49ers-Titans: It's all about Chris Johnson

by Fooch on Nov 5, 2009 10:15 AM PST in Preview Comment 22 comments

I'd be intrigued to hear what others have to say, but I'm of the impression that the most important thing the 49ers need to accomplish this weekend is shutting down, or at least containing Titans running back Chris Johnson. If the 49ers can contain Johnson, the Titans will need to have Vince Young making plays. Of course maybe that makes Vinsanity the ultimate x-factor in this game. For now though, let's focus on Johnson.

Chris Johnson has obliterated any possibility of a sophomore slump as he is on pace to easily surpass his very impressive rookie season. Johnson currently leads the NFL with 824 yards, averaging a robust 6.9 yards per carry, and also leading the NFL with ten rushes of 20+ yards. Needless to say, Chris Johnson is rushing with a lot of confidence and is taking aim at 2,000 rushing yards. So there you have an irresistible force.

On the other side of the field, the 49ers roll out a rushing defense that leads the league in yards per carry allowed at 3.2. Often times this can be due to an abysmal pass defense. The 49ers pass defense has issues, but it's certainly not abysmal. Football Outsiders updated their unit rankings (Florida Danny will have more on that this week) and at this point, the 49ers rank third against the rush and 11th against the pass in terms of DVOA. So while the 49ers defense might not be #1 like Chris Johnson is #1, it is certainly turning into the proverbial immovable object.

So, as the classic question asks, what happens when the irresistible force meets the immovable object? Vince Young or Alex Smith could certainly go wild and be the difference-maker in this matchup. But I actually think this game comes down to who can win the matchup of Chris Johnson vs. 49ers rushing defense.

In looking at the matchup, it's certainly hard to bet against a guy like Johnson. I certainly don't doubt Chris Johnson's ability, but I also think some of his numbers can be questioned at least a little bit. For example, this past week he put up 228 yards...against the Jaguars. It's a great number, but it must be put in context. The two previous games he put up 128 yards in a 59-0 loss to the Patriots, and 34 yards in a 31-9 home loss to the Colts. The Patriots number is probably the most misleading given that it was 45-0 at the half. One might be able to infer that the Patriots were not exactly playing the toughest rush defense. I could be wrong, but when you lose by that matchup, I'm less inclined to be impressed by the numbers.

After the jump we look at the 49ers rush defense against quality running backs...

The 49ers rush defense has faced some solid running backs and done a fairly solid job for the most part. Here's a quick rundown of running back performances against the 49ers rush defense this season:

Player	Carries	Yards	YPC	Long
B. Wells	7	29	4.1	15
T. Hightower	8	15	1.9	6

J. Forsett	5	35	7	14
J. Jones	8	11	1.4	7

A. Peterson	19	85	4.5	35
C. Taylor	6	16	2.7	8

S. Jackson	23	79	3.4	15

M. Turner	22	97	4.4	33
J. Norwood	12	44	3.7	14

S. Slaton	18	67	3.7	31

J. Addai	20	62	3.1	13

This isn't exactly a scientific breakdown, but overall the 49ers have done a solid job in containing some quality running backs. Each player requires a bit of context, such as Michael Turner having three rushing touchdowns. However, if the 49ers can hold down Chris Johnson, I think things will be fine.

The 49ers certainly have the weapons and scheme on defense to do battle with Johnson. Obviously we know the players here. Patrick Willis, Michael Lewis, Aubrayo Franklin. Of course, the loss of Nate Clements will actually hurt a bit in the rush defense. Clements does a great job in open field tackles on running backs, so the team will have to overcome that. However, even without Clements, this is a swarming defense that is quick in attacking the ball-carrier.

So given all that, will the 49ers defense be able to take care of business this Sunday? Or do you think they can win even if Johnson runs wild? Feel free to throw out predictions on Johnson's performance if you'd like. Whatever his final yardage total, I think it will really come down to that yards per carry. If he's gashing the defense for 5 or 6 yards a carry, it could be a long day. But if he finishes with 100+ yards on 30+ carries, well then it's not as big a deal.

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Been saying it myself.

This is the only matchup I’m at all interested in. The game is all about Chris Johnson. I get the feeling however, if we stop CJ, Vince Young could surprise the 49ers, and that’s never a good thing. I get the feeling we were surprised in Atlanta.

You can never resist the game... nor could I... we're the same, so don't even try.

by Ninjames on Nov 5, 2009 10:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

But that's such a two-edged sword.

Yes, VY can surprise you. He once surprised the Hell out of the Giants, leading the team to a win it had no business owning. That was an insanely good surprise.

But then we also had the surprise of not wanting to go back into a game THAT YOU’RE WINNING after throwing an INT. That was NOT a good surprise.

Unfortunately, VY is streaky. If he has his head together, then yeah, watch out! But it’s also more than possible that his head won’t be together, in which case, WATCH OUT! doesn’t even begin to describe the pain he can inflict on his own teammates.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."

by DannoE on Nov 5, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Coming back to the point...

The question is… can the 49ers stop Chris Johnson while covering for a potential VY bootleg in the other direction. Because that is the play you will see ALL DAY LONG.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."

by DannoE on Nov 5, 2009 10:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't looking at it from any in-depth standpoint.

As far as Vince is concerned, anyway. It was just a gut feeling I had.

You can never resist the game... nor could I... we're the same, so don't even try.

by Ninjames on Nov 5, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering if the Titans try split the pursuit by running each to the opposite edge.

by bignerd on Nov 5, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Most of the time, yes, at least when VY is in the game.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."

by DannoE on Nov 6, 2009 4:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nate clements was probably as big an asset in the run game as any cb in the league. if you want to do an outside run, he shuts down his entire side of the feild. I bet Tennessee takes advantage of that. Expect a lot of outside runs, especially early in the game.

by hellaninersfan on Nov 5, 2009 10:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

They'll figure it out

With a back like Chris Johnson and the Niners being that much of a force against the run, you would think Vince Young is going to be asked to use a lot of play action. With that in mind, even that may not be a fool proof scheme because when it’s hard to figure out what’s coming at you like the Niners D has been doing, Young might be spending a lot of time looking for a 2nd, 3rd or 4th receiver. If it goes that far he’ll hopefully be on the turf by then. :)

by Mangoman1 on Nov 5, 2009 10:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

if we shut down CJ

who does vince have to throw to? maybe i’m missing something ( i havent watched alot of titans games this year). for once though i think the niners receiving core is much better than the guys we are facing.

on another note, i havent been to a game yet this year, but i’m going on sunday. i heard they added some new stuff at candlestick (food etc) anything i should look out for?

by pwarren85 on Nov 5, 2009 11:02 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to the game too this sunday with my son

We ALWAYS get the Garlic Fries. It’s a no brainer. There is enough garlic in one serving of garlic fries to keep your breath rancid for a week!! The game is gonna be great. I hate the traffic and the time it takes to get in and out of the Stick, but the game always makes it worth all the trouble. I have even gone to preseason games that were well worth the hassle of the trip from Sacramento. I always see a caravan of Niner fans heading down the highway and stopping at the Vista rest stop for a health break and just to mill around with other Niner fans comming from Sacramento and all points East! Niner fans are the best people to hang with !!

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on Nov 5, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is pure curiosity

Just wondering if this is a CA and/or west coast thing. What exactly is a “health break”?

by Sebaz49 on Nov 6, 2009 7:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Shutting down CJ is number one...

force TEN to put the ball in VY’s hands and make him win the game. Young has shown he can win games but he also can fold under adversity. Get him to make mistakes. SF did a heck of a job against Manning. Focus on stopping CJ and VY from scrabbling and force VY to make plays throwing the ball.

by shulkdog on Nov 5, 2009 11:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

No threat to pass

If the niners held Peterson, Slaton and Turner under 100 yards with Favre, Schaub and Ryan under center as a threat to throw then I can’t really see CJ getting more than them. I know VY is a threat to run and that is a change-up, but he’s proven a mediocre to poor passing threat over a couple of years. The niners will be keying up on the run and letting him have the whole field to pass. I’m not real worried VY will take advantage of that.

by NH49er on Nov 5, 2009 12:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I can see our DB's having a big game

This would be the perfect game for our db’s to jump a few routes and maybe get a pick or 2. VY isnt the best at reading the defense, so if the Niners can get pressure on obvious passing downs, we can maybe get a pick or 2. I think if Smith can just take what the defense is giving him, and Gore has a good game, the Niners are gonna win. Besides, the Niners have never lost when I have gone to the game including the Niners-Giants playoff game when they came back from 21 points down I was there with my wife!! Lets hope my streak continues!!

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on Nov 5, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I definitely agree with this assessment

The Niner’s defense has been great at stopping the run this year but I am still nervous about Chris Johnson coming to town. He has that incredible homerun ability where the Niners can stuff him for 9 out of 10 plays, but if someone misses an assignment or a tackle on that 10th play your looking at a 100 yard day for Johnson. It’s not just about playing great run defense, it’s about playing great run defense on every down.

I think this defense is capable of keeping Johnson in check, but I will be on pins and needles every time he touches the ball.

by DiegoAsFan on Nov 5, 2009 12:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

the unlikely thing

it seems to me that the niners can stop or control anything that is going to be the obvious problem in the game, (AP,matt ryan, andre johnson,peyton) its the unlikely people to that end up beating us. allthough brett farve is who he is, at the time he was just a game manager until that final throw. micheal turner was having a down year until we let him score 3 td’s, slaton and shaub became best buds against us, then addai becomes the only one with a td pass. so, yes we need to stop johnson, but even more we need to keep contain on the outsides and make sure we dont let VY get into a rythum. go niners and try not to just focus on one thing, be ready for everything

by david w gibson on Nov 5, 2009 2:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

As a Titans fan i'd like to offer my insight.

This is the only matchup that matters, obviously. However, don’t be so sure that Chris Johnson will be easily stopped. You haven’t faced any QBs that are a legitimate threat to run the ball. VY is. That will make defenders hesitate on draw plays, which CJ has been absolutely LETHAL on. Hold your breath every time he gets a hand off from shotgun, because if you look at the season, every time he breaks a big one, it’s a shotgun draw.

Ain't no time for hesitatin'
All you got to do is groove

by BonzosMontreaux on Nov 5, 2009 3:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Pretty sure that is on tape

So you can bet that Patric Willis will be there waiting for him when he draws.

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on Nov 5, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

FO had a comment of CJ this week

he is an EXTREME boom and bust back. More so even than Gore this year.

Exactly half of Johnson’s carries amount to a zero-sum game: 17 no-gainers, 20 losses, and 22 short plunges add up to essentially no rushing yards on 59 carries. That means Johnson averages just under 14 yards per carry on his “productive” runs of three or more yards. That’s boom-or-bust taken to unheard-of levels.

The niners have a good run defense, but it’s just average at preventing long (10+ yard runs), so I suspect he might break one or two. I am no defensive coordinator, but I would have Willis spy Vince Young, and hope the secondary can keep CJ in the park when he gets to the 2nd level.

The key to this game is whether Alex Smith and co. can put up some points against the Titans bad pass defense.

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Nov 5, 2009 3:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Additionally

It seems that the Niners have allowed about 3 total plays the entire season to 30+ yard runs. Without those runs, we would be even ebtter, but I guess can’t be better than #1 for YPC allowed.

But it took a runner like Slaton, Peterson, or Turner to bust out those runs. So I will give Johnson a 35 yard run, but other than that, he will be like all of the other RB’s, but slightly better because he is Chris Johnson. So, 1 carry for 35 yards, and 19 carries for 60 yards, so that’s 20 carries for 95 yards. Actually pretty impressive compared to the rest of the stats with the other RB’s, but not enough to help Titans win, even if those yards include 2 TD’s.

by fortyniners on Nov 5, 2009 8:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Chris Johnson is one key, the 49ers offense limiting turnovers is the other.

by bignerd on Nov 5, 2009 10:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

TACKLING

that’s the key. CJ will get to the edge, as will VY. Can we tackle him 1 on 1? Even if we’re talking edge rushing, and yes we have been a physical inside team…the best part of our run defense is that the D-line occupies blockers, eats up doubles, and allows the LB’s to roam. That means we should have adequate tacklers like P.Willis and T.Spikes available outside to make plays on the edge rushes.

Our goal has always been to make teams throw on us. They will have studied tape on the run to make sure they can stop this, albeit different, running attack.

I agree this is the time for our DB’s to have a big day for turnovers. I only hope this time, Dre Bly tucks the ball.

by Tre9er on Nov 6, 2009 6:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs