Strength of Schedule
by 49ers Rule on Nov 6, 2009 7:48 AM PST
6 comments
The 49ers have had a few heart-breaking losses so far this year. I know I for one am ready to see them get rolling and start making a playoff run. One interesting thing I was thinking about was the caliber of the teams these losses came from. With the exception of the Atlanta game, you have to still feel pretty good about coming within 4 points of a 7-0 Colts, 7-1 Vikings, and 5-3 Texans. So I looked into it a little further and the 49ers remaining schedule does bode pretty well for an improved record. Details after the jump...
So far this year the 49ers opponents have combined for a 30-22 record (a 0.577 win percentage). The 49ers remaining opponents have combined for a 25-39 record (a 0.391 win percentage).
Using this data: CBS Sports - 2009 Strength of Schedule, their schedule for the first 8 games would have ranked 6th most difficult heading into the season. The remaining schedule would rank easiest in the league by a large margin.
Even more interesting, if you exclude the Rams from both numbers, you would have a 0.659 for the first half (off the charts difficult) and a 0.428 for the second half (still tied for 3rd easiest).
The important thing to remember is that strength of schedule is a single snapshot in time and it is constantly changing. Teams like the Cardinals, Packers, and Eagles could come on really strong in the second half and change this.
If you extrapolated the current win percentage over all 17 games, the 49ers opponents would combine for a 0.474 win percentage which would place them around 21st based on the preseason numbers.
Basically, lots of math and numbers to say that the rest of the season projects to be a whole heck of a lot easier than the beginning of the season.
I get the general feeling that the 49ers will at least come away with wins at Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, Detroit and St. Louis. If they pick up one win between Chicago, Green Bay and Arizona, they will be 9-7 and right in line for NFC West champs. The fact that they will end up 5-1 or 6-0 in the division certainly doesn't hurt either...
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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This week says it all
I firmly believe a loss this week ruins playoff hopes
"Optimist Prime"
"Child Please" -Ochocinco
by rlott#42 on Nov 6, 2009 10:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely, and a win this week does nothing to the playoff hopes
Next week a loss hurts playoff hopes and a win really helps them.
You have been DFiBrillated.
by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 6, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Check out this post I made
the website already calculated the remaining strength of schedule, additionally they looked at the remaining teams to play and adjusted for the records of opponents played.
Important to keep in mind that even though the 49ers have easy schedule, it’s all relative to how the Cardinals play too, which have an easy schedule. Unless we should look at some other teams and somehow think we can get a wildcard if the Cards get the division.
But you make a good point too that all of these reflect the situation at any one time. Even though are remaining opponents are mostly similar to the Cardinals remaining opponents, it doesn’t mean the results will be the same and the teams will be playing the same at the time. Plus the game location (Home and Away) differs aswell.
by fortyniners on Nov 6, 2009 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bottom line
there’s 9 games left…we need to win a minimum of 6 to make it in. Should we go 6-3 for the rest of the season A.) We will have to make a stronger run than we have these past 7 games, B.) That will only give us a 9-7 record…so… C.) We would have to hope that the Cardinals hit a losing streak. In other words, we will have to play elite level of ball for the rest of the stretch and hope the Cards don’t.
by Drew K on Nov 6, 2009 7:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
9-7 won't do it unless we win the division
Which means sweeping AZ and hoping they lose two other games. I don’t see us being a 9-7 wild card due to two factors: the second place team in the Easy may win 10 games and there’s no guarantee we’d win a tiebreaker if they too finish 9-7; #2, we lose any head to head tie breaker with Atlanta.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
by SpurredOn on Nov 7, 2009 3:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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