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Mike Singletary Monday lunchtime press conference: Jaguars edition

We're back for another Mike Singletary Monday morning press conference, live at 49ers.com starting at 11:45 am.  The 49ers are coming off a big win over the Jaguars yesterday that combined with the Arizona loss (man, Vince Young owns Matt Leinart) leaves the 49ers two games out of first place.  If the 49ers can win at Seattle and Arizona loses at home to Minnesota we'll have a MNF showdown in two weeks for first place.  Given that, I would expect Mike Singletary to possibly discuss the idea of not looking ahead and falling prey to the dreaded trap game.  It's definitely an important concern, even with the normally solid rivalry the 49ers have with the Seahawks.

Beyond that, I'd imagine there will be plenty of questions about the spread offense and use of the shotgun so prominently yesterday.  Some of the post-game quotes by Singletary mentioned how the players "took ownership" of the offense and were speaking with Singletary and Raye.  There will certainly be an assortment of questions about that.

If you have some free time, feel free to head over to 49ers.com to watch the press conference beginning at 11:45.

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very good feed this week

i usually have tons of streaming issues, but right now its flowing very well! (knock on wood)

by renke81 on Nov 30, 2009 12:00 PM PST reply actions  

TWSS!

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

First time he has shown any emotion toward what other teams in the division did

He said “that’s pretty cool” in reference to the Cardinals losing and said that “we still have time to do what we want to do.”

by renke81 on Nov 30, 2009 12:08 PM PST reply actions  

For the first time I think Sing finally gets it

the short passing game can take pressure off and in some cases even replace the running game. just wish it had been a few weeks earlier

by sactownbull on Nov 30, 2009 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

They just need to remember...

that the running game is what beat the Seachickens the first time around. I know the line is in disarray with injuries and whatnot, but they should still be able to run pretty well on Sunday. Avoid turnovers and the game should be a double digit win.

by sanfranfanmdk on Nov 30, 2009 12:36 PM PST reply actions  

I also agree with avoiding the trap...

If the Niners can remain focused and have a good game plan, it will be Seachicken sandwiches all around! I like mine with bbq sauce and ranch dressing lol

by sanfranfanmdk on Nov 30, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

yes

Before we think about monday night, lets remember that this team has not won a road game since week 1. Though, given the level of opposition, one can argue that we’ve played better on the road than at home

by Rep the Bay on Nov 30, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

don't sell yourself short...

it’s only minimally arguable because the stats show pretty clearly you’re right.

so far this year, niners home DVOA = -7.3%; niners road DVOA = +2.3%. so, the niners, as a team, are about 10% more effecient on the road then at home.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

yay meaningless splits!

of course their toughest opponents have all been on the road, too.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree about not using the trap

Seeing Gore in a dress keeps giving me nightmares…

….

So I’m an idiot. Don’t say that thought never crossed your mind.

by Ovalshine on Nov 30, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Point taken

Yeah you’re right. They managed to move the ball yesterday and look what happened with their 3rd down efficiency, went from 27% a week ago to 50% yesterday. Sing’s realizing it now, but hey, it’s only his first full year. It’s only one game, but I think this might be the beginning of at least a chance for better things to come.

by Mangoman1 on Nov 30, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Some good stats there.

Rec.

"This could be another Very Special Team" ... Superbowl winning Niners lineman Dan Audick ...

by LondonNiner on Nov 30, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

yes and no...

having a run game sure helps Brett Favre and the Vikings this year. In some ways you can’t really separate them. If Favre did not have the oline he has and the strong running threat, he might be pressing a more. Maybe his int’s would be up, etc.

I agree with your basic point: that a strong passing attack is essential to winning consistently. However, if people are afraid of your run, you get to pass against base defenses more; if they are afraid of your passing game, you get to run into nickles, etc….

Anyway, interesting post and I like this point: “…ESPN piece proving that the productivity of any running back on a team is almost entirely dependent on the team’s offensive line.”

Our game planning is definitely constrained by our current, and temporary, oline situation, and our running game is dramatically diminished. No doubt of that.

by zacksf on Nov 30, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

not trying to be a contrarian here, but...

couldn’t one just as easily argue that yesterday’s game proved singletary’s “offensive strategy” was not so closely held? i mean, i’ve been detailing stats every week since smith took over that show they need to put him in a patriot/colts-esque “shotgun every play” kind of pass-first offense that uses the pass to set up the run rather than vice versa. so, i think it actually is a testament to singletary (and — vomiting in mouth — raye) that he’s as flexible about his “offensive strategy” as he is…to me, i already knew passing is what wins, and i already knew that the OFF they showed vs. JAX was the one they should have been running since the HOU game. but i’m not the coach, so i’m not the one that can do anything about it. he’s the coach, he’s the one that can either say “it’s my way or the highway” or “this is the right thing to do,” and there’s a graveyard full of head coaches (see Nolan, Mike) who stubbornly did the same thing over and over again when the fans, the media, the opponent, and everyone else knew that the best thing for the team was the exact opposite of what the coach was doing.

so, just to conclude my rant here, i think singletary’s “offensive strategy,” like he said at the end of the presser, all along has been “whatever it takes to win.” at the beginning of the season, he looked at the team and saw a winning, incumbent QB who couldn’t throw farther than 10 yards, a 50-year old #1 WR, and a 2nd-year late-rd pick at #2 WR, and said to himself, “self, frank gore and vernon davis are the only playmakers on my offense, so let’s play a run-oriented style w/ play-action to VD, and let the single best player on our team, patrick willis, and our defense win ball games for us.” now, he sees a starting QB with an arm, who plays better when he’s in the shotgun, a new #1 WR who’s got some serious talent, a TE who leads the league in TD receptions, and a running game that’s actually better since they’ve been using more shotgun. so he switches to an offensive style that fits that talent. so to say that his “offensive strategy” is this or that and say that the JAX game proved singletary, specifically, wrong, is missing the forest for the trees. not to mention the fact that he’s been saying all along that fans/media weren’t right to say he wants “3 yards and a cloud of dust.” every presser, he’s said over and over that that isn’t his philosophy.

so really, point is — and i know it’s taken a while to get there — that to single out singletary’s “offensive strategy” here is a strawman argument. he’ll do whatever it takes on offense to win, and that’s what he’s said all along. when he thought running would give them a better chance of winning (i.e., before the influx of talent in the HOU game), he wanted a conservative, run-first offense. now, after crabtree and smith have become starters (which were his decisions by the way), he thinks an aggressive, shotgun passing offense gives them a better chance to win, and is adapting accordingly. i’d much rather thave that in a head coach than a guy like nolan who the whole world is telling him what’s wrong with his strategy, and he refuses to change it (see Big Sub, “The Hybrid,” Jim Hostler, J.T. O’Sullivan, Mark Roman, etc., etc.). for this pragmatism and flexibility, singletary deserves mad props, not to be made into a strawman.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

p.s.

please don’t accuse me of being some kind of blind singletary acolyte. anyone who’s read my posts knows that i’ve been ripping the coaches to shreds recently for not doing more of what they now conclude needs to be done on offense.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Great post(s)...

The only thing Singletary has done with the offense is pull his head out of his rear end. That deserves some credit, but it also hows me how he underestimated part of the offense.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 30, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I actually think

it’s shocking how fast the coaching staff turned their ideas on it’s head. Coaches – particularly head coaches (in all sports, really) are a notoriously close-minded, reactionary bunch. Basically because if you get cute and lose, then you get fired. But if you are conventional and lose, it’s the player’s fault.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Well..

I think they are a bit under the gun, and when everybody else, including players, media, and fans can see that the shotgun pass offense is the only thing that works on offense, well, if they still were stubborn with the old conservative offense and lost, heads would have rolled.

I don’t find panic shocking at all.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 30, 2009 8:28 PM PST up reply actions  

funny...

how it took 5 years for heads to roll when nolan did just that. i think, at this pont in his tenure, singletary probably has a lot of leeway to screw things up ala nolan. if he continued to be stubborn, ala nolan, say 2 years from now, then he might get the axe for it, ala nolan.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 1, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Pff

everyone knows you’re just a homer. One of those guys who does everything he can to bend and twist the stats to make the team look better than it is.

=P

Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl

by Viliphied on Nov 30, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions  

No more important

Rant is well taken. It’s not really about pass more important than run or vice versa. Personally it’s about (isn’t this a line from Mr. Miyagi in The Karate Kid?) balance. I saw a great example of it when I was watching (don’t ask me why, it was late, I’m a UH fan) the Navy vs. Hawaii game last Saturday. Essentially Hawaii beat a team known to have a high powered offense, but Navy’s lack of balance didn’t allow them to get down the field when it counted near the end of the game with no timeouts. For those that don’t know, Navy runs a triple option, 90-95% running offense. Long story short, when they needed to put up the ball, they couldn’t tell their heads from their A#*es. Their QB got sacked twice in a row to end the game.

But it’s all about using the talent that you’ve got to its fullest and doing whatever you need to do to get the ball downfield. I think Sing has successfully swallowed his pride and is hopefully moving forward.

by Mangoman1 on Nov 30, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah...

notwithstanding my rant, i totally agree with you, obviously on the merits. just didn’t think it was accurate (or fair) to say that “singletary’s philsophy” was proven wrong by the JAX game. if singletary were nolan, who actually did have a “philosophy” that clouded his ability to solve any problem with the offense or defense, the JAX game strategy and performance would have never happened. so whatever could be ascribed to singletary as being “his philosophy” couldn’t have been held more strongly by singletary than the “whatever it takes to win” philosophy that the JAX game actually proved he had.

like i said, totally thankful to have singletary as head coach for this very reason. in the fight between ideology and pragmatism, i’ll take pragmatism every time.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

On the contrary..

Nolan changed the offensive philosophy when he hired Martz. It just didn’t work.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 30, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions  

About the Titans...

They’re 5-0 since Vince Young took over and their rushing attack got better. Running is just as important as passing and both can win ballgames when used at the right times.

Keep in mind that the stats you put were in complete reverse the previous year. It can revert to run dominance next year.

None of this has anything to do with the Niners, however. Our problem stemmed from giving Norv Turner too much credit. In 2007 and most of this year, we placed too much focus on what worked under Turner that it wasn’t seen that what worked under Turner cannot work now. Turner gave us the mindset that the offense needed to revolve around Frank Gore. I think any time you revolve an offense around one player, your success is limited.

With help from Smith, Davis and Crabtree’s discussions with Singletary, it’s now seen that the team does not revolve around Gore, it revolves around more.

I’m such a poet. :-)

by Ovalshine on Nov 30, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Running is not just as important as passing. If that were the case, the Vikings would have been 10-1 at this time last season.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

But they woudn't be 10-1

if they didn’t have Peterson, either. It works both ways.

by Ovalshine on Nov 30, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Admittedly, that wasn’t a fair comment on my part.

Now, there is compelling statistical evidence to support that passing is more important, and football outsiders has dome some exhaustive research which shows that the biggest indicator for team success is improvement in either passing offense or passing defense. However, a much simpler way to look at it is like this:

How many touchdowns does a team score in a year?
How many of those can you credit to the running game?
How many of those can you credit to the passing game?

Yes, a good running game supports a good passing game, but therein lies the rub doesn’t it? A good passing game has never supported a good running game. We’ve seen that teams can be at least moderately successful with only a strong passing game to rely on. We have never seen a team be successful without a strong passing game unless every other corner of the team was absolutely stellar.

Passing is much, much more related to the overall success of a team than any any other single area of a football team. Even anecdotal and visual evidence supports that.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions  

And please don’t take it as absolute when I used the word “never.” It’s a strong word, and it technically does denote an absolute, but we all know that I don’t mean it in absolute terms.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I would also say that more non-advanced-stat support for it has to do with the replaceability of running backs as opposed to quarterbacks.

Good teams routinely change running backs. Part of that has to do with the short lifespan of a running back, but part of it also has to do with the running game being somewhat less critical to overall success. If you look at teams that have been successful over long stretches of time, you’re likely to see maybe two quarterbacks that they had in that span of time, tops. But if you look at the number of running backs they had, it’s probably much more diverse.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions  

For example: During the period that the 49ers had Montana and Young (roughly 20 years), here’s the list of the number of runners they had finish the end of any given season as the leading rusher.

Ricky Patton
Jeff Moore
Wendell Tyler
Roger Craig
Dexter Carter
Keith Henderson
Ricky Watters
Derek Loville
Terry Kirby
Garrison Hearst.

That’s a 5/1 ratio.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

since you bring it up...

…the more and more immersed i am in football stat analysis and sport psychology, the more and more i realize how bill walsh somehow figured everything out without (a) doing stat analyses, or (b) taking courses in sport psychology. i mean, it’s as if he knew it all already. basically, everything about everything he did was perfectly accordant with what geeks like me go around proclaiming are the best strategies/philosophies to have in football, whether we’re talking from a physical, tactical, social, or psychological perspective. it really is amazing to me how spot on he was about everything without even knowing it, and it kind of explains why basically everything he touched turned to gold.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

i should add...

it also makes me realize that it’s totally unrealistic for niner fans to be reminiscing like grumpy old men about “getting back to the way things were in the 80s.” the niners would have to be incredibly lucky to find another bill walsh in the next 100 years of their existence. it’s not something magical about the WCO that will spontaneously turn the niners into winners. they won in th 80s because they had a single once-in-a-lifteime absolute genius, bill walsh, with his hands touching every aspect of the franchise.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Quite accurate

On both counts.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 30, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Don't forget Harvin

His running, receiving and KO returns for scores and better field position was not their last year and they’d likely have at least two fewer wins without him.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 30, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions  

And like I said below, it’s not about the running game being unimportant, it’s about the passing game being more important.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I'll remain in disagreement to you there

I simply do not place the pass above the run nor run over pass. You can win with the running game and that has been proven many times in the past and will in the future. Your point holds just as true, but in the end, you go with what wins you games.

by Ovalshine on Nov 30, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, I won’t try to convince you any further. I agree that you can win with the running game and I agree that the running game is important. I also believe that it’s easier to win with the passing game and that the passing game is more important, for all of the reasons cited already. My opinion is shaped by statistical, anecdotal, and visual evidence which all suggest, and even sometimes demand that the simple fact is that you can do more to improve your team by fixing the passing game than by doing any other single thing. This same evidence supports my opinion just as strongly.

But you can have whatever opinion you want. I won’t argue with you. I’ll just disagree.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

And just to be perfectly, perfectly clear:

Although, I do think that the “passing is more important” argument does often get conflated with the “square peg in a circle hole” theory.

When I say that passing is more important, I am not – for instance – saying that the Dolphins need to start passing 60% of the time. That would be a terrible thing for them to do. Their passing game isn’t good. You won’t improve by passing more. You improve by passing better. And sometimes you can’t do that in-season. You don’t take the Dolphins, say that passing is more important than running, and then force Henne to chuck the ball 60 times a game. Absolutely not. Yes, passing is more important in my opinion, but you have to be able to do it first. You have to find a better option than Henne first, and then you can pass more. If you don’t have that option, dear god, don’t pass more!

But if it were the offseason and, hypothetically, a team’s payroll was such that had the choice between franchising a great running back or signing a great quarterback, but didn’t have the money to do both, I’d say screw the running back – lock down the passing game and pick up a scrub in the second round to run the ball.

So yes, absolutely, you do “go with what wins you games” with the pieces you have. But then, when you have the chance to improve the pieces that win you games, the best place to look is the passing game.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

in lieu of...

HTS continuing his attempt to convince you, i’ll take over the attempting. here are the pass OFF and run OFF DVOAs for every SB participant since the NFL went to its current alignment (better type of play in bold):

2008 – PIT pass = 12.9%, PIT run = 5.8%
2008 – ARI pass = 29.7%, ARI run = -9.6%
2007 – NYG pass = -3.0%, NYG run = 12.3%
2007 – NE pass = 75.4%, NE run = 20.4%
2006 – IND pass = 56.9%, IND run = 9.0%
2006 – CHI pass = -4.1%, CHI run = 5.0%
2005 – PIT pass = 35.1%, PIT run = 4.4%
2005 – SEA pass = 45.3%, SEA run = 20.3%
2004 – NE pass = 48.7%, NE run = 12.7%
2004 – PHI pass = 30.1%, PHI run = 9.2%
2003 – NE pass = 15.8%, NE run = -7.0%
2003 – CAR pass = -0.4%, CAR run = -3.8%
2002 – TB pass = 13.9%, TB run = -10.5%
2002 – OAK pass = 37.2%, OAK run = 23.6%

OK, to recap, 14 out of the 16 SB participants (and 6 out of the 7 champs) since realignment have had more efficient pass offenses than run offenses. so, i guess, the correct conclusion here is that, while you can win big being a better run offense than pass offense, you’re way more likely to, in fact, win big if your pass offense is better than your run offense. i guess the underlying point here is that this whole “run the ball and play defense” kind of mentality is a holdover from what used to win “back in the day.” not saying that’s why you believe it, but just saying…the facts are pretty clear on this. if you want to ignore the facts, that’s fine. i prefer facts over opinions (or anecdotes) when arguing a point.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 6:32 PM PST up reply actions  

i should add...

once again that i think it’s a total red herring to say singletary is an unwavering supporter of “run and play D.” i think his preference is for that if that’s what the talent on his teams dictates is the best chance for them to win, but you see right now how preferences change when the talent changes. even if you were to cite his “preference” as being the result of him playing on the best “run and play D” team of all time, i’d just remind you that, um, with walter payton at RB, and the unparalleled talent they had on D, the 80s bears were “run and play D” given the talent they had on their roster…exactly the same way that the 49ers were a passing team when they had joe montana and dwight clark/jerry rice. they would have been idiots to run the ball 40 times a game because of some “run-first” philosophy.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions  

CARLOLINA

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions  

ZOMG!!!

HW THA HLL DID THAY MAKE IT 2 DA SOOPER BOWL!?!?!?!?!

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 8:54 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL STATZ R USELESS

C UR STATZ SAID CARLOLINA SUCKEDDDD AND THEY WENT TO DA SUPA BOWL!!!!!!!!!

Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl

by Viliphied on Nov 30, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions  

BUT....

SHAWNZ HILL WAZ A WINNAR. HE WAZ ARE FUTURZ.

by Brendan Scolari on Nov 30, 2009 11:54 PM PST up reply actions  

once again...

stats guy shows he can’t do math…i meant 12 of the14 SB participants, not 14 of the 16. derrrrr!

while i’m here, might as well add that, for what it’s worth, the average Pass OFF DVOA for the 14 tms was 28.1%, whereas their average Rush OFF DVOA was 6.5%. so, on average, if you want to be an SB participant please have a pass OFF that’s over 4 times as efficient as your run OFF (p.s. i already know that’s waaaaay too simplistic of a “recipe for SB participation”). Niners current balance: pass OFF = -3.5%; run OFF = -5.3%. so, if they can get that pass OFF up to around +15%-ish, then they could be a contenda!

oh, and also, here are the teams that are currently at least 4 times more efficient on pass OFF than rush OFF (in order of overall OFF DVOA ranking):

NE
IND
NO
SD
MIN
ARI
HOU
PIT
NYG
CIN
DEN

current combined record of 11 teams listed above = 86-35 (71.1% winning percentage)
number of division leaders among 11 teams listed above = 7 (of 8 total divisions)
number of division leaders in the top 8 in Pass OFF DVOA = 7
number of division leaders in the first 6 teams listed above = 6

so, yeah, um…being a better running team than passing team makes you more likely to be a winning team…yeah…right…exactly.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Dec 1, 2009 12:39 AM PST up reply actions  

You have to figure in...

Just how much Singletary wanted to hide his QB’s, rather than exploit them. To me, he’d rather hide them.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Dec 1, 2009 1:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Again, though, we’re talking about an ideal formula. You can’t force certain personnel to be four times better at passing. But you need to try to collect personnel on offense that does have that level of efficiency. Maybe with Shaun Hill it was the right choice to try to hide the QB. Maybe now with Alex Smith it’s the right choice to start creating opportunities for the QB (which we’re doing now).

If anything, it’s the 49ers’ inability to do this with the personnel or schemes they’ve had or been using respectively that has kept them from being competitive in recent years. But you can’t put a square peg in a circle hole. You just try to change that damn peg.

Alex Smith did a lot to change that peg this season, but I think we’d all be foolish to expect him to put up a 27 DVOA for the rest of the year. Not that I’d complain if he did.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Dec 1, 2009 8:07 AM PST up reply actions  

What happened in 2003?

How did Carolina manage to win in 2003 with DVOA’s like those?? Sorry rhetorical question. But yeah I guess the higher pass DVOA historically wins out. I still don’t think one is more important than the other though per se . It’s about making the most of what you have whatever the situation may be.

by Mangoman1 on Dec 1, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions  

This is the problem I was talking about.

You don’t fit your personnel to try to win by passing. You try to get personnel that CAN win by passing.

The idea that passing is more important is not about what you do with a particular roster. It’s about how you roster build.

When you say “I still don’t think one is more important than the other though per se. It’s about making the most of what you have whatever the situation may be,” you’re falling into a major, major trap.

The teams that have the personnel to be successful passing teams are the teams that are winning the most often. There is no real way to argue that. It is what’s happening, and it’s what’s been happening for a decade-plus. Success in the NFL comes through the passing game.

But if your team is not built to pass, that doesn’t mean you should try to pass.

It does mean you should try to build your team to pass.

Do you see the distinction?

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Dec 1, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions  

I hear ya

I understand what you’re saying. Call me a football moderate and a bit of an idealist. There’s no arguing what the DVOA’s say. However, even with a pass favored offense, it’s still nice to know that a team is as offensively balanced as possible. But hey it’s not a perfect world!

by Mangoman1 on Dec 1, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh, yeah. I mean you definitely want to be as good as you can be at every aspect of the game. You DO want a great running game. You DO want a great special teams. You DO want a great defense.

You just DO want a great passing game first, to make sure you don’t completely waste the rest of it.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Dec 1, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions  

nice counterargument...

…in re the vikes. they sure do seem like a “running team.”

but, to echo howtheyscored a bit, the reason MIN is 10-1 this year is because their Pass OFF DVOA went from -1.6% last season to currently 49.2% this season. and that’s because they have a competent QB now. furthermore, i won’t bore you with the details, but i did an analysis this offseason which showed pretty convincingly that the single-biggest DVOA predictor of year-to-year win change is an improvement in pass OFF. if we’re going to bring specific team examples from last year into play, see Dolphins, Ravens, Falcons as teams that got insanely better in the win column because they got light years more efficient play from the QB position.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Ha, was that your study about the single biggest DVOA predictor? I credited it to FO in my comment above. Whoopsie.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

haha...

no, actually, it’s pretty funny, though…and i really, sincerely, am not trying to name-drop here…it’s just speifically relevent to a discussion of pass vs. run in MIN…

but aaron @ FO e-mailed me when he was writing the MIN chapter of this year’s football prospectus and asked me what the model i just described above had to say about MIN because his stats were saying they were gonna be better than last year, and he just wanted to verify. well, at the time, this was pre-favre-signing, so my prediction wasn’t as good as his because there was no reason to believe their Pass OFF DVOA was going to improve all that much. the moment they signed him i was like, we’re gonna be right on this one because both our analyses independently predicted the same thing.

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Vikings have the record they do now

because they added Brett Favre. Plain and simple.

W/out Brett Favre they’re not 10-1

by smileyman on Nov 30, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Context

For this season you are accurate. Yet just last season the top 7 rushing yardage teams all made the playoffs, including three of the top four seeds, while only one of the top four made the playoffs. The team that won the SB was not in the top 15 of either.

Some of these things swing season to season so I’m not sure that any declarative statement about running or passing is accurate. For sure, if you play in outdoor stadiums that have awful winter weather or need to protect a bad defense, running is best. If your QB is your best player, you should certainly pass more than run. Looking at the last two SB losers, their inability to compliment their great passing games with any real threat of the run cost them a championship.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Nov 30, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, but it’s not about a running game being unimportant. It’s about the passing game being MORE important.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

You're absolutely right

A team can’t be great unless it has a good to great passing game. If all you have is rushing you won’t be able to win in this league.

by smileyman on Nov 30, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

To add on

Here’s an article (and a very cool dynamic graph you can play with) from Advanced NFL Stats that shows the correlation between different stats (passing efficency, run efficiency, net turnovers, defensive int rate, etc.) and winning. Offensive passing efficiency has a very strong correlation with winning, while running efficiency has almost zero correlation with winning. How well you pass the ball is the single biggest factor in how often you win, followed by how well you defend the pass.

by Brendan Scolari on Dec 1, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions  

not sure if someone's already suggested this, but...

can we have some kind of weekly count for singletary saying the phrase “[verb] their tails off?” watching the press conference now, and he actually held off until a few minutes in before saying the players are “working their tails off.” it’s like singletary co-opting “lookit” from nolan. definite drinking game or o/u as part of the game predictions. :-)

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 2:00 PM PST reply actions  

If I had a shot..

for every “standpoint” Nolan used, I would need a new liver.

Needless to say, I avoid Singletary’s pressers.

Well, we're waiting....

by drummer on Nov 30, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Does that weekly count include radio interviews? Because you can probably double or triple the number from his pressers if you include radio interviews.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

agreed...

and postame pressers too…

now that i think about it, you sound like the perfect person for a weekly singletary “tails off” post. :-)

by (Florida) Danny Tuccitto on Nov 30, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Fat chance! I’m barely keeping up with the prediction results threads right now. Deadlines looming everywhere for me, and not enough time in the day to meet them!

Which reminds me: Fooch: I’m hoping to get back to the Year-by-Years at least in a “week-to-week decision” way in the next couple of weeks. I’ll keep you posted.

I don't know about that, to the groin.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Sing's last comments secure a "yes" in this week's approval rating for me...

He talked about how he can just be stubborn and keep trying to be a physical run team but acknowledges it wasn’t working and has changed up the game plans. He finally admits it and proves that he is a flexible coach. IN SINGLETARY WE TRUST!

by we want foyle on Nov 30, 2009 2:26 PM PST reply actions  

Yup

He also said yesterday something to the effect that he was lending more of an ear to the players questions and suggestions. So I think we can see that he’s now going from being a coach to being a leader. He now seems to truly be taking heed of what his players’ strengths are

by Mangoman1 on Nov 30, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm going Yes in the Sing vote ...

… having boycotted for a few weeks. I couldn’t bring myself to vote No, but I’m returning to a Yes now. I’m fickle. I’m allowed to be, reserve the right to be. I’m a fan. In fact, I’m going to fickle my tail off, as Coach Sing (probably) would (not) say.

"This could be another Very Special Team" ... Superbowl winning Niners lineman Dan Audick ...

by LondonNiner on Nov 30, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Timing, why now?

“It’s just too bad it’s taken him so long to realize that.”
I know that is a popular sentiment sentiment: why didn’t Coach do this sooner?

Coach Singletary is a big man and he can take the heat for that, but
in my opinion, there were probably very good reasons for not doing “this” sooner.

by zacksf on Nov 30, 2009 2:46 PM PST reply actions  

reply

Make sure you use the reply button when responding to somebody’s specific comment.

by David Fucillo on Nov 30, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks Danny.

Good points. Personally, I think the timing of the offensive moves has been excellent. The timing and low-key way he worked Smith in, the quick entry of Crabtree, the gradual progression to more spread and more passing offfense.

I think the coach has a very good sense for timing and of what players are ready for and what they can and cannot do at a given point.

by zacksf on Nov 30, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Sing will continue to grow

I’m the Texas guy and Baylor guy who is now a 49er cause of Sing. Yesterday was a big step for him, and positive for the team.

He realized we are 4-6 and thus have to risk spread for rest of year. Plus, our strength now with Crab’s and weak OL is the pass. We have a spread QB, so we need to find out if he can be franchise QB. So we got to spread and if it works, we probably win division (I think it all comes down to that Monday night game). We also find out if we need to draft a QB in first round or can meet tackle needs as well as possible DL or secondary needs. After five more games we will know if Smith is for real or not.

At 4-6, he did smart thing. Check Smith out for future and role the dice on saving this season.

by Desperado18 on Nov 30, 2009 2:49 PM PST reply actions  

I think someone has to point out the turnover ratio and penalty ratio was in our favor yesterday… but watching the teams offense showed flashes of why Alex Smith was picked. He showed that, given time to throw, that he is a capable NFL quarterback. It was fun to watch a team take chances, and I think the Defense fed off of that. Watching your team make plays gets you amp’d up to go out on defense and hit someone.

by aBulldog on Nov 30, 2009 3:56 PM PST reply actions  

Offense gets points on the board

Agreed. Watch how just about every kicking team on any level of organized football acts after their offense has just scored a TD. They get a good hit on the KR and they act like they just won a championship. But yeah, a lot of times a good defense can seem to naturally compliment a good offense.

by Mangoman1 on Nov 30, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Kentwan Balmer queries:

Did anyone notice how he much and/or how well he played yesterday?
Any opinions on his progress in general and where that is going?
Can he play “outside” as well, or is he pretty much a NT?
Has he been playing at all in the base or nickle defenses?
(thanks)

by zacksf on Nov 30, 2009 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

his named was called a lot

by his standards. thought he was doing well. hope that he continues to progress as Franklin ages and seeks bigger contracts.

speaking of which, if Franklin goes down, my guess is that Sopoaga moves to NT and Balmer plays LE? Is that about right?

by Tre9er on Dec 1, 2009 6:29 AM PST up reply actions  

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