Mining your way to fantasy gold - Week 12 Weekend Edition

Well, to say the least, the Thursday Turkey Day games were rather disappointing.  For those of you stuffed out of your waist bands, there's no doubting you feel asleep during the later games.  The good news?  The fantasy performers were alive and well all day long, well, except Eli Manning and the Giants.  Green Bay's Defense was the stud of the day, and Charles Woodson owners in IDP leagues enjoyed a pretty big performance (6 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 FF, 1 Def TD).  Now that the sloppy Thanksgiving games are out of the way, it's time to focus on this Sunday's slate.  Those of you looking for fantasy match-ups in the Saskatchewan Rough-Riders and Montreal Alouettes Grey Cup battle, you're at the wrong blog. 

The Sleepers

Kellen Winslow TE TB @ ATL - Tampa Bay's TE is handling a knee-injury, but should be good to go by Sunday.  The Falcons typically allow pretty good TE production, and Winslow should add another 5+ reception game to his season total (5).  The Falcons have allowed 16 PaTDs on the season, giving the Soldier a good chance at crossing the stripe for six.  Winslow is a very good start in fantasy leagues this weekend, plug him into your lineup.  Week 12 fantasy forecast:  6 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD

CAR Team DEF @ NYJ - I like the Panthers here because they match-up well against the Jets.  Both teams are heavy-run teams, and both teams will be grinding away for yards most of the afternoon.  The Panthers run D is suspect, ranked 26th in the NFL, but their pass D is formidable, ranking 4th.  Mark "Dirty" Sanchez has thrown just as many INTs at home as he has on the road (8).  The Jets are struggling as of late, losing 3 straight; while the Panthers fall victim to the inconsistency bug.  This game has defensive struggle written all over it, and I'm leaning on the Panthers, because Jake Delhomme has thrown just one INT in four games and Sanchez has thrown 6 in his past two.  Week 12 fantasy forecast:  13 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 FR

After the jump, the QBs, WRs, and RBs to start or sit this weekend...

QB to Start

Matt Ryan ATL vs. TB - Ryan hasn't had the greatest season so far, but turned it around last weekend against the Giants.  The Falcons comeback came up short in OT, but Ryan threw for 268 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  With the 1-9 Bucs coming to town, Ryan has a favourable match-up for the second week in a row; Tampa has allowed 22 PaTDs so for this season.  The Bucs have a poor run defense, but I still expect the Falcons QB to put up respectable fantasy numbers.  Feel no fear, and start Matty Ice.  Week 12 fantasy forecast:  220 pass yards, 2 PaTDs, 0 INTs

QB to Sit

Joe Flacco BAL vs. PIT - Flacco hasn't thrown a TD pass in 3 straight games and has only thrown for 200+ once in that span (256 last week).  After blazing onto the fantasy scene earlier in the season (Three 300-yards games, 11 TDs in first 6 games), the Ravens signal caller has cooled off (just 1 PaTD in past 4, 0 300-yard games).  The Steelers may be down Troy Polamalu, but the 12th ranked Pass D should hold up ok without him.  Keep Flacco on the bench, Pittsburgh has allowed just 11 PaTDs this season.  Week 12 fantasy forecast:  200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 2 INTs

WR to Start

Michael Crabtree SF vs. JAX -  This is a bad idea, by naming Crabtree as the WR to start I've likely jinxed the poor guy into a goose-egg this Sunday.  After all, I did say I wouldn't be relying on Crab in my fantasy sit/starts for the rest of the season.  However, with the Jags pass "defense" coming to town, and Crabtree's first NFL TD out of the way, it's hard not to see this favourable match-up without bias.  The Jaguars have the 25th ranked pass defense, and have also allowed 17 PaTDs.  It's time to put Crabtree in your starting lineup.  Week 12 fantasy forecast:  6 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD

WR to Sit

DeSean Jackson PHI vs. WAS -  The last time Jackson faced the Redskins, all he did was score on a 67-yard rushing TD on top of his 69 yards receiving (1 TD).  In other words, I might be foolish to suggest sitting Jackson against Washington, but foolish is my middle name (well one of my many middle names).  I'm standing by the Redskins #1 ranked pass defense, and I expect Jackson to be kept in check.  However, the speedster is a threat to score even if he gets just one touch, but I'll bet against that threat this week (Washington has allowed 10 PaTDs).  Week 12 fantasy forecast:  2 catches, 60 yards, 0 TDs; 1 rush, 15 yards

RB to Start

Justin Forsett SEA @ STL - In Julius Jones' absence, Justin Forsett has been a pretty formidable fantasy performer.  Over the past two games, Forsett has had 238 total yards and 2 TDs (123 rush yards @ ARI, 80 receiving last week @ MIN).  Jones is still a bit banged up, so Forsett will be a pretty good start with or without Jones playing.  The Seahawks should be leaning on the former 7th round pick to see what they have moving forward.  Start Forsett against a weak Rams D, who ranked 28th in the NFL vs. the run while allowing 14 rush TDs.  Week 12 forecast:  80 yards rushing, 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards

RB to Sit

Joseph Addai IND @ HOU - Similar to DeSean Jackson vs. Washington, the last time Addai faced the Texans he scored 1 rushing TD and also caught 1 TD.  The Colts RB has been on fire the past 3 games, scoring a total of 5 TDs.  Also making this "sit" recommendation sketchy, Houston is ranked 22nd against the run, and have given up 13 rush TDs.  However, I think all good things must come to an end, and I think the Texans will keep Addai out of the end zone, ending his 3-game LT-like TD streak.  Week 12 forecast:  60 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 3 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs

That's all there is for this weekend's fantasy forecast, all stats from Yahoo! and NFL Team Rankings.  Be sure to check out the poll and make your selection for top fantasy performer.  As usual, if you have any specific sit/start questions, don't be shy in the comments below.  For those watching the Grey Cup, I'll take the Rough-Riders to beat the Alouettes, 35-31.

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