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49ers and Cardinals: Battle to the end?

Maiocco had a couple interesting comments on his Twitter page yesterday looking at the 49ers potential playoff chances:

Niners just need to hold serve w/ Cardinals and beat them Dec. 14. RT @_brandone_ What do these injuries mean to postseason hopes?

49ers-Cardinals game, possible NFC West decider, is 6 weeks from today.

Indeed, the 49ers and Cardinals' remaining respective schedules could lead to quite the close to the season.  There are nine games left, but there is a bit of symmetry worth exploring.  Before we get into it, I can definitely acknowledge that the Seahawks are still alive in the potential playoff race.  They're a game back of San Francisco and two back of Arizona, which could obviously be made up.  However, for the purposes of this post, we'll hold off on discussing the Seahawks.  As the weeks progress, if things change we'll adjust accordingly.

I decided to utilize a table for this post, and due to the length of it I've posted it after the jump.  Feel free to comment on my predictions, or make your own.

Star-divide

I've put together a table with each of the 49ers and Cardinals remaining opponents and some quick predictions from me.  If the 49ers want to win the division, as Maiocco said, they simply need to hold serve with Arizona and then beat Arizona at home Monday night December 14.

I'm sure plenty of folks will disagree with my quick predictions here, but I honestly don't think they're completely out of the realm of possibility.  Maybe it's a bit optimistic, but I actually think one could make an argument for all of the wins and losses listed below.

SF Result SF Opp Week Ari Opp Ari Result
W  vs Tenn Week 9  @ Chi L
W vs Chi Week 10  vs Sea W
L  @ GB Week 11  @ StL W
W vs Jax Week 12  @ Tenn W
W  @ Sea Week 13  vs Minn L
W vs Ari Week 14  @ SF L
L  @Phi Week 15  @ Det W
W vs Det Week 16  vs StL W
W  @ StL Week 17  vs GB W

The end result is both teams finish 10-6 with the 49ers getting the tiebreaker.  Maybe that's just a little too neat and tidy for folks, but I'll roll with it for now.  In making the predictions I can honestly say it was just a once-through picking games and not thinking how I could figure out the right numbers.  I went with what I feel was my gut instinct, which might be the most honest I could be at this point.  Or subliminally I was adjusting on the fly.

Either way, I would certainly be ecstatic to see this end result.  It all starts this Sunday with Tennessee and Chicago on the respective dockets.  I'd imagine the team isn't "scoreboard-watching" at this point, but I certainly have no problem as a fan doing a bit of scoreboard watching.

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Seems accurate enough to me Fooch

One could always exchange one for another; maybe we beat GB but get caught looking ahead @ Seattle. Or AZ upsets Minnesota but looses the finale to GB. Either way, end the losing streak this weekend, beat AZ when they come to town and win the “no choice but win” games: Jags, Rams and Lions. Everything else will then fall as it should.

While rooting for Chicago to defeat AZ on Sunday, I hope both teams put a physical toll on each other and go to O.T. Bears come here on a short week so let’s hope they’re beat up but coming off a win.

One thing to watch for: when Seattle beats Detroit this weekend and AZ hopefully loses at Chicago, we may hear Seahawk fans beating their chest about being one game back of SF and AZ. Just point out that their three game road trip will leave them solidly in third place.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 3, 2009 11:12 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think we are gona shock some people

We almost beat the Eagles under Nolan, and I think the niners play up to cometition, aside from the Falcons.

I like your picks though

SF Result SF Opp Week Ari Opp Ari Result
W vs Tenn Week 9 @ Chi L
W vs Chi Week 10 vs Sea W
L @ GB Week 11 @ StL W
W vs Jax Week 12 @ Tenn W
W @ Sea Week 13 vs Minn L
L vs Ari Week 14 @ SF W
W @Phi Week 15 @ Det W
W vs Det Week 16 vs StL W
W @ StL Week 17 vs GB L

Loss to Cardinals and still we make the playoffs!

"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco

by rlott#42 on Nov 3, 2009 11:13 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Here's what concerns me

Right now these two teams are playing neck and neck, yet you have Ari losing to Chicago and us beating Chi within four days of each other. That doesn’t make sense.

What I’m encouraged by is how erratic Arizona can be. If they get whooped by the Panthers, they have a problem.

by nsniners on Nov 3, 2009 11:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Easy

AZ travels to Chicago. Chicago travels to S.F.

Chicago has to travel on a very short week. Three days to recover, pratice and travel four hours west.

AZ was blown out at home vs Indy. Niners went to Indy and should’ve won. That’s one example of a recent common opponent.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 3, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Spot on Chap, Spot on

"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco

by rlott#42 on Nov 3, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Should have won?...

The 49er did their best to lose in IND.

Jeebus.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 4, 2009 12:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the mention Fooch,

but the Seahawks look pretty done to me. 7-9 at best, though I guess with the inconsistencies of this division, that could be enough to be ‘competitive’.

by LantermanC on Nov 3, 2009 11:23 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Card's fan said something similiar -

“Stick a Fork in Them” is the term they used for their post. We cannot afford to sink to the level of AZ thinking they deserve respect, games are in the bag, and all their high-and-mighty crap. We take it one game at a time, stomp the Hawks when they’re next on our hit list, and perhaps the Cards get their butts handed to them again if they overlook Seattle. I’m with Fooch and you each – the Cardinals are our arch-nemesis, and definitely not the Hawks, but we give them enough attention as contenders when the time comes we have to fight them again.

by ranger89 on Nov 3, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's charitable ...

… for you to pencil us in for a win against Chicago, and them in for a loss. But I don’t want to quibble with your predictions too much because we all know predictions are basically guesses, and a lot can happen between now and then.

But …

The interesting thing is that, if we beat the Cardinals for a sweep, we could win the division and 9-7 (take your predictions, they also lose to GB; we lose to Chi as well). But if we lose to them, then 11-6 may not be enough.

In division tiebreakers are:
1) Head to head (we’d be tied)
2) Division record (we’d be tied)
3) Common opponents (tied because of different Hou results if they lose to Chicago).
4) Strength of schedule (very hard to predict, but we could have the edge here if Phi ends up better than NYG and Atl ends up better than Car).

But to get to 11-5 after losing to them we’d have to win every other game on our schedule.

Obviously unexpected things can happen. Carolina might be turning it on, which means the strength of schedule component is up in the air. But if we lose that game against the Cards, life gets really hard unless they do us some favors by losing some games they should win.

by Ronaldinho on Nov 3, 2009 12:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Why does everyone agree we'll lose to Green Bay?

There O-Line is worse than ours, and their defense isn’t impressive at all. I think the Niners win that game, even if it is in “sacred” Lambeau Field. Aside from taking it one game at a time, our toughest match-ups will be @ Seattle (paybacks are a [site decorum]), @ Philadelphia, and home vs. the Cardinals.

The toughest match-up of all? This week versus the Titans. Tennessee handed Jacksonville their butts and probably have a lot of confidence heading into San Francisco. The Niners have to win this game to build some confidence of their own, because another gut-wrenching loss is going to deflate this team entirely. Here’s my take on the remainder of the sked:

Vs. TEN W20-10
Vs. CHI W24-21
@ GB W30-24
Vs. JAX W17-3
@ SEA W17-13
Vs. ARI L21-20
@ PHI L35-17
Vs. DET W20-0
@ STL W17-14

That puts us at 10-6, but the loss to Arizona means we’ll need them to fudge else where a few times to get us as the West Champs. I’m not sure if 10-6 will be good enough for a WC berth or not, but I’ll be fine with 10-6.

by Andrew Davidson on Nov 3, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Two good points

About GB and Tennessee. We’ll have ten days to rest and prepare for the Packers who will have just played the Cowboys. Their poor line play and dfensive mistakes make them ripe for being defeated. Plus, if you’re Alex Smith don’t you look forward to a chance to beat Aaron Rodgers?

As for Tennesssee, we should certainly win which is a change from the past few games. How these players respond to playing a lesser team when we haven’t won in a month will be big. Will they be as focused? Clean up self-inflicted mistakes? Continue developing continuity on offense? This game finishes the first half of the season and could springboard us into the second half (Where we went 5-3 last season).

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 3, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Schedule Predicting for a different team...

the Panthers. Obviously, I think most of us are thrilled that they beat the Cardinals to help us out this week despite the fact that we have their first round pick and so, obviously, we want them to lose as much as possible. And it actually made me a little worried— what if the Cardinals didn’t lay an egg, but the Panthers actually turned a corner?

So I took a look at Carolina’s remaining schedule, and folks, it’s not good. For them, I mean. For Niners fans, it’s a thing of beauty. Take a look at this for Carolina the rest of the way:

@New Orleans
Atlanta
Miami
@New York Jets
Tampa Bay
@New England
Minnesota
@New York Giants
New Orleans

Looking at that schedule, obviously the Tampa game stands out as fairly reasonable. But I don’t think it’s entirely out of the realm of possibility that the Panthers could lose EVERY other game on that list. That would make them 4-12 for the year and would, obviously, give us a damn good pick, definitely top-10 and quite possibly top-5.

Now, that said, I’m sure they’ll surprise us and win a game or two that, on paper, doesn’t look too good for them. For instance, the last game of the year against the Saints could be much easier than it looks because New Orleans might have everything locked up by then and rest it’s starters. Atlanta, Miami, and the Jets all seem like teams that could have a bad week and lay an egg like the Cardinals did last weekend.

But it’s unlikely that ALL those things would happen. Frankly, I don’t see a way Carolina can finish better than 6-10… which would be a very good thing indeed.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Nov 3, 2009 1:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

*meant to say that the Tampa game was fairly winnable, not reasonable.

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Nov 3, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

concur...

whole-heartedly with the basic conclusion of your predictions. just think they’ll end up tied at 9-7 rather than 10-6. have to account for some BS loss for both teams. after all, ARI and SF haven’t exactly been the best “down the stretch” teams the past several seasons.

by Florida Danny on Nov 3, 2009 1:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

let's hope that BS loss

is not @ Seattle, because that would be awful.

by Andrew Davidson on Nov 3, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tennessee may be turning a corner...

let’s hope we can catch them before they hit their stride. AZ may catch a good Titan team in week 12.

by shulkdog on Nov 3, 2009 3:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

That reminds me of one of my favorite Hedburgisms:

I was watching TV and they were advertising a boxing match and it said “a fight to the finish!” I thought, that’s a good place to stop.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Nov 3, 2009 4:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

3rd Down

We have to watch V Young on those 3rd and long plays. He has the ability to scramble for the 1st down. I was hoping they did not change till after we played them. Going to be a great game.

Let's get the division!

by chriscream on Nov 3, 2009 7:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I love speculation..

Makes it that more interesting here after everyone guesses wrong.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 4, 2009 12:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs


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