A little fantasy help from you guys? Garcon or Crabtree?
by StereoPete on Dec 11, 2009 12:43 PM PST
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PrintFooch's Note: Since Andrew won't be able to post a fantasy post this week, consider this an official FanPost for discussing the weekend's fantasy football action.
Hey everyone - just wanted your take on this fantasy call I need to make this week... Pierre Garcon (IND) or our own Michael Crabtree?
Most recommendations I have seen have them listed fairly equally (targets, receptions etc..). I am NOT in a PPR league, so only YDS and TDs count.. Garcon is the #3 WR red zone target in the NFL and has performed well.
My concern is this: IND is up against the #2 pass defense in the NFL, and rumors are that Manning will get rested at least part of each of the rest of the regular season games....which makes Garcon more risky.
On the other side, Crabtree is up against the #30 pass defense, but will likely be covered by Rodgers-Cromartie, and an AZ defense looking to avenge the Week 1 shellacking we handed them.
Thoughts? Help a brother out?
Pete
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.
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Fantasy Football
First off, Andrew won’t have his weekly fantasy football post this week, so let’s use this as a sort of on-going fantasy discussion.
I’d say go with Crabtree. I think he brings much more fantasy upside. Garcon is at best the #2 guy, and more likely #3. Crabtree and Davis are the two main guys and Crabtree brings more to the table than Garcon.
thanks Fooch
I’ve been scarce around here these past few weeks with travel, Holidays, sick babies and all.. Thanks for the quick response.
I see where you are at with Garcon. But with Gonzales out, Garcon has been a strong #2 behind Wayne (who gets blanketed with coverage) and I’m more concerned about the Manning “rest” theory swirling…
Garcon/Collie
Garcon loses catches to Austin Collie (on top of Wayne, Clark and Addai), so definitely have to keep that in mind.
by David Fucillo on Dec 11, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions
What are your thoughts on
Arizona’s D? Ranked #30, and Alex has been hot lately. You think MC has a breakout week this week finally?
Not if...
… ARZ sticks DRC on Crabtree exclusively. I’d expect Davis or Morgan to have a big day, but Crabtree is quite a bit more iffy. DRC may make some mental mistakes, but his physical ability hides A LOT of them. Crabtree is still learning on the job, so it’s hard to know if he’s got a technical advantage over DRC or not. DRC definitely has the physical advantage.
DRC is awful covering a zone. He turns into a pylon, he’s feet literally stop moving as the WR just works his way around him.
Which is why...
… all my comments were made assuming he’d be playing man on Crabtree, hence the “ARZ sticks DRC on Crabtree exclusively” bit at the beginning of my comment. Being a corner who has technical lapses contributes to being a poor zone corner. I know that’s his weakness.
I know...
… SF used to do it with Clements and Harris, but I think Arizona’s defense would be really solid playing man with DRC while keeping zones on the other half of the field. I wonder if that’s something they’ve tried?
I'd like to ask their bloggers but only after the MNF game
It doesn’t make sense to me either. It cost them the SB, it cost them in the game against Tenn. It’s so obvious a difference in DRC and their secondary between man and zone coverage you’d think they would come up with something.
Dallas Clark is gonna be the #1 target this week in the red zone
Crabtree if he gets into the endzone once will almost surely put up better numbers
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 11, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
That's the question -
WILL he? He’s only been there ONCE in 7 weeks. Will it happen again this week is the big question.
This is easy
Crabtree is better option. The Cardinals are pretty good at slowing the down the 49ers TE passing attack therefore the offense will have lean more heavily on the WR position . . . and we all know the 49ers want to pass the ball a lot. Also, the Cardinals corners haven’t played good football.
Garcon is a secondary option and facing a very good passing defense. Denver has the ability to beat the Colts offense in both the pass rush and secondary coverage so the percentages say the Colts are unlikely have a good passing day (at least for their standards). The Colts might exploit one particular match up but no one outside the Colts right now knows what that match up might be.
No Andrew this week. That’s right, I got his Fleaflicker playoff spot :)~
Ok...playing devil's advocate...
…because, again, everything I look at puts the two WRs neck-and-neck for this week…
If Garcon is “a secondary target,” why has he scored double-digit fantasy points 4 weeks running, while Crabtree has only hit double digits in 1 game so far this season (13 against Green Bay)? FYI – the 2nd best FP week he’s had was against Seattle (6 FPs)…
Again, just playing devil’s advocate to get more perspective…
Pete
Solid Point
Is the talent difference between Garcon and Crabtree that great? Have to believe the law of averages is going to kick in at some point. Garcon is going to have an off week and Crabtree is going to have an above average week, this week looks like a good candidate.
You never know how things are going to turn out. I don’t think Garcon has much upside this week but history suggests he would have some production this week. Crabtree hasn’t had consistent production but his match up presents plenty of upside for a big week.
Another aspect is how many points each offenses needs to produce to win the game. In almost every case you have to say the 49ers need to push the passing game for a full 60 minutes. If the Colts jump out to an early lead the game plan against Denver will be to slow the offense down since it’s unlikely the Denver offense can play catch up. If that’s the case you as a fantasy owner are hoping Garcon cashes in one of those early Colts TDs, if not things don’t look good for the rest of the game.
It's such a pain
deciding these things, isn’t it? I mean, it’s not like I am trying to decide between Andre Johnson and Crabs… It’s 2 very closely ranked players…
And just a quick correction of your 2nd paragraph: Crabtree has been incredibly consistent producing 5 or 6 points. 4 points once. 13 points once. Otherwise it’s been 5 or 6.
I’ve been playing fantasy so many years now I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t care. If I’m right than I’m right, I’m am idiot than it’s fine. It’s such a better place where you no longer care to sweat a match up or kick yourself later. Fantasy football is probably 60% luck and 40% skill. Usually the difference is what offensive player gets the play calls in the red zone, which I found to be fairly random.
If I could just get to that place on HowTheyScored . . .
LOL!
This is my first year. To say I really “care” would be an overstatement, but I would certainly like to win….
We’ll see how the news plays out the next couple days. I think Manning needs to play all of the Denver game because they can clinch home field this week. Once that happens, he’ll probably play the first series or two, then sit. That makes Crabtree a much better option for me…plus the 9ers are against STL and DET :)
My first year as well...
and I must admit I love it and am hooked. Am in league Niners Nation 5 and playing first play-off game this weekend. I have Garcon in my team but am benching him in favour of Meachem as Denver defense will make it tough for him this weekend – especially if,as you say, Manning will not play all of the game.
I would play Crabtree if I was you for same reasons as Fooch states above.
Last year Fooch did a summary of all the fantasy leagues Niners Nation ran, who was doing well and who wasn’t etc, but haven’t seen that this year. Would be good to see how the other leagues are doing and if the likes of wjackalope and howtheyscored are winning as usual!
by Ninerfromacrossthepond on Dec 12, 2009 9:06 AM PST up reply actions
I picked Garcon
the main reason is Peyton… We all know A. Smith has been playing well lately but Peyton can spread it around. If the seconday focuses on wayne and clark garcon will catch a td crabtree will get yards but unlikely he will catch a td with AZ’s cb…
Joe and Steve were under the same system for years... don't expect Smith to be super so soon.
Crabtree
Garcon is the third option in Indy. He’ll bust out big games then leave you hanging for a game. Crabtree hasn’t had any huge games yet, but he’s been very consistent and his yardage number are consistently improving.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Is this really all you have?
If you needed WR help why didn’t you pick up that guy from WAS? or Robert Meachem? or a RB (Ganther is starting for WAS).
Even T.O. suddenly became fantasy relevant about 3 weeks ago (I picked him up after his breakout performance and he’s been pretty good).
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
Devin Thomas is the only one left in my league
But he will likely be against Oakland’s lockdown corner so kinda fruitless there. But my lack of depth is at RB. I’m just lucky Moats got put on waivers when Slaton got the starting job back for a week before getting injured. Saved my butt. The highest scoring back I could pick up is Mike Tolbert lol
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 12, 2009 3:33 AM PST up reply actions
I doubt it
I’m sure Nnamdi will be on Santana Moss
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 13, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
Yes...this is what I have....
My WR corps:
WR1 – Wes Welker
WR2 – Steve Smith (NYG)
WR3 – Pierre Garcon / Michael Crabtree
Let’s not even talk RB’s…mine were Michael Turner (INJ) and Ronnie Brown (IR)…so I have had to dance in that category for sure.
I guess I'm just an old school guy (even though this is my first year playing Fantasy football)
All season I’ve started 3RBs (no matter what).
I lead my league in scoring and I’m the No.1 Seed.
You could have picked up Snelling for Turner and Ricky Williams for Ronnie Brown.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 13, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
Crabtree
Hoping to get with a trend I’ve got going recently. I think Crabtree has 4 catches, for 40 yards and 0 TDs this week, so bench him. Garcon has looked awesome in his last few games; In his last 4 he’s got 2 TDs and 2 100-yard games.
Go with Garcon, unfortunately. Crabtree will be held in check this MNF.
(now, if I say what I really think it won’t happen)
Alex Smith may have been the #1 overall pick but he still can’t tell why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch.
by Andrew Davidson on Dec 12, 2009 8:29 PM PST reply actions
I think I'm going with Garcon today...
Manning will play the whole game trying to lock up home field advantage. Wayne and Addai will draw primary coverage, leaving Garcon a great option.
Quick correction for everyone: Garcon is WR2 on the Indy depth chart, and has been a primary target 4 weeks running.
Simply looking at realistic production, Crabtree isn’t a good option this week. Next week maybe…
Should have started Crabtree
Garcon: 2 Rec for 39 yards.
Denver’s pass defense was pretty good, wasn’t it? You are really going to hate me knowing I had Dallas Clark who Manning decided to pass to in the red zone.
Never pick a fantasy player simply because he’s been on a streak. If anything a streak indicates on upcoming off game.
For Crabtree, I expect 70 yards and TD versus the Cards. He might get two if the play calling falls his way.
Not for Fred Davis
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 13, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
So what?
Never pick a fantasy player simply because he’s been on a streak. If anything a streak indicates on upcoming off game.
He’s on a streak.
I picked him up and he rewarded me with 17 pts.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 13, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
I see
Yep, he is on a TD streak. Than again who else do the Skins have to turn to? He’s probably option A), B) and C).
That 2nd year WR is good too
And Santana Moss is not really that bad.
The redskins aren’t such a bad team dude.
It’s just that there has been ZERO continuity.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 14, 2009 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
The problem with picking any WR on the Colts
is that they have no clear #1 guy. Each of them will have good numbers in a season but their per game statistics fluctuate wildly.
Yes Drew K, Tim Tebow will get picked in the first round.
Reggie Wayne is the No.1
BUT if teams focus too much on him Manning will just throw the other way…
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 13, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
;)
Told you Dallas Clark would be the RZ target this week
Gimme 1 round!
by ItBurnzWhenIP on Dec 13, 2009 6:20 PM PST up reply actions
You did call it.
How did you know? I can never figure out when a team is going to target their TE in the end zone.
I'm in the finals!
Simply destroyed my opponent I had Drew Brees, Thomas Jones, Ryan Grant, Quinton Ganther, Vincent Jackson, Derrick Mason, Dallas Clark, Pack D, Shayne Graham. 5 of which gave me 20 or more points! Yes!
Congratulations
I will go 3-0 in the first round of the playoffs this week if Alex Smith and Frank Gore can score a combined 30 pts.
It’s a long shot, but even if I lose I’ll still be alive and well in my two other leagues.
What we've got here is a failure to communicate.
by SportsChicken on Dec 14, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
Closing it out - I won, even though I should've started Crabtree...
Ended up winning my week even though I sat Crabtree AND Ganther (Who I picked up just to have depth at RB)
I’m in the semi-finals this week and my opponent has Manning (I have Brees). I’m hoping Manning sits most of his game…
Thanks for the input guys… it really was a toss-up and I picked wrong, but won anyway. :)
Great job to Bignerd for calling 70/TD for Crabtree… if you can keep that crystal ball working that well, you could make a LOT of $$!
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