Part 1: What Has Gone Right!! Followed Later By Parts 2 and 3.
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 3, 2009 1:49 PM PST
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At 3-4 and one game out of first place heading into week 9 the 49ers face a must win game against Tennessee. As a prelude to this all important match up i have decided to take a look at what has gone right, what has gone wrong and what needs to be changed in order for the 49ers to win the NFC West this season.
What has gone right
1. Surprising play of the defense: Obviously Patrick Willis leads the way as our only pro bowl lock. But instead of stating the obvious i am going to point out some other sectors of the defense that has led the way. FS- Dashon Goldson: Many of your chastised me for saying that he will contend for a pro bowl in his 1st season as a starter, but this is exactly what he has done. Singletary has passed over the head set from Willis to Goldson, this only furthering my opinion regarding the playmaking safety. 46 tackles, sack, inf and ff through 7 games. He is playing at an all-pro level despite a few lapses on coverage. CB- Shawntae Spencer: No one on this site really question Singletary's decision to go with the injury prone corner over Dre Bly, and that just shows how informative members of this site are. He is the closest thing that we have to a shutdown cornerback. He continues to make plays on the ball and looks comfortable on an island in single coverage. What a great surprise he has been. DE- Ray McDonald: I look forward to this up and coming end get more playing time as the season goes on, maybe even at the expense of Soap. He deserves it, in a part time role McDonald has recorded 3 sacks, he may fit in the role of a pass rushing specialist in our 3-4, time will tell. DT- Aubrayo Franklin: I believe he is playing as good as any NT in the entire league, leading one of the best rush defenses in the NFL Franklin continues to improve game in and game out. If it wasn't for a lack of name recognition he would get a pro bowl look. The 16 tackles and 2 sacks really don't tell the story.
2. Michael Crabtree, yes Michael Crabtree: After missing the 1st five games all Crabtree has done is come in and have the two best receiving games of any 49ers WR's this season, this in his first 2 NFL games. He is looking like the real deal and an absolute superstar. Yes he has made a couple mistakes, fumbling the ball on a crucial drive and dropping a bubble screen, but both are things he will improve on as the season continues. It is possible that despite missing the 1st 5 games Crabtree could end up with 60 receptions and 700 yards. That is way above the expectations any of us had for him
3. Environment Around The Team: I know this one if random considering the 49ers have lost 3 in a row and 4 of the last 5. But when was the last time the 49ers went into every game expecting to win? All NFL teams hope to win, but only the good one expect to win. Considering our 4 losses have come against teams with a combined 23-7 record i am hardly dismayed by the 3-4 record. They just need to learn how to close games, we lead most of the time against two of the leagues best teams on the road to end up losing by a combined 7 points. In the past these were games that they 49ers were blown away by halftime. The 49ers righted the ship following a horrendous 6 quarters in which we were outscored 66-10 only to come back strong in the 2nd half against Houston and play right with Indianapolis. The atmosphere at 4949 Centennial BLVD has complete changed from this time last season despite only being 1 game better.
4. Alex Smith: Many of us viewed him as a bust just a month ago, some of us even mentioned the fact that we could release him without a salary cap hit following the season. What has changed since then? Though still skeptical Alex Smith has showed a pocket presence, confidence and knowledge of the off-season i haven't seen from a 49ers QB since Jeff Garcia. Added to this is the obvious talent he has in the ability to make pretty much every throw on the field, arm strength and scrambling ability. The next few games will be telling but i am confident that Smith will breakout and become the "franchise" QB we had all hope he would.
Am i being overly optimistic? Maybe. But i have been watching the 49ers since i was in diapers so i have a pretty good grasp of this franchise. They are turning the corner, and despite 3 consecutive losses they are still only 1 game out of first place and as a team have shown a confidence i haven't seen since the start of this decade.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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There are things I like and things I don't like
I like that we can hang with some of the best teams in the league, and even lead them. I don’t like that we can’t finish games the way we start them.
I don’t like the big play mistakes that we have. Our defense will do great most of the time and then on a 3rd and long give up 30 yards. This mentality affects all aspects of our game. I also don’t like that we still haven’t opened up the play book. We can put together one or two really great drives per game and that’s it.
If we expect to be a championship team we have to develop the killer instinct and eliminate the mental errors.
That said I still expect us to go 10-6 this year and win the NFC West.
Surprises to me
I think the players that have surprised me most are Franklin, Crabtree, and Smith.
My push for a true multi-gap 3-4 NT around these parts is pretty well documented, and I thought Franklin was a pretty big waste of space. While he’s far from being anything close to being an elite 3-4 NT, he’s definitely shown that he’s capable of playing the position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers looked to retain him after this season (I’m pretty sure he’s a pending UFA), but I hope they also keep in mind that this year could very well be an aberration and that they’d still need an NT for the future (I still don’t think Sopoaga or Balmer can be that guy).
Crabtree surprising me sort of surprises me. Leading up to the draft, I was saying that Crabtree would never fall to the 49ers and that if he did they should take him. I believed, at the time, that he is/was an extremely special talent (even if he isn’t built like a prototypical #1), and that passing on him would be a big FAIL. So the 49ers drafted him and all is well right? Not exactly. I didn’t think he’d produce much of anything considering he signed so late in the season. The fact he’s lead the team’s WRs in receptions each of the last two games is VERY encouraging. I’m looking forward to his play with each passing week.
Lastly, it absolutely surprises me how Alex Smith has responded to his “second” chance. While he didn’t light up the skies in the Colts game, there were things he did in that game that fans previously could only hope/dream to see. His confidence seems to be at an all-time high, and with him calling some plays from the line of scrimmage, it shows that maybe he’s finally understanding his offensive scheme.
Like nocal81 points out, I could be extremely rosy in the above comments, but it’s kind of how I see those players right now.
Frank the Tank
Here’s hoping he stays—even if it’s only as a back-up/transition to…Mount Cody!
Morgan breaks through in 2009!
Frank the Tank
I call Gore that all the time. I’m not sure I like it as Franklin’s nickname, too.
I Agree
I think Smith is about ready to break out against Tennessee and the 49ers offense should be opened up to see what happens, especially playing against an inferior opponent.
I was jumping up and down when Crabtree fell to us at 10, and at this point i am as happy as i was in April. His upside is limitless.
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 3, 2009 5:49 PM PST up reply actions
Alex has been the biggest surprise to me. And I can't grasp the Goldson or Spencer analysis, at least I don't agree.
Spencer has been our most consistent player in the D-Backfield, no question, but I think Goldson has been the biggest let down since he has had so many plays go right in front of his face for TD and since he’s never around the ball when teams are passing for 300 plus yards (games are minimal, I know). His stats are similar to other FS’s in the league so a pro bowl bid could happen but not due to a stellar performance. The FS position is based on stats…. Tkls, INT’s, FF, PD, and sacks. The best statistical output is by Darius Byrd who has 7 int’s and he’s a rookie. I am not a fan of Goldson at all. Spencer was torched by the colts, #87 had 12 catches for 100 plus, but I am not sure how many times he has been matched up with a teams best WR, but he is burnt quite often.
Now other than those two I think you are spot on and this was a great post, I wish I could have sent you the one I posted and kinda mixed it in to reserve space.
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
I am not a fan of Goldson at all.
Me either, at least not at FS. I think he could definitely be better at SS, as he seems to like to bit on the play action quite a bit and LOVES to lay the hat on someone. If only Reggie Smith wasn’t severely hurt…
I Did Say
That Goldson has had some mental lapses, but that does come with inexperience. Maybe i am basing my all-pro theory on his talent level less production, but i am encouraged by how he has played minus a few plays here and there.
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 3, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
But he rarely makes plays!
Maybe it’s Manusky not puting him in the position to make plays, but for the last 3 weeks we have been torched in the air and he has 1 PD in that stretch, he’s not a ball hawk, but he is a solid tackler and maybe more serviceable as a SS. He just isn’t making plays!
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
Don't fire Raye.
This is my reason why, right now Alex Smith is playing like he hasn’t played in a long time, so to fire Raye would be a bad idea since Smith would have to learn another system, and Davis is FINALLY producing and that should open things up for our wr’s, so i say just keep Raye and Smith together and keep putting the pieces around him to help him keep blossoming. GO 49ers
Good post
The biggest surprise to me is McDonald. I would like to see more plays out of him as the season goes by. Not sure why he doesn’t get more time as it is. I guess they just let Sopoaga wear em down to set up McDonald to come in there and knock em down.
Notable mention for me: Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree
Biggest disappointment: Manny Lawson….I just expected more from him in the pass rush. Maybe he’ll come along toward the end of the season. Who knows…
And I am surprised that there was no mention of Vernon Davis in this post. I think we all expected him to do well but he is far exceeding any expectations I had of him. He’s definitely in the top 3 TE’s in the NFL right now in my opinion. If he keeps it up he may just be the #1 TE at the end of the season.
Owen Daniels and Dallas Clark are the only two Tight Ends
with more receiving yards than him and Daniels is out for the year. He leads all receivers with 7 TDs on the year. I’d say he’s definitely got to have serious consideration for the number one tight end in the league right now, never mind at the end of the season.
It'd be classless to go over to the Texans blog and post about that, right?
Sorry… I’ll stop. Or at least, I’ll try to stop.
And, ummm… there are 7 TEs with more yards and 7 TEs with more catches. I have no idea where you got that “two” number…
He’s getting there, but he needs a few 100+ yard days and/or a few more multi-TD games to be considered truly elite. Right now, Dallas Clark is far and away the best. After that, there is a big group of “has beens” and “up and comers.” Granted, if VD throws up 16 TDs this year, that’ll get plenty of deserved recognition.
As an aside, after two career games, Crabtree has the 19th most yards per game in the NFL. Tiny, tiny sample size, but still very promising for a guy who missed camp and the first 5 weeks… I still want to see him show some speed.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 3, 2009 10:53 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think Clark would be as successful w/o Manning, he is far from the best in the league.
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
If not Clark
Then who? Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez by default, even though they’re on down years (I suspect that defenses have learned how to defend Antonio and/or don’t have to deal with the constant threat of an LDT)? Owen frigging Daniels? Brent Celek? Vernon Davis?
Face it, Clark is the best. Football is about 11 guys. Celek is made better by Donnovan McNabb. Gates by Rivers. Daniels by Shaub. All these guys have good QBs throwing to them. It’s not like anybody is catching 400 yards and 7 TDs from guys like Alex Smith or Shaun Hill! Wait…
But seriously, these guys are getting passes thrown to them because they’re good TEs. Manning makes Clark better, Clark makes Manning better.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions
I'm gonna say Davis over Clark simply because of your statement. Owen Daniels is also better.
Gates is on a down year because his OL isn’t what it used to be and face it the HC couldn’t get production from V Davis. There is a lot to consider when talking about it, which of these TE’s could do what Clark does or better with P Manning?
He does have great hands(Clark) but he isn’t asked to block much and we are talking about all around TE, right? I wouldn’t vote Clark, and I doubt he makes manning better. Celek, Davis, Gonzalez, Gates, Scheffler, Miller, Witten, and Daniels would put up the same numbers with Manning!
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
I doubt Daniels blocks either
Clark is very good. He may be in a fortunate situation, but if it was entirely the Manning effect, he’d have been this successful from the get go. He wasn’t. He had some decent years, looked pretty good, but in the last three years, he’s turned it on. Nothing has changed in his system, he’s just improved. This year you could say “No Harrison,” but he caught 1,500 yards and 17 TDs in Harrison’s last two years. That’s serious production from the TE spot, and seriously better than he’d been before.
There’s certainly something to be said for blocking, and I’ll freely admit that don’t know much about that aspect of things. I usually watch the ball… and I don’t watch replays of entire games.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
Davis Is The Best All-Around TE In Football At This Point
I don’t think we should really add Clark to this discussion, he is one dimensional and has the best QB since Montana throwing to him. Jason Witton is an absolute beast but he doesn’t block that well neither does Owen Daniels. Despite being good blockers Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates are no where near that level regarding that. As to Davis, he leads the NFL in touchdown receptions, is the best blocking TE in football and has been under utilized in a conservative offense. To me his is the best at his position in the entire league.
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 4, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
the best QB since Montana throwing to him.
I know a lot of fanbases that would disagree with you on that one. San Francisco, Green Bay, and New England come off the top of my head immediately…
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 4, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
Lawson
I know it’s your personal opinion and I don’t want to get into an argument about it, but I’m just curious what made you believe Lawson would be a better pass rusher?
I know the media and stuff continually say that he was drafted to supply a pass rush, but I don’t think that was the case at all. I think the 49ers drafted Lawson to be a less-versatile version of Julian Peterson. By “less-versatile,” I’m saying that he has the pass coverage skills but not the pass rush skills. If the 49ers REALLY wanted him to be their pass rusher, they wouldn’t have lined him up as the strong-side OLB early in his career and lined him up on the weak-side and just let it fly. Instead, they stressed coverage for him, and that’s what he’s kind of developed into.
Again, I know it’s your opinion, so I don’t want to get into a huge discussion over it. I’m just curious, is all.
Lawson
doesn’t fit our 3-4 scheme well. They asked him to do different things then what many said he was drafted to do. It’s time the 49ers let him do the OLB 3-4 thing or move him to a team that fits his skill set better, a 4-3 defense. Lawson is a pretty darn good football player
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 4, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
Fit into scheme well question?
I agree with sfgfan that Lawson was drafted to play the Julian Peterson role. Believed it to be the case when the team drafted him and how they have gone about developing him as he broke down.
Yes, Lawson doesn’t fit the conventional 3-4 OLB model but I’d argue every team has their own unique flavor and twist to the defense. I do feel the 49ers rely on Lawson versatility and coverage skills to throw something different at offenses. They make up for his lack of pass rush and emphasis, by relying on Smith and McDonald to generate more pressure on the inside.
I think the feelings towards Lawson would be vastly different if the 49ers had a great pass rusher to line up on the opposite side. Teams and analysts would praise Lawson’s skillset because he provides a unique ying and yang aspect to the position and defense. If the 49ers went after a pass rusher, I think Haralson’s spot would be more vulnerable than Lawson’s.
Lawson has played far better than Haralson
He has made some plays that don’t get on the stat sheet, Haralson has done neither.
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
Lawson
No way Lawson has played better than Haralson. Haralson has been getting doubled on pass rushes and has been marginally better in coverage than Lawson. Haralson is a way more complete LB than Lawson. You through Brooks in there or Briggs and they aon’t do any better of a job.
I would like to see Briggs get some playing time over Lawson. He is definitely the weakest link out of the 4 starting LB’s. I have watched every game more than once and Lawson is not a very good LB right now
I've watched every game as well and when I see Haralson one on one
He doesn’t get the job done either. Lawson needs to put on more weight and he’ll be more effective as a pass rusher since he doesn’t have size to get good leverage, meaning he’s tall and it is more difficult to get leverage in his favor. I think Brooks did well when he has played but his playing time is next to none.
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
Lawson Is A Pretty Good Player
His strengths are not what our defensive scheme needs right now. Maybe with some coaching, or as lott said by putting on some more weight he would be more effective. I am just saying he isn’t as bad as Drew is making him out to be.
Regarding Haralson, he is seeing more double teams or blocking schemes directed his way due to the lack of a pass rush from the other side. Great players overcome that but as of now Haralson is just a good player with a chance to become elite.
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 5, 2009 7:08 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah
Vernon Davis really did escape my mind, i guess because i always thought he was this good. But thanks for adding that
"Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win!!!"
by nocal81(Vincent) on Nov 4, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
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