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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Comparing the Undefeated - Week 12

Both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts have a chance to clinch their respective divisions this week. Indianapolis needs a win against Houston and a Jacksonville loss to wrap up the AFC South. New Orleans needs a win against New England and an Atlanta tie or loss, or if the Falcons lose they only need a tie against the Patriots to lock up the NFC South. After starting the season 10-0, these teams face the very real possibility of going undefeated. Let's take a closer look at these two undefeated teams and see what has made them so successful this year.

The Colts come into Week 12 ranked 2nd in Total DVOA. Indianapolis' passing offense is ranked 3rd in DVOA, and has carried the team while the running game has faltered. Peyton Manning is having another superb year, throwing for a league leading 3,171 yards, 21 touchdowns, and only 9 interceptions. The leading receivers have been veteran stalwarts Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, but Manning has also gotten help from the younger members of their receiving corp. Rookies Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have both caught over 30 passes and three touchdowns in their first season as professionals. Despite the absence of a dependable running game, the Colts have been able to consistently move the ball down the field. Currently, they are averaging a league leading 39.78 yards per drive.

On defense they are excellent against the pass, ranking 5th in Pass Defense DVOA. But, they have been good against the run too, ranking 12th in Run Defense DVOA. The strength of Indianapolis' defense is their defensive line, especially their ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts' defensive line ranks 6th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and Mathis and Freeney are a big part of the reason why. Through ten games they have combined for an impressive 18 sacks. As a whole, Indianapolis' defense has proven to be of the bend but don't break variety. They are allowing 29.23 Yards/Drive, that's good for 20th in the league, and behind such defensive luminaries as Carolina and Seattle. But they are only allowing .128 touchdowns per drive, the second fewest in the league behind Pittsburgh.

Take a closer look at the New Orleans Saints after the jump...

Star-divide

While New Orleans is not the perennial Super Bowl contender that the Colts have become in recent years, the Saints are playing like it this season. They head into Monday's showdown with the Patriots ranked 3rd in Total DVOA (New England is first) and 3rd in Offense DVOA. With so many weapons in the passing game: Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston, and Reggie Bush to name a few, you might be surprised to know that the Saints' passing attack has been outperformed by their running game thus far. New Orleans ranks 2nd in Rush Offense DVOA behind only Dallas, and only 6th in Pass Offense DVOA. The addition of an effective running game with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell has taken the Saints' offense to new heights, and makes them a more complete offense when you compare them with Indianapolis.

The biggest change on defense has been the addition of new coordinator Gregg Williams and FS Darren Sharper. Williams has installed a more aggressive, blitzing style of defense and it has led to more turnovers for New Orleans. The Saints are leading the league with 20 interceptions and they are also among the league leaders in forced fumbles with 11. All of these big plays on defense have allowed New Orleans to maintain an excellent +10 turnover ratio, and helped to cover up the fact that they have struggled against the run. Despite their undefeated record the Saints rank 26th in Rush Defense DVOA, something they will need to improve if they want to have continued success in the playoffs. New Orleans is allowing an average of 115 rushing yards per game, and it almost caught up with them against Miami and St. Louis. Unless they can figure out a way to shore up the interior of their defensive line midseason, they will continue to be vulnerable against teams with elite running backs.

Clearly these are two of the very best teams in the NFL right now, but what are the chances they will be able to run the table? Could we end up with a Super Bowl match up of unbeatens? Just looking at the schedule, I would say that New Orleans has the tougher road to 16-0. Not only do they face a tough New England team on Monday, they also play Atlanta in Week 14 and Dallas in Week 15. The Falcons could be playing for their playoff lives by Week 14, so I could see them getting up to beat the Saints at home. The Cowboys have three very good running backs, and I think New Orleans will have a tough time slowing down their offense. Outside of those three games the Saints play a winnable schedule to close the season including: Washington, Tampa Bay, and Carolina.

Indianapolis will not face anyone of New England or Dallas' caliber in their last six games, but they do have plenty of tough match ups with division opponents. In the next four weeks the Colts will take on Houston, Tennessee, and Jacksonville. The Texans and the Jaguars nearly beat Indianapolis in their last go round, and you know there is nothing they'd like better than to end the Colts undefeated streak. The Titans hardly look like the same team anymore, and they should be a tougher test for Indianapolis in Week 13 than they were in Week 5. While none of these teams rank higher than 14th in Total DVOA I wouldn't be surprised if one of them is able to upset the Colts, especially once Indianapolis secures home field advantage throughout the playoffs and starts resting players.

To the best of my knowledge there has never been a Super Bowl played between two undefeated teams, and while it's certainly possible I wouldn't hold by breath waiting for that scenario to play out this season. There are simply too many variables to expect both of these teams to not slip up at least once en route to the playoffs and beyond. If I had to hazard a guess I would say Indianapolis has a better chance of going undefeated. They have a favorable schedule and are the more experienced team. The Saints are very good but I think their weaknesses in the defensive front and on special teams (23rd in ST DVOA), should cause them to slip up eventually. At this point in the season are New Orleans and Indianapolis your Super Bowl favorites? How do Minnesota and New England compare to these teams? Who else would you include as a possible Super Bowl contender heading into Week 12?

Poll
Which team has the best chance at going undefeated?
Indianapolis Colts
277 votes
New Orleans Saints
307 votes

584 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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Saints

Drew Brees, admittedly, deserves a SB, hopefully they can go undefeated and show the Patriots how it is done… unless SF gets in the mix in playoffs

by danknerd49 on Nov 25, 2009 2:05 PM PST reply actions  

I picked the Saints too

thing about the Colts is this—when they clinch homefield they tend to sit their starters which leads to losses late in the season.

I don’t see the Saints doing that.

A Superbowl of undefeateds would be awesome though.

by smileyman on Nov 25, 2009 2:21 PM PST reply actions  

Yes it would be!

No Champagne for the Dolphins 100% cause one team is leaving completely undefeated

by danknerd49 on Nov 25, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions  

The part about the Colts resting their starters is a common misconception.

Back in 2005, when they started the year 13-0, they didn’t rest their starters until Week 15 which was after their first loss. Plus that was something Dungy did. Caldwell has shown that he’s a much different coach. For example, under Dungy the Colts almost never blitzed. Now the Colts send about 12-15 blitzes a game and it has resulted in a much more effective run defense as well as a less predictable pass rush. So there is no guarantee that Caldwell will rest the starters just b/c Dungy did. Plus I have a hard time believing that Caldwell would tell Peyton Manning, to his face, that he has to rest the last two games if the Colts were 14-0.

by P0RKINS on Nov 29, 2009 8:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Saints

Looks like the Chargers just may make the playoffs yet again which we all know is always a win against Indy in the playoffs.

by thegame1921 on Nov 25, 2009 2:31 PM PST reply actions  

Colts

The Saints will lose in 4 days when they finally play a team even better than they are, the Pats.

Note: On Football Outsiders playoff odds page, they give the Colts an 11.6% chance of going 16-0 and the Saints a 5.8% chance of going 16-0. That sounds about right to me, obviously the odds are very strong that neither of them will end up undefeated.

by Brendan Scolari on Nov 25, 2009 4:15 PM PST reply actions  

Pats

At the beginning of the year, I would have believed that to be true (Pats > Saints). However, I think the Saints offense can go to toe-to-toe with the Pats offense in a shootout, and that’s exactly what I think is going to happen. Who knows, though, I suppose.

by sfgfan on Nov 25, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

We'll see

I bet on the Pats, because they’re 3 point underdogs. Seems like a good bet to me, as I see the Pats as slightly better (this is also reflected in DVOA). The Saints had really dropped off recently before their last win, I’m not convinced they are quite as good as they’ve looked so far.

by Brendan Scolari on Nov 25, 2009 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Really...

I agree that the stats say the pats are better than the saints. But do you remember how many close games the pats had? And one of those teams that they only beat by 3 points to go 16-0 came back and beat them in the superbowl. The saints have been rough looking lately but they have found ways to close out games. I wont predict who will win on monday night, but i will say that it will be an incredible game. Also to note everyone talks about the saints struggle with the run, since their runstopper ellis has been out. He ’ll be back this week, and nobody talks about will smith and his 9 sacks this year. The saints may not have the best defense, but they seem to be able to disrupt quarterbacks. Yes Tom Brady is awesome but even he struggles with out time to throw the ball. And by the way the saints are the underdogs in this game.

by JAM13 on Nov 25, 2009 6:33 PM PST reply actions  

I'm hoping the Saints take a page out of the Giants defense book from the Superbowl.

The Giants’ constant, and very often effective, pressure on Brady made all the difference in that game and gave NY the upset win. The new Saints Defensive Coordinator, Greg Williams, has really turned the NO defense upside down. They are more agressive than I have ever seen them (I’m a fan since ’67) and it shows in the positive turnover ratio.

Having said all that, and knowing that this is going to be a passing shootout, I think the game will be won in the trenches by the big guys with no names!!!

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers

by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 26, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions  

The Texans Will Finish 11-5

The Terrible Texans are about to turn things 360 degrees around. You can believe that Bob McNair has had some very pointed observations for Coach Kubiak. For starters, if our kicker misses one more FG or PAT, fire his ass. He has already lost 2 games in a row for us.

Next, where has the offense been? If you’re not going to show up for work go draw unemployment. They show moments of brilliance. But, they are not consistant. The Coach needs to wake up to one fact .. There is only one offensive scheme that has ever worked for Houston area football teams (pro & academic) The Run & Shoot. Go to the Run and Shoot and the Texans will make the playoffs on a regular basis.

There is nothing wrong with the defense. They just need to be aware of what the hell is going on around them.

All of that being said, the Texans will win this game because they must. This is their true signature game. The Colts are far more of a threat to their greatness. The Titans have been there and done that.

There is a signature game that defines every great team. That fork in the road, the road less traveled. They are about to take the turn towards greatness.

As all Texans Fans already know in their hearts and in their guts ..

The Texans are so close to greatness .. Success Leaves Clues

Houston .. The House Of Hurt

by Wyzard on Nov 28, 2009 2:10 PM PST reply actions  

The Colts 10-1

The Texans will hand the Colts their first defeat

Colts 31 vs Texans 34

The House Of Hurt

by Wyzard on Nov 28, 2009 2:14 PM PST reply actions  

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