss for us at the beginning of the year).
My position.
I’m in New Jersey and my only internet connection is when I’m over at the town library, so I can’t watch the games or follow the blogs very well.
It sounds like this year it’s pretty unlikely that they’ll make the playoffs, and it’d be fool’s gold.
I think that the team’s talent at the beginning of the season was somewhat better than last year, but any improvement was gone with the injuries.
Clearly, the o-line cannot go any longer without being addressed. If McC can’t start plugging holes there then he should be gone.
I understand Singletary’s theory about pounding the ball, but it’s apparent to everyone now that the team doesn’t have the personnel to do it. The offense plays better with the spread because when the QB is under center the line is so porous that dropping back to pass or handing off is essentially a footrace between Smith and the other team’s d-line. I didn’t see the game (here in exile in NJ) but we know that every couple of games Gore will bust one. So go with a shotgun until you get some o-linemen.
Uh-oh, my battery is low. See you dudes later.
by Bob In Beaverton on Nov 23, 2009 1:27 PM PST reply actions
unrelated
well at least we do have 3 qb’s unlike pittsburgh. big ben has a concussion. batch hurt his wrist out 6 to 8 weeks leaving dixon from oregon. anyway we could trade hill to them for a quality lineman???
Playoffs? PLAYoffs? PLAYOFFS?
Had to get my standard Jim Mora quote in regarding playoffs.
Now down to business: what is going to be done about the offense, especially in the first half? The Niners cannot spot another team 20 points while their offense is struggling to move the ball that not only kills the time of possession but also affecting the defense who is out there for too long.
Smith has got to be the best 2nd half QB when his team is already down by 20 then will almost bring the team back but still wound up losing. I know we’ve discussed the shotgun spread offense to death since Smith took over but it is obvious that is the only time 49ers can move the ball on offense unless it’s a long Gore run. Smith looks comfortable in the shotgun, he has more time to throw and you can match up Davis against either LBs or the 3rd/4th CB on defense. Try something new to allow the offense to come out firing in the beginning of the game rather than opening up the playbook only after the opponent has outscored you by 20 before half.
Win the inning.
at a time
then we’ll figure it out. The talent level on this team is capable of winning out or only losing 1. The question is the utilization of that talent, which so far, doesn’t leave much room for the optimist in me. I hate that I have to pay extra for the “ticket” so i can be p.o.’d every sunday afternoon…
Who's really at fault??
Sometimes I wonder if Jimmy Raye really is the one to blame here. Singletary did say even right when he was named head coach that he wanted this to be primarily a running offense. I almost feel like part of Raye really does want to change it up to primarily a shotgun and/or spread formation, but Singletary won’t give in because he doesn’t want to lose his integrity. That said, why did Gore run the ball only 7 times, 10 times total? And if they’ve nearly come back in games by playing primarily in a spread-like formation, hasn’t he already given up his integrity? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying there is egg on Coach Sing’s face, but. . .
I was just saying in the transcript thread that I would rather lose closely every single time but know that I am so close to winning each time. Just a little bit more and something will click, something will go my way, will get the extra luck, or will make slight improvements, and then win every time.
Doesnt that sound much better than be hopeless and expect better only for the future than now? Especially now when we are so close to this transition point rather than be on the downside and never expect to win. The organization and the fans need to move on to the mindset of winning, and not to the mindset of continuing 7 or whatever years of losing and just not having enough now. Let’s hope for a great draft and great free agency when that time comes, but meanwhile it should be exciting now to get over that hump while the season is going on.
Great job Fooch!
Awesome article and thought the the Dumb and Dumber clip/ refference was histarical!!! Too bad it is in line with the truth haha.
Rec’d…. Not sure what effect that has with a front page post though… Good work.
Also...meant to add. Arizona
falling apart here at the end with a classic Cardinals melt-down does give us our best hope in a playoff spot.
Tennessee has been playing above par and the way DeAngelo Williams almost single handidly dismantled the Cards defense, I can see the same happening in favor of Chris Johnson. VY looked decent enough also. Adds another element to the game.
AND
Minny can definitely Favre the Cards the same way they did us. Although it could be a shoot out. I am crossing my fingers for the Vikings to blowout the desert birds.
If that scenario plays out as you mentioned in the article (2 AZ losses and 2 Niner wins), then the rest of the schedule looks like this:
Arizona:
@ 49ers
@ Lions
Rams
Packers
SF:
Cards
@ Eagles
Lions
@ Rams
thanks
I don’t know if rec’ing a front page post does anything. Guess we’ll find out!
by David Fucillo on Nov 23, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
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