The 49ers are coming up short on 3rd down

by urnext on Nov 6, 2009 11:11 AM PST Comment 21 comments

Anytime a team has lost 3 games in a row, fans can find lots of reasons why they aren't winning. It's no different with the 49ers 3 game losing streak. We could probably come up with a good size list of areas they've struggled, but the one area that really stands out to me is their failures on 3rd down. Right now the 49ers are only converting on 28.26% of their 3rd down attempts. That's all the way down at 29th in the NFL. I know no one is going to confuse the 49ers with the Colts, but for a team with playoff aspirations, that isn't going to cut it. Of course, we all know the strength of this 49ers team is their defense. Surely they're doing a better job at stopping teams on the other side of the ball. Well they are, but not by much. Opposing teams have converted on 40.19% of their 3rd down attempts, which is good enough for only 25th in the NFL. This stat more than any other really surprises me. The 49ers have the top ranked run defense and the 16th ranked pass defense, so it's not like there's an area that they really struggle. So why do the 49ers have the 25th worst defense when it comes to stopping teams on 3rd down? Out of curiosity, I decided to list where every team ranks on offense and defense on 3rd down, and then averaged the two out to see where they rank. Here's the list:

Teams Offense Defense Average

Saints 5 1 3
Ravens 3 4 3.5
Dolphins 2 6 4
Giants 7 2 4.5
Vikings 4 7 6.5
Packers 10 10 10
Patriots 6 14 10
Cowboys 14 8 11
Broncos 17 7 12
Colts 1 26 13.5
Eagles 22 5 13.5
Cardinals 26 3 14.5
Texans 19 12 15.5
Lions 16 16 16
Bengals 12 21 16.5
Titans 18 17 17.5
Chargers 8 28 18
Jets 23 13 18
Steelers 9 27 18
Bears 15 24 19.5
Panthers 21 18 19.5
Redskins 28 11 19.5
Seahawks 20 19 19.5
Falcons 11 31 21
Jaguars 13 30 21.5
Bills 30 15 22.5
Raiders 27 20 23.5
49ers 29 25 27
Browns 31 23 27
Buccaneers 25 29 27
Chiefs 32 22 27
Rams 24 32 28

Only the Rams are doing worse than the 49ers. And when you look at the teams that are surrounding the 49ers, well they aren't the teams they want to be associated with. If they want to start getting more games in the win column, the 49ers have to start doing a better job on 3rd down.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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To be honest its not 3rd downs, i’m worried about its the 1st 2 downs that get us there that i am worried about. nor is anyone talking about.

someone said a long time ago once we announced to be a run heavy team “say hello to alot of 3 n outs” so i guess that has came true.

by whitemike1644 on Nov 6, 2009 11:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

If we were to get 3-4 yards on every 1st and 2nd down, 3rd downs would be much more manageable. The problem is that we are getting a 1 yard rush on 1st then a 1 yard rush on 2nd and then we are in 3rd and long. Or we have a 1 yard rush on 1st and an incomplete pass and then we are in 3rd and long

by renke81 on Nov 6, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not just better performances on 1st and 2nd down will help 3rd down be more manageable and successful, the entire offensive philosophy depends upon production on 1st and 2nd down. 3rd and long this offense has already lost the battle.

by bignerd on Nov 6, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

An interesting question on the defense's inability to get off the field

I’d like to hear Danny’s take.

You have been DFiBrillated.

by Dubs fan in Boston on Nov 6, 2009 12:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I believe...

that the reason our defense can’t get off the field is because they are on the field too long. I think it is a circular issue. When they only get 3 plays to rest after being on the field for a little while, then they are under performing because they are exhausted. Someone should take a look at their 3rd down efficiency in the first two-three drives of the game compared to the rest of the game. I guarantee you that it would be much much lower.

Against the Colts. Our defense stopped them so many times. The problem is the number of chances that the Colts had. They kept hitting us over and over and eventually we were going to break. Our offense has to stay on the field longer.

by renke81 on Nov 6, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting question

I didn’t want to spend the amount of time needed to find out their 3rd down efficiency on the first 3 drives of every game, but their is a stat that relates to your question that’s easy to find. What has been the 49ers average time of possesion? For the season they’re averaging 28:88 compaired to 31:12 for their opponents. So while it’s true the 49ers defense is spending more time on the field than the offense, it’s only by a little over 2 minutes. So that might be part of the problem, but I have to believe there’s more to it than that.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 6, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Playcalling

is a factor to consider in this equation. On one of the last chances we had…Jimmy Raye sent in a FB dive play on a 2nd and 10. When you call a dive even when a halfback is running the ball on a 2nd and 10, 9 times out of 10 you’re looking at a 3rd and long. The coaches keep talking about getting some situations where it’s 3rd and short or managable…well calling FB dives on 2nd and 10 certainly won’t help your situation out. And how about getting some 1st downs on 2nd or 1st down..why does everything have to be so methodical with him? How many times has he swung for the fence. In all of Crabtree’s and Davis’ catches, how many times has he sent them on an actual fly where they are the primary WR? ZERO

That’s just one example of many where Raye’s screwed the pooch on the play calling. Like urnext said, there’s any factors but in my opinion this is the primary factor

by Drew K on Nov 6, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the stats may be a bit misleading

I’m curious as to the defense’s third down numbers before the colts game. Manning made a lot of conversions that day, but the defense still played fantastic football, keeping Manning out of the endzone. I’m wondering how much the numbers from last Sunday inflated that percentage.

by Kaizre on Nov 6, 2009 1:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Colts converted 8 of their 19 3rd downs

That’s a 42.11% average which is just barely above the 49ers 40.19% season average. Looks like the Colts didn’t inflate that number much at all. At the most the 49ers were at 39% coming into the game. Better than 40% but still not good.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 6, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

It felt like the 9ers gave up a lot more than that. Pretty good against Manning.

by Kaizre on Nov 7, 2009 1:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Level of competition has played a factor

The defense has played a lot of good to great passing offenses who by nature excel at 3rd down conversions and attack the 49ers defensive weakness: Cardinals, Vikings, Falcons, Texans and Colts. Considering the 49ers pass defense is statistically average you can see how that that 3rd down conversion rate is a bit inflated compared to the rest of the league.

Run oriented offenses should play more into the 49ers wheelhouse helping the defense to get off the field and lower that 3rd down conversion rate.

by bignerd on Nov 6, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's what the defense has done in those games

Cardinals 4/14
Seahawks 4/14
Vikings 10/20
Rams 5/16
Falcons 8/14
Texans 6/13
Colts 8/19

Not surprisingly the defense has done great in the 3 games they won 29.55% and bad in the 4 games they lost 48.48%.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 6, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think this does tell a good bit of the story. The Niners give up a LOT of 3rd down conversions. They tend to rush only three or four guys on third downs of more than five or six yards and it seems to burn them just about every time. One thing that may improve that is that they now play a more shifty style, which tends to confuse the opposing offense. Hopefully that is starting to turn things around.

by Mangoman1 on Nov 6, 2009 1:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The NY Giants just lost threee in a row

and they are ranked #4 (7 offense- 2 defense) on your list.

Teams win (or lose) when they make the big plays (or don’t) at the end of the game.

For example, Dre Bly dropped an easy INT at the end of the Viking game. He catches that ball, the 49ers win.
He didn’t make ‘the big play.’ Conversely, a few minutes later, Brett Favre made one of his greatest passes at the end of the game, to win the game for Minnesota.

Favre made the big play. Bly didn’t.
Minnesota wins. The 49ers lose.

Same last week in Indy. The 49ers pretty much outplayed the Colts for most of the game. At the end, however, the Colts made a few more big plays than did the 49ers.

by GeoMak on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Giants also won 5 straight games playing the NFL cupcakes.

It padded their stats too.

by bignerd on Nov 6, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

I noticed that too.

Outside of Dallas (who was struggling back then) they beat four of the worst teams in the NFL (Wash., TB, KC & Oakland).

They were being touted as one of the best teams in the NFL at 5-0.

Now, having lost three straight games to good teams (NO. AZ. & Philadelphia) . . . not so much.

The fact is the the 49ers have lost three straight to teams equally as good as did NY (Atlanta, Houston & Indy).

Right now, the 5-3 Giants aren’t much better than the 3-4 49ers, if at all.

by GeoMak on Nov 6, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't saying that success on 3rd down is the best indicator for success in the NFL

Only that for a team that has playoff asperations, they aren’t doing very well in this key statistical catagory. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that of the bottom 10 teams, only the Falcons have a winning record. And of the top 10 teams, only the Dolphins have a losing record, and just barely at 3-4. It’s just an area that the 49ers need to improve.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 6, 2009 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand what you're saying

and I don’t disagree.

But the simple fact is this:
Few teams dominate the league during the year.
And while some teams, some times dominate an individual game ( like when Atlanta beat SF 45-10), most games go down to the wire in the NFL.

And when they do, you could probably criticize some ‘stats’ for BOTH teams.

The difference between winning and losing, more often than not in the NFL, is what I said earlier: Who made the big plays at the end of the game?

A perfect example is last years Super Bowl.
Big Ben drove his team down the field in the final 2 minutes to win the game for the Steelers. He and his offense could not be stopped.

Conversely, Ken Whisenhunt was so upset with the way his defense was often out-of-position and unable to stop the Steelers on that final drive, that he fired DC Clancy Pendergast shortly thereafter (he wasn’t fired just for that final drive, but that certainly didn’t help his job security).

The only ‘stat’ that mattered from last years Super Bowl is that the Steelers made the big plays at the end, and the Cardinals gave up the big plays.

That’s all.

by GeoMak on Nov 7, 2009 7:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

But in the 4th quarter of the Colts game the 49ers drove down to around the 30 before taking a delay of game penalty and a sack, forcing a punt. If they convert on 4th down that drive keeps going and maybe they score a TD to take the lead. You could even say a big play was needed to convert on 3rd down so the two could be related. On the Colts last drive the 49ers needed to stop them to get the ball back, but the Colts converted on a couple of 3rd downs and were able to run out the clock. The defense needed to keep them from converting on 3rd to have a chance to win and they couldn’t. Sustained drives and gettting opposing teams offenses off the field play a big part in winning games. In every game their are also some key big plays that have to be made, so you’re also right. And their are probably other areas that are important as well. That’s why I said at the beggining of the post that, “Anytime a team has lost 3 games in a row, fans can find lots of reasons why they aren’t winning.” This was just one area that stuck out to me.

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 7, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I ment to say, "if they convert on 3rd down" not 4th

Don't trust this guy. He lies.

by urnext on Nov 7, 2009 8:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Again, you are right

3rd downs are the key downs, because unlike 1st or 2nd downs, they determine ‘possession.’

My point is this: If a team ‘sucks’ on a 3rd down in the first or second (or third quarter), who cares?

Fourth quarter. Big difference.
That’s because the outcome of games is usually determined by who makes the big plays (3rd down or otherwise) at the end of the games.

I can’t tell you ONE ‘stat’ (3rd down or otherwise) from last years Super Bowl. Not one.

I basically remember three things from that game:

1. Harrison’s 100 yard INT TD return at the end of the 1st half.
2. Fitzgeralds 64 yard TD with 2:37 left in the game to give Arizona the lead.
3. Big Ben’s TD winning drive at the end of the game (and Arizona’s inability to stop him) that secured the victory for Pittsburgh.

It’s big plays at the end of the game that most often determines victory or defeat in the NFL.

by GeoMak on Nov 7, 2009 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs